The Ukraine war spills over into Syria - and perhaps further?

 

News from Syria of a sudden, unheralded onslaught by fundamentalist Islamic terrorist movements, driving the Syrian armed forces out of Aleppo and expanding south and east towards Damascus and the Mediterranean coast, is provoking a great deal of head-scratching among the cognoscenti.  Where could this lead?  How about to a full-blown regional war?

There are two very interesting articles analyzing what's going on (as far as anyone can, given the paucity of information currently available).  The first is headlined "The Syria Riddle: How It May Turn Into the First BRICS War".  In it, I found this snippet:

According to a Syrian special services source, talking to RIA Novosti, Ukrainian advisers played the key role in the capture of Aleppo – providing drones and American satellite navigation and electronic warfare systems, and teaching Syrian collaborators and Islamic Party of Turkestan operatives how to use them.

Syrian Arab Army (SAA) communications were completely jammed by these electronic warfare systems: “The assault groups and drones were equipped with encrypted GPS devices and extensive use of AI, so that the use and navigation of attack UAVs and kamikaze drones took place from a long distance.”

The mechanism was set in place months ago. Kiev made a straightforward deal with Salafi-jihadis: drones in exchange for batches of takfiris to be weaponized against Russia in the US/NATO proxy war in Ukraine.

There's more at the link, including analysis of what Turkey may be up to, and how this affects Russian involvement in the region.  The article concludes:

BRICS members Russia and Iran have no other choice: they need to fix, by whatever means necessary, the incompetence displayed by Damascus and the SAA, so they may maintain their access to the Eastern Mediterranean, Lebanon, Iraq and beyond. That implies a very serious move: Russia deviating key assets from the battle in Novorossiya to preserve a relatively sovereign Syria.

Food for thought indeed.  For example, will Russia's cannon-fodder North Korean infantry be diverted to fight fundamentalist Islamic terrorists in Syria, rather than Ukrainians?

The next article is from Cdr. Salamander, whose maritime and military analytical skills are well known.  In an article titled "Syria's Jenga Tower", he writes:

Syria isn’t really just a civil war. It is more than a proxy war. It has major external players on the world stage with active military participation. The United States, Russia, Turkey, and Israel all are actively involved, the first three on the ground. Other nations such as the United Kingdom and France will make an appearance now and then. Jordan and Iraq have their fingers in the pie.

The major external powers have even come into direct conflict with each other; USA on Russia, Turkey on Russia…and probably more that have not made it in to open source. To say it is a complicated mess, waiting for mistakes to happen, is an understatement.

If you are looking for the good guys, you will need to squint.

. . .

Russia’s capabilities are but a shadow ... As opposed to the last period of significant fighting, Russia cannot bring to bear (pun intended) what the Assad government needs. Russia is distracted with larger problems in Ukraine and has African adventures that are not an easy walk.

Again, more at the link.

If readers are unfamiliar with Jenga, a detailed description may be found here.  Briefly, players construct a tower of wood bricks, then try to remove and reposition a brick at a time without collapsing the tower.  Describing Syria as a "Jenga tower" of participants and positions is actually a pretty good metaphor, IMHO.  Expanding that to cover Ukraine, Syria, every nation in the area, their relationships with each other, their use of proxy (a.k.a. terrorist) forces against each other, etc., and you've got a great big international dog's breakfast of the whole malarkey.

What effect this will have on the war in Ukraine is unknown as yet, but Russia dare not allow matters in Syria to get out of hand.  It has two major bases there, one naval, one air, that allow it to dictate policy in the entire Middle East and north and central Africa.  If they're threatened or closed by military activity, that will have a direct and immediate effect on Russian foreign policy and economic influence over tens of thousands of square miles.  Therefore, one might expect Russia to do one of three things:

1. Attack all-out in Ukraine so as to bring the fighting there to the quickest possible conclusion, regardless of losses, thus freeing Russian forces to turn to the Middle East;
2. Keep up existing pressure in Ukraine as far as possible, but siphon off reserve forces and supplies to divert them to the Syrian conflict;
3. Reduce pressure on Ukraine, diverting major combat forces and equipment to Syria, hoping that it can resolve the situation there within a few weeks so that it can get its forces back into operation against Ukraine before too much damage is done.

Which of these options it might choose (or another option I haven't considered) is unknown, but the status quo won't solve anything.  Something, somewhere, has to give.

What was that ancient Chinese curse about living in interesting times?

Peter