The latest inflation figures are bad enough - an annualized rate of 9.1%. That figure is, of course, illusory, and bears little relation to reality. The real annual inflation figure (which the government is carefully not mentioning at all), using my suggested correction factor of 3.5 times the "official" numbers and rounding the result, is probably over 30%. Judging by the grocery and other bills Miss D. and I pay every month, even that may be a little conservative.
Sundance notes:
- The rate of annualized inflation for natural gas is now running at almost 100%. Meaning if things continue, the current price will double again by this time next year.
- The rate of annualized inflation for gasoline is running at 134%.
- The annualized rate of energy inflation overall is running at 90%.
These are the results of the people behind Joe Biden implementing the Green New Deal program by executive fiat.
Also, keep in mind the current increases in farming costs at the field have yet to reach wholesale and retail. The fertilizer, oil, diesel, packaging, transportation and energy costs at the field will not arrive to the fork until later this fall. That is when food inflation will surpass energy inflation.
. . .
Later this year the next wave (#3) of food inflation will surpass the last two waves. Things will get ugly because there are also predictably shortages of food coming. Higher farm costs and global food supply shortages equals much, much higher U.S. prices. Prepare.
There's more at the link.
Karl Denninger agrees.
Food and energy may well be "excluded" from the Fed's "core" index but they sure aren't excluded from what you have to buy to continue to live. They're arguably the most important items of all, and next up is health care if you need it, and you better not, because that is headed straight into the "you can't buy it because you can't afford it, and no, alleged insurance doesn't help."
Again, more at the link, and worth your time to read it all.
Wolf Street expresses where we've come from in graphic terms. Clickit to biggit.
Those numbers are taken from the Federal Reserve's official figures, and calculated according to the government-approved rate of inflation. Applying my corrected rate, they'd look much, much worse.
There's no point in harping on and on about it. However, be aware of what's happening, and take careful note of every dollar and every cent you spend. Most of us can no longer afford to indulge ourselves: yet many consumers continue to do so, financing it through credit cards and other forms of loans, because they can't bring themselves to change their spending habits. Reality is about to force them to do that, whether they like it or not.
If we can get a head start on them, and spend our money on what's really important while it's still available to buy, we'll be a lot better off than they will. Food that you buy and store today against future need is still within your budget. When that food costs three, or four, or five times as much, it may no longer be affordable. Therefore, "gather ye rosebuds while ye may" and "make hay while the sun shines", because rosebuds, hay and sunshine may be in short supply before long - and much more expensive.
Peter
Common sense Peter isn't common.
ReplyDeleteUnless you're planning on stopping that habit of eating buy food, NOW.
Unless you think food prices are going to get cheaper, Buy Food NOW.
Kept in a cool dry, rodent free zone almost everything in Walmart's dry goods section will last 2 years easily.
Buy what you eat, Eat what you buy, rotation so oldest gets eaten today.
Look at dropping unneeded things NOW. That unlimited cell phone plan AND an internet connection do you need to be available to the World Wide Web ALL the time? That extra 20+ dollars buy's a lot of canned goods over a few months. Do you NEED that fancy Coffee, or can you brew your own and spend that money on more storable foods?
Get out of debt. History proves that Bankers WILL get their pound of flesh even as things are crashing. Debt and TAX Debt were how so many people became homeless as their farms and homes were sold on the Courthouse steps by Bankers guarded by Sheriffs.
Sorry incomplete posting. Historical event was Great Depression in the USA.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder that the murderous thug couple named Bonnie and Clyde were popular as they were "Sticking it to the MAN".
Local farm/ranch, one of 4 or so within 10 miles of me, has billboards in town and signs everywhere, ground beef/$2.99 for a couple years now.
ReplyDelete4 days ago all signage and billboards changed to $3.99.
They have a small retail shop, always busy. Girl at the register said they held off as long as they could on increase, but costs are going thru the roof.
I'll caveat that annualized inflation at the beginning of an event isn't likely to continue to increase at that rate. As noted manufacturers try to avoid price hikes so tend to wait, collecting slimmer profit margins, until they can't hold off anymore. That doubling of gas prices isn't likely to continue year to year although wouldn't surprise me if it still goes up a bit.
ReplyDeleteI have a small chest freezer in my garage and I think that this afternoon I'm going to head down to Lowe's and Costco to see what an upright freezer costs.
Buy what you eat is a good idea, the only problem being that I mostly eat meat and salad. I rarely eat anything out of a can or dried. I have a significant stock of dried and canned food but it isn't getting rotated out because it's not a regular part of my diet, rather there just in case. It's a bit of a quandary because I don't want to change my diet until I have to. Hopefully it will last. Well stored in dry area.
@heresolong,
ReplyDeleteA couple of thoughts. Freezers are double what they cost before covid. They go in and out of stock and were unobtainable for a long time. Look for a scratch and dent to save enough to put some meat into the freezer, but don't hesitate if the price is good and the unit is available.
WRT not eating what you are storing- I used to do that. I have a whole lot of stuff we don't eat day to day in storage. Some of it is purposely weird or outside our comfort range, in order to combat appetite fatigue. But I have been adding stuff into my daily meal rotation where it makes sense, and if the item is hated it won't hurt too bad. In the process we've found a number of canned goods we like and eat regularly now.
Box meals that you just add protein to are great short and medium term preps too. I'd say "Hamburger Helper" but the kraft version tastes better, and there are a lot of meals using other proteins. Look in the ethnic aisle or a neighborhood market for stuff like vindaloo, curry, or other asian favorites in the same format as Hamburger helper.
It's a lot easier to eat that canned chicken for the 8th week if you have Chicken Taco mix, or a curry chicken box meal to put it in.
Bulk rice is great to store and can be added one cup at a time to meals to really stretch your other stored food.
n
All the talk of food uncertainty has got my wife in nesting mode again. The last major spurt was when Obama was President. I hauled 120 pounds of corn meal in #10 cans down to the basement last night. She's swapping out some wheat to make space. The wheat is going to a friend.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, I would guess that if food becomes scarce, the means to cook said food also becomes problematic. It can pay to have something as simple as a camp stove and fuel set aside. Charcoal and a camp Dutch oven opens up other possibilities.