Thursday, April 18, 2024

Yep - as predicted: interceptor drones

 

Some months ago, speaking about "Ground combat in an age of drone warfare", I said:


I predict we'll see new drones designed to do nothing but hunt down the other side's drones.  Think World War I.  Initially, aircraft were used only for reconnaissance, finding out what the enemy was up to.  In due course, the first bombs were dropped, to disrupt what the enemy was doing.  To stop both activities, fighter aircraft were designed to stop enemy aircraft from doing their thing.  I think we'll see "fighter drones" coming down the pike, to do precisely the same thing in modern terms.  I'll be very surprised indeed if they're not already being developed, along with weapons to equip them for that task.


Just one week later, I wrote about two Western interceptor drone systems that are being tested.

It seems that Russia has now developed its own interceptor drone technology, according to this video clip on Bitchute.  I'm sorry about the noisy advertisement embedded before the actual video:  I can't prevent that, but after only a few seconds you can select an option to skip the rest of the advert.  I recommend doing that.



I've no idea what drone system that is, but it certainly seems to be effective against relatively slow-moving quadcopter-type drone systems (those most often encountered over the Ukrainian battlefield).  If any reader knows more, please let us know in Comments.

We're seeing a much faster, rapid development environment in drone warfare than we have in most past "conventional" wars.  That's partly because the computer technology involved has become over-the-counter.  One no longer has to specially develop a chip or control system:  something already developed for other purposes can be re-programmed to do what one wants.  It's no longer necessary to spend months and millions of dollars designing a solution tailored for a single purpose.  Also, commercial components for light drones are freely available at very low prices.  Those developing them can buy what they want almost anywhere, and for not much money.  (For example, Ukraine has developed many different models, including this innovative - and very low-cost - "kamikaze" drone, costing between $5,000 and $10,000 apiece.  If one of those hits a battlefield vehicle like a tank or armored personnel carrier or artillery piece, any of which will cost many times as much, it's an economic victory every time as well as a tactical win.)

Sheer economics made interceptor drones inevitable.  If it takes a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar shoulder-fired missile to take out a ten-thousand-dollar drone coming towards one, it soon becomes impossible to afford such exchanges.  On the other hand, a ten-thousand-dollar drone intercepted by another ten-thousand-dollar drone is a much more affordable solution - and the much more expensive installations and vehicles protected by those interceptor drones will still be intact and able to operate.  It's a no-brainer.  I'm sure we'll see many more interceptor and fighter drones in the very near future.

Peter


10 comments:

  1. If I recall, in one of Jerry Pournelle's books landwar devolved to guys with guns only as all other tech was defeated by counter-tech.

    I'm waiting for a shoulder mounted CIWS system, probably shooting 22 pullets. Man portable, dude has a radar/motion detector on his helmet and any drones detected get engaged and shot down. Anticipate lots of friendly fire until all the bugs are worked out.

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  2. A small, fast drone that explodes has a use beyond blowing up other drones...

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  3. After reading this, I surmised that the biggest world powers are using the 'Kraine and Israel as testing grounds for their next generations of fighting systems without losing any of their own "players". Scary times indeed.

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  4. Peter, there's no video on the page, Could you post a link?

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  5. Xoph said...
    I'm waiting for a shoulder mounted CIWS system, probably shooting 22 pullets.
    Twenty-two chickens at a time!? Wow...
    CIWS... Chicken In War Shooter... Chickens Incoming With Seriousness,,, hmm...

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  6. I have thought for a while that we're are the aviaion-in-WW1 progression for drones in warfare.

    First they're used for reconnaissance.
    Then someone jury-rigs them to drop hand grenades on troops.
    Then they're shooting at each other with pistols.
    Then someone puts a machine gun on one and starts shooting down the other.
    Then someone puts two machine guns on one and starts shooting down the ones shooting down the other.
    Then we're struggling for edges in speed, altitude, range, stealth, sensors, weapons flexibility, cargo capacity...

    Same thing as WW1. We've even got trenches again.

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  7. Bigtube6

    I am hoping for a system that slaves the secondary weapons of a Main Battle Tank to an air defense mode ala "Hammers Slammers" of David Drake fame. Multiple anti air platforms that move with and protect the a armored force integrated as part of the armored force.

    Or maybe I am just nostalgic for the unrealistic technology science fiction of my misspent youth.

    >

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  8. I've read reports of electronic warfare station use by both sides, as well as protective measures ranging from cages to chains to sheet metal "barns".

    Move and counter move - it's the latest iteration of the age old battle between weapons and armor.
    I've also read that in some places both sides are using trucks with similar protection and dispensing with armor all together, possibly due to cost or mobility.
    Jonathan

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  9. The proliferation of drones in warfare will continue till the perfection of Directed Energy Weapons happens. Then drones will cease being as useful. When you can shoot one down with a laser beam they cease being so economical. Warfare IS change personified.

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  10. I wrote quite a lot about the last couple of years of drone developments here.

    (Cost) effective defense against drones in mass is hard and only a few places (i.e. Ukraine Russia Israel) appear to be spending serious efforts on figuring it out.

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