China's economy is now regarded as the largest in the world, by most normal standards of measurements. Many - in some economic sectors, most - of the consumer goods sold in Europe and the USA are sourced from Chinese factories. Any impact on the Chinese economy would undoubtedly have a ripple effect in our own - and not just economic, either, as I'll explain later.
That's why three recent reports have concerned me. I've linked to each one, followed by an extract to highlight the issues they note. Click each headline to read the rest of the article - which I highly recommend, if you'd like to stay informed about this.
1. Rush to Beat Trump Tariffs Turns Into Another Headwind for China.
Warehouses in southern California are full to bursting with Chinese goods rushed across the Pacific ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff deadlines.
. . .
Those chock-a-block dockyards seen in mid-January are evidence of a phenomenon in global trade which economists are still struggling to capture the full extent of: “front loading.”
Customers for Chinese goods brought forward their orders in the expectation that duties would rise at the end of 2018, cushioning the blow from the trade war on China’s economy through most of 2018. Problem is, that forward buying means that fewer orders than normal are set to get booked now, depressing trade at the start of the year.
How this distortion in the U.S.-China trading relationship combines with the other risks to China’s export performance this year will help determine how bad the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy will become.
2. Fudged growth numbers take the shine off China's 'miracle'.
China is one of the few countries that target economic growth, and growth numbers are manufactured to be consistent with the objectives of various Chinese development plans.
Notice, unlike most developed countries, the quarterly rates are amazingly stable, quarter to quarter. Yet, financial markets accept and trade on the announced growth numbers as if they are a real measure of the actual state of the Chinese economy.
Some years ago, while I was on a business trip to China, the authorities announced the growth rate for the September quarter in the middle of the month of September, before the quarter had ended. In Australia, our statistician would not be able to announce the September quarter result until about the first or second week of December.
Recently a Chinese professor was censored after suggesting that growth was below 2 per cent in 2018, not 6.5 per cent as announced by the authorities.
One of the reasons offered for why the Chinese government consistently exaggerates growth numbers is its concern about social unrest if the Chinese people were told the truth about growth and the state of the Chinese economy – that economic performance was falling well short of the objectives or promises of its economic plans. There is real concern as to how to continue to control a population of 1.4 billion.
3. 'It could be on the scale of 2008': Expert sends warning on China downturn.
China is in the grip of a dangerous downturn and may be forced to rescue large parts of its financial and economic system, the world's leading expert on debt crises has warned.
Harvard professor Ken Rogoff said the key policy instruments of the Communist Party are losing traction and the country has exhausted its credit-driven growth model. This is rapidly becoming the greatest single threat to the global financial system.
"People have this stupefying belief that China is different from everywhere else and can grow to the moon," said Professor Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
"China can't just keep creating credit. They are in a serious growth recession and the trade war is kicking them on the way down," he told UK's The Daily Telegraph, speaking before the World Economic Forum in Davos.
"There will have to be a de facto nationalisation of large parts of the economy. I fear this really could be 'it' at last and they are going to have their own kind of Minsky moment," he said.
The thing to remember is, if past history is anything to go by, China's government will invoke some foreign "threat" (real or imagined) to blame for its economic troubles. It'll try to mobilize public opinion against that "threat", rather than against their own government, in an attempt to maintain and/or regain control over their people. China is not a democracy, despite outward appearances. It's a top-down, hierarchical, highly structured, authoritarian society. The authorities will do whatever it takes to maintain that - up to and including massacring their own rebellious people, if necessary.
For example, China may decide it's time to forcibly reintegrate Taiwan into the People's Republic, and to hell with anyone else's opinion on the matter. That will satisfy its own people's carefully inculcated sense of patriotism, while portraying China as a "strong man" in diplomatic terms. What's more, there's effectively nothing the rest of the world could do about it militarily - China's become too powerful. All other countries could do is impose economic sanctions; and because so many nations rely on imports from China, that would be very much a two-edged sword, and probably unsustainable. Besides, if the Chinese economy is already in trouble, its rulers probably wouldn't regard sanctions as much of an additional problem - merely more of the same.
Economic trouble in China may translate to serious trouble - not just economic, but probably also diplomatic, and perhaps military as well - for the rest of the world.
Peter
China is pushing, way more than Taiwan with the building of military islands well away from China.
ReplyDeletehttps://goo.gl/maps/B5xweU93NRS2 Takes you to the islands off the coast of the Philippines. Not too many ways to get them to leave now....
Pushing pushing pushing..
China has been acting like a dragon, and for internal use, while putting on a panda face for the rest of the world. China’s very careful on using their military, and Taiwan would be a much bigger step. They can see what happened to Russia’s economy after sanctions... plus they really don’t want South Korea and Japan getting nukes. The Chinese military is not quite there yet for invading Taiwan at minimal costs.
ReplyDeleteand because so many nations rely on imports from China, that would be very much a two-edged sword, and probably unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteChinese export dumping has long been an internal employment method. If the EU, and Africa, and other places stopped buying most Chinese stuff, there would be a small blip in cost increases (5-10% higher for the optional goods China makes). China needs the export markets far more than the buyers need China, for most stuff. Maybe not I-phones, and certainly not in some rare earths (needed for many electronics), but even the rare earths do have fairly expensive substitutes.
The military threat is very very real. We should all remember that, since China's "one child" policy of killing fetal girls, there are some 60 million fighting-age Chinese young men who will not be getting married -- not enough women for all the men. There is no tradition of one woman, many husbands, and it's unlikely there will be one.
The commies are fooling themselves into believing they are invulnerable. If they don't use nukes, Taiwan won't be invaded, and Taiwan is actively building defenses. At least, no invasion for a few more years. Unless commie Emperor Xi is in domestic danger, as you say.
Hopefully the commies will support continued econ growth thru environmental clean up, rather than military build up; or even both. They should be producing more stuff for their own billion customers , rather than OECD countries.
Americans should be buying more US bonds, as the Chinese buy fewer of them.
Can anyone explain to me, in small words, why anybody not totally committed to the Radical Left Narrative would take China's word on anything, most especially economic conditions? The Chinese governments have been lying about economic conditions in Chine for longer than we have written records.
ReplyDeleteAnd to add to what Tom Grey said, even now the mainstream ChiComs are radically bigoted. Children born of mixed marriages are 'lesser beings' so expansionism in order to access females will only create a worse situation as a new lesser class comes of age. For proper females, what is left of Hong Kong and all of Taiwan are the only viable places to draw females of the right breeding from. Sure isn't the Western Provences, where you have Mongolian-Han mixbreeds or, gasp, Muslims...
ReplyDeleteProperly planned, just holding ChiCom off at arms length for 20 years will result in the fall of that country from their peak 2010-2016 period.
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of jerks.
As to the ChiCom Military, well, they never really have had many real military successes. Most of the victories over the Imperial Japanese was done by either Soviet Russians or by the Nationalist Chinese. The Korean intervention was a spectacular way to lose 180K or more people in a year or two. Then they got their rear handed to them by Communist Vietnam. They do not have a tradition of winning except against other ChiComs. And as we've seen in so many Arab-Israeli wars, a tradition and culture of winning is important.
Yes, their economic warfare unit is scary, muscling in on other countries the way they do. And the expansion in the Western Pacific is disturbing, especially as we've let our fleet fall apart. But... Well, WE have the history of coming back from behind. THEY don't.
"China is not a democracy, despite outward appearances." What outward appearances? I've never seen any.
ReplyDeleteWhat Sam L. said. They have a Premier-for-Life, going back to the old imperial trappings like all good communist/socialist countries do. There is no advancement for the untermenschen on the bottom who will never be allowed to rise into the new ruling classes.
ReplyDeleteSure, they can vote, for whom has been chosen to win. So in that respects they're just like the Democratic party here in the USA and in places like California and New York.
I don't think China wants Taiwan back any time soon, it is far too valuable to them as a propaganda tool and a means of distracting us from their far more dangerous other activities.
ReplyDeleteEvery time they see us starting to get too involved in countering their other activities all they need to do to distract our political and pundit classes is pull Taiwan's tail and get them to yowl.
China’s new year greeting to Taiwan. Lots of Taiwan landmarks, sling with Chinese military jets...
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/6zyFpYRyOY0