Got ammo?

 

My favorite online ammo supplier, SGAmmo, sent out an e-mail today.  In part, it reads:

We have seen a massive spike in demand this past 4 days, with double 'normal' sales Saturday and Sunday,  then triple normal on Monday, and already double normal at 11am today.  We have not raised a single price yet, however if order volume continues to overwhelm the warehouse crew's capacity to fill orders over the next few days we will have to make choices on how we reduce volume, which could involve increasing prices 5% to 10%, limiting selection to cases only, removing popular ammo options that are sold at extremely low profit margins from the website menu, minimum $$ orders, etc, all of which are highly unpopular with segments of out customer base, but necessary to maintain synchronization of warehouse capacity with order volume.

We guarantee the advertised price in this email until noon CST on October 11th or while supplies last, however prices are subject to change after that.

In my course of many conversations with clients, I commonly see that there is wide spread misunderstanding of 'how it works' in the ammo business, which is understandable because it takes decades of experience to learn the deeper details, and even then, there are always surprises along the way. One thing that a lot of people do not know is that the ammunition business is a fear-driven market, not consumption driven. Fear leads to stockpiling and hoarding beyond manufacturing's capacity, which leads to shortages. The masses react to scares of various types, driving demand up quickly, sharply and almost instantly, within minutes to hours of a disaster, swarming ammo suppliers like us with abnormally large order volume. Such is the case this weekend in reaction to the Israel - Palestine conflict, where sales skyrocketed Saturday morning and remained at double 'normal' order volume over the weekend.

How long this sort of elevation of demand lasts varies and depends greatly on 'aftershocks', as in shocking events that drive additional fear in the wake of what happened just before. It take a series of events to drive the market way up like it was in 2013, or 2020 and 2021, and a single event typically will not do it alone. That said, should a series of shocking events unfold, this could drive the market up in a substantial way. I have seen people on the gun forums often make fun of the people who 'panic buy' the day of the disaster, however in my observations over the years, the people that buy in the first hours or few days of the panic beat the potential price increases and almost always come out ahead of those that wait and buy later in the short term, especially if the market prices are down at the time of the panic like they are these days.

In my opinion, the market prices could turn back up so quickly and go up so far, that it is a safe to say it is a great time to buy ammo these days. Prices have come substantially from their peaks in 2021, and while it is always possible that they go slightly lower, there is currently a lot more room to go up which can happen in what seems like the blink of an eye. Stack it deep while it is selling cheap!

I can only endorse Sam Gabbert's sentiments.  People panic when confronted by what they see as an imminent threat.  If you haven't got enough ammunition for your foreseeable needs now, other people's panic may empty shelves faster than you'd believe, and you may have to wait a long, long time before you can buy more.

I urge you to check your ammo supplies now, and order tonight whatever you need for the foreseeable future.  I'd say that should include at least 100 rounds of fighting ammo (i.e. hollow- or soft-point) for every defensive weapon, plus at least 200-300 rounds of practice ammo for each of them.  That's a rock-bottom minimum, IMHO.  I have a lot more than that put away, and right now I'm very glad that I do.  I don't have to shop for a thing.  (If you don't already have a favorite online ammo supplier, I recommend SGAmmo unreservedly.  I've used them for well over a decade, and have been very pleased with their prices and the consistent quality of service they deliver.  No, I'm not getting any commission or kickback for endorsing them.  They're just good people with whom to do business.)

The threat we're facing is real.  Right now, people are responding to that threat.  In the ammo game, under such conditions, it's a case of "You snooze, you lose".  Act accordingly.

Peter