Manufacturing - fear, uncertainty and doubt? Or something better?

I've been following developments in the manufacturing field with interest, from the point of view of national economies, what's happening to world production at the moment, the changing patterns of production and consumption, and so on.

It's interesting to see how little people in general are aware of what's going on. For example, many complain that the US manufacturing industry is in the doldrums, and a pale shadow of what it once was. However, did you know that in terms of its gross output, in dollar terms, the US manufacturing industry has never been healthier? We're producing more manufactured goods by value than ever before in our history. It's simply not true that the US is no longer a 'manufacturing economy' - it's just that we're not making locally the smaller, more labor-intensive products that used to be produced in this country. All that sort of production - and, sadly, the jobs it provided - has been sent overseas, because US producers couldn't compete with those in lower-wage countries. What's produced here now are larger engineering-intensive items like aircraft, machinery, etc., where wages and salaries are less of a factor in the final product price. Those who complain that "manufacturing is a shadow of its former self in this country" are complaining about lost manufacturing jobs - not manufacturing's output.

(Of course, how long US market leadership - or that of the First World as a whole - in such items will last is debatable. For example, China's COMAC is gearing up to produce its first genuinely competitive airliner, a Boeing 737- or Airbus A320-class plane called the C919.

Model of COMAC C919 airliner (scheduled to fly in 2014)

I suspect it'll be sold at cost, or even at a loss, to break into world markets. The tactic looks like it'll be successful: already, Ryanair - Europe's equivalent to Southwest Airlines in the USA - is working with COMAC, and talking of possibly buying the Chinese airliner. That may, of course, be a negotiating tactic for the airline to squeeze better pricing out of Boeing and/or Airbus . . . but then again, it may not. If Ryanair can get a 737- or A320-size and -class airliner for two-thirds to three-quarters the cost of the Western aircraft, they'd be fools not to go for it.)

What interests me is the renewed emphasis on innovation in the West, to counteract the economies of scale in factory production in the East. Three stories caught my eye this past week.

First, Cafe Hayek published a report on 'replicators' and their implications for production. The report linked to this video clip about three-dimensional printers.

3D printing may not be quite what Star Trek meant by a 'replicator', but it'll do until something better comes along! This may - no, it will revolutionize small-scale production runs. It may not be economical to set up a production line to produce a few dozen, or a few hundred, or even a few thousand parts; but if one of these devices can produce that many, more slowly than a production line, but also more economically, that changes the picture altogether. I've already heard of people making copies of irreplaceable parts from antique machinery, and using them to restore it to operation. This may be immensely important for our future.

Next, Wired reports on a power strip from Quirky that's flexible enough to accommodate large power adaptors without them blocking other outlets.




The Wired reporter acknowledged that "it is a product that I actually need. So much so that I ordered one before writing a word of this post." You can hardly argue with an endorsement like that . . . particularly since the moment I saw it, I ordered one too! (No, Quirky isn't paying me to endorse or advertise their product - I just really like the skull-sweat that went into this one, and it's genuinely useful!) This is the sort of innovation that will keep the First World competitive: thinking up new and useful products, and getting them into production quickly enough to take the cream off the market before other low-cost producers with few scruples about copyright and/or patent protection duplicate the item(s).

Finally, I'm encouraged by efforts being made by companies to encourage innovation, invention and entrepreneurship. For example, the Daily Mail reports on a new vacuum cleaner design - made out of cardboard packaging!

Jake Tyler's innovative machine so impressed cleaning giant Vax that it intends to put the model into production.

The 22-year-old an industrial design student at Loughborough University said: ‘I have really high hopes for the product, especially in Asian markets such as Hong Kong and China. It is very cheap to manufacture.

‘I've been given a job at Vax as well so I can see the production through to the end.’

Mr Tyler developed the ‘ev’ model for his final-year degree project.

He was supported by the product design team at Vax's headquarters in Worcestershire, where he worked for a year under the company's student placement scheme.

. . .

The Vax ev is made from corrugated cardboard panels, which come as part of the packaging.

They can be replaced if damaged and cost a 10th of the price of an equivalent plastic panel.

Jake said: ‘When people's vacuum cleaners go wrong they just throw them away, but this can be repaired very easily.

‘The cardboard panels have a flame-retardant coating and are also water repellant.

‘People can personalise their vacuums by drawing pictures on the cardboard.’

Other components in the vacuum have been made from recyclable nylon plastic.

This means the Vax ev can be manufactured close to its markets, without the need for expensive production lines or long-distance distribution.

The cleaner has also earned Jake a place at the New Designers exhibition of the UK's best graduate work.

There's more at the link. Note the emphasis on simplicity of manufacture. If materials such as corrugated cardboard packaging will be sufficient, one can set up an assembly facility almost anywhere! It's enough to give nightmares to Chinese companies and their factory managers . . . but it's the only way in which we can compete with them. I'm encouraged that Vax is forward-thinking enough to sponsor such projects, and reward those who invent them.

I suggest that all these factors mean that our manufacturing outlook isn't as bleak as it's made out to be. One just has to think outside the box.

Peter