Thursday, January 20, 2022

Someone please tell me: what compelling national security interest does the USA have in Ukraine???

 

All the current talk about threats of war with Russia over Ukraine are about the stupidest thing I can imagine . . . except that the Biden administration has painted itself into a corner with its incompetence and buffoonery, and the oligarchs that are pulling its strings realize that their exploitation of COVID-19 to increase their control over the citizens is in tatters, and Russia sees in our weakness an opportunity to assert its status as a "recovering superpower", if I may use that term.

There is no, repeat, NO reason for Americans to lose their lives to defend a corrupt, incompetent regime in Ukraine.  We have no compelling or vital national security interest to defend there.  Anyone who disagrees with me is free to identify such an interest and explain it in a comment to this blog post.  I'd love to read it.

Tucker Carlson and his guest put it well yesterday.  The segment is only about five minutes long, and is worth watching.




We've seen this tactic used time and time again in multiple countries over many centuries.  Are things getting out of hand for the powers that be in their own country?  Then, quick - let's make the citizens focus on an external threat, something around which they'll feel duty-bound to unite and ignore anything else.  While they're focused on that, we can get away with whatever we like internally.

China's doing that right now over Taiwan.

Russia's doing that right now over Ukraine.

The USA's doing that right now over Russia.

No war is necessary in any of those examples . . . but given the rhetoric of the leaders concerned, and the need they all share to distract their citizens from internal problems and the manufactured (in every way) threat of the COVID-19 pandemic, they'll grasp eagerly at any and every available straw.

Afghanistan wasn't worth the thousands of American lives it cost to conquer and occupy it.  Ukraine isn't worth even one American life, because there's nothing there that we need or want, and nothing that's of direct and immediate importance to us.  Let the Ukrainians and the Russians sort it out.  It's their business.  If Europe wants to get involved, let them.  They're near enough to the problem for it to be their business.  We aren't.

Peter

EDITED TO ADD:  See CDR Salamander's views for an interesting insight into how and why Russia is reacting as it is.


30 comments:

  1. Post Soviet era, the US really doesn't have any compelling interest in the Ukraine.

    For background check out this talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

    It is a manufactured crisis by the US elite, left and the neocons to serve their masters. Not to mention it's been a source of slush funds for Biden, Kerry and others milking the corruption. Our favorite bogeyman Soros was likely involved too.


    What isn't mentioned in detail is that the US (CIA) was more active in the second coup/color revolution in Ukraine than most media will admit. There are some that claim the US funded and directed the snipers that gunned down the protesters in the final days. The odious Alexander Vindman may or may not played a role in this, but he was a part of whatever was going on while Obama was in office.

    There's a lot of history to unpack and it goes back decades to the Soviets, followed by the Nazis and then the CIA. Unfortunately it always hurts the little people and the taxpayers.










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  2. Pretty simple: for various reasons, Russia and China have decided to be allies again, and, post-Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, are looking to exploit American weakness wherever possible. If Putin's allowed to snag Ukraine, expect China to make a play very shortly afterwards, and for Russia to start pushing to reabsorb the Baltic states, which are NATO allies who have actually tried to live up to their treaty commitments. If, however, the US and its allies can demonstrate that they A. will respond to a such a threat and B. will do so in a credible manner, it is entirely probable that war will be averted altogether, and no one will have to die for Ukraine, or, potentially, Taiwan/Japan/South Korea.

    Unfortunately, I don't think our national security establishment has the ability to do those two things, mostly because they don't have the ability to determine what a credible response would look like and Putin doesn't think Biden would really pull the trigger. Say what one might about Trump, but there's a reason Moscow's pulling this stuff now instead of two years ago.

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  3. @Tom: That's all very well, except that the USA (and, to a lesser extent, Europe) has been pushing to make Ukraine a member of NATO, in direct contradiction of assurances previously given to Russia (given in an ambiguous manner, to be sure, and not in a binding form, but given nonetheless). If the USA and NATO would keep those assurances and stop trying to draw Ukraine into the NATO umbrella, this crisis would disappear overnight.

    From a Russian perspective, a NATO Ukraine would be a direct and immediate threat, right on its flank. It's hard to disagree with them, given their history. It's one of the worst provocations we could offer them. To say that we're "resisting Russian aggression" is to ignore the fact that our attitudes and actions (including, most recently, blatant interference through indirect, but clearly identifiable means in internal unrest in Khazakstan) are the proximate cause of that aggression.

    We are no longer the world's dominant superpower, and no longer the arbiter of the destiny of nations. It's long gone time the neocons on both sides accepted that - but they won't, because it's an article of faith for them.

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    1. After the annexation of Crimea, the eastern Ukraine mess, and the constant Russian mucking around in the Baltic, I am rather less sympathetic to the notion that Russia is more sinned against than sinning than you are. Let's also point out that the Russians have been mucking around in Ukraine as well--understandably so, perhaps, but certainly to a much greater degree, and in much worse ways, than we've ever done to Canada.

      Furthermore, the Russians were moving stuff into place on the Ukrainian border well before the Kazakhstan uprising.

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  4. Tom,

    Historically the Soviet Union has been the super bad guys regarding Ukraine. Russians aren't saints either. But go look at a map. Ukraine is in Russia's backyard. It's like our Canada.

    The US has been screwing with Ukraine since the fall of the USSR. The CIA has caused
    two coups, supported multiple corrupt governments, killed innocents, made defense contractors and democrats rich with spoils.

    The neocons and ilk are poking a wounded bear in it's den, hoping for a reaction and a distraction from domestic screwups. So let's pray these stupid power hungry MFs don't push too hard. The last thing the so-called Biden administration needs is another f*****g cluster fart.

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  5. I am totally unsure of why are thinking of protecting Ukraine's borders when we cannot protect our own Southern border. Lets defend Texas and Arizona.

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  6. The US has no compelling interest, but the Biden Crime Family clearly does. They are sweating bullets over the Russians getting their hands on every record of Ukrainian payoffs to the Bidens.

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  7. the children of our oligarchs are "getting they money" raping the ukraine, therefor we must go to war to protect it. kerry, hilldebrandt, pelosi, biden they all have kids at the trough of ukraine. too bad we couldn't get them all to go check on their "investments"and tip ol' vlad off.

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  8. Somebody in Ukraine knows how much money China joe got from them.

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  9. The first commentor over at USNI gave me chills. He proposed (tactical) nuclear war with Russia in eastern Ukraine- and got a couple of thumbs up. Madness.

    The keystone of Russian psychology is paranoia. They have a long, long history of betrayal and invasion. They need buffers between potential aggressors (who they see as anyone strong enough) and their land and people.

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  10. If the Ukraine wasnt to join NATO, WTF right do we (or Russia) have to deny them? Don't we theoretically stand for freedom and self determination? I know a few people from that region. They are a far better fit as Western Allies than any of the Arab countries we seem to coddle. Send them half the support we give Saudi and they can handle Russia by themselves just fine...no American boots on the ground required.

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    1. The issue is 2 fold.

      First, as mentioned above, assurances were made regarding Nato expansion and those promises were broken

      Second, the Russians view (and not unreasonably) the current, pro-west goverment as an illegitimate puppet and the result of CIA meddling.


      One think that hasn't been mentioned yet is Nord Stream 2.
      A lot if the nonsense about is about tge Ukraine being the major gas transit state between Russia and Europe. Europe is dependent on Russian natural gas. Look into that if youbwant to see just how stupid our "elites" are

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  11. Our former border with Mexico has been overrun by millions of enemy invaders. Courtesy of Amerika's stolen POTUS election and the treasonous scum within every element of fedgov.

    I say again....our former border with Mexico no longer exists. It is time for many to honor their oath "....enemies foreign and domestic."

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  12. One ugly thought. China has been cozying up to Russia. Friendly enough so that Russia felt free to move some troops from the Asian sphere of influence to be ready to send them into Ukraine. I wonder if should they engage that force will China double cross them and try to grab some of the Russia eastern area? Taiwan is a tough not to crack (due to it being a see invasion) and what it has (FABs etc) would be very prone to getting damaged. But the Siberian area has lots of resources especially oil/gas and China needs that badly just like Japan did pre WWII.

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  13. The true threat, as we now know, is the us government

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  14. @CDH: The question is, does Ukraine - the nation - want to join NATO, or do the crooked, corrupt criminals currently in power there want to join NATO as a cover for them to continue their wholesale theft of the nation's assets, diverting them into their own pockets? The level of corruption in Ukraine is so high it's off the charts. If a Ukraine government minister told me that Monday was the day after Sunday, I'd instantly double-check him against a calendar. If the calendar agreed with him, I'd probably distrust the calendar!

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    1. The answer to both your questions is "yes," though the people want in more because they really don't like Russia than because they really like NATO/the EU. They remember the Holodomor.

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  15. Groups of Neo-Cons in the US Govt, want and have wanted a war with Russia since the end of WWII. They have not gotten it yet. But, sooner or later they (or their children) will get the war they have spent 80 year fomenting. These same Neo-Cons fervently believe, that this war when it comes, will leave them on top and in control.
    It won't, but that is what they believe in their deepest of hearts. They'll take they rest of the world to destruction, as long as they survive.
    (note:I don't think that their survival is a guaranteed as they seem to think)

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  16. What a mess…

    1. Globalists backed a coup in Ukraine, a color revolution, with Soros, Eu, and US backing under Obama. Same crew is back in charge of US policy.

    2. US made an informal promise under Bush to Gorbachev not to expand NATO eastward to former Warsaw Pact members. Clinton broke this promise. And the head of NATO now says Ukraine is on the path to membership.

    3. Ukraine gave up nukes after the US, UK, and Russia made promises.

    4. New gas pipeline Nordstream goes around Ukraine removing huge income source once approved.

    5. Energy prices spiking in Europe due to green mania.

    6. Western military now in bad shape, hollowed out.

    7. Russia is doing better due to higher energy costs, and have learned to live with sanctions.

    8. Biden administration desperately needs a distraction from the us economy Fubar results. The Russians are coming! And we have a US President with dementia that was elected through highly suspect means. While the US military is being cleansed of bad thinkers through a vaccine mandate and other means.

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  17. Excellent post with lots of good links on Ukraine/ Russia:
    https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/2022-the-year-of-russia

    Comment I posted:

    Ray-SoCaDec 31, 2021
    Good articles. I did not realize Ukraine was so ethnically diverse. I thought it was just basically Ukrainian and Russian speakers.

    Why is the US so against Federal Governments, and pushes for a centralized government every place outside the US. Afghanistan would have been a lot better with one.

    I wish there was a 4th article, one that mentioned:

    1. Ukrainian money to the us politicians

    2. Russian Economic path today

    3. Russian gas / oil diplomacy

    4. How effective are the existing sanctions

    5. Effect of high price of oil and gas on Russian Economy

    6. Impact of Soros funding on Ukrainian politics

    7. Risk of Russian efforts to destroy the petro dollar / offer alternatives

    8. Impact of us inflation on Russian efforts

    9. Impact of allegations of 2020 US Election Fraud on US / Russian credibility

    10. Perception of US power / credibility with Biden President and the purging of the US Military

    11. How is Ukrainian economy doing today? What’s its probable path.

    12. What impact will Nordstream coming online have on Ukrainian economy?

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  18. @Peter, I can say without a doubt the ones I know do NOT want to live under Russian hegemony. Governments change. Looking past the drumbeats of current political theater, the Ukranian *people* are worth supporting, bith againdst Russia and for improving their government. That is enough for me...if the positions were reversed I would certainly want help.

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  19. I feel the same way about the Ukraine-Russia conflict as I felt about the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s. I'm rooting for casualties.

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  20. Something I don't see being discussed nearly as much as it should be is whether we could win in a confrontation with Russia in Ukraine should we make the dubious choice to fight there? Our military has spent the last 20 years retooling to find unconventional warfare against insurgent forces, not a near-peer conflict. All our R&D funding has been directed to that end, and our tanks, artillery, and armored fighting vehicles have stagnated. Upgrade after upgrade has been cancelled. New smart weapons are designed to take out specific structures or vehicles with minimal collateral damage, not rapidly decimate an armored column. Our anti-air weapons and electronic warfare capabilities have little improvement in the last 20 years. What platform we do have are worn from 20 years of combat operations without sufficient maintenance or replacement. It's not widely known, but Russia was able to shut down the US-supplied weapons systems in Georgia a few years ago at will with their advanced electronic warfare capabilities.

    Russia has been preparing for war with the US or China. We have been preparing for war with Afghanistan or Nigeria. If Russia makes significant inroads against our forces and causes mass casualties, what are the chances our inept leadership will keep a conflict limited to Ukraine and not escalate with attacks on Russia directly?

    Taiwan we should fight for, as we do have compelling national interests there (our economy will be destroyed if the taiwanese fabs are taken offline). Ukraine isn't someplace we should be getting involved in if we can avoid it.

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    1. I believe it is very obvious the us could be a victor in nothing.

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  21. Tom. isn't Russia entitled to the same mistakes these uSA made, re. 1898 events. Not even taking the Westward expansion?

    Some of the history of Ukraine, and that part of the World, tells a story of mostly related people.

    Nato was assembled against USSR. USSR no longer exists and Nato justifies its existence by also meddling in the Middle East.

    As to Ukraine having a sovereign power to ask to join Nato. Nato is not bound to accept as member anyone. Similar ot asking to join as a State in our Union. Asking is nto the same as getting. Why would Nato want a country as a member whose neo-nazis overthrew the government and effectively controls it?

    As to why Russia taking the stand against Ukraine joining Nato, search the internet for worldwide locations of Nato/uSA bases.

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  22. Well, there's this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    We promised to guarantee their boarders if they got rid of their nukes. Do you think that we would be in a better situation if Ukrane still had their nukes? The down wind fallout wouldn't be restricted to Ukraine and Russia.
    Also Czechoslovakia might have an idea about what happens when other countries decide their fate and what that leads to. Just staying

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  23. @omalone: The Budapest Memorandum was ignored when Russia took over the Crimea a few years ago. That means it's a dead letter, despite its high-sounding promises and commitments. Like so many other documents of its kind, it was designed to sound great, but signify nothing - and that's how it proved in practice.

    Remember Neville Chamberlain's "peace in our time", waving a piece of paper in the air? Herr Hitler showed the value of that piece of paper a year later. I think we can safely file the Budapest Memorandum with the Chamberlain paper in the dustbin of history.

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  24. Crimea. Ukranian neo-nazis, right sector and benderites, caused Crimeans to cast their lot with Russia.

    Maybe I will worry about Ukronazis when we fix all our problems.

    Then, we will also realise that any Mexico is more of a problem and foreign governments influence on our alleged representatives is the cause of a lot of our problems.

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  25. Libya gave up their nuke program, they got invaded.
    Ukraine gave up their on-hand nukes in exchange for assurance that they didn't need them.

    At some point, not protecting borders is going to mean that countries will maintain their own nukes, and that makes the world a more dangerous place.

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