Monday, November 7, 2022

"The Preppers Were Right All Along"

 

That's the opinion of Amanda Little, writing at Bloomberg.


Preppers, as the community of bunker builders and food hoarders is known, emerged during the Cold War as fears of nuclear holocaust drove some people to go to great lengths to prepare for survival in a burned-out world. But as the movement persisted over the decades, it has been mostly ignored by mainstream society, myself included, which came to view preppers mainly as paranoid radicals.

So it's more than a little uncomfortable to confront the reality that this fringe industry is increasingly mainstream. In fact, in an era of growing environmental volatility and geopolitical unrest, Augason and his competitors appear downright prescient, maybe even pragmatic.

Disaster after disaster has reminded us all of the disturbing premise underpinning prepper thinking: We’re increasingly at risk of being cut off from our normal food supply. One recent report predicts that the survival food industry, which now produces very roughly $500 million in annual sales (privately held manufacturers don't like to share their numbers), will grow by $2.8 billion by 2026.

The growth of this industry speaks volumes about the fear mindset that has crept into mainstream consumer behavior. You probably have at least one friend, colleague or neighbor who has been toying with the idea of becoming a “prepper.” Maybe not building a full-on bunker, but lining their pantries with long-storage food in the event that another major storm, blizzard, wildfire or another public health crisis hits.


There's more at the link.

I've never been a prepping extremist.  I simply grew up in Africa, where in most countries the supply of food is precarious at best, subject to interruptions of many kinds, from drought or other natural disaster through banditry to all-out civil war.  Anyone with any sense there stores at least a few weeks' worth of essential supplies, because one never knows when one might not be able to buy more of them.  After coming to the USA, experience with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita drove home the lessons I'd already learned in Africa, and reinforced them.

I began pounding the "prepping" drum in earnest after those hurricanes, because I could see how simple population growth was putting the world's supply of food at risk.  It's not that there isn't enough food in normal times;  there is - but it has to be moved from where it is to where it's needed, and that's a whole lot more difficult when shipping is tied up with moving consumer goods, and older ships are retired because it costs too much to keep them in service, and airlines can't carry bulk food because it's not cost-effective, and trains are short of the fuel needed to move from one country to another.  What our cities need in the way of food is available, but it's hundreds or thousands of miles from the shops and distribution facilities closest to those who need it, and we can no longer take it for granted that it'll be able to cover that distance.  The current diesel shortage is only one element of the problem.  There are many more.

For example, right now Canada is dealing with a near-record wheat harvest, but bad weather is hampering its delivery.


Thousands of tons of wheat and canola is stranded in Canada after rain has hampered deliveries at the country’s largest port during peak shipping season.

Grain terminals in Vancouver are having trouble loading and unloading grain amid heavy, persistent rain in British Columbia, creating a backlog of trains that are unable to deliver to the port, said David Przednowek, assistant vice president of grain for Canadian National Railway Co. At least 12 fully-loaded unit trains, carrying more than 100,000 tons, are parked on the Prairies waiting to deliver, he said.

“Nobody wants to see those trains idle,” Przednowek said Friday by phone. “Everybody wants to move it. We just can’t.”


Again, more at the link.

Those weather-induced delays in shipping Canadian wheat are adding to the stresses on the world wheat market, where already there's a multi-million-ton shortfall in supply and prices have skyrocketed ("The average of three important wheat prices increased by 165 per cent between May 2021 and May 2022").  There are countries whose populations are threatened with literal starvation because they can't get enough wheat, fast enough, to feed them.

I'm not going to go into all the details of our own agricultural situation, and inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks, and all the other ramifications.  We've talked about them a lot in recent months.  Suffice it to say that our cities and supermarkets are not ready to deal with an interruption of even a week in the arrival of foodstuffs and critical supplies.  Our transportation system is increasingly broken, from drought affecting the Mississippi, to diesel fuel prices and availability affecting trucking, to supply bottlenecks affecting everything.  It's never made more sense to have a food reserve in your home, so that if such interruptions arrive (perhaps I should say "when"), we can get through them.  If we can afford it, there's no reason not to prepare for longer shortages.

If you haven't already done so, I can only urge you to make what preparations you can, even at this late hour.  They probably won't be adequate (unless you have very deep pockets and can afford to pay through the nose to buy and have delivered all that you'll need), but they'll be a lot better than nothing.

Peter


15 comments:

  1. In the old days, ~ 70 years for me, everybody I knew canned food for the winter, bought extra in the summer, hunted, fished. Most remembered hard times in the '30s and '40s and didnt want to be caught short.

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  2. Yes it is probably too late to start, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't try.
    I grew up with both sets of grandparents who had raised families during the Depression and canning food for the winter and knowing how to get by was ingrained. In the 70s and 80s I had a homestead farm and utilized all of the things I had learned in my childhood. What I do as a prepper today in just what I have always done, I may have a bigger supply but the dance is still the same.

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  3. As I have put it, I want to at least be able to deal with the odd nastier than usual Winter storm. Most times around here, that means staying home a day or night but services remain. Sometimes some fool takes out a pole or something and services take a hit for a few hours. BUT.. a storm knocking things down for several days is not unheard of, merely rare and "somewhere else" (so far!).

    I hope to be able to deal with worse, but I won't make any Great Claims. And if, on the other side of All This Nonsense it turns out I have a bunch of unused stuff and look the kook? HALLELUJAH! Mere kookhood is the Best Case!

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  4. >in an era of growing environmental volatility
    Not that it necessarily applies here, but that statement would make me double-check anything presented as 'fact' in the article.
    That kind of statement is often tossed in as an aside, as it was here. Maybe it's just a way to deflect envirocriticism.

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  5. too many people think they have to do the freeze dry stock up to prepare. a survival pantry good for 1 to 2 years is doable MUCH cheaper if you research first. go calorie dense and forgo name brands and even with the current price surge you can make a big difference in your future comfort levels starting today.

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  6. I just checked the price of hard white winter wheat as sold through Walmart in the Augusta brand in four gallon buckets. About 5 to 10 years ago I bought 20 or so buckets for $16 each. Just before I posted this I checked it and it is $64. I don't know what month of the year it was when I bought it before. General prices I believe are going up. The wheat may just be at this month of the year usually high and I really don't know what the market variation is throughout the year. If you have space and some extra funds then buying little by little seems wise for the things you actually use. We really enjoy the fresh wheat bread baked at home.

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  7. People who prep are considered NUTS by society because they put stuff up "for a rainy day." Our RECENT ancestors and even many still living would be calling SOCIETY nuts, given how close to the edge it lives! Heck; most HOUSES aren't designed to store more than, say, a week's worth of food, and most people don't even put up THAT much!

    ...So few see it coming...

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  8. It's not too late...

    30 pounds of rice stored in mason jars, 30 cans of something protein, 30 cans of vegies, 30 cans of fruit.
    The cost is not that bad, it doesn't take up that much space and will keep for a long time sitting in the back corner of a closet or in the basement.
    It ought to get you through a month of no food... if in 10 years you toss it out it was only around $100...

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  9. My father was a prepper before we had a word for it. He grew up in the Depression, where his mother's life savings vanished almost overnight. He always had canned food, matches, spare batteries, candles, firewood and ammunition. A severe ice storm paralyzed our neighborhood, but Dad fired up the gas stove, broke out the lanterns and the brandy and invited some of our half-frozen neighbors over for some hot soup and fellowship. When he died, we found enough supplies that guests at his wake were gifted a can of Spam and a Swiss Army knife in his memory.

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  10. The inflow I've been receiving from my decade/cohort (I don't know what cutsey name you want to give our group, but we are the people still living born in the U.S. between '35 and '45): 9 out of ten of us feel that if we are unable to purchase food or heat at reasonable cost with our savings, or have a relatively inexpensive, simple means available to get to our doctors, we would sooner die in the vanguard effecting a total regime change in this country.

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  11. I remember back in 2005 when the Avian Flu outbreak in China first caught my attention. Even though I've always had a "stash" of food, meds, and other supplies, I started seriously prepping for TEOTWAWKI. I clearly remembered the Swine Flu fiasco, SARS, and the Reston Ebola story that took place only a few miles from my home. I had/still have zero faith in the Govt wanting to protect me. I worked for the Govt in DC for many years - I knew that it only planned to protect itself. My family and I would be considered acceptable losses.

    So, the first thing I bought a lot of was toilet paper. I use a lot of TP. It's not just for bum-wiping after all, as my snotty nose attests. My DH thought I was nuts and didn't hesitate to say so. I acknowledged that he was possibly right - maybe we didn't need to be prepping like rabid squirrels. BUT - TP doesnt go bad and if I was right, we would be in good shape. Might even be able to help friends and family. OTOH, if he was right, and we didn't need it, the worst that would happen would be we'd just have an attic full of toilet paper that we would eventually use.

    I am now considered by The Family to be the Queen of Preppers. I have taught them all well.

    If you haven't already started prepping, hop to it, Laddie. The times, they are a-changing.

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  12. MR Tumnus here,

    The Port of Vancouver averages about 60 inches of rain per year with the majority of it coming down from October through March and the wettest month is November. Rail grain cars are belly dumping hoppers that are pulled through a covered 'shed' to be unloaded at the grain terminal. That leaves just the ship's cargo doors which I'd think would be covered.

    So, the excuse that the grain is not getting to the ships due to rain is bogus smoke and lies. The Vancouver News is constantly using the new buzzword "Atmospheric River" even though it's just two inches of rain over two days from a storm like usual.

    Something else must be restricting the flow of grain from the Canadian Prairies to the port.

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  13. I mean, my dad grew up on a dairy farm out in the boonies. His family always put up food for the winter, etc., etc. My mom's family were also from farm stock, and lived in hurricane country. Being prepared is good sense, and besides, my religion suggests at least three months' supply of basics for every household (though few indeed follow that advice).
    Food and hygiene security isn't some far-out craziness, it's what people used to do in order to survive.
    It's surprising how much food is STILL simply wasted, that could be preserved or shared around. My dad, for example, gets 'chicken bread' from a local bakery on the weekends. Our chickens eat some of it, sure, but the majority goes to church, and it rarely comes back home with us. Our local university has a program where homeowners with excess produce can get someone out to pick it and preserve it, thus reducing waste and helping poor college kids nutritionally. Despite shipping challenges, I'm willing to bet that a lot of the shortage problem is caused by boxed-in thinking about what preparedness looks like. Preparedness is not a state of being as much as a mindset. Go forth and be creative about sourcing your food!
    Also, it doesn't matter how small your piece of land is. Switch out decorative shrubs and trees for food-producing ones, and create your own food forest. If you grow weird enough plants, no one but you will know how to prepare them. Quinces, hazelnuts, mulberries, and sunchokes are not only delicious, they're extra nutritious - and lovely plants in their own right. :D

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  14. "Wheat shortages"

    And if the Feds catch you growing your own for your own use, they'll come down on you like a ton of bricks.

    Because you growing your own interferes with the big producers' ability to sell it to you.

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  15. To Feather Blade: Maybe it is what Stalin did to the kulaks after all, but they didn't have the means to protect themselves. Prepping is meant to give us a chance, it is not a guarantee.

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