When large-scale weather threatens large-scale consequences

 

I'm sure most of us have read news reports about the imminent return of the climate phenomenon known as El Nino, possibly in the form of a so-called "super" El Nino, far stronger than "normal" events of this kind.  There have been all sorts of alarmist forecasts about drought, flooding, and everything in between.  However, the big story may be the effect of this climate phenomenon on global commerce and industry, regardless of whether it's rainy or sunny.  TT Club, a "provider of mutual insurance and related risk management services to the international transport and logistics industry", examines the implications.

El Niño events are part of a naturally occurring climate cycle, but “super” events are characterised by exceptionally high sea surface temperature anomalies, which are far less frequent and significantly more disruptive. Current forecasts are suggesting that a very strong event is increasingly likely, with some indicating increases well above historical norms. The result is not a single point of failure, but rather a synchronised, multi-regional disruption that has potential to affect the interconnected global supply chain.

. . .

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the current outlook is the convergence of climate and geopolitical risk factors. When overlaid with El Niño-induced climate shocks, the potential for cascading effects increases significantly.

For example: 

• Reduced fertiliser availability may exacerbate the impact of drought on crop yields
• Higher fuel costs may increase the cost of transporting goods
• Trade route disruptions may amplify delays caused by weather-related events
• This interconnected risk landscape highlights the need to view El Niño not as a standalone hazard, but as part of a broader system of interdependent risks.

. . .

The critical point for global businesses is that exposure is rarely limited to the location of the physical hazard. Organisations may face indirect impacts through suppliers, commodity markets, logistics networks, energy systems, insurance costs and customer demand.

Key global vulnerabilities include: 

• Food and commodity price inflation driven by crop losses or supply uncertainty
• Disruption to agricultural, industrial and consumer-goods supply chains
• Transport delays, port disruption and reduced reliability across maritime and inland logistics routes
• Energy market volatility linked to higher demand, reduced hydropower output and infrastructure stress
• Increased insurance, financing and working-capital pressures as businesses respond to greater uncertainty

For internationally exposed organisations, these second-order and third-order effects may prove just as significant as direct physical risks. The practical implication is that El Niño should be assessed not only by geography, but by dependency: where goods are sourced, how they are transported, which inputs are most constrained and where alternative capacity exists.

There's more at the link.

That's an often underestimated factor in many plans:  military, political, business, disaster, whatever.  A factor that is described in geographical terms - like El Nino, often termed the "southern oscillation" of weather patterns - can have effects far outside that geographical area.  I'm sure most US businesses on the East Coast aren't planning for any major disruption due to weather that might affect the West Coast of this country, but that's very short-sighted.  What about Europe, or Asia?  I'm sure many nations on those continents are dismissing El Nino as "someone else's problem", but if, as the article suggests, we define it by dependency on economic activity in the area where it occurs, that dependency reaches into every corner of global markets, both imports and exports.

Even on a small scale, in terms of personal planning for the next year or two, this bears thinking about.  For example:

• Is my employer (and hence my job) likely to be affected by El Nino, positively or negatively?  Could it determine whether or not I have a job at all this time next year?
• What about our household emergency planning?  Are we assuming that certain staple foods and basic necessities will always be both available and affordable, or might the advent of El Nino-related weather patterns affect that?
• Are we planning to travel anywhere over the next year or two?  Will airline flights be affected by El Nino?  Will they become more or less affordable?  What alternatives are there?

Just a few areas where we might all do well to consider what's going on in our atmosphere and our oceans at present.

Peter

Very useful information on long-term emergency food storage

 

Commander Zero, whom we've met in these pages on several occasions, recently wrote an article asking his readers for feedback on cold weather food storage.  His exact question was:  "If you were going to store foods in a location that was going to be subject to freeze/thaw cycles, what foods would be best choices?"

Many of his readers responded - 44 of them, as I write these words.  They've provided a great deal of information that's useful for anyone considering food storage, even if not in a cold-weather environment.  I highly recommend clicking over to his place to read his question and explanation, and their responses.

Peter

More useful information about your home in extreme cold

 

Karl Denninger has written extensively about the effect of extreme cold on your home's plumbing, heating problems, and related issues.  His article is too long to excerpt here, so click over to his place and read it for yourself.  Very interesting and useful information.

Stay warm, friends.

Peter

Helpful advice for the Second Coming of the winter storm next weekend

 

For those in the path of the latest deep freeze:

Given the likely temperatures, one might advise the wearing of underwear irrespective of the wind speed - but that's probably un-Scottish of me, or something like that.

Peter

Where did the water go?

 

I was interested (and somewhat amused) to read that the biggest reforestation project in the world has had some - wait for it - unintended consequences.  Say it ain't so!

China’s massive tree-planting push has long been hailed as a climate win. But new research shows the country’s ambitious effort to slow land degradation, and fight climate change, has also reshaped its water supply in surprising, and sometimes uneven, ways.

When China dramatically expanded forests and restored grasslands under its "Great Green Wall" initiative, it didn’t just change what the land looked like, it changed how water moves between the ground and the atmosphere.

. . .

“They’ve actually increased forest cover by 15% over the last five decades,” [meteorologist Jennifer] Gray explained. “If you think about the amount of moisture that those forests are releasing into the atmosphere, it is just an incredible amount.”

. . .

What surprised researchers most wasn’t that water moved, it was where it ended up. “What’s so remarkable about this study is the scale of it and the unintended consequences,” Gray said. “The rain was distributed in completely different ways and in completely different places.”

The reason lies in the atmosphere itself.

“The atmosphere and the winds can actually transport moisture more than 4,000 miles,” Gray explained. “So if you plant trees in one area that doesn’t mean that that’s exactly where it’s going to rain.”

. . .

That’s why Gray says climate solutions can’t stop at planting trees. “It puts an exclamation mark on the importance of having city planners get involved, water management folks get involved as well,” she said, “so this can be carefully thought out as to where the water is going to be distributed once you do something like this.”

There's more at the link.

This is fascinating to me.  I've never figured out how bureaucrats and political functionaries can dictate to Nature - "We are going to do this, to force you to do that" - without any real understanding of how Nature works, the interplay of forces and influences that mold and shape the world we live in.  It seems ridiculous on the face of it;  what my father would call "farting against thunder".  The power of natural forces is so enormously greater than anything of which we can conceive that it makes fools of the bureaucrats who think that way.  Perhaps this is yet another example of the folly that led to Mao's megalomaniac "Great Leap Forward", which led directly to the "Great Chinese Famine" and caused tens of millions of deaths.

I think it's a laudable ambition to halt desertification by reforestation . . . but just reforesting thousands of square miles doesn't mean they'll be transformed into the microclimate you want them to have.  I'll be watching the progress of similar projects with great interest.  Ethiopia is planting 50 billion trees;  there's the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel;  and India has The Great Green Wall of Aravalli.  I wonder if they'll all run into the same problem?

(There's also the colonial-era Great Hedge of India, designed to prevent unwanted border crossing in either direction.  Perhaps the Border Patrol might like to investigate that project?)

Peter

Lessons learned from the snowstorm - reader questions answered

 

As we gently "melt out" from the snow and ice of the past few days, a number of readers e-mailed me to describe problems they'd encountered, and to ask about aspects of emergency preparation in such weather.  Of particular importance to them was solutions that will work in extreme cold, when the power's out for an indeterminate period.

Let's start with light.  The simplest, easiest and cheapest way to light your home for a few hours, or days, or even weeks, are the pull-up camping lanterns available under various brand names (but probably all made in the same Chinese factory).  This is the cheapest 4-pack on Amazon at the time of writing:

They run on 3 AA batteries, which give several hours' bright light.  They're very lightweight, too, and one can use the handle to hang them from any convenient hook or branch, or stand them on a firm surface.  To use them, just pull the top up (or partway up if you want less light).  I've used them for years.  Some may not work very long, because they're Chinesium, and quality is an afterthought for many such products;  but at the price, it's hard to complain.  I keep half a dozen handy for emergency use.  You should also keep a few flashlights on hand to carry around as needed.  Candles, tea-lights, etc. are useful if you have a safe place to burn them, but they do add to the fire danger, and you leave them unattended at your own risk.

What about generators?  Very useful, but also very noisy, and thirsty for fuel if power remains out for several days.  They also have to run outdoors, for safety reasons (carbon monoxide from their exhaust will kill you deader than dead if you run them indoors).  I have a smallish, lower-cost model, which I'll use mostly to charge up my battery power banks if and when necessary.  It doesn't produce enough power to run all our electrical appliances.  (If you can afford it, you can by all means consider a whole-house generator and a dedicated fuel tank to run it for a week or more, but they're usually very expensive.)

Another problem with generators is theft.  They're in high demand during weather emergencies.  There are those who travel around in such conditions, listening for the sound of generators or evidence of their presence such as lights at night, and then steal them from wherever you've put them.  It happened to a friend of mine not far from here a couple of years ago, not 48 hours after he bought the unit.  The thieves waited until the small hours of the morning, when the generator wasn't in use, then cut the chain he'd used to fasten it to a pillar and carried it off.  He was not a happy camper, to put it mildly!

If you rely on a fuelled generator, make sure you have one powerful enough to run all the appliances you want to use:  then calculate its fuel consumption under load (not just idling).  A lot of manufacturers won't give you that information in their sales brochure, so you might have to dig around to find it, or establish it by trial and error.  Once you know what it is, store enough gasoline or propane to run the generator for however long you might need it.  That adds up very quickly, by the way:  for a large generator, you may need up to 10-15 gallons per day.  Smaller ones are rather more economical.  (Don't forget oil:  if you have a new generator, you'll normally be expected to change its lubricant after 20-30 hours of operation, and at regular intervals thereafter.  Spark plugs of the right size, plus spare air and oil filters, are also worth keeping in stock.  A trickle charger to keep the generator battery topped up isn't a bad idea, either.)

Finally, run the generator regularly to make sure it's in good working order.  Some recommend every month;  others, every quarter.  If it won't start when you desperately need it, you aren't going to be very happy (and even less so when your family finds out)!

My preferred solution for electric power is to use one or more electric power banks, which are sometimes referred to as power generators or solar generators.  They usually offer a more expensive solution than generators (at least, at today's prices), but they're also much more convenient, can be carried to wherever you need them, can be easily recharged by even a small generator, and don't smell of exhaust fumes or drip fuel and oil on your floor!  There are many models, some of which you'll find at the link above, but I'd divide them into three size categories based on likely use.

The first are small power banks up to 1KW (kilowatt - 1,000 watts) in power and a similar storage capacity in KWh (kilowatt-hours - the energy used to produce one kilowatt of power for one hour).  These can't run anything very big in power draw, but for lightweight use (portable lights with LED bulbs, charging cellphones or tablets, game consoles, etc.) they can be very convenient.  I know some families who keep a couple on hand to let their kids use them while Mom and Dad use a larger power bank for larger power needs (e.g. TV, DVD player, computer, etc.)  Small units are also useful to power low-draw appliances such as a CPAP machine or oxygen generating device, which are often important for home health care.  Check the appliance's power draw and make sure the battery bank you buy has adequate power and storage capacity to cope with its needs.

The next category is what I'll call medium power banks, 1.5-4KW in power and a similar storage capacity in KWh.  These are general-purpose workhorses, usually portable, and with enough stored energy to be useful for several hours before needing to be recharged.  My personal favorite at present is the Bluetti Elite 400, for two reasons:  one, its capacities are 2.6KW power and 3.84KWh storage capacity, which meet most of our needs, and two, it's on wheels with an extendable handle.  Being a larger, heavier unit (about 85 pounds), and because my wife and I both have health issues restricting us from lifting heavy loads, the Elite 400 is much easier for us to move around the house if necessary.  There are, of course, many competitors to the Bluetti.  Shop around and see which you prefer.  Also, don't forget extension cords so you can plug in your fridge, freezer(s), etc. to the power bank, no matter where it is.

Finally, there are whole-house battery banks, some from providers such as Bluetti, some permanent installations such as the Tesla Powerwall.  Such banks are much larger than portable units, and many require professional installation, usually along with solar power panels to keep them charged when grid power is shut off for any reason.  They're an excellent solution, but very expensive;  the least you can expect to pay for all components (batteries, solar panels, wiring, plus installation) is usually $25,000 or more.  On the other hand, they tend to work very well, and give owners peace of mind.  (For example, you can read Divemedic's blog posts on his Florida installation at this link, from most recent to oldest.)

I find battery banks' convenience and ease of use to be head and shoulders above any other low- to medium-cost solution.  We have the equivalent of about 14KWh stored across a few units, charged and ready to go, which should be enough to get us through two to three days before we have to run a generator to recharge them.  With judicious use and not wasting power, I think we could go several weeks without electricity from the grid, if we had to.

What about heat?  If the HVAC system goes out, we're reduced to what we can power using our battery banks and/or generator.  In both cases, in extreme temperatures, we'd move into one or two rooms and heat or cool only them.  For heating indoors, a fireplace is a very desirable option, and/or a wood-burning stove:  if you don't have one, but can fit one to your home at an affordable price, I highly recommend it.  Otherwise, I use and recommend the Mr. Buddy propane indoor-safe heaters, which utilize the familiar green Coleman fuel cylinders and can be fitted with an adapter to run them off conventional propane cylinders.  (With any fire or propane heater, remember the danger from carbon monoxide, and take appropriate precautions!)

There are electric options if you don't like fire or other fuel.  Given a suitable size of power bank, you can buy low-power electric heaters from 400W up to about 900W.  A medium-size power bank can run a 400-500W heater all night long.  They're not very hot, but will warm a 10x10 foot bedroom, which will do nicely in freezing weather.  Larger rooms, not so much - but then, in an emergency, one has to compensate by adjusting one's lifestyle.  If you have an electric blanket, a medium-size power bank will also run that all night long, making things very snug.

What if it's summer, and you want to keep things cool?  Air-conditioning units are power hogs, to put it mildly.  Even the smallest window or stand-alone unit will drain an average power bank in a couple of hours.  I'd suggest using fans instead of air-conditioners, and venting the hot air inside through windows and doors as the day cools down.  Only a whole-house power backup system will allow you to run your HVAC as usual, even without incoming power from the grid.

Cooking?  Use camping gear such as butane or propane stoves.  They're simple, relatively cheap, and work on almost any surface.  You won't (I hope!) burn them long enough to pose a carbon monoxide hazard:  if that worries you, use them on a table in your garage.  I'd suggest having two burners, because a single burner might limit what dishes you can cook (and get extra fuel cartridges for them).  The good old Coleman 2-burner camping stove has been around for decades, and still works well, but it's a lot more expensive than it used to be.  Buying two single-burner butane stoves can often be much cheaper.  Make sure to clean the stove(s) and cooking utensils thoroughly;  sanitary cooking conditions are important for your family's health.

I won't speak to needs such as food, clothing, warm blankets, etc.  We've addressed those subjects several times in the past, and many Web sites have done likewise.  You pays your money and you takes your choice.  However, there are a few things you'll do well to remember.

1. If your kids need to be entertained, have a stock of board games, coloring books and crayons, etc. on hand.  Game consoles, etc. are not useful if you can't switch them on!  TV's can be a problem because of their power consumption.  If you want to use one, get an extra power bank for the purpose.
2. Batteries, batteries, BATTERIES!!!  Make a note of what size of battery (AAA, AA, C-cell, D-cell, 9V, etc.) your toys and small appliances need, and then stock up on them (and rotate your stocks frequently, so you always have fresh supplies when you need them).  I keep at least 50 AAA and 50 AA cells on hand, and I try to buy only small battery appliances that use that size.  I have a dozen C- and D-cells, and 9V as well, just in case.  For a larger family, I'd say 100 of each important size is not unreasonable.
3. If it's going to freeze, get your emergency supplies into the house and out of the worst cold before the storm hits, if possible.  It's no fun to have a week's water in reserve, in case your taps and/or pipes freeze up - only to find that your reserve water containers are also frozen!
4. Have plenty of paper plates and bowls, and plastic drinking cups, available.  That way, you won't have to waste water and time washing up dishes.  You can simply throw it all away.
5. For your vehicles, have windscreen de-icing fluid, ice scrapers, show brushes, etc. on hand, and use them regularly so you can drive if you have to.  It may be better not to, but if you have to get a family member to a doctor or hospital quickly, or evacuate to a hotel if your home becomes uninhabitable for some reason, you want to be able to move quickly.
6. Keep in touch with friends and family nearby.  Make sure everybody's OK.  You could save lives that way.

That's a quick pass through most of the questions I was asked.  If you have something I haven't addressed, please ask it in Comments:  and readers, please feel free to answer such questions, or contribute ideas from your own experience.  We can all learn from each other.

Stay safe out there!

Peter

Quick post-storm update, and preliminary thoughts on Minneapolis unrest

 

The world outside is blanketed with a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain, which have combined to bed down into a 3" to 4" thick layer over everything.  One can walk on it if one's careful about one's balance, but put a foot wrong and it's slip slidin' away . . .

I won't go out today, because with my spine injury, balance is sometimes hard to maintain - and I don't want to have to call for an ambulance while lying in that icy, snowy blanket on the ground!  My wife has had to go to work, but it's only a couple of miles from here, and she's from Alaska!  She's been grinning broadly at all the complaints from locals about how snowed-in we are, and how difficult it is to drive, and so on.  Needless to say, her comparisons between here and Alaska have been great fun!  She should have no trouble driving to work and back.

I guess readers in the north-east are still getting the snow, sleet and freezing rain that left here a day or two ago.  Stay safe up there, please.  I know you're more used to this than we are, but Mother Nature is still a stone cold bitch who'll kill you at the drop of a hat (and sometimes drop it herself, if she's feeling that way inclined).

I've had a few e-mails asking me why I'm not commenting at greater length on the situation in Minneapolis right now.  Three points:

1. The 72-hour rule applies:  wait three days for the details to be established before you say something that might not be accurate.  I'll write about it tomorrow.
2. There's so much organization and purpose behind the civil unrest in Minneapolis that it qualifies as an insurrection, by any classical definition you choose.  This is not an angry public protesting - it's an organized militant group playing on public emotions and manipulating many (most?) of the protesters.  It's also a very clear attempt by the Minneapolis/Minnesota authorities to divert attention from the immense fraud perpetrated upon the people of Minnesota by criminal elements, including some of those authorities.  There's a lot more to come out about all that.
3. I am deeply, deeply concerned about the ruthlessness and purposefulness of the organizers behind these protests.  They remind me of the unrest in Southern states prior to the Civil war - think attacks on state militia troops passing through Baltimore, the Southern seizure of Federal property, and firing on a Federal installation.  As Divemedic (rightly, in my opinion) warns:  "At this point, we are closer to a Civil War than we have been in more than 60 years."

Pray for peace, but prepare for this uprising in case it spreads to your area.  If you live in a large city (particularly with left-wing politics) or anywhere nearby, that goes double for you.

Peter

A quick storm update from northern Texas

 

So far, so good.  The major roads in our area are skating rinks, and a light sleet is falling (more like ice dust at present).  We're told that snow will arrive later today, extending through the evening.  The birds are thick in the branches of our backyard tree, and complaining bitterly that their water dish is frozen and their food is buried under a layer of ice.  Our cats want us to let them indoors, so they can "assist them by warming them up by chasing them".  Er . . . no!

We have an abundance of food and warm layers to wear.  If the power goes out, we have a camping cookstove and plenty of fuel for it, a few decent-size power banks, a couple of kerosene heaters and fuel for them (not to be used in the house, but they'll keep the garage from freezing), a generator, and plenty of gasoline for it.  I think we're as prepared as we can be on a limited budget.

Most of our group of co-conspirators partners in crime friends appear to be doing OK.  Our usual Saturday supper together isn't happening this weekend, because most of us would end up in the ditch or hitting something expensive if we tried to drive.  We'll make up for it next week.

I hope all is well with you, dear readers.  Let us know in Comments how you're faring.

Peter

Batten down the hatches!

 

It looks like the first Snowmageddon and Icemageddon of the year are about to hit us (well, maybe the second Icemageddon, if you count the first as being what ICE is up to in Minnesota, Maine and elsewhere).  The stores around here are pretty much sold out of anything that looks like ice scrapers, snow brushes, windshield de-icing fluid, and so on.  Firewood is at a premium, propane gas cylinders are being refilled until the suppliers run out, and appliances using propane, white fuel or kerosene are in short supply.

I haven't had to buy much, as we're pretty well supplied most of the time.  I just have to bring into the house enough firewood for a couple of days, a propane cookstove and small heater in case the power goes out, and charge up our battery power banks, which should give us two days or so of portable electric power if needed.  Our generator decided not to start when I tested it, so I picked up the necessary bits and pieces to service it tomorrow.  It shouldn't be too hard to get it going.

It does look as if this is going to be a very big, very widespread storm.  Those of you in the path of the heaviest predicted ice and snow, which looks to be from southern Oklahoma and north-eastern Texas through to Washington D.C. and surrounding area, please be careful.  Ice beneath heavy snow is a really nasty thing to encounter - particularly when the snow turns to slush, but the ice beneath is still frozen.  Skid city!

(One of my favorite memories of my time in Louisiana was the New Year of 2000 - or was it 2001?  At any rate, I had to drive from Winnfield to Monroe to attend a medical examination for my green card (permanent resident permit), which I couldn't miss because it would knock me out of the process until another could be scheduled.  There was an ice storm the day and night before.  When I got up next morning, the world was white and sparkly, and the roads were pretty frozen.  I had no choice but to drive, so I left two hours early in my rear-wheel-drive pickup and drove the whole way, very gingerly, at about 20-25 mph.  The whole way up, I passed four-wheel-drive pickups in the ditch, one every few hundred yards.  Louisiana state police were in attendance at many of them, and I learned some new words from some of them about rednecks and Cajuns - or worse, Cajun rednecks! - who thought they could drive on ice as they normally did, so long as they did so in four-wheel-drive.  Of course, all that got them was a four-wheel skid!  I made it safely to Monroe, albeit with a few scares and slides, and made it back the same way.  Not fun!)

Anyway, I hope and pray all of you are (and will continue to be) safe and well, and warmly bundled up against the snow and ice.  Power failures are forecast to be widespread, so if this blog doesn't come up for a few days, that'll probably be the reason.  (I may have emergency power at home, but the Internet service will probably be down.)  I'll see you when I see you.

Peter

Rather shorter than my driving time!

 

It seems there's a new world record for the longest distance covered by a single flash of lightning.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that a 515-mile-long "megaflash" of lightning in 2017 is a new world record.

The flash, a term for lightning inside a cloud that does not hit the ground, moved from northern Texas into Missouri and was part of a Mesoscale Convective System, a large complex of thunderstorms, on Oct. 22, 2017. This new lightning flash beats the previous record of 477 miles set by a flash on April 29, 2020.

There's more at the link.

If I'm reading that image correctly, the flash took about 7 seconds to cover 515 miles.  Having driven over a similar route between Texas and Missouri in the past, I can only wish that road travel was even a thousandth of that speed!

Peter

Murphy is a weather law in Texas

 

Texas weather is . . . unpredictable.  From the Iowa Park Journal this week:

They planned their roof renovation on the basis of a clear weather forecast.  Had they never heard of Murphy's Law???

Peter

We picked a bad week for travel...

 

... as CNN warns:

A potent heat dome is building over the US, sending temperatures into the triple digits

Looks like our perambulations this week are going to be right under the dome.  Air-conditioning, don't fail us now!

Peter

Wild night

 

We got clobbered by a major line of storms last night.  On the way through it did major damage to Seymour, TX (report with pictures here) and several other towns.  Two tornadoes passed within a few miles of our home, and a third appears to have passed overhead while it was still forming, touching down a few miles north of us.  It looks like we got hit by a so-called "supercell".  Nearby, parts of Wichita Falls are flooded, and several local rivers will reach flood stage over the next 24 hours or so, in some cases rivaling or perhaps even exceeding previous records.

My wife was working her usual swing shift at a local airport, and stayed there when the shift ended until the worst of the storm had blown through.  She was safe enough there (the nearest tornado shelter is about 25 feet from her office!), but it was "sporty".  She says a local sheriff's deputy parked outside, probably in case he needed to get out of his car and seek shelter in a hurry.  It was that kind of night.  (You can read Old NFO's experiences of it here.)

I'll be going into Wichita Falls later this morning, and I'll look around to see how much damage was done.  The river there should be rising like an out-of-control elevator by this afternoon.  There are really big, deep drainage channels running through town, usually bone-dry or with a mere trickle in the bottom.  I suspect they'll be overflowing by this time tomorrow!

Peter

Sunday morning music will be delayed

 

Sorry - after a long and very stormy evening (rain, wind, hail, thunderstorms and not-too-distant tornadoes), I got to bed late, and overslept.  I'll try to put up a music post later today.

Peter

That's what happens when you rely on politically correct bureaucrats

 

Looks like Britain's Meteorological Office has been lying to the public.

Shocking evidence has emerged that points to the U.K. Met Office inventing temperature data from over 100 non-existent weather stations ... citizen journalist Ray Sanders ... has discovered that 103 stations out of 302 sites supplying temperature averages do not exist. “How would any reasonable observer know that the data was not real and simply ‘made up’ by a Government agency,” asks Sanders. He calls for an “open declaration” of likely inaccuracy of existing published data, “to avoid other institutions and researchers using unreliable data and reaching erroneous conclusions”.

. . .

Of the 302 sites quoted, Sanders notes that the Met Office “declined to advise me” exactly how or where the alleged ‘data’ were derived for these 103 non-existent sites.

The practice of ‘inventing’ temperature data from non-existent stations is a controversial issue in the United States where the local weather service NOAA has been charged with fabricating data for more than 30% of its reporting sites. Data are retrieved from surrounding stations and the resulting averages are given an ‘E’ for estimate. “The addition of the ghost station data means NOAA’s monthly and yearly reports are not representative of reality,” says meteorologist Anthony Watts. “If this kind of process were used in a court of law, then the evidence would be thrown out as being polluted,” he added.

There's more at the link.

Let's not forget that British law, as far as climate change considerations are concerned, is heavily based upon what the Met Office tells the politicians in power.  The British Civil Service is like the "deep state" in the USA:  its members and management go on regardless of whatever political party forms the government, and they can (and do) drive government policy in many areas by supplying facts and figures on which the politicians base their proposed laws.  By deliberately lying about weather readings, the Met is deliberately deceiving the politicians who make British law, and hence undermining those laws and rendering them less than accurate or effective.

Let's not forget, bureaucrats like that also make decisions that lead to murdering innocent animals on the grounds that they violate some minor regulation.  I daresay there are British equivalents of Peanut, if one looks hard enough.  Give an unelected bureaucrat unfettered regulatory power, and he'll use it, regardless of whether it's the best or most appropriate solution to a problem or not.  He won't care.  He's not elected, and therefore not answerable to anybody except his fellow bureaucrats - who can be relied upon to cover for him whenever necessary.

Elon Musk is already talking about slashing the Federal bureaucracy in this country.  Might be a good idea to offer his services to the British government as well, to cut their civil servants down to size.

Bureaucrats!  Grrrr!

Peter

True dat

 

From the Conservative Curmudgeon on MeWe (I can't link directly to his post, unfortunately):

Here in Florida the day after MiIton I see a lot of people helping. Linemen from all over North America. Police. Firemen. Medical people. Churches. Rednecks. Florida Guard. Neighbors.

Who I don't see helping . . . . . LGBT-P. BLM. ACLU. Planned Parenthood. Climate activists. The teacher's or IRS unions.

Quite so!  When the objective is to make a noise and get noticed, the latter are past masters at it.  When it comes to actually getting things done . . . not so much.

Peter

Detailed after-action report from North Carolina

 

Regular readers will have seen mention of Killer Bees Honey in these pages on several occasions.  They produce what I believe may be the finest honey in North America.  The "beekeeper", Sean, is an online friend of many years' standing.

The apiary is in the the Pisgah National Forest area of North Carolina, and took a pounding from Hurricane Helene last week.  Here's Sean's after action report to his friends, shared on this blog with his permission.

Things are slowly returning to normal here. Food is coming back onto the grocery store shelves, but it’s still cash only for some. Banks are still limiting withdrawals of $1k.

As I wrote the below, I continually thought about your dealings with Katrina.

Sean

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Like all good horror stories involving a demonic woman, it began in the darkness of night. I awoke Friday at 0230 and watched as the metal patio furniture, sans cushions traveled S/B past the bedroom windows. My drowsy WTF reaction was mirrored by the cats WTF stare. The whole house generator had already kicked on. Ten minutes later and with a head lamp piercing the driving rain, I was in the lower bee yard placing heavier rocks on the hives. When I was done, Helene’s 55 knot gusts were pushing the hives off their foundation. Luckily, each hive had around 65 pounds of stored winter honey. I’m sure that’s what kept them from being blown over. I could not say the same for me as I had to get on my hands and knees with each blast of wind. Retreating back to the safety of the house, I could hear trees falling, some snapping in half deep in the forest around me. No bueno. All I could now do is start the coffee maker and wait for dawn. First light came with continued howling winds and rain. A sourwood tree narrowly missed the house and was laying across the pad in front of the kitchen window. Its leaf laden boughs frantically waving to me in distress with each shock of wind.Too dangerous to step outside, I went downstairs to the mechanical room to begin the quick process of charging up the battery bank.

Since then it’s been a total shit show in WNC. I celebrated my 69th birthday chainsawing my way down our mile long driveway. Two days, several naps and six bar chains later, the driveway was passable. This can’t be said for adjacent mountain roads. The 26” of rain washed out or made local roads and bridges impassable. I jumped into the Polaris Ranger once I cleared the driveway and drove the four miles to the main road. What I saw can only be described as post apocalyptic. Neighbors working chainsaws clearing roads and driveways. Head on collisions of trees into houses. Many homes were uninhabitable. Peaceful creeks and flowing water rock falls turned into churning rivers and torrential waterfalls. Bridges and damns were breached. Duke power was releasing water from lakes causing more destruction, but they had no choice; a damn failure would have been more disastrous. 

The ham radio community immediately initiated an emergency net. Numerous surrounding repeaters were connected and a call went out for volunteers, SAR and swift water rescue crews. This was the only way to communicate for four days. People from all over the world were using their HF stations to contact net control for welfare checks on loved ones or family members. Net control then used UHF and VHF frequencies to contact local ham operators. They in turn left the safety of their homes to brave dangerous conditions. Some had to abandon their cars and hike into hazardous conditions. It was heartbreaking to hear one station report back on a welfare check of an isolated elderly couple's home located deep in a holler. He radioed that all he found was a driveway at the end of which was a raging river.

I was on generator and battery b/u power for nearly five days. There was no damage to the hives and out buildings. AVL was closed to all traffic for four days. Denise was in Chicago, but I was able to pick her up when HWY 64 and the airport reopened. My immediate neighbors, a young family of five had no power. I gave them a five gallon water bladder, a daily thermos of coffee, venison and a Honda 2200 generator along with a jerry can of gas to keep the fridge and essentials powered. They came up to the house to eat and shower, but left last Wednesday to be with relatives in Raleigh. 

We now have grid power and cellular. WISP (internet) is spotty.

Intial Impact

Massive flooding and wind destruction. Total devastation. No power. No cellular. No internet. No water. Land lines were down. Everything was closed. Many towns and communities were literally swept away. Chimney Rock, Swannanoa no longer exist. Boone and half of Asheville were inundated with water. Interstates 40, 26 and HWY 64 were impassable. The geography was literally changed by the flood. I don’t know how some roads, businesses and homes can be rebuilt. Many deaths; a community near the French Broad river in Hendersonville was told to evacuate at the beginning of the storm. Some stayed. Two days later, several bodies were found hanging out of windows and trees. Five were found in a debris field a mile away. Around 250 water plants were destroyed or inundated with muddy water and won’t be operational for weeks if not months. Within 24 hours 37 private helicopters were air dropping food and water to isolated communities. FEMA was non existent.It was private citizens and small businesses helping each other. 

Presently

230 deaths and rising. Nearly 1000 still missing. I was talking to a local Sheriff’s Lt who said they’ll be pulling bodies out of debris fields through the holidays. 50% of homes in the county are still without power.  Most roads leading into town are clear. Interstate 40 at the TN border will remain closed for approximately a year during repair. 26 now has passable lanes, but will need repair. Hwy 9 leading into Chimney Rock is non existent. Hwy 19 leading into Asheville is severely damaged and unusable. All national and state parks are closed due to immense tree falls and trail damage. The Blue Ridge Parkway and all buildings along the Pkw are closed. The nearest town to us is Brevard which now has power. Prior to that, the local grocery stores were open for two days after the event, but it was cash only. I understand they closed soon thereafter because they were cleaned out. Propane is still in short supply. Gas stations which have power have no 93% and are limiting gas to ten gallons per vehicle. There isn’t any non ethanol gas. Lines for gas go for 100’s of yards. Portable generators along with chainsaws and 2 stroke fuel are sold out. Nightly looting around Asheville. The Ingles (grocery) warehouse and Walmart were looted within 24 hours of the storm. Cash only stores and gas stations are causing a run on the banks. As a result, customers are only aloud $1K cash withdrawals. Essentials such as food, water, diapers and baby formula are currently being distributed at churches and community centers by local citizens. What people need isn’t FEMA’s $750. They need food and water. It’s been eight days and some isolated communities are literally going hungry. Good Samaritans, some from out of state trying to reach those in need are being held up at gun point for supplies. There is fear among health professionals of dysentery caused by lack of clean water and unsanitary conditions. 

I read there is a loss of some 60,000 bee hives in the Southeast. There may be greater losses if beekeepers can’t get to the remaining hives and feed them sugar water. My bees are good; they keep their first 65 pounds of spring wildflower honey for the winter.

There were multiple episodes of civil unrest and violence. A dude in Brevard shot out the tires of someone else cutting into a gas line. A fist fight broke out near the local credit union. My bee out yard is near a sketchy neighborhood. Apparently, some local meth heads broke into a home thinking the owners had split. Nope. The husband comes out of the bedroom busting caps from a 357 revolver… we’re old school up here. Said meth heads retreated to their vehicle and returned fire. Husbands wife opens the bedroom window and throws down with a full mag from an AR-10. The next morning nothing was found other than broken glass and some blood. The sheriff’s dept. never responded because no one called (no phones) Like I said, old school.

For further information, I urge you to read the below link regarding Helene’s impact written by an eloquent local writer for USA Today:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/10/03/helene-asheville-north-carolina-flooding-climate-change/75490093007/

Opinion: Helene devastated my NC community. What I saw next helped me survive.

My Preps

My wife and I live in the Lake Toxaway zip code area, but not in the HOA. We have 75 acres on the apex of Walnut Cove Mountain. Our driveway is exactly one mile long. We are surrounded by 512,000 acres of the Pisgah National Forest and game lands which is adjacent to the Great Smokey Mountains National Park and Nantahala Wilderness. We are very isolated from the rest of the world which is fine by me. Most of my prep education came from being a LEO out of Southern California. I was an active participant in earthquakes, wildfires and riots. Until recently, I was a certified AEMT and SAR member. Presently, I am a beekeeper, a full time house bitch and part time sex slave. Titles I proudly embrace. I hunt deer, wild turkey and bear off my property. My wife, Denise is a retired CFO of a company in NYC. She is an anti gun liberal who happens to know the benefits of capitalism. Go figure.

All our preps worked out amazingly well and without issues. From the initial storm to grid up, all I missed were fresh bananas. First world problem.

Power: We are grid tied with 21 roof mounted solar panels producing 7kW midday. Energy we don’t use from the PV system is stored in a Sonnen Battery 18kW system. During grid down situations, which happens a lot up here, A 30kW, water cooled, Generac powers the entire house. Combined with a buried 1000 gallon propane tank, I can live off grid indefinitely. The Generac was utilized just three hours a day to charge the batteries until I had full sun. Afterwards, everything was powered by stored solar energy. 

Water: We are on a well and septic system. The well is powered by both the grid or generator and PV array/Sonnen system.

Food: I have three freezers filled with wild game. Most I give away to my sister’s in law who are also anti gun liberals, but will take wild meat killed with my guns. Again, go figure. Besides the wild game, we have two walk in pantries filled with supplies for immediate use. I have other food supplies for the real ZA. Bags and cans of food for the Children of Satan (cats).

Cooking: Propane stove top. Electric range. Outside propane grill with multiple tanks. 

Fuel: I have several caddies filled with 93 [octane] non ethanol gas treated with Startron. We have several vehicles including a UTV and ATV. Both with winches and other accessories to make them more functional for our mountainous property. We have not been to a gas station since Sept 26.

Security. Multiple overlapping surveillance systems one on a local server (not dependent on WiFi or cellular)

I have preps specific for such events and had the chainsaws gassed and ready. All vehicles were gassed up and garaged. Speaking of preps, it’s a bit ironic that Sept was “preparedness month” and the national prepper conference in nearby Sylva was washed away. Both emails I received two Thursdays ago saying it was definitely on was not only irresponsible, but dangerous. Stupid decisions lead to stupid results.

Fall back: A separate fully functional building with a Jotul wood stove, running water and stored cots with sleeping bags. 

Fall back #2: A sprinter 170 chassis van converted by Outside Vans in OR. It has 45 gallons of diesel fuel, 20 gallons of fresh water and 630 amp hours of lithium ion batteries with solar. The van has a Guzzle H20 which can purify more water (we have 3500 linear feet of spring fed streams on the property).

Hope everyone is well. 

Sounds like Sean and his wife had quite a time of it.  Good to know you're both safe, buddy, along with your bees!  Thanks for the great after-action report and feedback.  We'll all learn from it.

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:  Take note of the "cash only" nature of business after the storm.  This happens very often when power and/or communications are knocked out.  If you haven't got an emergency cash reserve at home, this can leave you stranded, particularly if banks aren't open for any reason.

Killer Bees Honey is currently donating all profits from honey and merchandise sales to local hurricane recovery efforts.  If you'd like to support them, please do - and enjoy the honey!  They haven't yet updated their Web site to reflect that, because Web access is extremely difficult for them right now;  but that'll happen soon, I'm sure.

Peter

Heléne and Milton: hurricane-force reminders of basic precautions

 

Big Country Expat offers an acerbic, occasionally profane, and very practical look at hurricane relief efforts in North Carolina after Hurricane Heléne, and what he's doing to prepare near Tampa, Florida.  (His home is right in the bullseye of where Hurricane Milton is expected to come ashore tonight or early tomorrow).  An example from his report:

Speak of fuel and whatnot… a interesting thing we saw:  On the way home we saw ‘cop lights’ coming up going Northbound on I-75, not in hi-pursuit but escorting -something- That in itself wasn’t the odd thing… we see **** like that everywhere, all the time right?

In this case, Sapper and I both thought “oversized load” until we saw it was Two Florida State Police Cruisers escorting a RaceTrac Fuel Truck!

THAT was a first in 20+ years and multiple -other- storms I’ve been through in the past. I’ve not seen an ‘armed escort’ ever here stateside… Mind you, I did see on Twitter a mention of a near-riot in or around Sarasota (south of me) that some asshole pulled a handgun and tried to hijack a gas truck that was trying to refuel a service station… Mind you also there’s been ZERO mention of anything like that on even the local news, so the Memory Hole is activated like a mother****** I’m guessing. I’m personally not sure if I’m more worried about the memory hole or that things are already that potentially bad already. Time will tell.

Load another magazine and watch my lane I suppose…

There's more at the link.  Entertaining and worthwhile reading (albeit profane in parts).

Karl Denninger reminds us of several essential basics in preparing for any sort of disaster.  There are many more, but these are fundamental and must be addressed first.  Emphasis in original.

Concentrate your efforts on the basics of human need because in a disaster that's what matters most and expect even in a population area to be able to self-provide for at least a week.  The first and most-basic human need is air; if you can't breathe it you're dead.  Fires and toxins are real risks, but they're also ones that when it comes to breathable air your best option is to run at the first hint of trouble no matter where you are.

Second is drinkable water.  Assuming you are not inordinately stressed you might make three days.  You're probably worthless in two days and children are more susceptible to serious dehydration because their skin area is larger on a percentage basis, so they typically cannot make it past two days and are effectively useless in one day.  Do not expect help to reach you under any circumstance until roughly that amount of time and perhaps more.  Even with "local" relief that ignores exhortations to not go help personally (like here after Helene) it still will take that long because until people can get in there that's just how it is.

Any allegedly "fresh" water source after a disaster has to be presumed contaminated and unsafe unless you have the means to treat it, and there are chemical contamination risks that cannot be reasonably mitigated in a disaster situation at all with water at ground level.  If you have a traditional hot water heater and your home or other residence is physically intact you have somewhere around 50 gallons of usable water in it.  It should still be filtered with a Sawyer and/or treated with Aquamira drops (yes, buy both well in advance!) before consumption, particularly after a few days, but it will not be full of contaminants because it was full of clean water when the system went down.  Keep a short hose around for this purpose and make sure you turn off the electrical or gas feed so once you start using it when water is restored it does not "dry fire."  If you do not have any source of stored water (e.g. you have a tankless system and didn't fill anything in advance) then bottled water is your next and last resort.  Everyone needs to be prepared to deal with this all the time; even if you're on a private well if there's no power the pump won't work (more on that in a minute.)

Third is personal shelter from elements, which includes clothing and similar.  Enough to be out of the wind and elements (e.g. rain, etc.) is frequently enough but not always.  Being wet, particularly in wind, can nail you with hypothermia even in moderately cool temperatures and in colder temperatures it is rapidly deadly.  Some of this is beyond your control and if your housing is destroyed in adverse circumstances securing from that problem is, after immediate threats (e.g. incoming flash flooding) your first priority.  Tools of some description, all the way down to a pocket knife, make a difference -- perhaps a really big difference.  Having some preparation against this (e.g. a shell rain jacket, disposable space blankets, etc.) is inexpensive and everyone should have at least some elements of that available at any time.

The last utter essential is personal protection.  It would be nice if people didn't try to take advantage but some will.  Remember that the option to accept a "lesser injury" does not exist when there is no prompt medical care available, and there won't be in this situation.  Exactly what you choose to do in this regard is a personal choice and I won't go into it on this side of the blog but it is critical to remember that any significant injury can trivially wind up being fatal if you can't get medical attention for a day or two.

The rest is very situational but these first points are not.

Again, more at the link.  Recommended reading.

Good luck to my friends and acquaintances in Florida as Milton draws near.  We'll be praying for you.

Peter

Powerless?

 

It looks like the damage wreaked by Hurricane Helene is going to last a whole lot longer than people might wish.  The electrical grid in North Carolina and Georgia looks to have suffered really severe damage.

"Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure," National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher Killian McKenna said, who was recently quoted by PV Magazine. 

McKenna pointed out, "But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything."

Other reasons for the transformer shortages besides power grid upgrades include raw material sourcing problems, pandemic-related supply chain woes and backlogs, labor constraints, shipping issues, and geopolitical tensions. 

Given all of this, Jesse D. Jenkins, an assistant professor and macro-energy systems engineering and policy expert at Princeton University, responded to the dire situation of a grid apocalypse playing out in the Southeast US:  "This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure?"

Making matters worse for residents of North Carolina, some X users are pointing out the Biden-Harris administration supplied transformers to Ukraine. It's unclear if these transformers were drained for US stockpiles. Meanwhile, others note that Ukraine uses a different electrical system than the US.

What's not questionable is this: Earlier this year, US ambassador to Kyiv Bridget Brink jumped for joy on X, indicating United States Agency for International Development delivered "50 voltage transformers, 9 current transformers, & 80 isolators."

There's more at the link.

I had an interesting exchange on that subject with a correspondent today.  He's a retired electrical engineer who spent his career with major utilities and power transmission systems.  He said he's hearing from former colleagues that an unspecified federal agency is approaching major power utilities in multiple states, asking them to shut down one or two sub-stations in major urban areas and make their equipment available to hurricane-affected areas.  The utilities are being reassured that this would "only" mean that they'd have to cut power for "an hour or two at a time" to nearby suburbs, rotating the load among their other sub-stations.  This would "share the survivors' load" with their customers, who would surely not complain at being asked to provide relief of this kind.  He told me that the utilities concerned (at least, the ones where he has contacts) are refusing to even consider the proposal, on the grounds that if they were to shut down local consumers because areas hundreds or even thousands of miles away had problems, those same consumers would start shooting at their trucks (and their workers) as they tried to dismantle and haul away the selected sub-stations.  Sounds to me like they know their customers!

The extent of the fallout from Hurricane Helene's damage has only just begun to be realized.  It's going to take, not months, but years to get over the worst of it.  To name just a few points:

• The demand for domestic generators in the affected areas is already off the charts, and if sub-stations can't be restored, they'll be in use for months - something consumer-grade generators are not designed to do.
• Can consumers afford the fuel cost to run them, and also to replace them when they wear out - and will replacements be available?
• Meanwhile, what happens if a major international crisis threatens or delays the ordering and/or shipment of replacement sub-station and transmission line equipment from China - apparently the only country that now manufactures much of what's needed?

Got batteries?

Peter

Looks like the Cape of Storms continues to live up to its original name

 

When, in 1487, Portuguese explorer Bartolomeu Dias became the first European to round what is today called the Cape of Good Hope, he named it "Cabo das Tormentas", or the Cape of Storms.  Upon his return to Portugal, King John II renamed it "Cabo da Boa Esperança" (Cape of Good Hope) because it was the first concrete evidence that a sea route around Africa to the Indian subcontinent was possible.  (It's also said that he wanted to encourage further exploration and settlement there, and felt that the new name would be more marketable!)

However, the stormy aspect of the Cape continues to make itself felt.  Many ships have come to grief in the gigantic rogue waves for which the area is notorious.  I remember going to the quayside in Cape Town in 1974 to inspect the Wilstar, a Norwegian supertanker that was clobbered by a rogue wave.  It made a hole big enough to drive a double-decker bus through it!

It seems the storms are as bad as ever.

Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope was regarded as foolhardy in the days of tall ships and wooden hulls. But even for the sophisticated vessels of today, there are dangers.

Two recent high-profile container-loss incidents – the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin lost 44 boxes with damage to another 30 in July, and 99 containers were lost this month from CMA CGM Belem – have reduced confidence in the suitability of massive containerships for tougher ocean conditions.

And it could have been much worse: a bulk carrier, Ultra Galaxy, was caught in another of South Africa’s late-winter storms, capsized and broke-up off Cape Town.

. . .

One of the major contributing factors to the dangers around the Cape is ‘parametric rolling’, which occurs when the wavelength of the ocean’s surface matches the rolling motion of the vessel, gradually increasing the angle of each roll with every wave impact.

The stresses of heavy rolling can cause stacks of containers to buckle, damaging those lower in the stacks and causing those near the top to careen overboard.

There's more at the link.

This is adding to the difficulties caused by the Houthi blockade of the entrance to the Red Sea off Yemen, which has caused many shipping lines to divert their vessels via the Cape sea route.  Many of those ships were not designed for such conditions, being built specifically to cater to the requirements of the Suez Canal route, where weather is usually much less extreme.

I'm glad my seafaring days off the Cape are done.  There were some memorable moments . . .

Peter