I've been trying to make sense of the fuss about the draft Supreme Court verdict on Roe v. Wade. I had three questions:
- Why did this news break now, of all times? Was it deliberately planned, or just coincidence?
- How can this fuss be leveraged by the progressive left to achieve their goals?
- What are its wider ramifications? How can it be used to further other goals?
I still don't have hard-and-fast answers, but I can speculate.
As for why it broke now, the timing of it all, I have several theories. First, of course, is sheer opportunity. The "leak" came along, and the progressive left jumped on it with both feet. It offers a perfect opportunity to make hay while their reproductive sun shines. However, I think it's a lot more complex than that. Did you notice how demonstrators were ready and waiting, complete with pre-printed signs and well-rehearsed public indignation, for the news to break? They may have been preparing for the verdict when it would have been announced, some weeks from now, but I suspect they were mobilized in advance of this "leak" and standing by to jump up and down and scream about it. They're too well organized for it to be purely coincidental.
The second thing is far-left efforts at "packing" the Supreme Court by appointing a number of left-wing justices to "balance" (i.e. in practice, overwhelm) the influence of the right. This has gotten nowhere until now, thanks to the opposition of two Democrat senators - Sinema and Manchin - who've shown both courage and common sense in supporting the filibuster, thereby preventing such a blatantly partisan political hijacking of the justice system. Kudos to them both. However, a threat to "reproductive rights" might become a major factor in "peeling off" a few RINO senators (Murkowski, Collins and Romney come to mind, and there are others) who might "take a stand" on abortion rights and vote with the Democratic Party to enshrine Roe v. Wade in federal law (despite its distinctly dubious constitutionality). This would nullify Sinema's and Manchin's opposition. They might go even further. Using the pretext of reproductive rights, they might vote to nuke the filibuster, and allow a pure majority vote on Supreme Court issues. This would open the door to further progressive-left legislative priorities.
Archimedes famously said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world". As far as control of the US Senate is concerned, the draft verdict might just be that lever, with Roe v. Wade the fulcrum.
Another factor is that the Democratic Party desperately needs an issue big enough and important enough to distract voters from all the problems in our everyday lives right now - problems either caused, or made much worse, by the failures of the Biden administration. Inflation, economic pressures, the war in Ukraine, the illegal alien invasion across our southern border, COVID-19 issues (particularly the potential dangers of the vaccines against it, which are becoming clearer by the day and affecting the health of literally millions of Americans) - all of those are an ongoing, constant drumbeat affecting potential voters in November.
Added to that is the release, this week, of Dinesh d'Souza's latest bombshell revelation about left-wing corruption, "2000 Mules". (It's very telling that many pro-left-wing sources, including Wikipedia, have to date utterly ignored this movie, trying to condemn it to obscurity rather than respond to the solid facts it presents as evidence of fraud in the 2020 elections.) Any objective analysis of the movie must conclude that electoral fraud has been overwhelmingly proven, and is now impossible to dismiss. It's no longer a matter of conjecture or debate. I think the Roe v. Wade draft ruling is likely to be used in an attempt to "shout down" 2000 Mules, and prevent it being widely publicized. Whether or not the movie's release date had anything to do with the release of the draft ruling, to suck as much potential publicity as possible away from the former and focus it on the latter, is open to speculation. It's by no means impossible. Sundance sees it that way.
I'm certain that the Democratic Party and the progressive left will attempt to build momentum around "Protect Roe v. Wade!!! Eleventy!!!", overriding opposition efforts to remind voters about the many other real problems that confront us. I won't be surprised to see Antifa and BLM return to the streets in force, rioting to "protest the onslaught against reproductive rights", classifying any such opposition as racist, elitist, able-ist and any other -ism or -ist they can think of. Could such violence be used as an excuse to delay, postpone, or even cancel the elections scheduled for November? I hope not . . . but the left knows full well it's lost much of its former electoral support, and might clutch at such a straw in a desperate attempt to retain power at any cost. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
The left needs a cause around which it can rally, one so powerful (they hope) as to overcome resistance to all their other policy disasters and mismanagement and corruption. It'll take time to build, mobilize and launch such a wide-ranging onslaught against their opposition, and that's probably why they're launching their effort now, to gain enough time to influence the November elections. I tend to believe the leaking of the SCOTUS draft ruling was deliberately timed to accomplish that. It's just too convenient to them in so many ways for it to be purely a coincidence.
Furthermore, expect any and all attempts by conservatives and centrists to present arguments against left-wing policies and positions to be howled down by accusations that they're "ignoring the real fight - reproductive rights!", or "an expression of the patriarchy", or similar nonsense. I think the left's idea is to generate enough propaganda smoke that nobody can see the final flickering flames of their burned-out policies. I'm sure their allies in the mainstream media and much of social media will do all they can to assist; and I daresay they'll be vociferous in their opposition to Elon Musk and Twitter in the face of any attempt to "democratize" that platform, and make it more representative of Americans of all opinions and walks of life. They dare not lose control of the conversation, so they'll do all they can to demonize any source that tries to offer a platform to those of different views.
I predict bloodshed over all this, in the streets of America, this year. I hope and pray I'm wrong.
Peter
I'll offer an alternate explanation although I'll allow in advance that I may be wrong. From Dread Justice Roberts press release yesterday - 'Although the document described in yesterday’s reports is authentic, it does not represent a decision by the Court or the final position of any member on the issues in the
ReplyDeletecase'.
I have always thought that the Court would do another Mobius pretzel on the Mississippi law. Uphold it by declaring viability to be 15 weeks but leave the basic Roe structure intact. I think this leak was Robert's doing to show the Left 'look how much worse it could have been' when the decision is released in June.
The left is disintigrating because the results of the leftist socialism the Obama wing has succeeded in pushing is visibile for all to see every time they shop for groceries or put gas in their car. The great hero St. Zelinsky, having replaced St. George Floyd as the icon of the left, doesn't rally as much support for the left as was hoped. Apparently actual Americans don't want another 20 years of war on the other side of the planet - paid for with our tax dollars. Covid Kabuki is running its course and the 'people' have run out of paitience. Yes there will be violence from the left, it will blow up in their faces this time and there is little chance they can succeed in cheating their way out of this election.
ReplyDeleteMurkowski, Collins and Romney pull their usual 'moderate' stunt? Quelle surprise. You left out Angus King. He and little Senator Susie never get any press until it is time to give the Republc a raw deal.
1. It was planned.
ReplyDeleteIt provides a rallying point for the demoraled socialists set to take a shellacking in the mid-terms.
2. It creates chaos. There is opportunity in chaos. It presents a window to allow unpopular schemes to move forward. Because the window is narrow, look for an acceleration of those schemes, or to codify existing.
3. I can only predict that whatever else they have up their sleeve, it will be characterized as opening new fissures and increasingly fracturing the society; anti-West, anti-America, economically, socially hollowing out traditional society
Even if Roe v. Wade is overturned, it simply means that it'll go to the States. The blue states will continue to allow the butchery. I don't see why everyone's making such a fuss about this.
ReplyDeleteBecause the socialists never give ground. To them, there is no such thing as a Pyrrhic victory.
DeleteTo the right, it signifies a return to the Constitution, howsoever slight.
To both sides, because so great the economic/political/moralist/ethical ideological schism, any achievement is a great step in their respective ideology.
Too, I allow the fuss could be to some simply a 'We won-you lost' excitement. That is perhaps the most reprehensible for in the least it indicates a callow disregard of others.
DeleteWhen this all exploded in the media my first thought was that as is typical the left has with its usual inept timing staged their October Surprise about five months early. I fully expect them to attempt to milk the issue all the way to the November mid term, but I think that the American publics' notorious short attention span will see the peak fervor die off long before then while the economy, inflation, shortages, and immigration will still be constant thorns in the nation's arse.
ReplyDeleteAs for the issue of abortion itself, estimates put the total performed at well over sixty million since Roe became the law of the land, and about a third of those were done to black mothers. And yet they will still call pro life proponents racist because that is all they have left to throw.
I was listening to Steve Bannon and he had a person that previously worked with the SCOTUS on. This person said that the drafts are handled by each of the 4 clerks and their Justice, total 36 clerks and 9 Justices, but in this case it was surely the Left leaking it.
ReplyDeleteHe said the SCOTUS has it's own Law Enforcement Group to protect the Justices, the building, the equipment, and any issues. The head of this is the Marshall and they will investigate and call in the FBI when they need certain help. The person will be identified and the question will be what happens. Normally if a clerk they will lose their Law License and be barred from practicing in the USA and serving in the US government. If a Justice they will be forced to resign.
It is likely a clerk for Sotomayor as she is the most radical and so is her clerks. The timing is planned as the protest groups were ready. It also came when the 2000Mules film was released to show the stealing of the election.
Nothing Biden can do will expand the Supreme Court or end the Senate filibuster. The numbers in the Senate are too close plus in many states there are races that if a Senator made such a move they would lose either the primary or the general election.
This draft indicates that abortion is not allowed by the US Constitution and why, and is turning it back to the states where it belongs. It is not a judicial issue and it is a state legislative issue under the Constitution. The Democrats do not like this because they have a perfect system to kill babies and also pay Planned Parenthood via the Federal Government, but this would change.
My $0.02 re: timing theories: 1st: N/A. This case was going to be announced well before the midterms, so this early leak just started things earlier than they would have. Second - as long as the nights are warm, the protesters are standing by for orders. Could be a cop shooting a black person who always wanted to be a doctor, could be a billionaire restoring free speech, or the worst case: Mothers of deadbeat kids living in basements unite one day and refuse to make lunch.
ReplyDeleteI watched a clip from Los Angeles last night. The protesters look exactly the same as they did in 2020 when black lives was the current thing. Its as if - and I'm going out on a limb here - that they belong to a communist organization that tells them when and where to burn cities.
Maniac, that's precisely the point. Some states will restrict abortion, others won't. The Left absolutely can not allow some parts of the country to live their lives as they see fit. It's why the Left has spent the past 100 years increasing the power of the federal government. Allowing the states to decide is a rollback of that power.
ReplyDeleteOn timing, I suspect that this was a tactical error. The decision would have been released in June, with five months to rouse the base and riot before the election. I wonder if an extra month will result in extra rousing or just allow more time for the issue to die down. Only so long you can be outraged over one thing before people tune you out and you have to bring up the next thing.
most folks are missing the key point, as tptb wish. once, just once, when the leak was first reported they quoted the draft to say " there is NO inherent right to privacy in the constitution." thereby "my body, my choice" does not pass muster. the implication therefor is that when the next plandemic comes you don't have the right to refuse. roe was used effectively to argue against the mandates. goodbye roe, hello forced medical procedures. you didn't think they gave us a victory, did you? sorry charlie.
ReplyDeleteI think there was attempt to Shadow Ban 2000 Mule. They are going to have to try something else for Saturdays Major Screening. Keep and eye out.
ReplyDeleteThrough Tommy Robinson on Telegram I am seeing that there's a (feminist and female) Rabbi that put up a "Jewish Rally for Abortion Justice"... two weeks before this was leaked.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts, which mirror much of the above.
ReplyDeleteAbortion is galvanizing for many on the left like few other issues. Many know that Row is dicta and so the only course is intimidation. They also need a reason to riot before the election?
The court is also deciding the NY carry case. Major riots might sway the squishy ones on the court to water down the ruling.
This pushes the following off the front page:
*Ukraine, which is Russia is winning and they won't be able to hide it for much longer.
* The laptop
* The economy. The contraction is not the big issue all of a sudden
* immigration
* Bidens mental decline
*Something else that is about to drop and they want to get lost in the noise
I don't know how I forgot it:
Delete2000 Mules. They cannot let that be seen
I don't have a strong opinion on why the specific timing this hit the news, but I wouldn't doubt that they not only planned for it in general, but also for this specifical leak to hit the news when it did.
ReplyDeleteI think that not only because of the immediately-available banners, etc. for the protests, but also because the draft opinion leaked was from February, and I remember Feinstein sitting for months on the allegations and "witness" against Kavanaugh.
There appears to be some potential self-incrimination from Sotomayor's clerk with respect to expectations of leaking.