The Syrian mess

 

The situation in Syria, after the fall of the Assad government, is so murky as to defy quick analysis.  There are wheels within wheels, currents and counter-currents, and so many twists that following them appears to defy possibility.

The biggest single problem is that so many factions are jockeying for position - and few, if any, of them are trustworthy.

• The "Islamic rebels" who've just overthrown Assad are largely Al Qaeda sympathizers, with more than a few ISIS sympathizers tucked in among them.  Expect them to splinter into their factions before too long.
• The Iranians have long backed the Assad regime, including importing literally tens of thousands of Hezbollah fighters to bolster the lackluster (and now disintegrated) Syrian Arab Army.  Iran is widely hated in Syria for supporting the dictatorship that's killed so many of its own people.  The fall of Assad is a very significant geopolitical defeat for Iran, as well as an ideological slap in the face.
• Hezbollah is facing the slaughter of most of its operatives that were in Syria, supporting Assad.  I'm sure most of them are trying to get back to Lebanon - but Israel (and, to a lesser extent, Syrian Arabs) wants to kill most of them on the way back.  They'll probably succeed in that objective.  Expect Hezbollah in Lebanon to be severely diminished in every way over the next few months, particularly because their support from Iran - cash and weapons - has likely dried up already.
• Israel will make hay while the sun shines.  I understand it's occupied the entire demilitarized zone along the border with Syria, after the Syrian troops there vanished like snow on a hot rock.  The Israeli Air Force is busy destroying every major military facility within its reach, and the US Air Force is doing likewise in central and eastern Syria.  I suspect the objective is to ensure that Syria is left with only small arms to fight any battles in the short term, plus a few ratty old tanks.  Artillery, missiles, electronics, chemical weapons and the like will be smashed before the new government in Syria can do anything to protect them.
• Russia has taken a diplomatic beating with the defeat of its surrogate, Assad.  It has two very sophisticated (and very expensive) bases in Syria.  It'll probably try to hold on to them, citing agreements with the previous government;  but I'm sure the new one will want them back - and Russia is focused on its war in Ukraine at present, and may not be able to dedicate enough troops and military assets to hold on to its Syrian enclaves.
• Turkey is a huge winner.  It's mobilized, trained and supported many different Islamic fundamentalist movements, and has now unleashed them on the Assad regime with spectacular success.  It will almost certainly send back to Syria the three million-odd refugees it took in, and probably try to attack Turkish Kurdish rebels that took refuge in Syria.  We might even see Turkey annex some parts of western Syria as a buffer zone against future Kurdish incursions.  Right now, who's to stop them?
• Every Arab and Muslim country in the region is going to be watching Syria very carefully to see which factions come out on top there, and for how long.  I expect diplomatic ripples to spread throughout the Persian Gulf, through the Stans in the former Soviet Union, and into Afghanistan.  Iran will bluff and bluster and bloviate, but its standing in the Middle East has taken a pounding, and won't recover quickly.  I suspect the big winner will be Saudi Arabia, which is far enough from Syria that it won't be directly affected by the turmoil there, but rich enough to subsidize its favorites in that country and give them an edge in the jockeying for position that's already begun.  Besides, if the Saudis can move into diplomatic territory formerly dominated by Iran, it'll pay dividends in the long run.  This is going to be a very complex mess.

I entirely agree with President Trump that the United States should stay out of direct involvement in the Syrian mess.  Our allies will be involved, and may need our support, but let's provide that at second or third hand, rather than up front.  We should certainly pull our troops out of Syria altogether.  On the other hand, the Kurdish groups in Syria, Iraq and Iran might need direct US help to survive an onslaught against them from Iran and/or Turkey.  That remains to be seen.

There's also the interesting question of Ukrainian involvement in Syria.  As we mentioned last week:

According to a Syrian special services source, talking to RIA Novosti, Ukrainian advisers played the key role in the capture of Aleppo – providing drones and American satellite navigation and electronic warfare systems, and teaching Syrian collaborators and Islamic Party of Turkestan operatives how to use them.

If that report is true, might Ukraine be expecting, as a quid pro quo, some of those Islamic fundamentalists to turn against Russia (which had supported President Assad against them), and mount terrorist operations inside Russia to help the Ukrainians fight their invader?  Wouldn't that open a can of worms?

Right now, nobody knows anything for sure, except that Assad is gone.  This could settle down quickly, or it could blow up into a Middle East holocaust.  Nobody knows - and if anyone tells you they do, they're either guessing or lying.

Peter