Following my article last week about China's threat to Taiwan, I've had an unusually high number of contacts from blog readers and others, suggesting that China's economy is in such dire straits that it's no longer in a position to threaten anyone. I can only say, that's a pipe-dream.
China is a centralized authoritarian state. It rules its people by diktat rather than by democratic legitimacy. Vlogger Winston Sterzel lived in China for over a decade, and doesn't pull his punches when criticizing that nation. He has this to say about a possible Chinese collapse. I highly recommend watching his video in full, to gain some insight into how regimented and controlled China's people really are.
If you'd like to learn more about what he experienced and observed in China, you'll find many more videos on his YouTube channel. Recommended viewing. I think his comments above demonstrate that the likelihood of an internal Chinese collapse is small, because it won't be allowed. You can do a lot in a dictatorial, command economy, where freedom is a pipe-dream. When the Chinese government went so far as to weld shut the doors on entire apartment blocks to enforce a Covid-19 quarantine, leaving people to literally starve in the absence of efficient food delivery, you get some idea what that means.
As for the threat China poses to Taiwan and other nations, Gordon Chang, a noted expert on that country, has this to say.
Last month, a Chinese entrepreneur making medical equipment for consumers told me that local officials had demanded he convert his production lines in China so that they could turn out items for the military. Communist Party cadres, he said, were issuing similar orders to other manufacturers.
Moreover, Chinese academics privately say the ongoing expulsion of foreign colleagues from China’s universities appears to be a preparation for hostilities.
The People’s Republic of China is preparing to go to war, and it is not trying to hide its efforts. Amendments to the National Defense Law, effective the first day of last year, transfer powers from civilian to military officials.
. . .
The amendments ... “point to China’s ambition to achieve ‘whole nation’ levels of military mobilization to fight wars and give the CMC formal power to control the future Chinese capabilities for global military intervention.”
“The revised National Defense Law also embodies the concept that everyone should be involved in national defense,” reports the Communist Party’s Global Times, summarizing the words of an unnamed CMC official. “All national organizations, armed forces, political parties, civil groups, enterprises, social organizations, and other organizations should support and take part in the development of national defense, fulfill national defense duties, and carry out national defense missions according to the law.”
As Fisher told 19FortyFive this month, “For the past 40 years, China’s Communist Party has been preparing for brutal war, and now the ruling organization is accelerating its plans.”
. . .
“Be ready for battle.” That’s how Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post summarized Chinese ruler Xi Jinping’s first order to the military of 2019. In January of that year, he gave a major speech to the CMC on making preparations for war, and the address was then broadcast nationwide.
There's more at the link.
Of course, what China says publicly, and what it's actually going to do, may have little relation to each other. The Chinese Communist Party is notorious for dissembling, obfuscating and evasion - almost as much so as a typical US politician, in fact! Nevertheless, as I've said in these pages before, if it comes to a point where internal unrest becomes threatening, I'm sure China will try to focus its people's energy on an external threat or military operation, to distract them from domestic issues. That's been the habit of dictators and authoritarian regimes for millennia, and it's not about to change.
Peter
Who cares?
ReplyDeleteNot so much a rhetorical question as an actual real question. Speaking as a retired navy captain, Taiwan isn’t worth a used Kleenex to me since there is no evidence at all that they will fight to repel any Chinese invasion. If it’s not worth it to them it sure as hell isn’t worth it to US. OVERLORD was touch and go over a narrow sea. Taiwan is over a hundred miles from China And should have 100,000 anti-cruise missiles in shore batteries and on trucks. They don’t and there is no sign that they vet their enlisted or officers for loyalty so Chinese agents will have no trouble blowing up all the magazines and disabling all their warships and fighter planes.
End of the day we can cripple china with a blockade every bit as effectively as we crippled Russia with sanctions. I think you can count on it until the morons in charge finally discover what globalism and offshoring jobs actually means.
We, on the other hand have sent the bulk of our clever missiles to Ukraine with no plan or path to replace them.
Oh, and one can say much the same about the world’s twelfth largest economy in its long war with one of the poorest and most backward countries on the planet. The ROK should need about as much help from us as they could get from Belgium.
ReplyDeleteThese guys also spent a long time in china as well (they have like 4 other channels besides this main one).
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/v5IBGnCN-_0
There's a lot of signs that China is trouble - but we shouldn't get cocky or spike the football before the touchdown. It's not over until it's over.
But then, the USSR fell apart seemingly all at once. Even the most authoritarian régime can only fight reality for so long.
(I'm even more concerned about what China may be doing via social media which there was a big segment going over in this podcast)
UPDATE! Oh wait, one of the guys on the video I posted IS the same guy in the video you posted. I thought I checked the video channel but apparently misread something. lol My mistake, Peter.
ReplyDeleteChina has close to half a million 'students' in our colleges, plus post grad employment. They'll have no problem sabatauging the US. They'll also have plenty of legal warfare to engage in after the blm types played the 'knockout' and 'harrassment' game with Asians, prompting special legislative protection being enacted not that many months ago. Plus you know where our woke JCS is at when it comes to national defense.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese Communist Party is primarily culturally Chinese and the way China has handled internal issues hasn't changed for many centuries. They have historically been terrible at reaching out of their borders, I would suspect that any attempt at taking Taiwan would fail through their own incompetence. Again in their long history regime collapse has resulted in extremely bloody civil wars and this time around they have nukes.
ReplyDeleteReconcile the two following statements:
ReplyDelete- China will not collapse because it will not be allowed.
- China is built upon the needs and wants of other countries.
Right... Buttress your argument with the YouTube Earnings driven rantings of Poor White Trash Winston S who was never more than an 'English Teacher' in cheap ass tuition centres in China and has zero other earnings potential now that he's not in China.
ReplyDeleteIt's not that I've no sympathy for the less fortunate South African Whites on the LHS of the Bell Curve who have to take whatever options they can to GTFO of their homeland which has no place for them anymore (Guess where I was born, long ago?), but he's simply not a credible source on China. He's just a one-trick click-bait machine.
As for Gordon Chang... Well a stopped clock perpetually chiming doom is right once in ~250 years given Glubb Pasha's musings and the history of Chinese dynastic cycles. So there's a ways to go before it Chimes Chang O'Clock... but meanwhile Gordie will be raking in the think tank and consultancy bucks until his last breath.
China has its issues. Plenty of big ones. And it's no light unto the nations... Chinese don't go on for that messianic humbug bullshit, really. Still, it's ruled over by, you know, actual Han Chinese... not You-know-whos, late of the Pale. And the CCP doesn't actively hate and despise its own majority population. Y'all would be lucky to have China's problems during the next decade or three. Think on that.
As for the Chinese Threat... To most of the people's of the world in the current year, the USA is far more of a threat. Think on that.
China is going through economic turmoil and dealing with the need to move away from an entirely export-focused economy. That brings internal pain, which makes the chances of a confrontation over Taiwan higher, not lower. One of the most effective defenses against internal dissent is to point the malcontents at an external enemy. China may well choose to pursue that route. As for those saying we have no vital national interest in Taiwan - incorrect. Unlike Ukraine or Afghanistan, Taiwan is a critical supplier for every high-tech item we design, including our weapons systems, and we can't replace them without years of sustained effort.
ReplyDeleteFirst I'd like to disagree with HMS Defiant up above. There's plenty of evidence that the Taiwanese will fight. Now their armed forces and major government offices/utilities etc. are almost certainly filled with Chicom fifth columnists who will attempt to sabotage defense attempts but the population will fight.
ReplyDeleteThe BBC had an article about Taiwanese people and the will to fight recently - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62390835
That ties in with my personal knowledge from visiting the island and doing business there
Taiwan is also developing exactly the sorts of drone attackers that will make the PLA invasion forces very unhappy if they establish a beachhead on the island. Some of them are being donated to Ukraine (https://twitter.com/ArchiveArmory/status/1561208486784286721 ) and one imagines that the Ukrainians will provide feedback on how well they work in real combat
Second West Taiwan is intensely vulnerable to externally delivered shocks. It's been tied in to the global economy for a quarter of a century now and is a major importer of food, oil and raw materials as well as exporter of finished goods. A blockade on even just the top 3 or 4 major ports would screw up imports enough to put a major, possibly fatal, crimp in the Chinese economy. It would also prevent them from making additional weapons.
Third much of the West Taiwanese population is already unhappy with wuflu lockdowns, banking crises, real-estate bubbles and so on as various news items have made clear. They might be willing to put up with the additional hardships required for a short war with Taiwan, but I doubt they have the faith in the CCP leadership to loyally support them if the promised "short victorious war" turns out to be neither short nor victorious.
The Chinese still cannot force the strait in the face of determined opposition
ReplyDeletefrom Taiwan, Japan, and the ROK. The political will may fail, but militarily, the PRC CANNOT mount an invasion over the strait. 120 miles is huge. Hitler, with all his superiority, couldn't force the English Channel. The Formosa Strait is 10 times wider, and 10 times harder. It is not just the initial force that has to be delivered. The reinforcement, replacements and replenishment would take more capacity than the Chinese have, WITHOUT opposition. It reminds me of all those KU books that have the Chinese sneaking in divisions on container ships. With never a thought on how resupply across the Pacific is going to be accomplished. The damned Russians are having a hard time overland. Try doing it over 100 to 150 miles by train, then ship, then truck. It cannot physically be done.
Oh, and another thing. About the PRC collapsing. We all better hope not. The US goes into the tank about 2 weeks later. As in total economic collapse. The federal government would have to take over necessary services. And if you think the incompetent assholes in Washington can or even want to keep everyone fed and warm, you have not been watching the news.
ReplyDeleteThe US does not begin to have the forces to interdict the Straits and without us I doubt the ROK or Japan will play. I’d expect China to wipe the board in Taiwan as their opening move. That will include destruction of all those high tech factories. Quantity is a quality of its own and not only does China have more stuff then Taiwan and US, it’s of increasing quality. Their air games over the strait are impressive to one who watched Southern Watch up close for years. We never lost a fighter over Iraq due to a malfunction and I haven’t been hearing of Chinese aircraft falling into the Strait.
ReplyDelete7th fleet is a shadow of what it was 25 years ago and 3rd fleet is mostly broken. Ever wonder how many other sailors on our ships will decide to burn down the ship? Bonne Homme Richard was not unique. It bears thinking about.
Actually, yes we do. Interdicting the straits is child's play. The Chinese will quickly find they have no ships left. Period. O-U-T out. They cannot force the straits without US involvement, much less against the US forces. And that is if the Chinese are better than the Russians. I would not bet on their forces and equipment being any better maintained than the Russians. Which means they will not even try. They are watching and learning from the Russian fiasco in the Ukraine.
ReplyDelete