Friday, January 10, 2025

Lessons from the Los Angeles fires for our emergency preparations

 

I'm sure there will be many longer-term lessons coming out of the Los Angeles fires;  the importance of locating oneself as far from predictable hazards as possible, fireproofing one's home, and so on.  However, some lessons jump right out at us, and confirm a great deal of what we've discussed in these pages.  Others shed new light on some issues that we may not have considered.

First, getting away from the danger.  Countless reports from Los Angeles speak of gridlock on the roads.  One woman said it took her two hours to travel two city blocks!  Others speak of abandoned cars, blocking roads so completely that they had to be moved by bulldozer (with inevitable damage to the vehicles concerned).  If we live in an area where such gridlock is likely (including most modern cities, sad to say), we need to take that into account.  Will we be able to "get out of Dodge" if we need to?  If not, we need to place greater emphasis on staying in place, and making our homes more secure against likely hazards.

Second, consider whether our local and regional governments are worthy of trustThose in Los Angeles appear to be anything but!  Their handling of this emergency has been nothing short of catastrophic.  In part, I accept that the sheer scale of the disaster is partly responsible for that;  but the lack of leadership, poor implementation of basic emergency measures such as adequate reserves of water for firefighting, emphasis on political correctness rather than practical training in the Fire Department, and other factors are equally to blame.  Can we trust our lives to our local authorities?  If not, what are we going to do about it?  If we can't change the situation, shouldn't we be considering a move to a safer area, where we are more likely to be able to make it on our own or with the help of neighbors?

(Speaking of help from neighbors, it's worth looking at video of the areas that have burned, taken before the fires started.  In a semi-desert environment, where fires are a known hazard and occur routinely, it astonishes me how many homes had trees and other vegetation right up against their walls.  They effectively made themselves into firetraps.  If everyone in the area had planned their gardens defensively, agreeing (or being coerced through regulations) to minimize flammable vegetation and implement basic anti-fire methods of construction and decoration, how many more houses would have survived?  I'm willing to bet that at the very least, the fires would have spread more slowly, allowing firefighters more time and space to contain them, and possibly making evacuation easier as well.)

A really big problem has just been laid bare for all to see.  If we've laid in emergency supplies, are they protected against this sort of disaster?  If we have them in our homes, along with everything else we hold dear, they're anything but protected.  They'll burn along with our houses.  If we have some at home, and others stored nearby (e.g. at a friend's house, or in a storage unit at a local facility, a few blocks or miles away), will the latter be secure?  In a fire as widespread as those in Los Angeles, that location may burn too.  Furthermore, what about getting there?  If the roads are gridlocked, choked with abandoned vehicles, there may be no way for us to get to our remotely stored supplies with a vehicle big enough to carry some or all of them to where they're needed.  Another thing:  we may be able to get there only on foot or by bicycle, thanks to blocked roads.  How many supplies can we carry on our backs or bikes, and for how far?  Are they packaged in small enough containers, by both weight and volume, to make that feasible?  Do we have backpacks, wheeled folding carts, etc. available at our storage location to make moving them easier?  Who's going to protect them from looters while we're taking some to another location?

I know two people who are pretty well prepared for such emergencies, as far as their respective budgets allow.  One is fairly well off.  He's bought a two-ton cargo trailer that he can hitch behind his family's primary vehicle (a big SUV).  It's parked behind his house, and kept in good condition.  In it he keeps, permanently stored, 30 days' food for his family and pets, and five or six days' water.  There's a suitcase of clothing per person, seasonally adjusted for cold or hot weather.  There are also camping supplies (tent, sleeping-bags, pads, camp cooking gear, etc.) and a few containers of propane, gasoline, etc., so that they can get a safe distance away from danger and stay mobile.  The remaining space in the trailer is left open for whatever they need on departure, including pet travel cages, etc.  They'll grab essential documents, money, etc. on their way out of the door, if necessary.

The other family I know isn't nearly so well off, and can't afford that level of preparation, but they've done what they can.  They bought a fold-up trailer from Harbor Freight, which can nominally carry up to 1,720 pounds weight (although they figure a practical load will be about half that in a cheap Chinesium product).  They've built a removable wood framework around it to secure boxes and totes, and added a spare wheel. It's normally stored folded and upright in their garage.  In time of need, they'll take it out and assemble it, then add a series of plastic weatherproof totes containing a week or two's food and water, short-term clothing needs, and other emergency supplies.  A couple of the totes are kept ready packed;  others are on standby, empty, to be filled when needed.  A tarpaulin or two are ready to cover the load, giving at least some protection against wind, weather and prying eyes and fingers.  They reckon they can be ready to go in twenty to thirty minutes after receiving the evacuation warning.

Both those families are probably as well prepared as they can be for an emergency like the Los Angeles fires.  They may (probably will) lose everything in their homes, if worse comes to worst:  but they're ready to take enough with them to ensure they'll survive, and have a foundation on which to build as they recover.  My wife and I aren't in either of their leagues right now, largely due to financial issues:  but believe me, after Los Angeles, I'm looking very hard at buying a small folding trailer to store in our garage for emergency use, and thinking about what to pack on it.  That suddenly seems like a very useful idea indeed!  I'll start putting money aside towards that need.

Finally, consider communications.  Cellphones are all very well, provided that there are cellphone towers available and unburned!  Small, low-cost FRS or GMRS radios can be bought at many camping stores and supermarkets, and offer another useful option.  CB radios are a little more powerful, and after the decline of the CB "craze" some years ago, aren't as heavily used as some other channels.  I think every member of your family (except perhaps small children) would benefit from having their own communications device, along with clearly understood instructions on when and where and how to use it.  If you're dependent on the availability of the Internet for business purposes, consider Starlink's Roam option, which uses a small portable satellite dish that fits into a backpack.  There are many other options available - although in a big fire situation like Los Angeles, I suggest avoiding smoke signals!

Anyway, those are just some thoughts that have come to mind over the past few days.  Do you have any others to contribute?  If so, please let us know in Comments.

Peter


31 comments:

  1. “Folding Trailer” makes my butt pucker. I’d start shopping Craig’s list or Market Place for a better built small trailer. Something with real size tires, not little wheelbarrow size tires.

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  2. I live in a rural area. My elderly neighbor taught me to collect water hoses an have them ready. 200 ft min. I always mow and water before th;e 4th of July or any time neighbors are burning. We carry hack saws and fench cutters. Documents are in a go bag in the gun safe.water is stacked on top of file cabinets with ammo in them the barn. The hurricane people taught me to take all your cars, chain saws and gas cans so you can get back home. His relatives all cramed in one car and had no place to sleep after the escaped.the four cars left behind were totaled.

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  3. Friend lived in Bastrop, Tx and when the fires were raging 5 miles away that morning. Sun shining, no smell of smoke. Sitting down to lunch there was a pounding on door and was told to leave NOW. It had moved that fast and far in less than 3 hours. If fire is around you get out and pray your one of the lucky ones. She wasn't and lost everything. You don't have a half hour or even an hour sometimes.

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  4. The road in Palisades that they were using the bulldozer to clear the abandoned cars out of the way is the ONLY road into or out of a 2,000 home development in a canyon. That just makes me pucker right up, especially with all the eucalyptus "napalm trees" California has.

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  5. Another vote for a "real" trailer. Check with your local welding/metal shop as they can often make you up something very sturdy and with common wheel/tire size like 4x100 so finding a replacement isn't difficult.
    Maybe just start with the frame, axle and wheels if money is tight but plan ahead by getting pads to add side and a top supports later so you can bolt on some plywood sheets or just have a frame you can tarp over.

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  6. The reason you are told not to grab anything on an airplane during an evacuation is because people do, then drop those objects and hinder everyone else trying to get away. Apparently the same with cars. Sounds like you need to plan to evacuate sans auto. While you could walk or ride a bike, knowing where to get hold of a bulldozer (Or Killdozer - Hi Grandby) seems a better idea—having a destination already picked as well. Shoes and socks and a walking stick. Make sure the shoes/boots are broken in. If you walk, do you walk a road with a passel of refugees where you now become a target, or can you go elsewhere. Do you have maps and gps? Can you flex your route?

    I'm rural and have a small farm. Just had a tree come down and take out some fence. One large tree has been almost four gallons of gas to clear. Chainsaws aren't enough. If you need one, you need two. You need wedges, hammer, bar oil, spare bar, spare chain, spare t-wrench, and a means of sharpening. I like Stihl including their 2 in 1 sharpener. Best of all its manual, and I can sharpen a chain in less than 5 minutes. And PPE, saws are loud, Glasses, gloves and chaps. Most of all you need time, which you may not have in an emergency. A winch or come along, and a bow saw should be considered as well. Take lessons! Using a chain saw well and safely is a skill. (Anyone in NE Alabama wanting practice, I have trees for you) and free firewood.

    My dad always bought a house with the local bad weather in mind. Never buy low due to floods as an example. I learned from his example. Not sure there is any good terrain in LA.

    Generator - I like the dual fuel. I run mine solely on propane as worrying about good gas or fouling carburetors is something I don't want to have to deal with. My gas is for my cars and chainsaws. Solar gets you only limited capacity. I have a battery bank to power the phone.

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    Replies
    1. The areas burning are the areas that burn, repeatedly, decade after decade, and have done so since before Noah's time.
      Most of L.A., and California, is laughing at the entitled jackholes who were jammed into brush-choked wind tunnels, with roads barely adequate for two shopping carts abreast, and by no means wide enough for fire equipment to access them, with brush right up against the houses, and fire hydrants with zero water pressure.

      The worst part about these fires is that they're trying to put them out.

      Let it burn, baby.
      Best thing to happen to West L.A. in decades.

      Now give the state an 8.0 earthquake somewhere between San Jose and Frisco, and you'd really be onto something worth turning on the TV to see.

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  7. This is not for everyone, but a motorcycle is not subject to gridlock in the same way as a car. Especially a dual sport or adventure model.

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  8. If you go for one of those small trailers, try to use the taller tire choice. I think the small one is an 8 inch rim, and the taller one is 12 inch. Be aware that the hub may have 4 lugs OR 5 lugs. The taller tire will give you a little more ground clearance, and a higher weight rating, and roll a bit easier on rough surfaces. Make sure you have enough vertical clearance for them with the suspension fully compressed. Try to carry TWO spare wheels, and make sure you have a wrench to change them! (yes, I had two flats at one time on mine. They are more delicate than a vehicle tire)

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  9. One other thing to consider, while expensive, is an Iridium Sat phone.

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  10. @ Motorcycle Anonymous
    agree with you but not everyone is motorcycle-capable (unfortunately), however more are bicycle-capable and may have a few in their garage
    and a bicycle can always move faster/farther than a grid-locked automobile

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  11. "The Walking Dead" had vehicle blocked roads all over the place as million of people streamed out of the infected cities. The vehicle blockages were in the countryside also, not just the cities, with very little amenities for the stranded motorists. Also reminded me of the Hurricane Rita fiasco in Houston when 2+ million people tried to leave one afternoon. Vehicle blockages at every freeway leaving Houston and then out in the countryside.

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    Replies
    1. You know what's stupid about that situation? Not using the lanes going the other direction for emergency evacuation. Or the shoulders. We let rules kill us.

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  12. For most of the country it is winter. Two wheels aren't going to cut it.

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  13. I've lived in the Great Basin desert at the base of a mountain range for 20+ years. In that time we have had several large brush fires in the immediate area. One, in 2011 came within a quarter mile of the property. My house is in the middle of a 5 acre parcel and I use a tractor to keep the weeds and brush to a minimum. The house is stucco with a asphalt shingle roof. I have solar and batteries so I can power my well to fight spot fires as needed. If things get bad enough we hook up our fifth wheel RV and load it . We keep it prepped for camping which makes it prepped to live in. We will load one of the SUVs with documents and other such thigs and if absolutely necessary leave. But I will do my utmost to NOT need to leave. Bugging out is never as good as staying put. Preparing to prevent fire from reaching the house is far better than preparing to leave it.

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  14. rule #1 for bushfires, especially of this ferocity & scale: if you are in the fire area when it starts, it's already too late to leave. Especially when 20,000 other people try to leave at the same time. Live in a high fire-risk area? Preparation, not escape.
    Preparation: make your home defendable: Clear away all combustibles from around it, and seal it up from sparks entering. Houses are generally lost to spark ingress rather than direct flame impingement. You do this over the months and years BEFORE a fire AND maintain it. Actively defend outside until it gets too hot, actively defend inside until either the fire outside dies down or you're driven from the burning structure.
    Alternatively/additionally, simply don't be in a high risk area on a high fire-risk day. Same principle as not hanging around places where there's risk of violence! Spend the day in someone else's aircon down in suburbia, well away from the urban interface. Take your box of important docs with you in case you cannot return.

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    Replies
    1. These rules are mandated for many fire prone areas... Note that they are prohibited in both LA and Maui, bad examples that show the need for them.
      Jonathan

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  15. The "second order effects" are starting to appear. Gangs of "looters on scooters" are converging on evacuated areas, some according to Fox News, wearing fire dept or power company clothing. Third order effects, like insurance companies no longer writing home insurance policies, or raising premiums to unaffordable levels, are on the horizon.

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  16. How are your ethics and internal fortitude? Will you be willing to drive or walk by the lame, helpless, elderly, children? Stop and help trapped or injured? Use your skills or tools to stop an immediate emergency such as a traffic accident, vs continuing on? It’s easy to plan I’ll just continue on. It’s another thing when your family is screaming at you to help that “grandma” whose car is stuck and is minutes from burning alive or some 10 yr old is yelling her mommy is trapped under a tree branch. What will you do? Obviously it’s a situational decision so there is no answer here on the blog. But you need to consider who you are, who are your family members, and will you abandon your own planned escape ending up with nothing as a result of saving others. One has to be able to sleep at night from ones decisions.

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    1. Better stay home and ethically die. Bonus is that it reduces population AND returns all that money you were hoarding for your retirement to the economy... said no one sensible EVER.
      ----------
      I'm all for considering things others might not have considered, but FFS, the first rule of first responders is "you can't help anyone if you don't take care of yourself". In what universe is "you might have to make a difficult decision involving strangers" a valid reason not to evacuate in the face of danger? All those other people have agency and are free to act on their own. They are not your responsibility.

      nick

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  17. After considering all the potential complications (knowing when to leave, dealing with millions of other people, being fit enough to ruck or cycle, somehow moving all our stuff, etc.), we just decided to simplify matters and move to the middle of the woods instead. We essentially traded a suburban mcmansion for a cabin and about 76 wooded acres at the end of a dead-end dirt road, and we couldn't be happier.

    We do need to have some trees trimmed near the house - which is actually more a small cabin - but it's been here since 1994 so we think it's pretty sturdy (and the local fire department is three miles away, just up the paved road from our turn off). If finances ever permit we plan on a modest-sized ICF home with a metal roof, but in the meantime we have the basics of civilization (buried grid electricity, some solar generators/batteries, a Generac and a 1000 gallon propane tank, a well, a wood stove, and an actual asphalted driveway from the top of the ridge). And my husband can still work remotely (we have reliable fiber optic internet even though we're three miles off the paved road). Yes, we are blessed, and no longer worry about the logistics of evacuating/'bugging out.' This is literally the end of the road for us, and we don't plan on leaving come what may.

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  18. The report from the East Hills Bay fire (in Oakland CA, October 1991) had similar problems. Cars entangled at severely hilly intersections, hydrants running out of water, 60 mph Diablo winds (don't know why the mountain winds in Oakland are "Diablo", while the LA winds are "Santa Ana"). But one thing remains constant - humans DO NOT learn from history.

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    Replies
    1. May have something to do with CA teaching politically driven (alternative) history for decades?

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    2. You labor under a delusion if you think most of the victims of these fires went to school in Califrutopia.

      But they've definitely been schooled there this week.

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  19. Take a lesson from the pre-industrial Japanese. Their cities were/are highly flammable so they built underground storage rooms protected by about 18 inches of earth with a brick entry wall and fireproofed doors. All valuables were stored there and only taken out when needed.

    It need only be about the size of an under stairs cupboard but documents, valuables and "survival" kit and other stuff that you do not want to lose would survive such fires.

    Phil B

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  20. International Wildland-Urban Interface Code (IWUIC)
    2021 International Wildland-Urban Interface Code (IWUIC)


    https://codes.iccsafe.org/content/IWUIC2021P1

    Overview of Colorado's approach.
    https://www.planningforhazards.com/wildland-urban-interface-code-wui-code#

    There are additional things you can do too.

    However, there are conditions where no measures you take will keep you safe if you stay, so you have to have a plan to leave.

    A few years ago in San Diego, my buddy got the knock on the door- the Sheriff's Deputy was there telling him that the fire was coming up the canyon toward their neighborhood, and they had about 10 minutes to get out of Dodge. He didn't even know he was at risk until that point. Fire can move really fast, change directions, find a new path, etc. Not everyone affected had their head in the sand.

    Know what you want to grab, have a couple of different routes to safety, go BEFORE you think it's time.

    nick

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  21. Backpack Fever by Duncan Long applies to this situation. Copy on-line here (http://www.duncanlong.com/science-fiction-fantasy-short-stories/backpack.htm)

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  22. Cash, ATM, credit cards, maybe a tankering of gasoline to 20 gallons in 5 gallon tanks and a means to escape are all you really need. What would be invested in the prepper's list can be purchased, including lodging with cash once one gets far enough away. All you need to survive is food, drink, clothes, transportation and sadly, documentation. Only two of those needs to be brought out with you.

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  23. So much about the fires burning LA....but I second the bike situation. WHY did no-one, in the land of progressive climate change, have an
    E-Bike??? I recommend a Nihola from Denmark. The Danes use bike like cars, so this baby is fast, safe, and anyone can ride. It can transport dogs, kids, boxes, grandma in a wheelchair; you name it. I love them even if they are very "spendy" . (https://nihola.com) And get your documents in what I call "The Great Big Book of Everything". Certificates and degrees if you need to find a new job: everyones health records including the veterinary: account numbers and contact numbers for credit cards-utilities-physicians-vets-etc: your mortgage info; you get the idea. Have it packed into a tote.
    Folks think that they are prepared until they find out that they aren't. Have a PLAN A/B/C and have a back up to those plans.

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  24. During our big fires a few years ago I learned fire really likes to go uphill. We were low on gas and had to drive 50 miles out of the way to buy gas due to closed roads. Paper county maps are a necessity. I second the electric bicycles and will throw them in the truck next time we are evacuated. My wife has always stored thumb drive backups at her sisters.

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