Some readers have asked why, having made such a fuss about the coming food shortages over the past year or two, I haven't continued to write about it. A few have rather nastily suggested I was wrong, and that I'm trying to ignore that rather than admit it.
Sorry, guys, but I was right, and the food crisis is in full cry. Its effect in the USA has largely been to increase the price we pay for food - ask anyone who regularly shops for their household about what they've seen with food prices over the past two to three years. Almost all are up by double-digit percentages; some have doubled or more. The Daily Meal lists 13 foods that are likely to be in short supply (and a lot more expensive) in the USA in 2023. They include beef, eggs and other staples.
Overseas, the situation is considerably worse.
At a press briefing in New York, Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme, said ... that some of the countries where the needs are the greatest, are also where funding for relief operations are declining, forcing humanitarians to reduce or cut assistance.
“In WFP’s case, we have to make impossible trade-offs of prioritizing assistance,” he said, adding that the UN agency is in the midst of “a crippling funding crisis, which is forcing us to scale back life-saving assistance right as acute hunger is hitting record levels.”
At least 38 of WFP’s 86 country operations have experienced cuts or are planning to scale down food assistance programmes, including in Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine, Yemen, and several countries in West Africa.
“Less funding means WFP is forced to stop assisting people who are only in the category of ‘crisis level’, this is so that we can save those who are literally starving – the category of catastrophic hunger,” said. Mr. Skau.
He explained that due to these cuts, people at “crisis levels” of hunger, will fall into “catastrophic levels”, further raising humanitarian needs in the future if the food security situation globally does not improve.
“We are entering a humanitarian doom loop – where we save people who are starving, at the cost of millions of others falling closer into that same category.”
There's more at the link.
India has just banned the export of a common variety of rice. It is (or, rather, was) the world's biggest exporter of rice, so this will make things even worse for the many countries where rice is the staple diet.
On 20 July, India banned exports of non-basmati white rice in an attempt to calm rising domestic prices at home ... India is the world's top rice exporter, accounting for some 40% of the global trade in the cereal. (Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the US are the other top exporters).
Among the major buyers of rice are China, the Philippines and Nigeria. There are "swing buyers" like Indonesia and Bangladesh who step up imports when they have domestic supply shortages. Consumption of rice is high and growing in Africa. In countries like Cuba and Panama it is the main source of energy.
. . .
Not surprisingly, July's export ban has sparked worries about runaway global rice prices. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas reckons the ban would drive up prices and that global grain prices could rise up to 15% this year ... More than half of the rice imports in around 42 countries originate from India, and in many African nations, India's market share in rice imports surpasses 80%, according to Ifpri.
Again, more at the link.
We're amazingly fortunate to be living in a country that can afford almost unlimited imports of the foods we need and want, and where most of us can afford to buy them. Things are getting tighter from a cost perspective, and a lot more families are using food banks and SNAP to make ends meet, but we don't currently face widespread actual starvation. There are nations in the world where that's a grim daily reality for a very large proportion of the population right now.
(On the other hand, we're utterly dependent on our distribution and logistics network to bring our food to where it's needed. If that breaks down - and it's already overloaded and straining - then things will get very interesting, very quickly. See "Nine Meals from Anarchy".)
Peter
Sounds like the WFP guy hasn't heard the term "triage."
ReplyDeleteFor every mouth they save that was in "catastrophic hunger" they allow those in "crisis hunger" to become "catastrophic." Eventually, they all become "catastrophic."
At some point, with limited resources, they need to cut their losses and just let the "catastrophic" go in order to keep the "crisis" ones from becoming "catastrophic."
Otherwise, it just becomes a death spiral for everyone.
That is a very painful truth. Almost no one is able to face that, much less act on it.
DeleteBut thanks for the sunny thoughts.
As for the food banks, where I live (in a very rural area), two of my neighbors, who are relatively well off, use the food bank regularly. Both are pensioners (as am I); one lives in a million dollar farmhouse, the other in a very nice house. Both have nice, new cars. You see lines at the food bank with people in $50,000 cars waiting for free food. We grow our own, and drive a 20 year old car that was given to us in a will (and a horse and buggy for close in stuff).
ReplyDeleteWheat is already disastrously short in this country to where the USDA is warning of shortages becoming acute by the end of the year. Our rice crop isn't doing well either. Both corn and soybeans have over fifty percent of the crops in the field in drought areas. Nobody know how bad the harvest will be yet, but it won't be good.
ReplyDeleteNot only are the grain crops a primary source of human food, but one of animal feed also. Expect that prices will continue to soar if meat and eggs are available at all. Storing proteins and animal fats is essential for your and your children's future.
I haven't seen true shortages--as in "nothing on the shelves"--outside the early, panic buying stage of Covid. Still, there has been a steady contraction of choices. The local Walmart, for example, used to have half an aisle of peanut butter, jams and jellies. It gradually shrank until, as of this morning, perhaps 10% of the previous inventory was displayed. Other things have taken up the abandoned space, but whole categories are gone. Need sugar free jelly? No luck. Anything even slightly out of the ordinary, like mint jelly to go with lamb? Nope. Same thing with coffee. Plenty of the hated K cups, but probably half the selection of regular coffee of two years ago. Guess I had better get used to Victory Gin.
ReplyDeleteBoth target and heb's food sections are undergoing a similar re-alignment with much less selection and generally higher prices than it used to be. Regardless of politics, many of super target's food prices on target exclusive brands are lower than grocery stores -- and heb's owner's politics are also left of center...
DeleteWe also added Sam's to our costco warehouse subscription to save additional $ (costco sells more of food we actually eat vs. Sams), and shop Randalls/safeway sales only (their standard prices are significantly higher than heb). And also stop in walmart monthly but their near compulsory (and unlawful search) receipt checking and clientele (fair # of homeless and impoverished in our city) makes the whole thing read danger -- so increasingly just order online what I need from there...
And how many food processing plants have blown up or burned to the ground in the last 24 months?
ReplyDeleteMost of these starvation deaths will be the fault of the World Economic Forum and The World Bank. These organizations ensnare a country with easy credit, and when that country can't make payments the bankers take over country policy; with the first change being to stop growing your own food and only grow cash crops (to pay back the debt). Then countries are no longer food-self-sufficient.
ReplyDeleteAt one time, the US of A supplied rice to the world. Mostly grown in Louisiana.
ReplyDeleteCrazy.
And a lot of food shortages are directly linked to the Nude Green Eel.
However you may feel about the whole UKR v RUS thing... Ukraine supplies an astonishing portion of the world's wheat, and they're having their fields trampled and shipping blocked. Not good.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Ukies (or their Western masters) care about the world's hungry. If they did the Ukies wouldn't have destroyed a purely civilian use ammonia pipeline that ran to a huge Russian nitrogen fertilizer plant. No fertilizer...no food.
DeleteDon't forget the recently cancelled "grain deal". The West was supposed to allow SWIFT access to a single Russian AgBank to settle international sales....the treacherous West never allowed a SINGLE access point to SWIFT. Hence no way to pay Russia.
Lastly, the hub of international shipping insurance in London just "couldn't find a way" to insure any ships seeking to transport Russian grain....but Ukie grain always had insured ships. If you're a ship owner would you carry Russian wheat if you couldn't get insurance??.
The Ukrainian war has destroyed a key global source for fertilizer and food production. Both Russia and Ukraine are off the global markets.
ReplyDeleteThe Green Revolution depends on fertilizer inputs. Without them, food production falls dramatically. Everyone is scrambling to source fertilizer worldwide.
Arab Spring started with spiking food prices.
The contraction of sources is starting. And the IMF is not going to help things with their actions.
ReplyDeleteMajor Problem:
ReplyDeleteEver since the COVID debacle, nobody believes any report coming from any government agency or the media.
"starving people"? The people/animals looting Louis Vouitton stores, et al. ain't starving; they're just expressing their animus against the plantation owners who ask them to pay for what they feel is rightfully theirs by slave inheritance.
The IMF has no desire to help. Just the opposite.
ReplyDeleteThe sooner they crash the dollar, create chaos in the international food markets, and cause social unrest, the sooner they can force implementation of a global CBDC.
Which they need to take control and wipe out all their tremendous debts that can never be repaid as they reset the world financial system. Any country with a large national debt is all in for this.
what i've noticed here in central va. is a very bad crop/garden year despite a very good weather year. it don't add up.
ReplyDeletewhat i've noticed here in central va. is a very bad crop/garden year despite a very good weather year. it don't add up.
ReplyDeleteRiverrider check your soil. Some unwanted additives might be there.
I found a neighbor's problem was adding organic materials to her garden was Roundup contaminated old hay.
A LOT of "Free" horse manure-cow poop also is Roundup contaminated.
Several years in biological active soil to clean up.
Meanwhile use sun blocking tarps to establish your new garden site. I love to help neighbors rake their leaves that I shred and add to my gardens.
Meanwhile a thousand dollars of storage foods is an awesome addition to your larder. I mean rice and beans in 5 gallon pails not "cough" wise "cough.
Third-world standard of living had been steadily rising for decades. To the point where Bob Geldof's Live Aid initiative had become a distant memory, because no one outside of war zones was starving anymore.
ReplyDeleteThe Branch Covidians put paid to that. Their insane lockdowns disrupted global commerce and hit tourism-dependent countries especially hard. It's almost as if Klaus Schwab and his merry band of gentlemen and gentlewomen had factored the starvation-induced deaths of millions into their Great Reset from the start.
By the way, when I mention this to a card-carrying Branch Covidian, all I get in return is a blank stare. Empty eyes, empty souls.
@Michael
ReplyDeleteIt's not Roundup, usually. It's Grazon and other aminopyralids. They're called broadleaf herbicides because they don't kill grass-- they kill everything else though. It's what hay producers spray on their fields to get rid of bindweed, and it's what TruGreen sprays on suburban lawns to get rid of dandelions.
And it's a slow-moving, completely under-reported, ecological catastrophe.
It was released onto the market, apparently with NO studies to find out how long it persists in the soil (years!). It does not break down in animal digestive tracts, and it now contaminates almost every source of hay, manure, or compost (including mushroom compost, which is made from cow manure) that you could possibly bring into your garden or farm. And once you've brought it in, the only way to solve the problem is to scrape off all the soil you applied it to, and try to safely dispose of it, and replace with a clean source of topsoil.
My mother killed her garden some years ago, this way, with a truckload of mushroom compost. It still hasn't recovered. First signs of contamination, if you've got it in your garden, are curled-up leaves and low germination rates. Do a quick search for "grazon contamination" and you'll find pictures. If you garden DO NOT bring in manure, compost (bagged or not-- even commercial stuff is a risk), or hay and straw. Even a farmer you trust, who doesn't use the stuff, may have bought in a little hay for his cows or horses, and that is all it takes.
If we end up running short on chemical fertilizers in the years to come, this shite is going to mean famine in the US. We are at a point now where we *cannot* go back to traditional organic fertilizer sources because they are all contaminated.
Thanks for the correction Just Peachy although Roundup is not much better on non-roundup "ready" garden crops.
ReplyDeleteThe test I've found useful is the pea or bean test.
They grow quickly to first and second leaves and show damage very well from the Roundup-Grazon (and other trade names) toxins.
Scotts Yards make Terrible Graden sites due to their use of Roundup style weed killers.
When looking for a new garden site look for dandelions as they require decent NON-Grazon-Roundup soil to grow well.
You know that dandelions ARE NOT Native to America. Early settlers BROUGHT them for early greens and spring tonics during the early springtime when crops were planted but Harvest was several weeks away.
Spring used to be called the Starving Season" as the root cellars were nearly empty and even the deer were scrawny from winter.
I'm with you on the Roundup-- that stuff is evil, too. Probably there are a few others we don't even know about yet, out there quietly killing backyard gardens.
ReplyDeleteThe worst part is how amazingly persistent these chemicals are. We get over 60 inches of rain on an average year, here, which means darn near everything else washes right out of the soil-- minerals, organic matter, fertilizer-- almost as soon as it's applied. But not the dang chemicals. Those stick around forever, it seems like.
The one key difference between grazon contamination and roundup contamination is the grass thing-- if it's grazon, you can still grow corn, because it's a grass. Not that I'd feel entirely safe eating it.
This guy has some very thorough discussion of the problem, and people's attempts to remediate it:
https://www.thesurvivalgardener.com/?s=grazon
So. I agree with most of what has been said here but something no one has mentioned is that the major corporations that put most of the products on the shelves of grocery stores, I think there is only a handful at this point, in their stockholder meetings discussed their post covid strategies and one was to raise profit margins on food. My opinion is that about 50% of the increased prices on food products is this raised margin. The other 50% is mostly supply and inflation.
ReplyDeleteI apologize that I have no references. This information came from someone that I trust that said he saw it firsthand. So I won't be upset if you are skeptical of my above statement.
I will note my personal and recently come to opinion due to my personal observation of Lood Lion, Wal-Mart, Kroger, Publix, etc shelves and stocking habits. Filtered through my knowledge of their intent to raise the profit margin. As observed by others the overall selection of products is probably half of what it used to be. However, a much larger percentage of the remaining products are now higher-end packaged products with prices 4 and 5x as much by volume/weight, etc. Also, the normal products that are still there are anywhere from 50% to 150% more expensive than they were a year to a year and a half ago.
I could be seeing things there that don't exist but given the very large consolidation of farming land, food pipelines and food manufacture's under a few companies or people (such as bill gates and farmland), it leaves me very concerned given the proven track record of humans to oppress other humans to squeeze out the last bit of resources, power etc... from them given a monopoly, semi monopoly or anti-trust situation.
Oh and when you add the aforementioned number of food processing plants being destroyed over the last few years that stand out in a very significant statistical way :), it leaves my twitchy something is wrong in Denmark spidey sense absolutely going crazy.
In counterpoint there are a lot of articles, .(ok all the articles you can find on a search of Google in the first page or two, that says there is not a major increase in facilities burning and it is all perfectly normal. :)
So what's the vote for destroyed food processing and manufacturing centers.
1. Insurance fraud?
2. Massive infighting among corporations to corner the food market before someone else does it?
3. Foreign nations fishing in troubled waters?
4. They all just had unsafe conditions that let them catch on fire and burn down?