"The Higher Education Bubble That Everyone Forgot About"

 

That's the headline to Jared Dillian's analysis of higher education in the USA at present.  Here are a few excerpts.

My generation, Generation X, the smallest generation, hatched an even smaller generation, Gen Z. The number of students going to college peaked around 5–7 years ago, has been going down ever since, and will continue to go down. Many colleges and universities simply won’t be able to survive. They’re businesses, like anything else, and the schools that have something to offer will continue to thrive, and others will simply wither and blow away. We’ll have far fewer institutions of higher education 10 years from now, and while that is regrettable in a sense, it is probably a good thing.

. . .

Demographers use “demographic cliff” to describe the sharp drop in the population of 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds that began after the Great Recession and is projected to continue into the 2030s. Because this age group makes up the majority of undergraduates, fewer young people almost automatically translates into fewer traditional college students, unless college‑going rates rise a lot.​

. . .

The question is: Will schools be competing on amenities, or will they be competing on the quality of education, or will they be competing on price? My guess is all three. Yes, for the first time in history, schools will have to compete on price. I think we’ve reached the apex of college tuition, and we’re headed downward from here. Not materially, but even if the cost of college remains constant, it will decline in real terms as incomes rise. Same goes for textbooks and room and board and everything else.

. . .

Given declining birth rates generally, 50 years from now, we could have half of the colleges that we have today. Nobody is thinking this far ahead, and nobody is preparing for it. If I were a university president, this would be top of mind—how to financially prepare a university for the day that enrollment is cut in half, building up financial reserves, and not building the indoor practice field.

There's more at the link.

I suspect he's right on the money.  When I look at how many administrators colleges and universities have hired over the past couple of decades (as opposed to lecturers and professors), I'm immediately struck by the huge increase in the former versus the relative (as a proportion of the higher education workforce) decrease in the latter.  All those administrative staff are leeching off the higher education budget without contributing anything, in education terms, to the purpose of that function.  When the only purpose of a function is education, and the demand for education goes down instead of up, what's going to happen to those who aren't contributing anything educational to that sector?  That's right . . . they're going to find themselves out of work.

There's also the question of how much instruction and teaching can be handled by computers and artificial intelligence systems, versus the old lecture style of learning.  High school students have already found they can learn far faster (and get a higher quality of education) through AI systems than through teachers.  Will that translate to higher education as well?  In many areas, I see no reason why not.

I'm currently reading "The Preparation:  How To Become Competent, Confident, and Dangerous", by Doug Casey and Matt and Maxim Smith.

The blurb reads:

Skip the debt. Build the man. What if you could trade four stagnant years in lecture halls for four years of adventure—emerging as a debt‑free EMT, pilot, welder, web/app builder, rancher, and entrepreneur all in one? The Preparation is the field manual for young men (and the parents who love them) who know the old college formula is broken and want a roadmap that actually forges competence, confidence, and real‑world value.

Written by three generations—legendary investor and bestselling author Doug Casey, entrepreneur Matt Smith, and twenty‑year‑old “beta tester” Maxim Smith—this book distills their hard‑won wisdom into a four‑year, 16‑cycle program you can start tomorrow.

• 16 themed cycles—Medic, Cowboy, Pilot, Fighter, Hacker, Maker, and more—each built around a hands‑on “Anchor Course” that forces you to learn by doing, not by cramming.
• Earn‑while‑you‑learn design shows you exactly how to pay your way through each cycle and graduate debt‑free.
• Cost: roughly one year of tuition – yet delivers four years of marketable skills, global travel, and a network of do‑ers, not talkers.
• Foundational philosophy rooted in Stoicism and Renaissance thinking so you don’t just master tasks—you master yourself.
• Bullet‑proof curriculum: step‑by‑step schedules, book lists, online courses, and locations for every skill so you’re never guessing what to do next.
• Battle‑tested results—Maxim used the program to rack up EMT shifts on Oregon wildfires, fly solo over the Rockies, ranch in Uruguay, and sail the Strait of Magellan before he turned twenty.

The Problem: College now averages $140,000+ and often delivers little more than ideology, debt, and obsolete credentials.

The Preparation: compresses that money and time into a crucible that turns raw potential into a modern‑day Renaissance Man—one who can protect, build, heal, sell, and lead in a world being up‑ended by AI and economic turmoil.

If I were a young person today, looking at making my way in life but not yet certain what I wanted to do, something like "The Preparation" as an alternative to college would be very intriguing.  If I had a son or daughter, I'd certainly be making sure they read it, and considered it as a viable alternative to the current higher education grind.  At the very least, it would turn out someone far better prepared for whatever life could throw at them as the typical college or university student.  Remember Robert Heinlein's timeless advice:

A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.

We won't get that from today's universities!

Peter