So much for sanctions and technology, redux

 

A little over a year ago I noted that many Russian weapons were using US-made microchips and other hardware.  Following the outbreak of the Ukraine war the USA implemented strict sanctions to prevent Russia getting its hands on US technology to power its weapons.  However, it looks like they're not working as well as they should.

Russia is stepping up production of one of its most effective weapons, the Lancet-3 loitering munition or kamikaze drone. Television news footage shows a massive new facility with hundreds of the weapons being manufactured as the makers claim that production is being tripled.

. . .

The Lancet-3 has proven lethally effective in Ukraine. It has an eight-foot wingspan, weighs about 35 pounds and cruises at about 70 mph with a range of 25 miles and a highly effective anti-tank warhead: videos show Lancets apparently taking out Leopard 2 tanks and a wide range of other targets including artillery, anti-aircraft systems, personnel carriers, command posts. While there is a question over just what the hit rate is – misses may greatly outnumber hits – a large number of Lancets could do a lot of damage. Defense thinktank RUSI notes that the Lancet is becoming become Russia’s preferred weapon for counter-battery strikes, possibly for its ability to find and target artillery which has moved away from its firing position ... the Lancet relies on an imported U.S.-made Jetson TX2 chip for its brains ... this has already been superseded and NVIDIA now produce a successor, the Jetson Orin with around 200 times more computing power. It is an open question what sort of processors Zakharov can now acquire and in what numbers.

Zakharov says that the new production facility has been funded by State money, although it is not clear that any new order has been placed. The difficulties of the Russian procurement system appeared to have caused delays with getting Lancet-3s out, which is why they only started appearing in numbers several months after the invasion. Bendett quotes publicly-available Russian sources saying that the lancet costs about 3 million roubles or $35,000.

Meanwhile Russian volunteer groups are producing small FPV attack drones by the hundred, and the Russians continue to bombard Ukraine with larger Iranian-made Shahed loitering munitions – at least 25 of them in the Southern region on the night of 17th July according to Anton Gerashchenko, Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs. After a poor start, Russia is now embracing a new type of warfare with different sized of low-cost kamikazes for short, medium and longer ranges in what is increasingly becoming a war of drones. Whether Russia’s reality can match Zakharov’s claims is another matter.

There's more at the link.

Of course, one can't fully trust any reports coming out of either Russia or Ukraine.  Both sides are lying through their teeth, and most "news" from the combat zone turns out to be more or less propaganda.  Nevertheless, enough video footage of the current situation has emerged to demonstrate that the Lancet-3 drone is effective against Western-supplied armor.  Here's a Russian-sourced video clip illustrating how it works.  Bear in mind that this video is heavy on the propaganda, and is not necessarily a reliable news source.  I include it here only to show the Lancet-3 at work.

I'm not surprised to see that US-made components are getting through to Russia despite stringent international sanctions.  There's too much money to be made by selling them to stop the trade entirely.  Indeed, so-called "dual-use" technology (that may be used for civilian or military purposes) is almost impossible to stop, as consumer goods using it can be bought openly, shipped to their destination, and the technology extracted there for use in weapons systems.  (I previously described one way in which South Africa did this during the international arms embargo against that country.)

Russia also seems to be using its modern weapons more effectively.  It can't afford to make many advanced tanks and other major armament systems, but by turning to technologically more sophisticated systems like the Lancet-3 it's reducing its dependence on older systems and gaining flexibility.  Ukraine did surprisingly well to turn back the initial invasion efforts, but I think it'll find it more and more difficult to make headway against an increasingly efficient and better-equipped Russian military.  The war is turning into a technology-against-technology struggle, and the human factor seems to be less and less critical on the battlefield.

That's why it'll really suck to be a grunt on tomorrow's battlefield.  You're likely to become no more than a casualty statistic, without ever knowing what gee-whiz technology wiped you out.  At present most such weapons have a human operator, but increasingly they're becoming fully automated, making their own decisions about who and what to kill without any consideration of humanity or mercy.  Microchips murder without feelings or conscience, which is why I expect them to dominate future armed conflicts.  I suspect prisoners of war are going to become a rare breed . . . it's much cheaper and simpler to use technology to kill the enemy, rather than capture him, feed him, treat his wounds and house him.

I fear that such an approach may come to dominate internal security systems and policing as well, in nations that don't bother with inconveniences such as human rights.  As far as they're concerned, warehousing dissidents and criminals in prisons is expensive, so why not save money by disposing of them once and for all?

Peter