Thursday, January 30, 2025

An Iron Dome for America?

 

I see President Trump has signed an executive order requiring that an "Iron Dome"-type anti-aircraft and anti-missile system be installed in the United States.  Given the sheer surface area of this country, it obviously won't be cost-effective to build a system to cover every square foot of our land;  but that's also not necessary.  Major cities, critical infrastructure and essential facilities can be covered much more easily and cheaply.

The interesting fact, of course, is that Israel's Iron Dome system is largely manufactured in the USA, using our military aid dollars for the purpose.  Those aid dollars can only be spent on American weapons systems.  Israel therefore designs its critical weapons in-house, and when they're perfected, contracts out their manufacture to US companies, thus providing jobs to our people and revenue (and some interesting new technology) to our government.  Thus, America can simply increase the production of Iron Dome missiles and electronics, and divert the excess to our own needs.  I'm sure Israel will be only too happy to approve such an arrangement, given that we subsidize its defense needs to the tune of billions of dollars every year.  (Whether or not we should spend so much on Israel is another matter, producing a lot of very spirited debate in political circles.)

As a matter of fact, we already have a couple of Iron Dome batteries to play with.  Two were activated at Fort Bliss in 2020 to provide the Army with an interim cruise missile defense capability.  By now the US armed forces should have acquired enough operational and institutional experience with them to be familiar with our needs, and has a core of personnel trained to operate them.  That will also speed up the deployment of new systems if they're urgently required.

The US military has traditionally placed less emphasis on anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses than other countries, because it's relied on the traditional air superiority of the US Air Force to protect the rest of the armed forces.  That air superiority is now increasingly challenged, as witnessed in the efforts to protect ships in the Red Sea area from Houthi missile attacks.  Air raids and aircraft-launched missiles have not stopped enough of them from getting through.  Israel has a ferociously effective air force, but it hasn't relied on that alone to stop incoming fire - hence its development of Iron Dome and other missiles.  If we follow their example, and use their combat-tested technology, I think it'll give us a head start on filling in a capability gap for our armed forces.

Peter


22 comments:

  1. Sounds like the MIC's wet dream.

    My neighbor, who works at Raytheon, laughed at the premise, but was excited about the future contracts.

    Consider the Russians, who currently have the most advanced anti-missile/drone defense still take hits. And the critical areas in the US are much more spread out than those in Western Russia.

    Any US "system" will be late, overpriced, and only meet 10% of the goals, except enriching those contractors and their congressmen.



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  2. Can't
    Stop
    Hypersonic
    Missiles

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    1. Unless you're using a laser beam, which moves at the speed of light and makes hypersonic look slow. That technology is under development, both in the USA and in Israel. See, for example, Israel's "Iron Beam":

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam

      Early days yet, but give it time and even hypersonic incoming weapons might be targeted.

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    2. Have we shown that the laser can penetrate the plasma that surrounds the missile? With maneuverable missiles could the laser accurately target a single spot on the missile long enough to penetrate and damage the interior. Do we even know if the laser will penetrate a missile that can withstand the intense heat of reentry?

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    3. Sigh...

      Of course you can. Hypersonics aren't magic AND the US has already shot down exo-atmospheric ballistic missles... which are hypersonic at that velocity.

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  3. yes you can stop hypersonic missiles, all ballistic missiles are hypersonic.

    the fear/hype about hypersonic missiles is that they maneuver, so are harder to hit. That doesn't mean impossible.

    There was a time when people said it was impossible to intercept a ballistic missile.

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  4. @peter, I'm glad you mentioned the Iron Beam, apparently there are a couple other countries with similar laser systems (England and I think the US has one as well)

    Israel is scheduled to deploy theirs in active service this year

    The current systems are short range (7 miles IIRC) but they make up for it by being cheap to use ($7/shot instead of $50k per shot)

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  5. I love the hype about hypersonic missiles, like they're some sort of new thing. Every single ICBM is hypersonic and always has been - so hypersonic missile have been around for 75 years? Anything that can defend against an ICBM is able to defend against hypersonic missiles.

    The big problem with these "shoot a missile with another missile" systems is that twofold. The first is that it's cheaper for the enemy to "flood the zone" than for defenders to defend against more. Iron Beam may be the answer to that. The other is to just look at how modern contracts go, from the Little Crappy Ships to Boeing's Starliner and Space Launch System. As Chris Nelson said, everything will be delivered late at twice the cost and barely functional.

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    1. Anything that can defend against a ICBM. . . That's the problem. The Patriot has never hit anything! If you think they are invulnerable, volunteer to man one in Ukraine. Multiple units have been destroyed with missiles. Multiple crews killed too.

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  6. The age old battle between attack and defense.

    The Military Defense Industries are drooling uncontrollably right now.

    Peter what happens when the Laser system is disabled by a cyber attack or betrayal?

    Lasers are light speed BUT the Detection, Targeting and Decision Tree are not. AI might be better IF you trust it to be correct 100% of the time. Airliners have been shot down by US Navy ships from human error. AI is just a faster error possibility.

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  7. I'm hearing an echo of the Nike air defense system my Dad worked on many years ago.

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  8. On U-Tube theres a channel, "Habitual Line-crosser", the creator is an instructer on our Patriot system, has many vids in his archive on air defenders, missile defence based on real experience. He laughs about the hypersonic stuff, and the Russian bots who tout their "superiority", some good info on how interceptors work, and real life experience...check his archives.

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  9. @SiGraybeard the difference with "hypersonic missiles" is that they are able to maneuver, so the interceptor missile needs to be able to maneuver a lot more than current once can.

    @Michael, detection is a light speed thing (visual or radar) :-)
    > what happens when the Laser system is disabled by a cyber attack or betrayal
    same thing as any other weapons system. But why would a laser system be any more vulnerable to that than any other technology?

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  10. Reading all this made me remember seeing the Nike batteries at George AFB. I suppose they were there defending Los Angeles. That's over 50 years ago. Change and staying the same is a thing.

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  11. @Trumpeter, the current lasers are short range (7 miles) so they are not going to be targeting ballistic missiles while they are in their reentry phase

    As for targeting maneuvering things, yes, they have been shown to be able to hold on target with the target maneuvering much more than a missile would.

    Patriot batteries have hit things, but that doesn't make them invulnerable (especially against old fashioned artillary shells)

    using current lasers against superpower-grade nuclear warheads would not work, but mostly because the target would be so hard to burn through, more powerful systems would be needed.

    a longer range, higher power laser targeting ICBMs would be likely to do so before they reenter, and you don't even have to completely burn through them, if you damage them a bit, the reentry heat goes places it wasn't planned and finishes the job

    As we have seen with Starship reentry, the heat there grows gradually, the heat from a laser is all at once, so things shatter rather than melting.

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  12. The technology of an American Iron Dome system would be similar to Israel's but the tactical deployment and use would of necessity be vastly different due to the difference in size between Israel and the US. We have many more important targets to defend and they are geographically wide spread. It will take a system at least an order of magnitude larger than the Israeli system to have any hope of being effective.

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  13. I approve of this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam

    Me like !

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  14. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam

    Star Wars ! Jerry Pournelle would be so happy !

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  15. Not saying what is better as I don't have the knowledge but I would add that beam-weapons, lasers, are per definition line-of-sight as in: a straight line to the target. That might be a problem against certain threats.

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    1. radar is also line of sight. If you can't see it on radar (or just vision), you aren't going to shoot it down with anything.

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    2. Yes, but we can extend the range of radar beyond the line of sight by different means - which we cannot do with lasers unless we have giant mirrors in space - or giant jewish space lasers.
      Radar antennas are also more portable (and far more numerous) than long range lasers and there are other means of detecting an object than radar.

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  16. The original Iron Dome was to deal with rockets and mortars which were the persistent weapons coming from Gaza, the West Bank and Golan Heights. As a separate issue the Arrow missile (and related radars both fire control and early warning ) were also created (actually much earlier starting in 1986) to complement/extend the PATRIOT (heaven help me that's a fricking acronym) systems they were getting from the US which at that time were marginal against MRBM and ineffectual against IRBM (see Gulf war c. 1991). Later PAC 2 and PAC 3 Patriot became far more capable. Sinilarly Arrow 3 is greatly improved (C.F. the last couple times Iran has lobbed missiles at Israel). The US also has THAAD and SM3 (aegis ashore). These are appropriate for regional conflict along with the deployable (TPY-2) radars). All of this is for SRBM/MRBM/IRBM .

    For continental US (and Hawaii) these specific solutions are insufficient unless Canada or Mexico start lobbing things at us (or Cuba tries to go nuclear again ). ICBMs are harder as they move faster. We currently have 43 deployed GMD midcourse interceptors. There were in the past the Sentinel interceptors meant for terminal intercept (Mach 10 missiles with nuclear warheads) but ultimately 1970's radar tech really wasn't up to the task as the missiles weren't fire and forget. The current GMD missiles are spread between Fort Greely, and Vandenberg Joint base. There was to be a site in Poland (since canceled although there is an Aegis Ashore in Poland)
    and in the eastern US (Fort Drum was one possible site another option was to use the SERE training site in Rangely ME). These are tested with a 56% estimated kill rate for a non maneuvering target. Right now the Pacific facing ones are arrayed primarily against North Korea and unintentional/Rogue launches from Russia or China. The Polish Aegis ashore site is intended to guard against Iranian attack on Europe.

    Given the current GMD cost of $75M a missile a fleet with 3 interceptors/ potential target(~92% kill rate 4per takes you to 97%+) for the ~2400 Russian and Chinese (I assume the UK and France will NOT attack us although given Mr Starmer I'm not so sure...) we're talking $540 Billion for just the interceptors let alone silos, additional radars and additional service members to man and maintain them. And that assumes no MIRVed warheads, although midcourse intercepts might get the delivery buses before the MIRV's separate. Oh and I doubt Orbital Sciences (missile), Raytheon(kill vehicly, SBX and TPY-2 radars) have manufacturing capacity tobuild that many in less than a decade, more likely 2 decades. Currently Raytheon is scrambling to keep up with Patriot PAC2/PAC3 quanties in the 100-200/year range and the EKV (the kill vehicle) is far more complex than a patriot warhead. In additon while you build up your opponent just cranks out more missiles (China, Russia doesn;t even have capacity to build artillery shells and drones it's buying those from North Korea and Iran) or MIRVs more.

    Sadly I think a 100% effective ICBM defense is the same kind of strategic mistake the Maginot line was. It would add lots money to various parts of the military industrial complex and make folks complacent sitting here in Fortress America. It is worth investigating these things further and I think as smaller countries wander into the ICBM world it is worth being able to stop them cold. Also it is worth extending AEGIS/SM3 as Maneuverable conventional ballistic weapons start to put large fleets (i.e. carrier task forces) at risk and like the UK of old we are VERY dependent on sea power and foreign trade.

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