Mexico and California are caught between a rock and a hard place

Strategy Page notes that Mexico is on the horns of a dilemma when it comes to illegal aliens.  Here's an excerpt.

The government [of Mexico] announced it would spend $50 million to hire lawyers in the United States to defend Mexican citizens there illegally and faced with deportation. This is all about money and a lot more than $50 million. The Mexican central bank tracks how much money Mexicans abroad send home and in 2016 it was $25 billion, almost all of it from Mexicans in the United States and much of it from Mexicans in the United States illegally. That remittance cash accounts for more foreign exchange than Mexican oil exports. The remittance income is rising. It was nearly $22 billion in 2013 and is expected to rise to $28 billion in 2017, unless the United States enforces its immigration laws like Mexico does. Mexico has for decades tolerated illegal migration to the United States because the corruption and bad government in Mexico did little to provide jobs for the growing number of unemployed Mexicans and created a lot of potentially troublesome young men and women. Tolerating and, for many Mexican politicians, openly supporting the illegal migrants, was a popular policy and the government came to regard it as a right. But it was also about money and the remittances created a huge source of foreign currency flowing back to Mexico.

. . .

Mexico has more severe laws against illegal immigration and illegal migrants than the U.S.  It also enforces them more vigorously than does the U. S. By mid-2014 Mexico agreed to undertake Operation Sur which was supposed to curb illegal Central American migrants from entering Mexico. Operation Sur increased surveillance operations along Mexico’s southern border and improved border inspections. The government also tried to improve registration of legal migrants. In addition to the criminals, local police forces in southern Mexico have been accused of extorting money from illegal migrants and police corruption has long been a major problem. Despite Operation Sur, Mexico did little halt illegal migration across its northern border.

All this was noticed in the U.S. and politicians there found themselves under increasing pressure to enforce American migration laws as vigorously as Mexico (and Canada) did. By 2016 that brought to power an American government that seemed serious about applying Mexican practices to illegal migrants and actually did so. That was unpopular in Mexico and will probably lead to unexpected changes inside Mexico. But the practice of blaming your northern neighbor for your problems is losing its punch even in Mexico.

There's more at the link.

There's even more to it than the remittances sent home by Mexicans (legal and illegal) in the USA.  About 80% of Mexico's foreign trade is with the United States.  If Mexico refuses to cooperate in dealing with the US's illegal alien problem, and refuses to renegotiate NAFTA, guess what's going to happen to most of that foreign trade?

California's facing the same problem in a different way.  It's said to be home to more illegal aliens than any other state in the USA.  President Trump appears to be wildly unpopular among, even hated by, many people there.  The state government is now considering a bill to declare the entire state a sanctuary for illegal aliens . . . but then what?

• The US government would undoubtedly seek to enforce US law, which constitutionally takes precedence over state law in areas where they conflict.
• California would probably refuse to recognize as legitimate, or cooperate with, any measures enacted by the federal government.
• The federal government has all sorts of avenues of pressure available to it.  It can stop sending federal funds to the state, and also embargo electricity, water, and fuel shipments to California, plunging the state into chaos.
• However, California can retaliate.  It can stop sending taxes to the federal government, which would actually gain it money, since it's one of the few states that contributes more to the central government than it receives from it.  It might even seize federal property, and seek to use it for the state's benefit.  Both measures would, again, lead to retaliation by the federal government.
• The last time that sort of thing happened, it led inexorably to the Battle of Fort Sumter.  Would California be insane enough to go that far?  It's not impossible.  It's governed by moonbats - and logic has never been their strong suit.

Pass the popcorn, folks.  Both Mexico and California are going to make interesting watching over the next few weeks and months.

Peter