I'm a relative lightweight in the "prepping" world. I have emergency food, water and other supplies to keep my wife and myself alive for a few months in a disaster situation, and (hopefully) enough to share with friends for at least the short term; but that's based on "bugging in", staying in our home and not venturing far unless and until it's safe to do so. We don't have a "bug out" location, or remotely stored supplies, or anything like that - it's simply unaffordable for us.
Nevertheless, I'm often surprised to hear from people who are very much in our situation that they have these grand plans to "bug out" to the sticks, establish a survival homestead from scratch, grow their own food, herd a few cows, steal a travel trailer from somewhere as a place to live, and so on. Frankly, I think they have no idea at all of just how much work will be involved in making that plan work.
Eaton Rapids Joe has put up a couple of recent blog posts in which he lays out precisely what skills and resources are needed (and vitally important) if one is to homestead successfully. In the first article, "A man has to know his limitations", he looks at all the skills needed to successfully homestead (some required all the time, others for specific situations). In the second, "Why 'Russian' Dachas all look alike", he examines what successful country farms have in the way of facilities and equipment, and also what they don't have (because it's either way too expensive, or too resource-heavy, or unnecessary). Both articles, and both of the lists he provides, are well worth reading. If, after reading them, anyone still thinks it'll be easy to set up an emergency homestead . . . well, you're probably going to learn the hard way how wrong you are!
... if you need to resort to your hideaway stash becase you can’t get to your primary gear, then its safe to assume that your life has just taken a turn for the spectacularly ungood, agreed? So, in that time of (literally) existential crisis doesn’t it seem to make sense that you would want the best gear you can have?
It does, indeed, make sense. That's a lesson I learned the hard way in Africa over many years. If you know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Mother Nature is a stone cold bitch who's out to kill you, wouldn't you want the best gear you can get in your emergency stash, to help you withstand her advances? Quality can save your life. Economy can kill you. That applies to all our emergency preps, not just firearms.
(On a related subject, Commander Zero recently bought some land in the back country of Montana, and is beginning to set it up as a private retreat. He recently blogged about his first weekend excursion to begin preparing it for use. So many things went wrong that one can almost feel his pain, but he's not afraid to discuss all the mistakes he made, and what he's learned from the experience that he'll apply in future visits. A very useful discussion, and a very useful reality check for the rest of us.)
Preparation isn't just physical. One's outlook on everyday living - and what it costs - is a foundational element. SNAFU links to a social media comment from a teacher who's complaining that she can't come out on $7,500 net income per month - while spending over $1,500 on a vehicle payment, and over $3,000 on rent! Some commenters at his site question whether the original post is truthful, because the payments seem extraordinarily high, but he makes the very valid point that "Financial Education needs to be a REQUIRED course in school (along with NOT chasing luxury items to impress people that don't give a damn)".
On that subject, here's some brutally frank (and very truthful) advice from the TV series House Of Cards. Kevin Spacey plays Frank Underwood, a highly immoral yet realistic politician.
Yes, that is brutal advice: but in this world of easy-fulfilment dreams, hire purchase, leasing, and all the other debt instruments out there, it remains true. If you're in debt, you're a financial slave to those who own your debt, and most of them will be utterly ruthless in coming after you to get what they're owed. Being prepared for emergencies is as much about financial preparation as any other type of preparedness: and one of the first and most fundamental steps in financial preparation is to get out of debt as far as possible. As Spacey's character says, "The moment you get in debt, you're enslaving yourself until you buy back your freedom with interest." Believe it. It's true.
(Sometimes, of course, we can't afford not to go into debt. We had to replace my wife's car in early 2022, because her old one had been driven into the ground until it was no longer viable. The impact of COVID-19 had led to a drastic shortage of all types of vehicles, partly due to the reduction in dealer inventory, partly due to the shortage of used vehicles thanks to President Obama's "Cash For Clunkers" scheme, which scrapped tens of thousands of otherwise worthwhile cars. We ended up buying a new car, and paying above the manufacturer's MSRP, because nothing else worthwhile was available to us: and, to finance that very expensive purchase, we took out a loan. It was a loan neither of us wanted, but under the circumstances, it was necessary. Under such circumstances, one does what one must. We bought an entry-level model without all the luxury features, and that helped lower the price and keep payments down.)
All of the above articles are food for thought.
Peter
"Cash is King" and "pay yourself first." Don't remember who said those but rarely does one find more truth in fewer words.
ReplyDeleteThat said, sometimes credit is a necessary evil. Recognize that its is evil and treat it accordingly: use very sparingly, and intelligently, when it's a necessary evil. Before you take out any loan, for anything, print the amortization table for the proposed loan and study it. Total up how much interest it contains for the life of the loan, and examine ways to reduce it as much as possible. A friend's 30-year house mortgage, a quite reasonable one, showed the usual 360 payments, with the principal part of the first payment being $24; adding $25 to their first payment would skip them one month into the schedule, avoiding all the interest on payment #2. Adding $100 would move them to payment #5 on the table, avoiding all the interest amounts for payments 2,3,and 4. Scrimping hard on other things for several months could have them 5-7 years into their 30-year mortgage by the end of the first year.
Auto loans-most people, when the last payment is made, figure they now have X dollars "free money" to spend. Instead, that payment amount has been figured into your budget for however long the loan was, so keep making those payments but make them to yourself; find a high interest insured money market acccount at a credit union or bank and do auto-pay into it with the car loan amount. Pretty soon you'll have a pile of cash, and the next time you need to buy a car you can capitalize on deals - specifically, one of those rare deals where it's a gently used car in excellent condition - because cash offers leverage that nothing else does.
If you have a place you can bug into, what do you need to be able to fix? Do you have enough storage? You don't. You really don't. What to store?
ReplyDeleteA welder - welding is a skill. Will you MIG, with or without gas. How thick the metal, 120 or 240V. If you go ox-fuel. Propane or acetylene? Rods? How do you keep your rods dry? Which rods do you choose? Nozzles? Cutting, welding or heating. By the way, iron and mild steel only. Welding is only part of it. Cutting, grinding, etc.
Every skill on that list is like that. I keep sheep, cows, and chickens. I have a closet of vet supplies. Large animal vets that visit don't exist in my area anymore. I have a vet with whom I text pictures and questions, but I must handle the animals.
What do you need to stock, how much can you store? Garden-if you garden organically you will lose up to 70% of your crops to insects. Then there is the weather. What crops are practical in your area?
Maintenance - do you depend on a vehicle? Can you keep it running? How about your plumbing? Does your food supply depend on electricity? Do you have enough mason jars to can a year's worth of food? What won't grow in your area? Grapes-take a while to establish. Fruit trees - you need to be years ahead.
If you are not preparing and doing years in advance then you are at best prepared for only a few months. IMHO.
Now do all that without the internet to look things up, grid-borne electricity, city water/sewage/gas, or anybody with spare goods that will take dollars.
DeleteProbably while your neighbors that didn't prepare try to kill you for your meagers.
Good times.
That teacher was driving a Mercedes Benz G-wagen a VERY high-end Benz SUV. The stripped G Wagon may be appropriate in the Veldt in africa (although the beloved Toyota is more likely to stay running with shade tree mechanics) The G-wagen is like a 750 dollar 36 month lease with 6K down (I looked). The teacher at 7500/Month is making 90K/year. That is NOT bad for a teacher, Daughter is Math Teacher at a moderate MA school with 10 years service and a masters in math and is NOT quite there. But a G-wagen is likely too pricey even for Doctors and Lawyers today) . She'd hav done as well with a Ford or Honda or Subaru at half the payment for an off lease 2-3 year old car.
ReplyDeleteAnd financial education is a job for the parents. First show by example by living frugally. This doesn't mean NO luxuries it means only those you can budget. Second teach them by letting them work for things. We used to give matching funds so when my daughters wanted something they had to save or earn 1/2 to get some things. Third, if they're going to college make sure they understand the purpose of their education and have a goal in mind. at 40-60K a year going to broaden your mind is a dumb idea. Finally when they go into the real world be willing to teach them how to budget and make the money stretch.
Financial Ed in High School might be nice, but it's too soon if they're not headed out into the real world at high school graduation. It will be forgotten if they spend 4 years in college. Oh and if the need to live in an apartment with roommates a couple years in college that can also act as a learning experience.
It seems like the teacher in the video had no clue of costs and so easily overspent her 90K which probably seemed like infinite money after college.
I've been interested in, and reading about, prepping for over 10 years. Far and away, the #1 gripe I have is that the vast majority of articles, books, videos, etc., on the subject assume a large amount of discretionary funding available. I'm not living week-to-week, but close enough to that, that moving to a more favorable location is simply not possible. Gardening? Nope - not when you live in an apartment. Food storage? Do-able, but challenging. The list goes on. I am prepared for short-term stuff, but if things go to hell, I'll be up a creek.
ReplyDeleteOf the preppers I know, all are "bug-in". I don't consider that viable if things get into Selco territory. I might be able to make it to one of their places, if I'm lucky. But all are "in town".
Considering my age, my best-case scenario is to die before the fighting starts. If I die with my back to the kitchen wall, at least I'll have taken a few miscreants with me.
- jed
Thank-you for considering my essays good enough to reference!!!
ReplyDeleteThe lists are always incomplete. There are always things that come up.
What becomes clear is that no single person can gain mastery in all of those skills or even afford to buy all of the tools. The next thing you realize is that you need to get firmly rooted in a community where somebody is likely to have some of those skills. And then you need to establish yourself as a man-of-your-word, as a worker-bee and as having one or two of those skills. Pro-tip: choose one of the less-glamorous ones like repairing shoes or "digging" wells. You will be more valued if you are the only shoe and harness repair person than if you are one-of-twenty "herbal healers" or "horse trainers".
How many people survive SHTF for how long will depend mostly on the severity of the event. In a true TEOTWAWKI event even the best prepared people will see significant mortality rates. VERY few people had both the skills and the resources to live long term without access to what we have all become accustomed to. Survival for even "preppers" depends far more on the random outcomes of fate than their preparations. The goal realistically is to be able to survive long enough for some semblance of normalcy to return. If it never returns most will eventually succumb to the inevitable.
ReplyDeleteRE: second-best vs. top-tier gear
ReplyDeleteParticularly with guns, for 90-95% of people, you are not going to practice enough for the problem behind the stock to stop overshadowing the problems in front of it.
Buy mid-tier guns and accessories and use the money you saved from not buying the fancy stuff on ammo so you can practice.
Hey, thanks for the linkage! This place is actually on my daily reads and this is, I think, the first time I've commented here. Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteTruth be told, the only people who will be able to "bug out" efficiently are former and active military who've been trained in those regards. The wealthy can "bug in" and guard their properties and supplies. The remaining ninety or so percent will be sh*t outta luck and jolly-well f*cked.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that if the "bunkers" the Uber rich have prepared become necessary they will learn a very bitter lesson. Once money is no good their hired help will usurp those preps to keep their own families safe. And the Uber rich will be lucky to survive that lesson.
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