"The Future of American Policing"

 

Greg Ellifritz, whom we've met in these pages on several previous occasions, has written an article with that title in which he covers the current state of American policing and what that portends for the future.  It isn't comfortable reading.

As I see it, there are four primary cultural drivers that will affect police work in the future.

1) Protests/Police Hate- It’s becoming ever harder to be a cop ... Now every use of force is a complaint and/or a lawsuit. Now every police shooting involves threats and protests at the officers’ houses and a doxxing of his entire family.  Often these protests and threats are organized by uninvolved virtue signaling “community activists” who have no connection to the event and lack even a fundamental knowledge of the legal rules by which officers operate ... In most communities, the residents distrust the police.  Administrators now bow to community pressure to suspend or fire every officer who gets involved in some politically distasteful event.

2) General government “defunding” due to pandemic economic decline/collapse.  I think the economy will get far worse in the next couple years ... Government revenues are going to drop significantly.  That affects police budgets.  Then we have the active efforts to “defund” the police by cutting budgets even further.  Both of these conditions will reduce police numbers, police salaries, and police equipment budgets.  That will drive even more officers away from police careers.

3). Distrust for and politicization of all government entities.  Public approval of almost all government functions is at an all time low.  The generalized distrust of government  and politicians will further erode the public’s support of the police and young applicants’ desire to become part of the system.

4). The rise in technology (especially surveillance and AI facial recognition technology).  Within the next decade, we will see more surveillance cameras in public areas.  Use of drones and “shot spotter” type systems will increase.  Future criminals will not be caught by cops on patrol.  They will be identified by a guy sitting at a desk running surveillance video through facial recognition software. 

When I look at those four trends all occurring simultaneously, I can predict the generalized future of policing in America.  Here’s what I prognosticate…

Fewer and fewer people will want to be cops. That will further lower hiring and training standards.  Tax revenue losses and “defunding efforts” will drive salaries down and make working conditions more difficult.  The only folks who will become cops in the future are those people who have no other career options.

As more and more low quality candidates are hired, public trust for the police will further erode.  The police will become continually more corrupt and inept until they are almost useless.

The really good cops (and a lot of former soldiers) will move on to better paying private security positions. The rich will hire those security people as bodyguards and neighborhood patrols.

The middle class and poor well have to contend with the corrupt police system or take care of things themselves (either by vigilante or gang action.)

This is essentially how it works in many third world countries.

. . .

Most of you will be forced to take care of yourself and your family.  Unless you are wealthy or politically connected, the cops won’t be coming to help you in the future.  Your options are to improve individual skill levels to be able to personally handle violent actors, band up with friends or family to create a numerical advantage for vigilante action, or increase your economic status enough to live in a “protected” area.

I believe things are going to look very different in America 10 years from now.  Most of those changes will be negative.  I don’t see any way to stop it or alter the trends.  Most of our country will look more like the developing world than the environment we currently enjoy.  Be ready for when that occurs.  It will happen far more rapidly than you might think.

There's more at the link.

I can't disagree with any of Mr. Ellifritz's prognostications.  They're what I'm seeing myself, and what I've seen in many Third World nations over several decades.  They're also part of why I've repeatedly warned my readers to get out of big "blue" American cities NOW, while they have the chance.  These trends will make themselves felt most powerfully and most quickly in those cities.  It's already happening.  The further away you are from them, the less they'll affect you - and the better you'll be able to "take care of yourself and your family", as Mr. Ellifritz advises.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Peter