Peter Ziehan has a short but very interesting video analyzing population growth and decline in the Arab world, correlating it to oil income and the expansion of their food supply that it fueled, and what might happen if the oil income and/or food supply are impinged. It's worth your time to watch it.
Food for thought, particularly for Israel and Iran, neither of which is part of the Arab world but both of which will be directly and immediately affected by developments there.
Peter
I think that Peter Zeihan's predictions tend to be a bit exaggerated but not necessary false. To be more specific the food crisis in the region, while probable it will not have catastrophic dimensions - at least not from the beginning. There are too many interests in their oil & gas for the rest of the world not to intervene to reduce the problem and avoid critical political turmoil, otherwise the oil spigot stops pouring.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand when things start getting problematic, that's when the extremists can find improved recruitment opportunities for their crazy ideologies and that's going to be an increasing problem for the rest of the world...
Slaveocracies, didn't the Egyptians try that out back around 1,300 BC or so ? Did not go so well for them in the end.
ReplyDeleteIIRC, part of the "Arab Spring" was governments trying to reduce the subsidies they spent keeping food basics cheap for their poor - who even with the subsidies were spending 40% or more of their income on food.
ReplyDeleteWhen they could no longer afford the most basic food, it was the last straw...
There is no oil in Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Oman or Yemen. They will not just fade away.
ReplyDeleteLibya has a very large black African migrant labor force. It started with Gaddafi and oil. Probably fewer Libyans actually have "real" jobs than just about any other country.
ReplyDeleteUAE military is choke full of PMCs types from all around the world. Colombians, Brits, various Black African nations. I think the only natives in service are senior officer corps