Mpox a "global health emergency"? Really???

 

For the second time in as many years, the World Health Organization has declared mpox (the new, non-racist, politically correct name for what used to be called monkeypox) to be a "global health emergency" . . . but is it really?

According to a BBC report, here's the incidence of mpox cases in Africa (the epicenter of the outbreak) over the past couple of years.  Click the image for a larger view.

So, Congo has reported more than 10,000 cases - out of a population estimated at about 110,000,000.  At a rough guesstimate, that amounts to an infection rate of less than one hundredth of one percent.  The rest of the continent is way down on that number, to an almost infinitesimally small proportion of the continent's population - yet that's defined as a global health emergency?

There's also the fact that mpox is spread through close - indeed, often intimate - physical contact.  According to the BBC:

Mpox spreads from person to person through close contact with someone who is infected - including through sex, skin-to-skin contact and talking or breathing close to another person.

The virus can enter the body through broken skin, the respiratory tract or through the eyes, nose or mouth.

It can also be spread through touching objects which have been contaminated by the virus, such as bedding, clothing and towels.

Close contact with infected animals, such as monkeys, rats and squirrels, is another route.

During the global outbreak in 2022, the virus spread mostly through sexual contact.

The current outbreak from DR Congo is being driven by sexual contact, but has also been found in other communities.

There's more at the link.  Left unspoken is that men having anal sex with other men are the primary catchment area - you should pardon the expression - for the virus.  In the USA, a previous outbreak of mpox was largely confined to the gay community, with relatively few cases outside it.

Therefore, if you don't have sex with an infected person, particularly anal sex, you're very unlikely to catch mpox - particularly if you live in a country with relatively spacious living quarters, so you aren't jammed up together in a hovel, and if you observe routine First World hygiene practices.

In so many words, this is NOT a "global health emergency".  It's a routine outbreak of a disease that has been with us for generations, and in most cases is not fatal.  Victims usually recover without medical treatment, which is often not available in remote areas.  The fatality rate is given as up to 4%, but that's highly debatable.  (Don't forget, for years I passed through the areas of Africa shown on the map above, and talked to medical personnel there.  Based on that, I'd guesstimate the fatality rate to be no more than 1%-2% - much the same as many other "routine" diseases like flu in that part of the world.  It's far lower in First World countries.)

The WHO is using the relatively unknown status of mpox in the Western world as a thinly veiled excuse to whip up emotions, make people listen to its guidance, and boost its own importance in the health care ecosystem that gave us the COVID brouhaha.  The US government is not far behind, having committed over $150 million to buy bulk supplies of a mpox vaccine.  However, it's not (yet) recommending a large-scale vaccination program, probably because it knows full well that most of us won't believe it if it says such a program is necessary.

I can only suggest that such warnings by the WHO and other bodies be treated with the skepticism they deserve.

Peter