Egypt received its first F-16 fighter in 1982, and continued buying them until 2013. Today, it has just over 200 of them, equipping nine squadrons in its Air Force. However, they aren't the latest version and have limited upgrade capability, because the USA refuses to sell the most modern gear to Middle Eastern powers that might use it against Israel. Therefore, when it came time to decide on an F-16 replacement, Egypt decided to look elsewhere. It's just announced that it will buy Chinese Chengdu J-10c fighter aircraft, equivalent to the latest-model F-16, with equally modern weapons systems available.
This is significant for a number of reasons.
- Egypt has further diversified its military suppliers away from dependence on the USA and towards greater international cooperation. Frankly, given the dysfunctional foreign and military policies the US has displayed during the current Administration, I'm only surprised it took this long for Egypt to make that call.
- The purchase will give Egypt a major upgrade in its military capability, with weapons that are current-generation rather than decades out of date. For what it's worth, the J-10c's will match the capability of Israel's F-16's, although hostilities between Egypt and Israel are presently very unlikely. It certainly changes the strategic dynamic confronting Israel's defense policies.
- A large order like this gives China a big boost in international arms purchases, possibly offering opportunities for sales to other Middle Eastern nations. That, in turn, may erode US influence in the region.
- What, if any, significance this deal may have for Israel's actions in Gaza remains to be seen. There are other ramifications for Israel that will doubtless become visible over the next few months and years.
As far as Israel is concerned, the deal is bound to lead to some interesting historical soul-searching, because the Chengdu J-10 benefited from a lot of Israeli input during its initial design and testing. I've written about how Israeli aerospace engineers who'd worked on that country's Lavi project went to South Africa, where they helped to develop its Carver fighter project. When that was canceled, a number of those engineers moved on to China, and worked on the J-10 project. Now, the fruits of that last move are coming to Egypt to equip its air force - a potential opponent of Israel, if things go wrong.
History can definitely be ironic, can't it?
Peter
Does China actually sell their latest and best to client states? Or do they, like the US keep the best for domestic use. If they do give Egypt their top shelf equipment it will give the US a chance at learning things about Chinese capabilities. Somehow I don't think Egypt will be getting the latest and greatest.
ReplyDeleteI just don't know if Israel is going to survive without extreme help from the USA and Germany. The resupply of Israel by the USA in the 1973 Yom Kippur War was critical. Would we do it now ?
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass
And Germany is building several more highly modified Dolphin submarines for Israel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar-class_submarine
That it is...always...
ReplyDeletej10 equal to f16's? hahahahaha! best laugh i had all day. thanks!
ReplyDeleteThat's my view also.
DeleteForeign manufacturers like to claim their stuff is as good as US stuff but cheaper... Spoiler alert: It isn't!
And regardless of what it can do, it will need way more maintenance time and spare parts - they better stockpile a bunch, then pay enough to get people who can do the work.
International military equipment sales make the worst US used car dealer look like an angel. Never trust the claims of a manufacturer that haven't been checked by a third party. I've seen outright impossible claims made, and too many people take them as Gospel.
Jonathan
Even the new DEI fighters?
DeleteModern fighters don't do 'daring aerial combat' like Snoopy fighting the Red Baron. A fighter is a delivery system for putting ordinance on target, usually missiles or glide bombs, from a good distance away.
DeleteAnd there's the rub. Who has better targeting radars* and longer range air to air missiles?
It is also laughable to talk about the other sides equipment downtime while ignoring our own issues in this vein.
* That super stealthy aircraft is super stealthy in what radar frequencies? And is that the only frequency the enemy uses?
It isn't the equipment, it is the user. No matter how good a J10c may be on paper if it is being flown by a pilot who got there because of his family's status and maintained by Inshallah it won't be worth much in an actual fight.
ReplyDeleteAnd even if they do find a good pilot, they won't have enough of them to matter.
DeleteFor many years, it's been widely known that Israel tracks potential opposing pilots and has plans to overwhelm the good ones and make a turkey shoot of the rest.
I saw a statistic years ago that of 750 fighter pilots opposing Israel at one point, only 50 were good enough to care about and they planned to gang up 10 or more to one on them if war happened.
Jonathan
Don't overlook the obvious:
ReplyDeleteThis makes crating up one of those J-20Cs and having it show up at a hangar in Area 51 in a week, along with all the tech manuals, not just easier, but a virtual certainty.
Just like most of the Soviet collection of fully flyable MiGs we had on hand there in the 1980s, which was time in Leavenworth for even mentioning back in the day.
If China wants to gift-wrap their fighters for us, so much the better.
Remember the genesis for Top Gun. In war the important thing is training and focus. Inshallah doesn't begin to cut it.
ReplyDelete