Two forecasts for 2023

 

We'll see in due course whether either forecast, or both, come(s) to pass.

First, Brandon Smith thinks the economy is in for an even harder time next year.

Supply and demand, debt and deficit, money velocity and inflation; these things cannot be ignored. If the system is out of balance, collapse will set its ugly foot down somewhere and there’s nothing anyone including central banks can do about it. In fact, there are times when they deliberately ENGINEER collapse.

This is the situation we are currently in today as 2022 comes to a close. The Fed is in the midst of a rather aggressive rate hike program in a “fight” against the stagflationary crisis that they created through years of fiat stimulus measures. The problem is that the higher interest rates are not bringing prices down, nor are they really slowing stock market speculation. Easy money has been too entrenched for far too long, which means a hard landing is the most likely scenario.

. . .

My position is that the central bank has a global agenda that eclipses any national loyalty, and that it requires the decline of the American economy in order to expedite the introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) linked together through the IMF. So far they are getting exactly what they want and they are perfectly aware of what they are doing.

. . .

High energy prices and supply chain disruptions will mean ongoing inflated prices in goods and services well into 2023, even with a contraction in jobs markets and stock markets ... I suggest readers stock provision whenever possible and organize within their local communities before next April.

There's more at the link.

Frankly, I think Brandon Smith's comments are too mild.  I expect serious economic mayhem around the world next year as the economic seeds sown over the past couple of decades, and the massive and highly inflationary infusion of additional money supply into world markets over the past two to three years, all take effect.  Supply chain issues are merely the icing on the economic cake, so to speak.

(To cite only one current example, look how many critical medications, including the antibiotic Amoxicillin, are currently in very short supply.  That's not just a problem in the USA or Canada, but worldwide - and the only source of supply is China, all others having ceased production due to unfavorable economic conditions.  At present, according to our local pharmacy, they're having trouble sourcing no less than seven commonly prescribed medications, leading to delays of up to two weeks in getting them to patients.  Others are getting very expensive, unaffordably so for many patients (for example, insulin).  To avoid running into those problems, I've worked hard in recent months to increase our reserves of the medications prescribed for our family.  Both of us are dependent on certain prescribed medications for our ongoing health, and it might be life-threatening to be without them:  so I have no hesitation in making sure we have reserves in hand, in case of more shortages.  I can only suggest to my readers that if you're in that situation, you should do likewise.)

Gonzalo Lira is a name familiar to many readers.  He was an astute economic commentator until a few years ago, when he dropped out of sight.  Turns out he went to Ukraine.  He's been reporting on the war there, and resuming his economic and political commentaries as well.  Note that he has no economic vested interest in this country, and can therefore be objective in his comments.

Mr. Lira has bad feelings about what may come to our country next year.  I don't know if he's right, but if he is . . . it's not good news.

So, there you have it.  Economically and politically, it doesn't look good - but then, it hasn't for a while, has it?  Take these warnings as reminders to prepare as best we can.  If the worst doesn't happen, we can relax;  if it does, we're better prepared for it than we otherwise would have been.  I'll take either option as a win compared to doing nothing.

Peter