Writing at The Last Refuge, Sundance examines how the economy is doing - really doing, in the real world, as against what the talking heads and politicians are telling you it's doing. He offers some worthwhile advice.
When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook ... Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.
. . .
It’s not a recovery now, it will not be a recovery this year.
On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021. However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden.
Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.
. . .
If you want to know what’s going on in the larger U.S. economy, just look around you.
Don’t turn on the television and read the newspaper to see what is happening in the U.S. economy for your purchasing or life planning. Just look around you.
Look at restaurants and bars. Do you see continued high-volume business or not.
Look at the grocery stores. Do you see continued optimism, or not.
Look at the malls and shopping centers. Do you see foot traffic, or not.
Look at the real estate in your neighborhood – your local view. Do you see prices going up or going down.
That’s the reality of the economy as it impacts you….. and critically, that’s the reality of the economy nationwide.
When it comes to data and economics, do not let the media created ‘illusion of the thing‘ cloud your ability to see the reality of the thing.
Trust your instincts.
There's more at the link.
Good advice, and very important, too. We can no longer trust our political and business leaders - not to mention our globalist, oligarch-controlled news media - to tell us the truth about our economy. They're all using smoke and mirrors, deflecting us from the truth and trying to persuade us that everything's going swimmingly. It's not, of course. Remember the chart I posted on Monday, and its linked article?
That's not a healthy economy at all. That's an economy, and a nation, a perilously short step away from bankruptcy.
As I've said so often before in these pages: in economic terms, keep your powder dry. We're going to need it.
Peter
But, But, BUT Yellen just released a statement that the US Economy is doing "Exceptionally GOOD".
ReplyDeleteWe are doing an accelerated version of Wiemer Germany. When once you had to Print and issue 10 Million Mark bills to buy a cup of coffee, we can simply ADD more electronic digits to the EBT card.
Pity the Fed can "Print" MOAR Money but cannot "Print" a single loaf of bread to Buy with those electronic digits.
Venezuela THAT's for Dinner.
Things will get spicy when the Gimme Dats EBT cards DESPITE all that "Emergency Extra Funding" cannot feed them.
Protect your family. Got stored foods? Safe water? Ability to repair your shelter? Trusted friends and most important Faith in God?
The Test time is getting near. It's not graded on a curve.
What Michael said. But he may be understating it, wait for the panic of the normies. Remember the panic over toilet paper? What about when it becomes about food? Be pr4epared, the biblical story of the seven fat and then seven lean years applies here. When things go it won't be over quickly, the last one took 10+ years and there is no reason to think it won't be worse this time.
ReplyDeleteIn addition to what he listed, how many years of new underwear or other clothing do you have? How about hygiene items, especially female hygiene items? Dish soap or clothes washing soap or house cleaning products may be in short supply, or too expensive. Just think about all of the other daily use stuff you'd need.
GET OUT OF DEBT! If you think the loan rate on your house or car or anything else is fixed read you loan agreement. There is a clause that allows the lender to call in that loan at any time, and suddenly you don't own that house, you are a renter. What businessman would continue taking 5% when the going rate is 25%? Remember the Carter years anyone?
Sprouts grocery (think WholeFoods lite) is closing a local store. Only 2 years into a 5 year lease. Moderately high income very near premier WORLD renowned medical center. Tops for Heart and cancer research.
ReplyDeleteLots of car traffic & better grade apartments/condos in walking distance
I have a problem with that graph.
ReplyDeleteI assume the green "Revenue" part refers to federal revenue. The graph shows a sharp downturn over the last few years.
But the feds report a rise in revenue from 4 trillion dollars to almost 5 trillion over the last two years. See the feds data here:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/#federal-revenue-trends-over-time
What am I missing?
---Steve
On a Tangent, but close.
ReplyDeleteHas anybody noticed that the shelf life of milk is getting shorter & shorter?
I have had to throw away the last four Half Gallon Jugs, of milk, both 2% and whole. Ever jug has gone sour 3-5 days before the expire date printed on the bottle.
And this is a 'hard' sour, with chunks, not just a little "blinky". Today's jug was half full. Purchased last Sunday, date coded until 4-16-23.
We have been having more, and more trouble with expired milk over the last few months, but it is getting worse. We switched from Gallons to Half Gallons, to try to cut the waste. It worked for a while, but now that has stopped working.
By the Way, the milk is coming from several different stores.
Winco, Alberton's (Vons), Wal-mart, and even Rite-Aid!
If fewer people are buying milk then it'll stay on the shelf longer and have a shorter use by date... Prob the issue now that supply chains have caught up to covid demands but consumers largely back to pre-covid behavior. But if not date, it could also be stored at higher temps in the warehouse/trucks/stores for energy savings.
DeleteBut we get organic milk in half-gallon paper cartons (primarily HEB Central Market or Target brands) and no issue we've seen.
Skwab:
ReplyDeleteBig staffing issues means those pallets of food sit out too long until someone eventually puts them in the fridge. Or maybe the milk is from discontented cows.
@Steve
ReplyDeleteThe figure in the post ends in 2020 whereas the link you posted shows the jump happening 2020 - 2022. The downturn you mention does show up in the treasury graph. The numbers don't look like they match but the treasury's graph is using 2022 dollars which I doubt is true for the other (though it would have been nice if they'd included the benchmark year).
The other thing to keep in mind is that, as alluded to, the treasury is using inflation adjusted numbers. Our esteemed host has had a lot to say about official inflation figures, none of it complementary. It's possible that a chunk of the recent growth is due to 'unofficial' inflation.
@Skwab
Check your refrigerator. I had the same thing happen to me a while back and it turned out the thermostat in the fridge was malfunctioning.
@ Anonymous
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment.
The graph in Peter's post looks like it's dated 30.06.2021. I assumed that was June 30, 2021 and that the graph was up to date.