That's the headline to an article by Mike Shelby, perhaps better known for his extensive coverage of developments in this country at the "Forward Observer" Web site. Here's an excerpt. Read it in the light of our discussion about Antifa earlier this morning.
The unsettling reality is that America in the not-too-distant future is going to have a lot in common with partial-collapse societies of Eastern Europe and Latin America where gangs have more power and influence than the government; where politicians pass the laws but gangs enforce the rules.
This is the Gray Zone America you should be preparing for — not quite collapsed, but not quite standing.
. . .
Social intimidation and political violence are valuable tools that don’t have to be directly connected to a political party. In many low intensity conflicts, political parties wield their own militant wings but attempt to maintain some plausible deniability.
Sinn Fein and the IRA. The Baath Party and Naqshabandi (Iraq). The Sadrist Party and Jaysh al-Mahdi (also Iraq). ISCI and the Badr Corps (also Iraq).
The 2016 and 2020 election seasons gave us a small taste of political street gangs. Because this "local muscle” is powerful, we’re probably going to see a lot more of it.
At the extreme end of the spectrum ... collusion between the political and criminal classes means that you can never be safe as a dissident. Political parties can use violence freely by ordering it and then protecting those who carry it out.
I have three general takeaways:
First, herein lies my problem with the Bugout Bag Industrial Complex:
Your bugout bags, fire starters, and lensatic compasses don’t solve this problem. There is no paracord bracelet on earth, nor stack of freeze dried food that can turn back the tide of government-gang collusion.
Playing defense, bugging in, and praying to God that no one bothers you is a losing strategy.
Second, I cannot possibly stress strongly enough the importance of controlling your own local politics.
The “power politics” of the Cultural Revolution is no longer a Chicago or Seattle problem. Political decay is creeping into suburban and rural areas.
The armies of enraged parents attending meetings, building networks, taking over school boards, and winning local political seats are doing the heaviest lifting.
The political, social, and economic power you build at the local level prevents the other guy from doing this to you.
Third, there is no defensive strategy that wins.
You have to build political, social, and economic power. You have to win seats at the local level. You have to agitate, community organize, and build a local social movement. And you have to either find wealthy donors or run businesses that employ your tribe and turn a profit so you can fund these initiatives.
There's more at the link. Highly recommended reading.
I can't stress too strongly that Mr. Shelby is describing conditions that already exist in America.
- Politicians in Chicago openly court criminal gangs to bring out the vote for them, and provide political "cover" for them in return.
- Antifa extremists effectively control large parts of cities such as Seattle, WA (remember "CHAZ"/"CHOP"?) and Portland, OR (where police until recently allowed them to get away with almost any crime).
- Individuals seeking to defend themselves against crime and/or politically motivated violence are likely to be targeted and victimized by left-wing prosecutors and police forces. I've discussed this extensively in the past.
Mr. Shelby refers to a documentary titled "Arkan's Legacy" about a criminal/nationalist gang in Serbia, seeing many of its features as similar to what he's finding in this country.
Having watched it, I'm forced to agree with him. Too many progressive-left-dominated American cities do resemble what the documentary portrays. It's a chilling prospect . . . but a prophetic one for most of us. I therefore second his recommendation that you watch it for yourself. It's very similar to what I saw and experienced "on the ground" in many Third World nations, and it's what's already among us in parts of America today.
It's going to spread, too. To cite just one example, the Biden administration is admitting up to 30,000 "refugees" every month from Haiti and a few other nations to this country. Haiti is a lawless nightmare, dominated by ruthless gangs that slaughter their opponents. What makes you think at least some of those "refugees" won't bring that "culture" with them? And what makes you think it won't spread to our cities as they settle there?
I'm not saying that all of America will end up like that - far from it! In the area where I live, there are more than enough level-headed people to "take care of business" if necessary, and ensure that we don't descend to that level. There are still many areas like that. However, the same can't be said for other parts of this benighted nation. If you live in one of them, move out as soon as you can, and come to "free America" where you can contribute to the safety, security and well-being of people who are still in their right minds.
Peter
In the area where I live, there are more than enough level-headed people to "take care of business" if necessary, and ensure that we don't descend to that level.
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Uh, no. Hopeful thinking.
The articles explain it. The deciding factor, as I've said for years, is the local police. Your neighbors arent going to meet the facists with firearms and arent prepared to shoot them if necessary, no matter how much thier politics agree with yours. Oh they might like to, but the police wont allow it. The deciding factor will be which "side" the police come down on. As the follow-on article suggests, normal public peace laws are inadequate to handle the situation so the "judgement of the police/da will decide the day.
The Blue gang will decide who prevails, and who controls them?
Like Anon above, I think you wildly overestimate the level headed nature of the people around you. Unless you are over an hour drive from any population center of more than 5 to 10,000 and up. I live in a small town, which is definitely a town whose social structure and local government can be defined as 'level headed'. That matters not a bit, if the large city (not that large, low 6 figures) 45 minutes from us controls state and county politics. Which it does. More crucially, we have an increasing crime problem that is not local: stolen cars are used to make raids, in a radius of about an hour drive, from where the gangs actually live. If your address is within that radius, assume you will be subject to it. Also assume that the local police will not be able to get any support from the state or big city police in catching the people, even if they want to.
ReplyDeleteWell, since we know the 'blue gang', we know which side our local folks are on.
ReplyDelete"Playing defense, bugging in, and praying to God that no one bothers you is a losing strategy."
ReplyDeleteThat depends on your point of view of "losing." My plan is such a total defensive strategy, in order to kill as many "zombies" coming my way as possible, saving the last round for my own cranium. Me living long enough to re-start civilization is a non-starter on every level.
"Your neighbors arent going to meet the facists with firearms and arent prepared to shoot them if necessary, no matter how much thier politics agree with yours"
ReplyDeleteBZZZZZZZZZZZZT Wrong.
Antifa tried multiple times in 2020 to go outside the strongholds where the police protected them. Every time the local citizens presented weapons and kicked them out immediately. The primary function of the police in those places was to peacefully escort the thugs out of town.
And that was *before* Kyle was found not guilty.
America is balkanizing to a great extent.
ReplyDeleteLocation, Location, Location.
ReplyDeleteStill the vital factor. The "Bayou" That our Renaissance Man live in, is one of the better ones, and if I were not so heavily invested in the one I'm in now, I'd give serious consideration to joining my friends there.
However, the one I'm in now has some good spots and is not nearly so far gone as a lot of places. Although I'm thinking of getting a bit further from "The Metro" than I am now.
We'll just have to se what the gods have decreed.
Most of those people you believe are on your side, aren't. "Conservative" "Republicans" will snitch you out to the police just as fast as "liberal" "Democrats". They're scouts producing intelligence.
ReplyDeleteThought experiment: imagine telling one of your allies that you killed a policeman after he threatened to prosecute you for your homemade machine gun. What would this "ally" do? Tell the police himself? Repeat this to his buddies, who would tell their buddies, and eventually one of them would tell the police?
You have to win seats at the local level.
Electoral politics is how we got here. Doing more of the same is not going to produce a different result.
BZZZZZZZZZZZZT Wrong.
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Simply confirmed my point; the local police decided who "won".
Also a little apples/oranges; antifa wasnt as brazen then by openly carrying weapons.
But go ahead trusting neighbors/strangers to act in your interests. Can I get your stereo?
> Simply confirmed my point; the local police decided who "won".
ReplyDeleteIf you are trying to argue that the police there decided to let antifa "win" by not getting hte crap kicked out of them, sure.
Ah ... S*!
ReplyDeleteI don't see it much matters anymore - prepare for what you can, but when it comes down to it? Offense? Defense? Murphy rules all.
Dr John said it long ago: Right place wrong time, wrong place right time.
Toss of the die or God's will.
Number of bang-bangs won't make much difference in the long run - I can only handle one at a time anyway. Neither will freeze-dried food supplies or a "properly" equipped bug-out bag. Where would I bug out to anyway? I'm already there. It'll really come down to luck of the draw.
Did the antis hit your place or your neighbors? Was it 2 or 3? Was it a swarm? Did you happen to be in the shower when they hit your place? Maybe out mowing the lawn? Or cleaning your now-empty gun? Or out shopping?
I may be able to take an honor guard with me - probably not - but all in all? I don't expect to live the old age my parents did or even my normal lifespan. Luckily - maybe - I've lived most of my life. Old enough to remember America the Innocent. Only dreams now. Seems like it wasn't that long ago ... but it's been almost 2 generations since Reagan. 30 years since Clinton took office.
Best I can do is enjoy what time remains; pretend life is normal - until I can't ... and for some reason, that feels more like months than years. And me being in a "safe" red place. 80+% for Trump. Trump flags still fly. It either helps or makes us a target.
And do I really want to live my old age in dystopia? (want? like it would be my choice?). That's a young man's game.
Best of luck to all of us and as Red Skelton used to say: "God bless".
1969. Utube dot com/watch?v=Sk3sURDS4IA
balkanization
ReplyDeleteHere's a kooky idea: we could make 50 administrative subregions, each with their own legislature, to make differing laws appropriate to local conditions. We could call the overall federated arrangement 'these United Subregions' or something. To prevent bankruptcy of subregions we could demand they issue money only as gold or silver.
My point is, such an arrangement has been tried, and it's not stable against people who want to centralize.
>>>Number of bang-bangs won't make much difference in the long run - I can only handle one at a time anyway. Neither will freeze-dried food supplies or a "properly" equipped bug-out bag. Where would I bug out to anyway? I'm already there. It'll really come down to luck of the draw.
ReplyDeleteDid the antis hit your place or your neighbors? Was it 2 or 3? Was it a swarm? Did you happen to be in the shower when they hit your place? Maybe out mowing the lawn? Or cleaning your now-empty gun? Or out shopping?<<<
We all have reasonable projections about how this might all shake out. Most will be correct in some locations and wrong in others. A lot of the insight here is predicated on an unsuspecting victim who is maintaining a peacetime routine. I predict for myself there will come a time when I am up all night watching the perimeter and I get my sleep mid day under protection from my family, possibly in a tent out in my woodlot if the house is not safe. The whole point of choosing a sensible rural location is to buy time while the cities burn. The supplies laid back are intended to reduce the requirement to leave the homestead while the crisis unfolds. Work has to be done and crops tended off course, doing this under arms if the situation requires is a thing. Barn guns are a thing.
Much of this depends upon who is attacking you. It could be Antifa night raiders, urban mobs, local drug fiends, desperate homeless types, county sheriff's office, State police SWAT, Various Federales in SWAT gear, or a DHS drone with a Hellfire. Sensible preparations mitigate quite a bit of this and what cannot be avoided or prevented, like DHS droning your house, is why you have some kind of bugout plan in mind. You may not need to walk for a week to the Northern wilderness, you might be able to get by in the nearby mountains you hunt in every year until the situation improves. My point is to be flexible and focus on preparing for the wide range of threats and conditions.
All really good points made here.
ReplyDeleteI live in a fairly affluent town about 20 miles outside Raleigh, NC. It is known as a conservative place to live and there is very little crime- or “diversity.” It’s not a coincidence that one follows the other.
But this is changing, mostly because of the town council’s addiction to growth. There are new apartments being built almost everywhere- and apartments mean transients, which in this instance will be mostly Hispanics- some (most?) of whom will likely be undocumented, and younger singles or couples who cannot afford a home. We moved here from Raleigh in 2021 after downsizing and retirement, and in just 2 years I can sense a different “feel” to the town.
As far as our neighbors, I would describe some as sharing my views, but most of the others that I have met are so absorbed in their lives and careers that they will fall hard when America goes belly up and they will be among the majority who have built their “houses” on sand. Those who do not have a vacation home in the mountains or at the beach to escape to will likely come knocking on doors seeking a handout when their food is gone.
I am increasingly disabled, pushing 70, and we have no place to bug out to, so we will have to stay put when society collapses. My point here is that I have no illusions about our safety- the unwashed in Raleigh will eventually cover the 20 miles and get to our neighborhood when their resources are exhausted - nor about our neighbors. And while my wife is no the Pollyanna she used to be, I still cannot convince her of her need to even carry pepper spray when going somewhere alone. She remains about as situationally aware as a hibernating bear. I am convinced that unless Christ returns to take us all home beforehand, we will be forced to defend our home and our lives and will probably lose them. So be it- we will just be with God sooner.
Most of the folks in these comments are ostriches. They are claiming it can’t happen in their small towns because the police won’t allow it. It’s already happening in those towns. I know of rural towns in North Texas where you have elementary kids transitioning. You can bet your salary that those parents are actively voting in local elections. A very scary former special police door kicker now trainer once stated that “100 % of Federal officers will follow orders. 99% of State and City officers will. At the County level it will be 75%”. We’ve already seen Texas cops stand down when Antifa is active. Folks need to understand that you cannot expect rational behavior from members of this cult. The only thing they are concerned with is gaining power and status by advancing the cults doctrines and they will crush unclean wrongthinkers by any means available legal and otherwise…..
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