Ed D'Agostino of Mauldin Economics hosts a weekly interview with experts on topics of importance. This week he's joined by George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, boss of Geopolitical Futures, and a leading political scientist. Together they discuss:
- The two Chinas - how the country is divided internally;
- Has Xi already lost control of China? Is there a risk of civil war?
- The military stalemate in Ukraine;
- NATO's dilemma in Ukraine;
- Middle East posturing;
- Why China won't invade Taiwan (I'm not so sure they're right on this one);
- The Middle Eastern country Mr. Friedman sees as most likely to succeed;
- How the US could help end the Ukraine war.
I'm not allowed (due to their terms of service) to reproduce parts of the transcript here, but you'll find the entire thing at this link, if you prefer to read rather than watch the video below. I do highly recommend that you read the one and/or watch the other, because there's some very solid information here - things that may directly and immediately impact the USA, and our lives as individuals, not just as a nation.
Food for thought!
Peter
They're a pair of lunatics echoing the same idiotic strawmen that they pitch to us and to each other. Perhaps the only rational man in Europe right now is Putin. All the rest of the leaders there are either certifiable or just plain evil.
ReplyDeleteWhy would Putin want anything from Europe that he does not already get? The sanctions are not only a joke but they have enriched him, his friends, his allies and his country as it destroys Bretton Wood and US hegemony of the world.
I think Xi saw it coming and is trying to position China to ride out the storm he/we see coming. Everything he does to position China though is going to hurt and disrupt the US. It's no wonder that idiots see China as the boogeyman because otherwise they'd have to deal with their corrupt and inept leaders and bankers.
Orban is pretty rational
DeleteI want whatever George has been smoking, since his last response is total bullshit straight from the current administration.
ReplyDeleteIf nothing else, it's keeping Russia/Putin 'occupied'...
ReplyDeleteRussia losing the war? Ukraine winning?
ReplyDeleteBwahahahaha -wheeze- hahahaha!
Zelenski has gotten 10% of his manpower killed. Not the starting manpower of the military - ten percent of the adult male population. Not that he cares one whit about Ukrainian Christians. And now he's fired the only general that cared enough to push back against him to spare men's lives.
I love how all the pundits have gone from "Ukraine can win" to "a tie is a win". Russia has thrown Ukriane into the Stone Age and destroyed an entire generation of males - something no society can survive. They already won.
ReplyDeleteEcho chamber at its worst.
ReplyDeleteI suspect America has found its own Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.
Spoiler alert, not a good thing for America. We chatter endlessly about China's debt problem and such, but America is about to find out what Weimar Germany found when the Gold Mark was replaced by the paper mark.
I suggest folks read "The Mandibles" or When Money Dies for a hint on how to survive the plummeting to zero value Dollar. A snip from When money dies is when a well-off family's SAVINGS for a Lake side Cabin is saved for emergencies and a couple of years later the WHOLE SUM barely bought a pair of work boots.
Also look forward to replacing useless dollars for NEW Money (Central Bank notes) for even MOAR Governmental control of what and IF you can buy anything. Something even Orwell's 1984 didn't foresee for control by the PARTY.
But I thought Russia was going to triumph Any Day Now™...?
ReplyDeleteCan you really call it a "stalemate" just because we're up to Day 720 of a three-day special military operation with 300k Russian battle casualties?
As long as Putin is keeping the WEF/NATO/Davos nation wreckers at arm's length, he's winning. And those nation wreckers have just about used up Ukraine in their failed effort to crash the Russian economy.
ReplyDeleteThey really wanted those economic sanctions to make Russia's natural resources susceptible to hostile takeover. Looks like they miscalculated.
no, considering he was/is fighting the entire nato world, plus that's how russia does war. bleed you slowly until you die then roll over your dead ass. besides he has accomplished most of his goals there. demilitarizing ukraine, protecting the ethnic russians in east ukraine, and breaking nato and bonus, gotten the world off the petro dollar.
ReplyDeleteNothing wrong with looking at both sides of the coin to see if you're missing something big that's only obvious in hindsight.
ReplyDeleteHowever, these two clowns?
There's good money to be made selling Copeium to American Conservatards, Boomertards, Grillers, etc. Really good money.
Classic case would be that South African Prole Serpentza who went to China to escape the Blackopalypse and taught English in a cheap suit. That's for Boomer Proles. For better-educated more cosmopolitan (or at least they like to think so) Gen X and Boomers, there's Gay Boy Zeihan waiting to cash out each time you view one of his vids.
But like Opium, Copeium is just an escape from reality. In the end Reality comes at you like a freight train whether or not you're dreaming of Xanadu. Maybe especially if you're dreaming pleasant opioid dreams of your enemies crumbling from their own internal contradictions (to use one of the bits of Marxist analysis that is actually quite useful) when in fact it's YOU who is imploding from ditto.
Talking of Opium apropos of nothing at all. Unlike everyone here, I *have* strolled the old Protestant Cemetery in Macau and read the names on the gravestones and monuments. Some really interesting ones there as many of the dead British at the storming of the Bogue Forts and Canton were buried in it. Basically anyone who was anyone and not Roman Catholic before the British established the first cemetery in Happy Valley on their new possession of Hong Kong after the First Opium War. Anyway... on with the digressing digression: There are a significant number of American names in the cemetery. Lots of Boston, Nantucket names. Which figures as whalers went on much longer in distance and duration cruises than other merchant ships. But if you think they were looking for Whales in the South China Sea, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn (guaranteed no Chabadniks tunnelling in its foundations) for sale, I promise you) for sale on good terms. They were smuggling opium into China. Just. Like. Everybody. Else. Buried. In. That. Cemetery. The Chinese mainly just wanted to be left alone. Instead they found themselves torn apart by foreign predators... and yes, some internal contradictions as the Qing reached the natural end of their dynastic cycle (these things run about 250 years... and Sir John Glubb would nod.)
Now Perry didn't go to Japan to sell Bengal Opium to the Japanese... but in effect what he did was blackmail. The Japanese just wanted to be left alone. Not being left alone, they did the Other Thing. Didn't work out too well for them then. But one day some country (might be China, might be Russia) will do the Other Thing when Americans don't leave them alone. And one day it's going to work. Also you might like to think who *has* just about run 250 years and is at the end of their cycle :P
(Hell... there's even a bunch of Danish and Swedish names buried there. And not just ordinary seamen. Merchants, captains. Ever heard of the East Asiatic Trading Company, Jebsens, etc... Not as famous as Swire, Jardines, and the other old hongs, but still existing in one for or another today.
Even more off-topic but just for fun:
Louis T Leonowens Limited
https://www.louist.co.th/about-us/
If you've watched The King & I and know something of the true backstory, you'll get it. I've seen the old brick godown (look it up, Americans) he built down by the river.
"The military stalemate in Ukraine" LOL.
ReplyDeleteThat one is not going to age well.
To those who say "Well, that's how Russia always fights" in regards to slowly wearing down an opponent, I say, well, that's how Russia when it had an overpopulation used to fight.
ReplyDeleteRemember, one of the many causes of the Russian Revolution against the Tsars was the widespread losses by the Army in WWI, on top of the disaster against Japan by the Navy a few years earlier.
And anyone saying "But the Soviets won WWII blah blah blah" I say the Soviets took horrid levels of casualties and only won because they were propped up by Great Britain (at a time when GB couldn't sustain itself) and the US of A.
Three years of mind-numbing war where the current Russian government is arresting people who speak out against it?
Three years of war where any male who could fled the country?
Three years of war and relying on North Korea and China to supply them? (And anyone who thinks Xi's China is actually bailing out rather than slowly weakening Russia is a fool. Xi and the CCP have been eyeing Siberia since, well, Mao took over China back in the 1940's...)
Yes, the Ukraine is getting the dog-poop pounded out of it. Yes, the Ukes have lost huge numbers of soldiers. Actual casualties are probably 1 Uke for 1 Russian, which eventually is a 'win' for Russia, for values of winning.
What will Russia be left like when they win? Will they have the ability to absorb and administer the Ukraine while also recovering from all the damage and also protecting their eastern borders?
Nobody's saying it, but Russia has had a birthrate problem even worse than Japan for the last 30 years. They aren't replacing the people. And what people grow up have often moved out as there aren't a lot of opportunities in actual Russia for young people. It's a dying society. What we're entering in with our cities and leftists who aren't replacing-by-birth (but fortunately we have a huge fly-over section where there are large populations that are replacing-by-birth and expanding-by-birth, but the eneMedia isn't talking about those people (you know, the people on the evil right.))
Russia bit off a lot more than it could chew. And Putin can couch it all as the West's fault for expanding NATO but it isn't. It's Putin and Russia's fault for continually attacking the Ukraine since Putin came into power. A little bit here (nom, nom.) A little bit there (nom, nom.) Wow, it's going down easy, so a little bit more (nom, nom.) So easy, let's take a big bite (nom, OWWWWWW!, grind, chew, OWWWWWW!!!)
Yes, Zelinsky is corrupt as heck. Yes, the Ukes have lied and cheated and stolen lots of aid money. But they've also bloodied the Russians and shown them and the world that they're going down fighting.
And in this day and age, what country is going to take a huge population of white Christian refugees? The Ukes have nowhere to go, much like the whites in South Africa. They are lost.
Russia, especially Putin's Russia, has always hated the Ukrainians. Especially since the Soviets took over. There is no way for Russia to 'rule' over Ukraine if they win. And no real way to pull out and say "Ooops, my bad, sorry." As this is, what, the 4th time since the Soviet breakup that the Russians have stolen land from the Ukrainians?
Putin compared himself favorably with Hitler in his Tucker interview. That says a lot.
Man. Some of y'all are so desperate to believe that based and trad Vlad is going to save the world from Biden that you'll swallow bull excrement like it's good beer.
ReplyDeleteLet's take the most obvious howler, which is the idea that 10% of the adult male population of Ukraine is dead. The highest Russian estimate of Ukrainian casualties (not killed, casualties) is somewhere between 400,000 and 450,000. (Also, you should trust Russian estimates of Ukrainian losses as much as you should trust Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses). In order for that to be 10% of Ukraine's adult male population, said population would have to be between 4 million and 4.5 million people. Said population is actually more than 10 million.
Y'all have issues.
Time is on Russia's side.
ReplyDeleteZelensky sacked the popular Zaluzhny who was competent but a political threat and promoted Syrsky to lead the army because he will do whatever Zelensky orders.
If Zelensky orders AFU to hold Avdiivka it will end like Bakhmut, a bloodbath for no strategic value just a PR gesture.
They have entered a Schörner death spiral.
Time will tell if Russia "Wins" in Ukraine against the combined strength of America (mostly) and NATO.
ReplyDeleteSeems way too many reports of Russia's running out of this or that was Hopium BUT it IS showing up in American-NATO ability to do industrial warfare on a Near Peer enemy.
But don't worry, we'll just move the goal posts so our Media can report it as "Mission Accomplished".
Unless the Thucydides Trap turns our Republic into a chaotic social disaster as the EBT cards and such fail.
But on the bright side the Grid will be gone, and all the internet experts will be silenced.
All empires have a life cycle. Empires general fail from debasing their money, endless wars and poor leadership.
Sound familiar?
"Empires general[sic] fail from debasing their money, endless wars and poor leadership."
ReplyDeleteSounds almost as familiar as "Any Day Now™...".
721 days, and counting.
Sure are a lot of y'all who think that the Ukraine means something to the USA, and are stuck in the old Cold War mindset that anything that gives Russia a headache is good for us. So y'all are just cheerleading for the WEF like it was a Friday night high school football game. It's kind of sad, really, that you think the outcome of this war determines anything for the USA except our apparently limitless ability to screw things up. Y'all need to be wearing cheerleader skirts and getting ready to be gang-banged by the team.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much cognitive dissonance you'll have when Ukraine comes to its senses and quits letting the money laundering western billionaires from Davos (and their pet politicians) call the tune. But then, of course, the scam will be billions to repair and rebuild Ukraine, instead of billions to arm and equip Ukraine.
At least that would mean your keen desire to humble Russia and create a coup to overthrow Putin doesn't succeed. Because if it did, you would have turned the country with the most nukes into a modern day Libya, uncontrollable factions fighting for control in a country goe over to chaos. It would be Vietnam/Afghanistan on radioactive steroids.And none of us are likely to survive that.
If Putin's choice to try a short, victorious war in Ukraine put him in a position where losing results in him being overthrown, that's his fault.
DeleteI also remember when "the 1980s called, they want their foreign policy back" was a Democratic line that attracted deserved derision from the right, and Obama's comment to Medvedev about "having more flexibility" was seen by right-wingers as further proof of his anti-American tendencies.
Sorry. I refuse to take people who play partisan games with America's foreign policy seriously.
Russia is the aggressor in this war. They have no right to take Ukrainian territory or Ukrainian lives, regardless of whether there are "ethnic Russians" in the area. This war confirms that their government, if not their entire society, is predatory and will turn upon devour their neighbors if the opportunity presents itself.
ReplyDeleteUkraine needs to fight for survival, even if the cost is great. Surrender means its utter annihilation. The Russians will not guarantee the safety of the Ukrainian people, but are likely to kill or relocate them and replace them with more "ethnic Russian" settlers.
What do you do when a hungry bear starts preying upon the village? You chase it off or kill it. I want this war to end, because war is always a terrible tragedy. It is also a terrible injustice. For their crimes, Russia must pay. Their forces in Ukraine, and their leadership, must leave or be destroyed.
Ukraine was the aggressor, starting to shell Russian-heritage civilians in the DonBas in 2014. Get your facts straight Grey.
ReplyDelete"If Putin's choice to try a short, victorious war in Ukraine put him in a position where losing results in him being overthrown, that's his fault. "
ReplyDeleteSpoken like an idiot who thinks our adventures in Iraq were a good idea.
More like "someone who understands that people in other countries have agency."
DeleteBut hey, you can keep on believing that America is the center of the world if you want.
I'll give you Orban...
ReplyDeletePeople should really consider sitting down and reading Thucydides and gain an understanding of just how damned insane Athens was to launch a vast expedition to conquer Sicily when its enemy Sparta was literally at the gates. You need a good map of the old territory though since he goes on and on about places you never heard of and have no idea where they're located.
Putting up a 3 or 5 layer defensive line in depth across all the territory that was your main objective and then practicing attrition and draining your enemies dry is usually a very good strategy. People seem to think that Russia has to "win" and I guess they take that to mean something along the lines of how the US won in Korea and in Vietnam and in Iraq and again in Afghanistan.
Americans really interested in the subject should study war and it starts with Thucydides and works its way up to the modern day with long digressions into reading and discussing Clausewitz. You won't go wrong reading up just the history of war and campaigns. Oman wrote some really good stuff and of course the Civil War is an excellent field for studying war at the operational level.
@Anonymous at 1:17PM: Putin was the aggressor in 2004, seeking to overthrow the democratic election of Yanukovich. He succeeded. That, in turn, led to the Maidan, 2014, etc., etc. Both sides are equally guilty - as is the USA for its constant interference.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said in these pages before, I don't trust either side, and I don't believe what they say about this war. They're both corrupt as hell, they're both equally guilty, and they're both lying through their teeth to anyone and everyone about this conflict - including their own people, much less the West.
@Peter at 3:59
ReplyDeleteYou mean like we did with the CIA-backed Maiden riots? To oust elected Poroshenko?
If interfering in elections makes you an aggressor, we've been aggressing most of the rest of the world for decades. That is basic CIA 101 behavior.
ReplyDeleteStalemate? What stalemate? Russia is fighting a war of attrition. Oh, and they just took Avdeevka.
ReplyDelete