tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post5219913648777834139..comments2024-03-29T07:42:16.684-05:00Comments on Bayou Renaissance Man: Autonomous vehicles - blessing, curse, or something in between?Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10595089829300831372noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-86234541708112367022017-05-25T19:06:42.373-05:002017-05-25T19:06:42.373-05:00for shared cars to be successful, it's going t...for shared cars to be successful, it's going to need to be private companies doing this (ala Zip Car) so that they can refuse serviceto people who abuse things (leave the cars a mess, etc). Such companies may end up merging or setting up cross-company shares (think the equivalent of cell phone roaming)<br /><br />But it's not going to be something setup and run by governments, so I'm really not worried about them requiring it.<br /><br />People aren't going to jump on the 'new greatness' if it doesn't suit them, the slow uptake in electric cars is a perfect example. For some people, they are the best thing ever, but those folks usually have multiple vehicles and use the electric for the commute, frequently with their job/office providing recharging.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084309137541367977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-43880170260807374782017-05-25T18:58:04.084-05:002017-05-25T18:58:04.084-05:00Since they will probably only roll them out in big...Since they will probably only roll them out in big cities, that is true. However, as they found out when Trump was elected, there are a lot of places that are not big cities.<br />Who knows. They may do something stupid like the Cash for Clunkers program when they start rolling them out, just to sucker, um, pull people in.LindaGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12203719919661519350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-63472746638049417902017-05-25T18:24:41.434-05:002017-05-25T18:24:41.434-05:00@LindaG, in places like New York, that's likel...@LindaG, in places like New York, that's likely to be electricity (short ranges, lots of stop-and-go), a bit harder for them to tax moreUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084309137541367977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-24891192610779522952017-05-25T18:10:13.037-05:002017-05-25T18:10:13.037-05:00And undoubtedly raise the tax on the type of fuel ...And undoubtedly raise the tax on the type of fuel used as well.LindaGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12203719919661519350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-71653069648801704362017-05-25T10:56:51.286-05:002017-05-25T10:56:51.286-05:00They would have to figure out how to tax those aut...<i>They would have to figure out how to tax those autonomous vehicles to recover the lost revenue.</i><br /><br />Their attempts to regulate CO2 and penalize those who produce it prove that they've figured out how to tax air (it's just a matter of implementing it in such a way that the people don't lynch them.)<br /><br />Taxing autonomous vehicles will be child's play. "Charge per mile traveled" most likely, since they'd have all of the tools needed to track it. They could even vary the rates based on the type of road.Feather Bladehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16295997298154977506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-49324510968300075162017-05-24T17:34:25.662-05:002017-05-24T17:34:25.662-05:00"I don't think the state and local govern..."I don't think the state and local governments will ALLOW it to happen, and for only one reason: They'd lose all revenue from traffic and parking tickets. Mark D."<br /><br />The communities of NJ would go bankrupt (NOT AN EXAGGERATION!), as they acquire a significant portion of their operating funds through this means.<br /><br />They would have to figure out how to tax those autonomous vehicles to recover the lost revenue.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00722792638246578812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-71470841153650974452017-05-24T16:02:22.162-05:002017-05-24T16:02:22.162-05:00Autonomous cars? We'll see. I can tell you a f...Autonomous cars? We'll see. I can tell you a few things for certain sure:<br /><br />Senior citizens will cheerfully accept an autonomous, self-driving car rather than give up their driver's license, and that gives the government one certain inroad to getting people to use the autonomous car - clamp down on seniors that are marginally able to handle today's traffic situations.<br /><br />I'd take one in a heartbeat. I hate driving in traffic, and at the outset autonomous cars will be given preference over anything with a lunatic behind the wheel. Just tell me how many homicidal or suicidal or just plain crazy-stupid drivers you see during rush hour in a major city. Add to that the times I'm down at the bar and would like to have another 3 or 4 shots, but can't because I'm driving, and there you go.<br /><br />When it gets to the point where everyone is either forced to have an autonomous car, you'll see motorcycle riders protesting. I'll probably be one of them.<br />WL Emeryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00092583484828593165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-41578689907138482872017-05-24T15:53:34.123-05:002017-05-24T15:53:34.123-05:00Very good point, Clinton J.
Ford is lost if they ...Very good point, Clinton J.<br /><br />Ford is lost if they replaced their CEO for that.LindaGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12203719919661519350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-19589216850166958252017-05-24T13:56:14.916-05:002017-05-24T13:56:14.916-05:00I am enormously skeptical about autonomous cars. ...I am enormously skeptical about autonomous cars. The easy problems are easy (and have been solved, allowing flashy demos). The hard problems (including security) are hard. Some are <i>really</i> hard, and will kill people.<br /><br />At that point the issue will shift from technology and transportation policy to liability. I'm not worried about losing my insurance on my driver-required car, because the insurance companies will be VERY sure about their liability exposure before they pull that plug.<br /><br />But your point remains that companies are in a big hurry to do this. Ford just fired their CEO and replaced him with the head of their autonomous car unit:<br /><br />https://qz.com/988770/ford-f-is-ousting-ceo-mark-fields-and-doubling-down-on-self-driving-cars/<br /><br />Me, I think that the liability from autonomous car crashes will put at least one automobile manufacturer out of business. It might be a truck manufacturer, but it's hard to see that someone won't get taken down from this.<br /><br />Think Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns".Borepatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-90069741451703125452017-05-24T13:06:43.809-05:002017-05-24T13:06:43.809-05:00Actually, automated driving on freeways is probabl...Actually, automated driving on freeways is probably the easiest task.<br /><br />And the one that I suspect most people would be most willing to adopt. There have been many times on long trips where I needed to stop because I kept nodding off, or just needed a short mental break. And - especially when I was younger - many times I probably should have pulled off, but didn't. Or I arrived at a destination city mentally exhausted even before I had to deal with heavy traffic.<br /><br />Being able to have the car take over handling the long-and-grueling part of driving while letting the humans handle the challenging parts is a much easier sell than convincing people to give up control.Javaheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14922782424313956036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-70293487399795986212017-05-24T11:18:14.583-05:002017-05-24T11:18:14.583-05:00Autonomous driving on the freeway under normal con...Autonomous driving on the freeway under normal conditions is something that can be done pretty reliably today, and if this allows the person to do other things, than this will be a desirable feature (similar to how self-parallel parking is already).<br /><br />for Trucking, this is a large percentage of the miles driven, and if it can be done without the drivers hours-of-service limits kicking in so that a single driver can keep the rig rolling 20+ hours a day with a single driver (instead of requiring teams of drivers and being lucky to have it rolling 15 hours/day) there will be a lot of companies willing to invest in this.<br /><br />David Lang (commenting as unknown so that I can get the follow-up comments e-mailed to me)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084309137541367977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-42283665685969094592017-05-24T11:12:25.973-05:002017-05-24T11:12:25.973-05:00@Clinton J
the same can be said for many groups of...@Clinton J<br />the same can be said for many groups of people, including the mom transporting the soccer team of just a family of very young kids (with all their toys, supplies, etc)<br /><br />anyone who needs to have much equipment/stuff readily available will not go with a shared driverless car. The types of people who have heavy/messy stuff to move will not be welcome by the shared car companies.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084309137541367977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-7587555288482786232017-05-24T11:08:15.422-05:002017-05-24T11:08:15.422-05:00I'm an engineer at a company working on camera...I'm an engineer at a company working on cameras and ladar systems for autonomous cars, and while it's correct that there's a lot of companies pushing a lot of money into this tech, I don't think we will see widespread adoption of driverless cars in the next 10 years. There's still a ton of work to be done and really hard problems to solve. <br /><br />By the way, the idea that disagreeing with the hypothesis of rapid onset of driverless cars is somehow going against the consensus of capitalism ignores the fact that we see plenty of cases where the consensus is wrong and/or has the timing incorrect. The massive investments in fiber in the tech boom 20 years ago was a classic example. Good idea, but quite a bit too early, and a lot of companies and people lost their shirts.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00192121247584828848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-41806444039337871092017-05-24T10:45:09.644-05:002017-05-24T10:45:09.644-05:00I'll believe when somebody comes out with an a...I'll believe when somebody comes out with an affordable method to transport me and my recently shot, field dressed and dirty deer / wild pig / elk / moose that I just shot back to my house from a mile down that two track road out in the sticks. Furthermore, how is the farmer going to get his cow/pig/sheep etc to the butcher? <br /><br />It's one thing to transport people... but it's going to be another thing to tell the rednecks to give up their pick up trucks!Cjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04334100593630415472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-88728408843399116302017-05-24T08:29:36.984-05:002017-05-24T08:29:36.984-05:00Self driving trucks will start showing up fairly s...Self driving trucks will start showing up fairly soon, but they will not displace that many drivers.<br /><br />For one thing there is a significant shortage of drivers already, for another, long-distance highway driving is easy to automate. maneuvering around in narrow city streats, in parking lots, loading docks, etc is very hard to automate.<br /><br />What I expect to see happen is humans will still be in every big rig, but as passangers for most of the time, only taking control when conditions are bad (including at each endpoint)<br /><br />This will allow a given truck to be rolling a much higher percentage of the time, which translates into big bucks, but still with a person on board to provide security and handle the corner cases.<br /><br />shared car fleets have a good chance of impacting taxi companies in big cities, but much less chance of replacing commuter cars.<br /><br />on the other hand, personally owned self-driving cars can make big inroads in commuter traffic (allowing those who can afford them to do other things while on the road.<br /><br />I really don't think that insurance companies will drive traditional cars off the road, they aren't going to raise insurance costs from their current levels, they may very well give self-driving cars a discount, but that doesn't make traditional cars cost them more (and there is still competition in auto insurance, so as long as one company is willing to make less money per driver to get more money overall by getting more drivers, cost of policies will stay stable with respect to the costs of accidents)<br /><br />As for the point that in 1900 there were no cars in New York, and by 1920 there were no horses, once you look outside of the dense urban areas, you will see that horses stuck around as a common mode of transportation until after WWII<br /><br />David Lang (Commercial Class A Hazmat driver)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084309137541367977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-68720634045194654562017-05-24T08:25:10.978-05:002017-05-24T08:25:10.978-05:00re Anonymous' "bum rush":
Roger Zel...re Anonymous' "bum rush":<br /><br />Roger Zelazny and Fred Saberhagen did a book with a side note about automated trucks on dedicated superhighways. It included a bunch of teenagers across the country who'd started up outlaw clubs based on a peculiar kind of performance art.<br /><br />You wait by the side of the road. At a particular, carefully calculated moment, you cross the road. At a certain speed, possibly varying it at certain points. The oncoming truck doesn't stop--you are just a smidge too far away to justify that--but it slows down, then speeds up again when collision is no longer probable.<br /><br />Several miles down the road, another kid will do something similar. And another further along. And so on.<br /><br />Eventually you get "wave action" in the traffic. If you do it right, you can cause major traffic snarls, analogous to hammering in water pipes. Kind of like the variable speed limits they do now to smooth traffic on inner-city expressways, but used for evil.<br /><br />Hack the system without any access to it. Just to show you can.qthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09256501089151146138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-14718695403037134952017-05-24T08:19:25.417-05:002017-05-24T08:19:25.417-05:00I wonder how the automatic car idea will be accept...I wonder how the automatic car idea will be accepted by communities such as the Amish: plain folks living simply? Or by the aged widow(er) who has just barely mastered the touchscreen telephone technology. And don't get me started on the rural roads in my county of 11,000 citizens. Daunting situations for the adoption of auto-car technology.<br /><br />TCLeatherneckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00737350717312065042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-22290827309503768532017-05-24T07:50:24.387-05:002017-05-24T07:50:24.387-05:00I don't think it'll happen any time soon, ...I don't think it'll happen any time soon, I don't think the state and local governments will ALLOW it to happen, and for only one reason: They'd lose all revenue from traffic and parking tickets. After all, if your car is under some master controller, it can't speed, it can't change lanes without signalling, it can't park in a no-parking zone. Plenty of cities and towns make MAJOR money off of such violations (oh, they couch it as public safety, but it's really about revenue). For instance, New York City makes about half a BILLION a year in parking tickets. Just parking, not other traffic offenses like speeding.<br /><br />Governments don't like to lose revenue.<br /><br />Mark DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-50129599271567445262017-05-24T00:43:28.448-05:002017-05-24T00:43:28.448-05:00Autonomous cars.
Sure. You bet.
They'll wo...Autonomous cars. <br /><br />Sure. You bet. <br /><br />They'll work - sort of, within limits, under certain condiitons, within these parameters, etc. - in an environment suitably sterilized for them. Maybe in an extremely well structured "urban core" they'll kind of work, just as some cities provide public bicycles for rent in their "urban cores." In that same environment they may "kind of work" for some sort of delivery function; 30 years ago some large businesses and government agencies used automated - "automated," very decidedly not "autonomous" - mail carts, which, using very basic infrared technology, followed a painted trail on the floor, periodically stopping and "bonging" outside an office door to announce "the mail is here." Some offices were allowed 1-2 minutes to come retrieve their mail, others were important enough that the cart waited until someone pressed the "continue' button. <i>That'll</i> certainly work well at the corner of Third and Main; whatever locking compartments it may have will simply be sales opportunities for crowbar merchants.<br /><br />"Autonomous cars" is a reality-starved egghead's attempt to digitize what is entirely an analogue environment; Mother Nature is not nearly so accommodating as a well-lighted, perfectly straight hallway in a temperature and humidity controlled building with security officers at the front door. Or, even a perfcectly developed "urban core" with very precisely defined curbs, intersections and the like, much less any road surface with imperfections, or even texture variations or random adjacent obstacles like unmowed grass that's 12 inches taller than it was last month. They'll continue to work perfectly, I'm sure, in every George Lucas movie. Out here in Reality Land, NFW. <br /><br />Remember how, before skateboards "went pro" and became big money items, kids used to scrounge wheels from shopping carts to make them? Autonomous cars will become rolling store houses for the scavenging of various parts long before they develop sufficient utility to become widespread for their intended purpose. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-2332360989675358752017-05-23T23:48:14.522-05:002017-05-23T23:48:14.522-05:00Having recently worked on one of the big railroads...Having recently worked on one of the big railroads here in the U.S., I find that automation of train movement is still not fully functional. And that's with over thirty years of work in the development of, and twenty years of deploying such systems, on tracks mind you. I would not worry about true automatic pilots for cars for at least thirty years, if not more. Then trying to get people to adapt to such systems will take even longer. Let's not forget the laws will need to be changed at federal, state, and local levels, which can take even longer. And, you can always use a horse and buggy if things really get out of control. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-15908783692464972262017-05-23T23:26:17.494-05:002017-05-23T23:26:17.494-05:00This technology, like ALL technology is neutral, n...This technology, like ALL technology is neutral, neither good or bad.<br />It is the agenda of those who control the technology and those who<br />legislate that determines the good or bad that technology inflicts on<br />society. Those who legislate specifically seek that power because they<br />are almost invariably greedy, selfish and evil. They seek positions of<br />power because they lust for power.....for control over others. It is <br />THIS group that will generally determine how a technology is used and<br />who if any suffers or is deprived of rights. Till we find a way to keep<br />these petty tyrants seeking to become GRANDE tyrants out of office (or to<br />kill them outright when they display their true colors) there is no solution<br />to how technology is used as a weapon against us and our freedom. Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-55502051177423769892017-05-23T23:06:17.363-05:002017-05-23T23:06:17.363-05:00I, Robot.
A very good article and a lot of great...I, Robot.<br /><br /><br />A very good article and a lot of great comments.<br />LindaGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12203719919661519350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-21485039248795293962017-05-23T21:13:46.075-05:002017-05-23T21:13:46.075-05:00Cars will be programmed to stop so as to not hit /...Cars will be programmed to stop so as to not hit /injure a pedestrian. It will take only 2 nanoseconds until the "teens" know that they can bum rush a car and jack it. You will be immobilized and surrounded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-41884121448247100162017-05-23T21:01:43.719-05:002017-05-23T21:01:43.719-05:00Tou don't even need bad roads. Read elsewhere ...Tou don't even need bad roads. Read elsewhere the following scenario:<br /><br />The Big Game is over. Thirty thousand people pour out of the stadium, pile into their automated cars, and say "Home, James."<br /><br />Which car pulls out of its parking space first?<br /><br />Several hundred questions follow that one. At least.qthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09256501089151146138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6244999628674918029.post-47679343531077109392017-05-23T20:34:51.763-05:002017-05-23T20:34:51.763-05:00The people designing autonomous cars or delivery v...The people designing autonomous cars or delivery vehicles for the likes of UPS or FEDEX have never been down the gravel/dirt county road or up the private lane to my house. In mud season? In winter? Maneuvering around washouts? I live on a decent rural road, the sketchy ones are much worse. Good luck with that. I would be curious to see how these autonomous vehicles deal with driving in heavy snow, ice, dust storms, even on a normal highway. One US highway in my area gets water over it during floods which require a state pilot truck to guide the traffic through a foot+ of standing water for a mile or so. Last week while on a trip we had to drive through several inches of storm water on city streets with leaves, sticks and other debris floating around. How's an autonomous car deal with that? It's all well and good on dry pavement and grid square streets with nice fresh reflective pavement markings and a good GPS signal. What happens when those things aren't there to hold their robotic hand?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com