I generally don't like watching videos to get news and/or background information. They're usually far too long, with too few facts stuck between a lot of verbiage that's of no interest at all. I prefer to read the transcript, so I can pick out the nuggets and ignore the dross.
However, some videos are an exception to that rule. This one, featuring Peter Ziehan, is particularly good. In an hour-long discussion, he examines the Ukraine war and its fallout as far as global geopolitics are concerned. He's got a very extensive background in the field, and I subscribe to his (free) daily newsletter about world events (I highly recommend them, if the field interests you). He's about to release his latest book, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" (which I've already pre-ordered), and discusses parts of it in this video.
Here's the video. Enjoy - and listen carefully. There's an awful lot of meat on the bone in this one, and it repays attention.
Food for thought, indeed!
Peter
Zeihan is very good on demographic and logistical issues. However, he is way overrated on anything else, especially politics.
ReplyDeleteIf you've read his previous two books, you will realize his geopolitical predictions dovetail perfectly with Trump's "America First" policies, especially with regards to the fracking energy revolution. Yet, Zeihan made clear his dislike of Trump in his newsletter over the past few years. Later, he seemed to lost his mind over the whole covid-19 business. He hailed Biden's "election" as the return of the "adults" to the room, despite Biden's efforts to shutdown the fracking revolution and to increase our dependence on the rest of the world not only for energy, but to make us vulnerable every other way as well.
It seems as though Zeihan has a cognitive dissidence with regards to his geopolitical predictions and the optimal policies for the U.S. to deal with them (America first). I am still likely to buy this book. But i will be reading it with a great deal more skepticism than I did his previous three books.
We've discussed Zeihan in this context over on Karl Denninger's blog in the past couple of months.
ReplyDelete@kurt9: Agreed that Ziehan's outlook is "spotty": but what commenter on the world scene today is going to be 100% in agreement with any side? I don't mind that he thinks differently to me about some scenarios. I simply read/listen to him and re-examine my own conclusions in the light of his arguments. Sometimes, I refine my views, or even change them. Sometimes I don't. Either way, he provides a refreshing and thought-provoking perspective on the world.
ReplyDeleteI think Zeihan underestimates the amount of inertia among US elites, hence gets the politics incorrect. I also think he underrates cultural factors - the most laughable case of his predictions being blind to cultural factors is Argentina, which has put on a masterclass for the last century on how to screw up extremely favorable geography.
ReplyDeleteI'll take Dr. John Campbell's guidance on Covid over Peter Zeihan's on any day.
With respect to Trump and Biden, apparently January 6th triggered him. It's taken him over a year to figure out that expressing his views is counterproductive to future speaking fees.
The reason Zeihan has such any 'different'viewpoint is that he is a globalist pos. Look into his background, he's worked for the US Intelligentsia. Zeihan is one of the purest examples of a man, who believes himself to be good, who is truly evil.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I submitted to Zeihan through his website submissions (he has no email address for contact):
ReplyDeleteI am writing you because I think your books are great! Your ideas dovetails with one of my own.
About 8-10 years ago, based partly on books such as yours and many other sources, I became convinced the U.S. would undergo an economic renaissance due to the fracking revolution as well as a resurgence in American manufacturing. My reasoning was thus. The fracking revolution would give us the lowest cost energy anywhere in the world. It would also make us an energy exporter. Call it Saudi America. We actually became this in 2020. Additionally, the increased cost of labor in China coupled with increases in industrial automation (my profession) would reduce the labor arbitrage benefits of manufacturing in China. This, combined with the lower energy costs of the fracking revolution would return a lot of manufacturing to the U.S. Call it Asian-export America. The combination of being both Saudi America and Asian-export America would result in at least a 30 year economic expansion that would deliver lots of tax revenues to the Federal government, not to mention untold economic prosperity across the board. It would have put the Reagan (PBUH) revolution to shame.
No politician in either political party could even be so silly as to kill these two golden geese that lay these golden eggs. Or so I thought.
All of your books strongly promote an “America First” policy as the most optimal for the next 40 years of our country. Yet, you did not like the president who favored the policies your books suggest. Instead, you described the current white house inhabitant, who is doing everything possible to abort the energy impendence of North America despite the outbreak of one of the wars you predicted in your last book, as “the return of the adults”.
I have to ask because I like your books and have actually cited them as support arguments for Trump’s “America First” policies while he was in office. Yet you support the guy who has done everything possible to oppose the policies espoused by your books.
You do have to admit this is quite a cognitive dissidence.
So I got to ask: What gives?
I have yet to receive any response from Zeihan. I sent a similar email to my representative (moderate Republican) and two senators (left of lenin democrats). I got a positive response from the representative and crickets from the senators.
He lost all credibility with me when he insulted Trump and accused him of "blackmail".
ReplyDeleteExtraordinary interview.
ReplyDeleteThese days anyone who is sponsored by a part of the deep state apparatus (NFCU) and allowed to publish on heavily censored YouTube is highly suspect. So the Danger Close podcast hosting Zeihan garners a horse sized chunk of salt.
ReplyDelete