Oh, this is tasty stuff . . .
Conservative Tree House is, admittedly, right-wing in orientation; but its analysis of Hillary Clinton's purported 'jump' in the opinion polls is pretty darned accurate as far as I can see (and I've got three years of statistics at under- and post-graduate level under my belt).
You have probably seen the latest example of the media claiming a released presidential poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal as an example of Hillary Clinton expanding to an 11 point lead in the weekend following the “controversial” leaked tape of Donald Trump.
The claim is complete and utter nonsense. Here’s the proof.
. . .
Transparently the poll is manipulated with: a) a small sample (500); and b) the following ideological make-up:
- Republican and Republican leaners 36%
- Democrat and Democrat leaners 43%
. . .
- Independents 12%
However, the polling sample is the least of the issues for this deconstruction.
Arguing about the construct or methodology of the poll is typically what most people do when they are refuting a media poll. That aspect alone is not the big story.
Look at the polling organization ... Do you see: Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies?
. . .
Mr. Geoff Garin, the President of Hart Research and Associates”, is currently working as “a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton’s election“. Gee, I wonder why the media never tells us that part?
. . .
Wait, we’re not even close to finished. It gets better.
Let’s take a look at the recent financial connection between, Geoff Garin, Hart Research Associates and Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC. For that information we turn to FEC filings. What do they indicate?
. . .
- $220,500.00 in the month of September alone paid by Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC to Hart Research Associates.
- The President of Hart Research Associates, Geoff Garin, is working for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
- NBC (S Burke) and The WSJ (Murdoch) contact Geoff Garin (Hart Research Associates) for the post-debate poll data they will use on the day following the debate.
Do you see now how “media polling” works, and why we advise to ignore it?
- Hart Research Associates provides a small national poll sample (500) result, with skewed party internals, showing Hillary Clinton +11 points.
There's more at the link, complete with screen captures and other evidence.
This is precisely why I distrust the opinion polls currently showing Hillary Clinton far in the lead in the presidential race. I simply don't believe them. If they were correct, Donald Trump would not be attracting tens of thousands of people to attend his rallies, while Hillary Clinton attracts dozens or scores. I think the race is far narrower and closer than the polls are showing, and I think Donald Trump has a realistic chance of winning this election.
If you expect me to believe differently, show me solid, verifiable evidence that I can analyze and confirm for myself, proving that the opinion polls are correct. On the basis of the evidence above, I think those pushing the current polls are lying in their teeth.
Peter
17 comments:
Yep, skewing polls is old news, so to speak... But we knew that already!
There really is only one poll that matters.
They can skew to make it look like your preferred option is so far ahead that you can be complacent, or so far behind that you rage quit. but either way, it rarely matters except in very tight races (like every presidential race since Clinton--the other one).
Polls like that one are yet another tool used to manipulate the race - I am also not surprised, and neither are the many Trump supporters who already distruct whatever the media says.
As far as enthusiasm, I live in heavily Democratic, working class, part of a swing state - I have lost track of the number of Trump or Trump/ Pence signs I have seen; I saw my first Hilary sign last week and have now seen a grand total of 3 Hilary or Hilary/ Kaine signs.
I agree with your comments on enthusiasm and have talked to multiple liberals who either aren't voting or are reluctantly voting for Hilary; reluctance is unlikely to win over fired up.
if she already has the mechanism in place to steal the election thru voter fraud this corruption of the polls is a necessity to sell the fraud.
I really want to believe arguments like this, but I'm reminded of arguments about the Bradley effect and Romney voters, and how the polls understated Romney's support, and we ended up with BO.
I'm also worried about this fraud being in place to support the stolen election, which is why Trump needs to exceed the margin of fraud.
all part of the plan. The vote is flat out fixed. They have tubs with thousands of "absentee ballots" that are already marked for Hilary. they are pre positioned in areas she will be weak in. The polls will allow them to say they showed her ahead so no one will question the crooked vote.
Have food for 90 days minimum and have thousands of rounds for your primary rifle. It will not be enough but you will be doing something.
We are completely and totally screwed on this one.
She is a crook. Democrats are crooks. You think they will leave anything to chance? they are lawyers. The best and the brightest.
They have been cooking this up for decades.
There used to be an octopus that could predict the World Cup.
=T.W.=
Have you factored in the number of dead folks registering, and the high(likely) incidence of electronic vote tampering the left has been perfecting? They will be HUGE, to coin a term...
The margin of victory is one thing.
The margin of fraud is another.
We're SO screwed.
What Jonathan and the first anonymous said. It's prepping the field to say "hey, it's just like the polls said!" so the media and their Dem handlers can brand people objecting as tinfoil-hat wearing jokers.
Fraud in NY is assumed, but the state isn't close, so even w/o fraud it still goes Clinton. No change in outcome. It's the swing states which are arguable that need really close poll watching and count watching, with cameras rolling and multiple witnesses. Volunteer to be a poll watcher. Sign up to watch or help with the count. Keep an eye on everything.
In WA where I live it is ALL mail-in balloting, because it supposedly saves money. Maybe so, maybe not. But combine with "motor-voter," it also gives me ZERO confidence in the authenticity of the outcome.
The bifactional ruling party and their corporate globalist masters must be absolutely terrified of Trump. They're throwing everything they can at him with the exception of kinetic options. They've dropped all bs pretenses of neutrality or supposed party affiliation. He's got the democrat party, the republican establishment,the foreign invaders and their enablers, the entire media from news to Hollywood to the globalist and corporate oligarchy all against him. He's got the nascent nationalists, the republican party base and disaffected blue collar democrats on his side and that's about it. Add to that the rampant voter fraud and it's going to be a miracle out of scripture if he manages to win. We'd better pray he does or these lunatic war mongers are going to start a war with Russia and who knows where that'll end.
I think there will be voter fraud in this election, note how media is already claiming that Russian hackers (any proof of that yet - I've never seen any) are attempting to hack the American election system. Probably use that as an excuse to pull shenanigans, then blame the Russian Bear for that.
I give Trump credit, mainstream media is pulling out all the stops in looking for ways to hurt him, but he isn't backing down. The GOP have stopped trying to help him, afraid they will lose their own elections for supporting him.
One poll that has not been heard from is Zogby in Detroit. They have been very accurate before.
The last poll for governor of KY was off by 13% points from the actual results in the 2015 election. IMHO some of the results are posted to dissuade their opponents from showing up on election day.
HRC has such a big lead why bother you deplorable little people.
Gerry
Yes, as they pull large-scale vote fraud, if Trump wins anyway, there will be a dozen or more states involved in 2000 Florida-like recounts until they get a count they like because "Russians hacked our systems." I've some doubts about Russians doing it. They almost certainly have the skills to leave virtually no traces of their intrusion, so either they're deliberately sending a message or they're being framed.
i worry that the electoral college will back hillary.
also rumor has it that sanders' loss to her was rigged.
if that can be rigged so can the november election.
Poll on City-Data (a very broad forum with millions of users) today was at (IIRC) 56% Trump, 38% Clinton, 2% undecided, balance various 3rd party candidates.
Another poll asked what horrible act would turn you off Trump? (list of options from lying to murder) and over 40% said "Nothing".
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