Sunday morning music

 

I tend to be rather old-fashioned in my music tastes.  I'm unlikely to enjoy most songs written this century (with a few notable exceptions when composed and/or performed by older artists and groups, who were brought up to know what music was, as opposed to a noise!).  As for alleged rap "music", I refuse to dignify it with the label "music" at all.

However, there are always exceptions to every rule, and I came across one this week.  Shaboozey has been writing and performing songs since 2014, when he was only 19 years old.  His music "combines hip-hop, country, rock, and Americana", and he appears to carry off the blend with aplomb.

The track I listened to is called simply "Good News".  The lyrics may be found here, if you need them.  Give it a listen, and see what you think.

You'll find more of his music at his YouTube channel.  I plan to listen to more of it, to see how his undoubted talent develops.  This young man may have a serious musical future.

Peter

Happy (or horrible) Halloween, depending on your taste!

 

Peter

The wheels on the trucks... are falling off?

 

The CEO of Freightwaves warns that the "Largest capacity purge in history" is coming to the US commercial trucking market.

The freight industry is experiencing what experts describe as one of the most interesting times ever in freight—though unfortunately, not in a positive way for most participants. Motor carriers and freight brokers across the spectrum are feeling significant pain from weak freight volumes and a rapidly changing operating climate. What we’re witnessing appears to be the calm before a significant storm, with indicators pointing toward what could become the largest capacity washout in trucking history.

With the risk of the market eliminating 600,000 active drivers, the largest capacity purge in history may be coming, bringing COVID-like spot rates. The difference this time is that there won’t be a flood of immigrants created by Biden’s open borders, which offered an endless supply of truck drivers. The capacity relief valve for shippers and brokers is forever shut, meaning carriers will have to pay up in terms of higher pay and bonuses for truck drivers. Capacity will also be much harder to find.

The Great Capacity Purge is coming and there will be no relief valve for shippers or brokers.

. . .

When accounting for the overlap between drivers affected by non-domiciled CDL [Commercial Driver License] restrictions and ELP enforcement, plus undocumented drivers and restrictions on new hires, the total at-risk population could exceed 600,000 drivers—representing about 17% of active drivers, according to transport economist Noël Perry.

Carriers that rely upon immigrant labor or carriers that don’t qualify under the new rules will likely go out of business.

The combination of regulatory changes and prolonged freight recession conditions is creating an environment ripe for significant market disruption. Industry experts anticipate numerous bankruptcies among both carriers and brokers in the coming months as financial pressures mount.

There's more at the link.

In one sense, this is going to produce difficulties in distributing goods from manufacturer or importer, to wholesaler, to retailer.  Shipments will be more expensive due to less trucks (and commercial drivers) on the roads.  It may cause serious economic repercussions for many businesses.

On the other hand, US truck drivers who've long complained about illegal aliens and foreign drivers taking over the trucking business are already seeing improvements in their prospects.  I've seen several drivers post on social media that they're getting rates 20-30% higher than before from spot brokers, and they look forward to this trend continuing.  If, as the article states, up to half a million or more foreign and non-domiciled CDL holders are eliminated from the trucking market, it can only be good news for American workers wanting their jobs back - assuming they do want them back, and haven't moved on to work in other industries.

On the other hand, the decrease in such drivers might have repercussions for the US truck fleet as a whole.

The proliferation of non-domiciled CDLs has coincided with a dramatic increase in trucking capacity across the United States. Since the FMCSA permitted foreigners to obtain non-domiciled CDLs in March 2019, the industry has added more than 310,000 trucks to American roads.

It is not a stretch to believe that at least half of the new capacity has come from non-domiciled CDL holders. We know that 200,000 CDLs were issued, but it is unclear how many of these are still active and currently driving over the road.

Regardless, the industry has suffered greatly from the surge of new truck drivers and the sudden influx of capacity. These new participants have contributed significantly to market oversupply conditions, resulting in the longest freight recession in history ... As the DOT and FMCSA work to implement stricter controls on these licenses, capacity will certainly tighten. The question on the mind of every freight market executive: When will we feel it?

Again, more at the link.

It might soon be a good time to buy that used 18-wheeler you always wanted to convert into a gigantic travel trailer setup . . .

Peter

Good question!

 

Found in several places on social media:

Perhaps, if enough SNAP/EBT recipients lose their heads and riot over the suspension of those benefits, the taxpayers who fund them will also rise up in revolt and demand that their taxes be used for the good of the country, rather than the feeding of the feckless.

Peter

The tragic poison of extremism

 

I've been worried for years about how the extremes of American politics, both left- and right-wing, have been growing stronger, and eroding the center.  Mutual tolerance, openness to new ideas, and acceptance that others can be right and we can be wrong, have always been the hallmark of civilized discussion.  Trouble is, as our civilization crumbles under so many pressures, so too do those hallmarks.

Rod Dreher, a commenter whose insights I value greatly, has written two columns about anti-Semitism and its disastrous effect on right-wing politics.  They epitomize the dangers I'm seeing in the body politic as a whole right now, because the same comments can be applied to other extreme viewpoints as well.  They're long articles, but worth investing the time to read them in full.

In his first essay, Dreher examines the rise of the "groyper" influence.

Every one of the right-wing Jews to whom I spoke last night believe that Tucker Carlson is the most dangerous man in America to Jews, because in their view, he’s the most important mainstreamer of anti-Semitism on the Right. This was painful for me to hear, because I consider Tucker a friend, and though I have been disturbed by the anti-Jewish turn his rhetoric has taken, I had not been aware of how extensive his anti-Jewish commentary had been (I don’t regularly listen to his podcast), nor the effect his rhetoric has had on the outlook of American Jews.

. . .

As we left the Green Room headed to the stage, we saw on our phones that Tucker had hosted [Nick] Fuentes on his show. For me, this was a bright red line that I was hoping Tucker would not cross. But cross it he did ... Tucker asked nothing about Fuentes’s past statements praising Hitler, or any number of horrific things that have come out of that kid’s mouth, (e.g., “We will make Jews die in the holy war.). And then there’s ... blaming “organized Jewry” for threatening the existence of America, because they allegedly put the tribe over the common good.

. . .

The fact that Tucker Carlson, the most influential right-wing media figure in America, went from dismissing Fuentes early this year as a gay twerp in a Chicago basement, to having him on his show and blessing him with a soft interview, is a sign of the times. And not a good one. It was a two-man Unite The Right rally. Bad times ahead. The time to find your courage, fellow conservatives and Christians, and speak out against this stuff, is NOW.

Fuentes comes off on the Tucker broadcast as reasonable, despite his anti-Semitism, sexism, and deranged bigotries. If you are tempted to think of Fuentes that way, I advise you to look at this long compilation of the sick pedophilic stuff Fuentes and his followers have posted online. (There is no pedophilia imagery, don’t worry; it’s just screengrabs of texts and videos in which they celebrate pederasty and rape.)

. . .

As I’ve long said: Jews are canaries in the civilizational coal mine. As the gatekeepers and authorities are collapsing everywhere, we are going to see horrible things. I am thinking this morning about my warning from twenty years ago to the Left that if they accepted anti-white identity politics, they were going to legitimize pro-white, anti-everybody else identity politics among a younger generation that lacks the taboos. And it has happened. It is a howling absurdity that Fuentes, Candace, et al. claim to be Christians while promoting this stuff, but you should know that outside the US, the connection between Jew-hating and Christianity is historically well-established.

So, by the same logic, if the Right legitimizes Fuentes-style identitarianism, it is going to push normie liberals (what few there are left) further into radicalism. This is the Weimar dynamic: the feeble and discredited center could not hold against the growing strength of left-wing and right-wing radicals.

. . .

Many of us on the Right have wondered for years why decent liberals in authority kept their mouths shut about the left-wing anti-white bigots. And then the crazies took over the party. It’s happening to the Right now. I don’t know where this is going, but it’s nowhere good — and it’s getting there with accelerating speed.

A frightening thought: what if there are no gatekeepers at all anymore? What if anybody can say anything, and do not risk political exile or irrelevance?

There's more at the link.  Disturbing, but highly recommended reading.

In his second essay, Dreher looks at the similarities between the Weimar Republic in post-World-War-I Germany, and current political events in the USA, and puts the "groyper" phenomenon in that perspective.

I was talking today with a Christian I know who is a big player in conservative politics, and who is as appalled by it as I am. He tells me that what normie outsiders like me don’t know is that something like 30 to 40 percent of the Republican staff in Washington under the age of 30 are Groypers — that is, followers of Nick Fuentes.

Let that sink in.

. . .

The essential appeal of Trump, I learned, is not so much from his policy proposals (there weren’t many), but because he was a big fat finger in the face of a corrupt Republican establishment.

I didn’t vote [in 2016], because I couldn’t stomach Trump, I would never have voted for Hillary, and my vote didn’t matter in Louisiana anyway, as it was destined to go to Trump in the electoral college. But watching how the Left went into manic overdrive to destroy him and everything related to him changed me. The Kavanaugh hearings in 2018 broke me. I realized that as bad as Trump was on so much, he was the only thing standing between Us and Them. I voted for him in 2020, and though I wasn’t in the US in 2024, I openly supported him then. The Biden administration showed us what wokeness in power would and could do. I had no qualms at all about supporting Trump 2024, even though his personal character flaws are all too clear, still.

Now it seems that Fuentes is having the same kind of appeal to Zoomers as Trump did for Boomers and others a decade ago. Compared to Fuentes, though, Trump comes off as Marcus Aurelius. The Fuentes you see on the Tucker interview is not at all the Fuentes of his livestreams.

I simply cannot understand the logic behind treating Fuentes as a normal political actor — even if he has a relatively big following. He is a deeply bad man, with no redeeming qualities. If his mode of discourse, and beliefs, become part of the mainstream of conservatism, we’re done, and we will deserve it. To normalize Fuentes is to move the Overton Window where it must not go. It’s like saying, “Well, I personally disapprove of sniffing glue, and I think it’s bad for us, but if we are going to stop people from glue-sniffing, we need to listen to them to see why they take pleasure in sniffing glue.”

Look at what happened to the Left once they started giving respect and attention to the radical Left. We got the Great Awokening, in which it was considered perfectly legitimate to attack white people as evil because of the color of their skin, and to cancel people for simply dissenting from whatever new radical thing they demanded we all accept as truth. Now they’re about to elect an actual old-Zoomer Islamic race communist as mayor of the most important city in America. Zohran Mamdani is a million times more charismatic than Nick Fuentes, but I see them as part of the same trajectory of American politics.

. . .

I’ve used the term “Weimar America” from time to time, but now, it be gettin’ real.

What we mean when we talk about “Weimar Germany” is that time in Germany between the end of the First World War and Hitler’s accession to power in 1933, when Germany’s democracy wobbled under the pressure of economic collapse, and the falling-apart of all institutions, including parties of the center. Moral norms evaporated, especially around sexuality. Real power in the streets shifted to extremes of Left and Right.

. . .

This past spring, at a screening of the LNBL documentary in Nashville, a woman in the audience asked if I thought the danger of “soft totalitarianism” had passed because Trump was in office again, and the woke were on the defense.

No, I said, because all the conditions that [Hannah] Arendt identified as present in a society ready for totalitarianism are still with us. I don’t want to live in a right-wing society like that any more than I want to live in a left-wing one.

. . .

I have zero sympathy for people on the Left in all this. They chose not only to platform, but to bring into policymaking people every bit as radical as Nick Fuentes, only more educated, and better able to negotiate institutional culture. For at least twenty years, I have been publicly saying to liberals that if you embrace and advocate for identity politics of the Left, you are going to call up the very same thing from the Right one of these days.

. . .

Let me say to you, whether you are on the Left or the Right (and I do have some left-wing readers): if you don’t have a Bright Red Line for the kind of radicalism you are willing to tolerate in public, you had better lay one down, because you are going to be tested.

. . .

Weimar America. If, God forbid, there is a high-profile political assassination, or a severe economic downturn, we are going to be in very, very bad trouble. You all know I’m a blackpill kind of guy, but it seems that reality is catching up to my doomerism.

Again, more at the link.

I can't argue with Mr. Dreher's opinion of Mr. Fuentes.  If you're in any doubt about that, go read the thread that outlines Mr. Fuentes' personal morality (linked above).  If that doesn't persuade you, you may be beyond help.

I've been more and more worried by the number of bloggers and "opinionators" (for want of a better word) who are growing more and more anti-Semitic in their diatribes.  To blame any one group for the troubles of our society, of our body politic, is ludicrous.  After all, if any one group was so consistently focused on achieving world domination, surely it would have succeeded long ago?  I reject any attempt to assign responsibility and/or blame to a group.  It's always the individual who's at fault.  Sure, a group of equally guilty individuals may gather together to achieve their joint aims, but inevitably, the group falls apart sooner or later.  (Read any reputable history book for evidence of that.)

Applying that to our country today, I don't blame Democrats, or Republicans, or liberals, or conservatives, or Jews, or snake-handling Bible-belt evangelicals, for the state we're in.  Those groups are part of the problem, but they're made up of individuals who've been more or less persuaded that their particular group has the answers, and everybody else is part of the problem.  I've been personally on the scene of at least a dozen civil wars and inter-tribal conflicts, and in every case the individuals involved were not the problem.  The problem was always charismatic leaders who used emotion, religion (or tribal superstition) and outright violence to achieve their ends.  When the dying was over, it was never a question of "He did it!" or "She did it!" - it was always "They did it!", with "They" being whichever group could be most conveniently blamed.  That simply meant that another generation would be raised to hate that group or groups, and the conflict would start all over again in future.

Right now, we have groups who are more than willing to kill Leftists, and others who are more than willing to kill Rightists.  They don't care whether the people they kill are good or bad - simply by attaching a label to them, they are defined as "on our side" or "enemies".  With such attitudes becoming more and more prevalent, these United States cannot stand united for much longer.  To put it in a Biblical perspective, "a house divided against itself cannot stand".  We've already seen far too many examples of that in this country:  try "Bleeding Kansas" for a start.  There are many others.

Please, friends, stop and think about this.  It's all around us - and it may yet destroy us.

Peter

Sad news

 

Regular readers will remember my bleg a few weeks ago to help James and Tirzah Burns.  James was suffering from pancreatic and other problems, and was in a bad way.  I linked to a GiveSendGo fundraiser for them.

Sadly, James didn't make it.  His illness was too far advanced.  He went home last week under hospice care, and died yesterday afternoon.

Tirzah is left with their two young children, a son and a daughter, and now has to take care of all the arrangements for the funeral and a host of legal paperwork.  James was the family breadwinner, so there's also the question of how the family will earn a living in future.  My wife and I love and highly respect Tirzah, so we're sure she'll be working hard to find solutions, but to lose one's "other half" is . . . well, to call it "traumatic" is a massive understatement!  She's got a very big load on her shoulders for the next few months.

If you're able, please click over to their fundraiser and help the family with even a small amount.  Every little helps.

May James rest in God's peace, and may his sins be forgiven him.

Peter

The convoluted world of international arms deals

 

It's been reported that Turkey is to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft from Britain.

It is the largest fighter jet export deal in almost two decades and will support thousands of jobs across the UK for years to come, the government said.

. . .

The Eurofighter jets are jointly produced by Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain, and the deal was subject to approval from the other members of the consortium.

About 37% of each jet's production takes place in the UK, including final assembly at BAE Systems plants in Warton and Samlesbury in Lancashire.

The government said the deal would support 6,000 jobs at the two BAE plants, 1,100 in south-west England, including at the Rolls-Royce plant in Bristol, and 800 in Scotland.

It is the first new order of UK Typhoons since 2017.

Describing the agreement as the "biggest jets export deal in a generation", defence secretary John Healey said it would "pump billions of pounds into our economy and keep British Typhoon production lines turning long into the future".

There's more at the link.

What struck me at once was the minuscule size of the order.  Twenty fighter aircraft is a drop in the bucket compared to the Turkish Air Force's existing combat aircraft fleet, which includes well over 200 F-16's.  Furthermore, if the quoted figures are accurate, an ₤8 billion order averages out to a cost per plane of ₤400 million apiece - a ridiculously high amount, even if it includes future support and training expenditure.  To make matters even more confusing, Turkey is developing its own stealth fighter to replace its F-16's in due course.  The Typhoons are no better technology than the F-16 - so why buy them?  What's going on?

The answer is convoluted.

• Turkey has long been interested in using the Typhoon's power plant, the Eurojet EJ200 engine, in its Kaan fighters.  Based on a Rolls-Royce design, the latter company offered to help Turkey develop its own derivative of the EJ200 for the new fighter.  That agreement was derailed through political squabbles.  Initial prototypes of the Kaan will use US-sourced engines, and a locally-manufactured engine will power production models.  By buying Typhoons now, Turkey will gain access to European-standard engines and technology that can be used to train its pilots, engineers and technicians ahead of widespread introduction of the Kaan in due course;  and it can reverse-engineer Typhoon technology to improve its domestic equivalent products.  It will thus have access to both American and NATO-standard hardware and software.
• Turkey is trying to improve relations with other European nations, particularly given the geopolitical pressures caused by its involvement in Syria and other Middle Eastern nations.  By effectively "bribing" the British government with a massive arms order, it probably expects British diplomatic and economic pressure over Middle Eastern issues to decrease.
• The Typhoon is an aircraft type that has never seen combat in the Middle East.  Israel knows the capabilities of American combat aircraft very well, since it flies them in its own air force.  It may be that Turkey figures a different style of aircraft, with different electronics and systems, might give it an edge if it comes to a shooting conflict over Syria or elsewhere.

I get the feeling that Turkey is following Qatar's example.  Qatar is a tiny island nation in the Persian Gulf, but operates one of the most sophisticated air forces anywhere.  It flies Eurofighter Typhoons, US F-15's and French Rafale aircraft.  It's ridiculous to operate so many types of diverse aircraft in relatively small numbers, but that's not the point.  By spending tens of billions of dollars on such technology, Qatar is effectively buying influence in the nations that sell them.  They'll be less likely (Qatar hopes) to put pressure on that nation to support Middle Eastern initiatives it doesn't like, and less likely to approve Israeli action against Qatar for its ongoing support of Middle Eastern terrorist movements like Hamas and Hezbollah.  Instead of asking "What's the right thing to do?", diplomats from supplier countries will be forced to ask "What will it cost us in terms of sales and support of defense technology if we allow this or don't allow that?"  It's yet another example of "follow the money".

Effectively, Turkey is trying to lock the UK into the same kind of deal.  "We'll pay you well above the odds for a few fighters, provided you shut up about sensitive issues in the Middle East that affect us."  Furthermore, the current British government has made such a flaming mess of running the country that it's desperate for funds from anywhere, so it'll be more than willing to be "bribed" like this.

There's a distinctly distasteful odor about this arms deal . . .

Peter

Is the US intelligence apparatus deliberately playing us false?

 

From Larry Lambert over at Virtual Mirage:

(h/t Sam Fadis) Steve Witkoff called out CIA for providing him and Jared Kushner with completely faulty intelligence regarding Hamas and the negotiations to end the fighting in Gaza. And he did it on air on 60 Minutes.

The President himself is directly involved. Witkoff and Kushner are the President’s personal envoys. For CIA to get the intel picture completely wrong is a monumental failure and leads immediately to the next, and most important question: Why? Why was CIA so wide of the mark with its analysis? Two possibilities present themselves immediately. Either CIA’s intelligence was just that bad, or people in CIA and likely the broader Intelligence Community (IC) were deliberately feeding the President’s top men bad intel.

Today’s CIA quite frankly has little or no insight into the inner workings of groups like Hamas. That would require risk. That would require moxie. That would require leaving Northern Virginia and talking to foreigners. If you don’t want to risk it, you can take whatever intel the Israelis pass you on the subject and base your analysis on that. If the Israelis are telling the truth and have solid sources, you may be OK temporarily. If the Israelis, the guys who did not see a Hamas offensive building on the other side of a wall a couple of years ago, have bad intel, then we do too. Most alarming of all, of course, if the Israelis decide to lie to us for political reasons, we will not know it. We will be led around by the nose and steered in the wrong direction.

The Intelligence Community (in all its manifestations) has only one job. One. Provide truth to power. Clandestine activity (Covert Action) must stem from that, as does everything else. If you can’t provide the truth to power, you’re part of the problem, not part of the solution.

People within the IC are deliberately feeding the President and his key people bad intelligence. And, just as bad, they are refusing to pass on certain information to the policy makers in this administration. There remain people within the IC who oppose this President and his appointees and are using intelligence as a weapon to frustrate President Trump’s political objectives. They want him to fail. They don’t care about the consequences for American national security. They want to inflict political damage because they are laser-focused on putting a Democrat in the White House in 2028 who will guarantee the continued existence of the Deep State and prevent the American people from regaining control over the vast federal bureaucracy.

Since Trump sat down in the White House for the second time, there has been no real reorganization. No meaningful change of any kind has actually occurred. Director Ratcliffe sits atop an organization that remains structured essentially as John Brennan wanted and run by people who made rank and climbed the ladder under either Brennan or his surrogate, Gina Haspel. All of the people who thought it was appropriate to designate “crying spaces” where employees could retreat to compose themselves when Trump won in 2016 are still there. All the folks who looked the other way when the attack on the CIA base in Benghazi was blamed on a peaceful demonstration that got out of hand are still there. All the individuals who sat and watched while a slow-motion coup against Donald Trump went on year after year are still there, just in much more senior positions now.

I can only hope that President Trump and his leadership team are fully aware of all this (which I assume they are), and are doing something about it (of which I'm not so sure).  One can't bring in complete outsiders to assume all intelligence agency leading positions without discarding literally generations worth of experience and insight.  Outsiders simply can't have that depth of insight.  However, if the existing leadership isn't using or providing that depth of insight, can we afford to keep them in place?

One has questions . . .

Peter