Is Libya becoming the next Syria and/or Iraq?

According to Strategy Page, it may be.

Officially ISIL describes their Libyan operation as just another “province” in their Islamic state. But in fact Libya is the largest concentration of ISIL personnel outside of the 20,000 in Syria and Iraq. Libya is also where an unusual number of key ISIL personnel (leaders, tech experts, trainers) are showing up. The reality is that ISIL is establishing another relatively secure base in Libya, one that could serve as a backup headquarters if the core of the current “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria is lost. ISIL also has franchises in nine other countries but none as strong and secure as Libya.

ISIL is trying to seize oil fields and export terminals so that it can try and raise cash by smuggling oil out. Actually doing that has proved very difficult but ISIL needs the money. ISIL, as a whole, is suffering from a severe cash shortage. ISIL personnel in Syria and Iraq report pay cuts of up to 50 percent and many are not getting paid on time. The reason for that is increasing air attacks on revenue producing operations (mainly oil pumping and smuggling) in Syria. In 2014 ISIL seized huge (over a billion dollars) amounts of cash and access to many salable items like antiquities and slaves. This helped ISIL operate and expand. The many nations fighting ISIL soon figured that out and went after those sources of income.

By the end of 2015 ISIL was feeling the effects and the Libyan operation was ordered to pay its own way. In Libya this is being done via theft, extortion and smuggling (mainly of illegal migrants into Europe). Obviously one way to limit ISIL growth in Libya is to attack the income producing activities. That is difficult because a lot of the smuggling is protected from attack by the presence of the illegal migrants. On land ISIL is also using human shields to gain some protection from the growing number of Western air attacks.

. . .

Greed, corruption and factionalism has been key in preventing the formation of a national government or dealing with the growth of Islamic terrorism (and calls for turning Libya into a religious dictatorship) ... many Libyan leaders are well aware that ISIL will continue to exist and expand in Libya unless there is a powerful offensive to clear them out. That requires a united Libya and some foreign assistance. None of that will be available without the [Government of National Accord].

There's more at the link.  Highly recommended reading.

My biggest worry is that neocons and their fellow travelers will try to get the USA to intervene in Libya with troops on the ground.  We don't need another massive dose of suck and fail like Iraq or Afghanistan.  That's largely what gave rise to ISIL in the first place.  Libya is an Arab and Mediterranean problem, that can only be solved by Arab and Mediterranean nations.  We can't do it for them.  Every time we've tried to do so in other areas, we've made things worse.  I hope our leaders have learned from that . . . but I have my doubts.

Peter