Creating a crisis - or responding to signals we can't yet hear?

 

I'm sure many readers are aware of the sudden rush of articles and media reports, recommending that we make sure we have enough supplies stockpiled to take care of sudden, unexpected shortages.  Periods range from a week to 90 days, depending on who's talking.  The quality and trustworthiness of the warnings varies widely.  The more alarmist ones I tend to discount.  The ones that are based on solid evidence and knowledgeable analysis, I listen to more carefully.

One of the very best analyses I've read recently is "The Coming Food Crisis May Look Nothing Like a Crisis Until It’s Too Late".  It doesn't speak about the short term so much as how a long-building crisis will reveal itself over time.  As such, it'll repay reading more than once as you think about it.  You won't agree with all the author's points, but I suspect most of them are carefully thought through.  Here's a brief excerpt.

This article rests on three kinds of claims, and it is worth keeping them apart. First come the demonstrated problems: measured facts about the age of farmers, the drawdown of aquifers, the concentration of meatpacking, the cost of inputs, the price of food. Then comes an interpretation, which is mine and can be argued with: the suggestion that these separate trends, taken together, are eroding the system’s ability to absorb a shock. Last come scenarios, which are conditional rather than predictive, describing what could happen over the next decade or two if several pressures arrive at once and little changes. The text will say which is which as it goes.

What follows is not a forecast of collapse. It is an attempt to look past the grocery aisle at the people who grow the food, the water and soil they depend on, the infrastructure that moves it, and the habits of a public that has rarely had a reason to worry.

There's a lot more at the link.  Highly recommended.

As for more immediate problems and how to prepare for them, there are literally dozens of articles, both mainstream and otherwise, that address the issue.  Here are a few that caught my eye.

• A Reminder from Kim du Toit.
• "The Fear Mongering Going On Right Now Is Near Covid Levels" from Bustednuckles.
• "5 countries. 6 warnings. 1 week..." on X.
• "Government advises households to prepare national crisis ‘emergency kit’ " from the Telegraph in Britain.
• Also from Britain, " 'State-sponsored attacks' may cause food shortages, Streeting warns", from the Independent.
• "Nine Days from the Dark: What Sixty Million People Learned About Water, Warmth and Medicine During Spain’s Ten-Hour Blackout" by John Walter.
• "Fortress America - Outside the Gates - Why 90 Days Matters" on YouTube from Monkey Werx, referring to the US Secretary of War's warning that all military bases must prepare to sustain themselves without input from the local population for up to 90 days.

I'm not wanting to panic-monger here.  I've prepared for trouble for a long time, and I'm reasonably sure that my wife and I can weather up to 90 days of deprivation - apart from critical supplies such as water - without too much difficulty.  However, I know many people are nowhere near as prepared for trouble.  If things went badly wrong, very quickly - for example, urban unrest cutting off incoming food supplies in the wake of a disputed election result, or something like that - the more people who are prepared to look after themselves, the better.

One of the things that far too few "preppers" have adequately considered, IMHO, is the question of local authorities and law enforcement agencies seeking to confiscate the supplies of those who've prepared for an emergency.  They'll be labelled as "hoarders" and "selfish" for refusing to share.  The mass of the population, who won't have prepared as they should, will almost certainly echo such sentiments and demand that our supplies be handed over as our "fair share" towards coping with the disaster.  How are we going to handle such a situation?  If you think you can shoot your way out of it, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.  You might be able to fight off the first couple of police officers, but when a dozen of them show up, supported by a couple of dozen armed people from your neighborhood?  Not a chance.  There are ways to minimize the risk, and the loss, under such circumstances, but I won't go into them here.

Meanwhile, I suggest we all read at least a few of the articles mentioned above, particularly the first one, and behave like wise virgins rather than foolish ones.

Peter