I'm getting a very nasty feeling at the back of my neck about current developments.
- The Russian ambassador to Turkey is murdered, apparently by a fanatical Muslim extremist who'd concealed his conversion and continued to function as a Turkish security policeman. Meanwhile, our own president is conspicuous by his silence and seeming lack of concern about the incident. I'm sure Russia got the message loud and clear: he doesn't care.
- A senior Russian source alleges that NATO may be behind the assassination. That would make no sense at all, but then, nothing in this situation can be described as logical or rational.
- ISIS, driven out of Aleppo by a combined Syrian/Russian offensive, promptly regroups and retakes Palmyra. It's like water. When it's squeezed out of one place, it flows into another. It's very hard to 'kill' a group like that.
- Iran threatens to destroy Israel (again), and Israel responds bluntly. Israel knows it has a more supportive US president taking office next month, and has just taken delivery of its first stealth strike aircraft. I think its previous reluctance to act may be conspicuous by its absence before long.
- Rising populist forces in Europe are speaking out louder than ever against Muslim immigration. Expect them to win electoral victories next year. That will inevitably lead to conflict as Muslim immigrants 'push back'. The level of conflict may approach civil war in some areas where militants have taken control, such as some of Paris' banlieue's.
The assassination in Turkey appears to have eerie parallels to another in Sarajevo, in June, 1914. Will this one have similarly disastrous consequences? One sincerely hopes and prays not . . . but instability and uncertainty are the hallmarks of the current situation. Nobody knows.
Peter
11 comments:
First thing that popped into my head when the news was announced was "Sarajevo, 1914".
ISIS wasn't in Aleppo -- it was a mishmash of the rebel groups supported by the Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the West.
Yep, echos of history by people who don't read history... sigh
Another russian politico was killed only a few hours later.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-diplomat-found-dead-gunshot-9488602
Not much comparison to 1914, at first glance, but interesting timing.
The NATO aspect is important, and does make sense from a Russian POV. They didn't take the NATO bait in Ukraine, they're winning in Syria, and rebuilding relations with Turkey. What better way to create the war the neocons/dems want than fighting between Russia and Turkey, while NATO can still join a conflict? They don't need to fight a massive land war, just a limited engagement that they can blame the Russians for, sink the fleet in the Med, and pound Syria flat.
Then Qatar can build its pipeline again.
These guys still think Russia is a limited player, and won't fight elsewhere.
I was thinking Andrei Karlov could be the next Earnst vom Rath.
It'll be interesting to see how planned out in advance the Russian reaction appears.
Next Christmas in Constantinople Mr. Putin! Make it happen.
Hopefully January 21st President Trump announces that the US is withdrawing from NATO as its intended purpose and function hasn't existed for decades now and it no longer serves US interests or even European ones. The Germans and the rest of Europe are perfectly capable of fielding an army sufficient to keep the Russians out of Berlin and Brussels without American blood and treasure. The current chaos in the middle east is a direct result of US and NATO meddling and ample reason to reverse the current course and abolish Cold War relic diplomacy and entangling alliances.
NATO is not competent enough to do Assassination. Plus the members are mostly afraid of their own shadow.
Russia loves to blame nato for everything, it helps keep Putin in power.
I expect Russia to retaliate, as they did long ago in Lebanon. 20+ years ago.
The hit in Russia puzzles me.
I agree to disagree on Ukraine. Soros I can buy. NATO, no. Us - funding democracy training yes. Again, eu and us are currently afraid of their own shadows and not competent enough.
Russia was looking for a magnificent little war, and got most of what they want. Same pattern as Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia, etc. unfortunately they did not expect resistance as much as they got after Crimea. Russian agitprop is alive and better than the Cold War stuff.
Another anon
Iran, Russia, and Assad don't have enough forces to dominate all of Syria. Their focus is on the so called moderate anti Assad forces.
Syria is a huge mess and an explosion waiting to happen. The only two forces that really seem to care about Isis are the us and Kurds. They are a useful bogeyman for Assad, Russians, and Iranians.
And with Turkey invading / occupying part of Syria, wow.
And Russian Sam 400 now in place in Syria, they control the airspace.
And the Turks are fighting the Kurds. And Turkey is doing an internal night of long lives for a strong Sunni Islamic government.
And Turkey can turn on and off the refugee flow at will.
And the Turkish economy is not doing well.
I wish Syria would just get split into 3 parts. Solve a lot of issues.
I have no idea what Trump will do. Obama was just words, while hundreds of thousands died. Poor country.
Another anon 2/2
It is easier to remember history when one has lived it.
Sometimes I like being old, because you know when it is time to get out the popcorn.
From Wiki:
Six years later, in October 1985, Alpha Group was dispatched to war-torn Beirut, Lebanon. The Kremlin was informed of the kidnapping of four Soviet diplomats by the militant group, the Islamic Liberation Organization (a radical offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood). It was believed that this was retaliation for the Soviet support of Syrian involvement in the Lebanese Civil War.[19] However, by the time Alpha arrived, one of the hostages had already been killed. Through a network of supporting KGB operatives, members of the task-force identified each of the perpetrators involved in the crisis, and once identified, began to take the relatives of these militants as hostages. Following the standard Soviet policy of no negotiations with terrorists, one of the hostages taken by Alpha Group had his testicles removed and sent to the militants before being killed. The warning was clear: more would follow unless the remaining hostages were released immediately.[20] The show of force worked, and for a period of 20 years no Soviet or Russian officials were taken captive, until the 2006 abduction and murder of four Russian embassy staff in Iraq. However, the veracity of this story has been brought into question. Another version says that the release of the Soviet hostages was the result of extensive diplomatic negotiations with the spiritual leader of Hezbollah, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, who appealed to King Hussein of Jordan, and the leaders of Libya and Iran, to use their influence on the kidnappers.[21]
I see it more as 1938. Kristallnacht was kicked off by the assassination of a Nazi diplomat in Paris. I'm watching to see if Putin uses this as an excuse to tighten the screws just a bit more on Muslims under his control.
President Obama erred when he said that there would be consequences publicly. Now, anything that happens to Russia will be easily pointed at as an American plot, and it will be believed by their citizens.
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