Looking at the real world out there

 

Yesterday I linked to Phil's readers' comments about the current situation in their various parts of the country, and cited several of their comments.  If you missed that blog post, you might like to read it before continuing with this one.

I think it's very important to keep up-to-date with what's actually happening on the ground in our country.  The USA is big enough that one region may be experiencing problems that might not yet have reached others;  but we're all interconnected, so sooner or later those problems will make themselves felt in our areas too.

For example, last week it was announced that the diesel supply in the USA is down to no more than 25 days.  The shortage is particularly apparent in the southeastern states, especially on the Atlantic coast.  For those living there, this should be a wake-up call to make sure their food reserves are well filled, because every - literally, every - food delivery to distribution centers and supermarkets and restaurants relies at some point on diesel-powered transport.  The food may be available, but if it can't be shipped to where you and I can buy it, we're S.O.L.  Those living in other regions may be tempted to relax and say, "Well, the shortage isn't as bad here, so we'll be OK" - but they won't be OK, because their "excess" supply is sure and certain to be tapped to send more diesel to areas where the need is greater.  This sort of problem can spread with alarming speed.

There's also the fact that diesel fuel comes from the same distillate stream as home heating oil (here's looking at you, north-eastern USA!), jet fuel, farm diesel and other essential fuels.  If road diesel is in short supply, all of them will be short, too.  If refineries are forced to reconfigure their equipment to produce more diesel and associated fuels, the production of other fuels - for example, automotive gasoline or lubricating oil - must necessarily be reduced to accommodate that need;  and that may have a knock-on effect when it comes to filling our tanks at the gas station every week.  We live in an interconnected world, where a problem in one area can very easily become a problem in another before we have time to think about it.

Let's look at the availability of food.  In the past we've discussed the current drought, and how farmers and ranchers are being forced to reduce their herds due to the lack of fodder and grazing.  There doesn't appear to be much relief in sight for the next year or so, what with a third consecutive year of La Niña being forecast, which will produce ongoing drought in many of this country's most productive farming regions.  It's been predicted that meat may become so scarce (once herds have been depleted) that a pound of ground beef may fetch as much as $50 next year - more than ten times its present level (at least where I live).  Vegetable crops are also way down from normal levels.  Remember that the vegetables we've been eating this past year mostly come from 2021's crops, which were canned and/or frozen after being harvested.  The 2022 harvest is much smaller, so there'll be less to preserve and put on the shelves next year.  We're going to feel that pinch in higher prices in 2023 - while hoping for a better harvest to provide food in 2024.  La Niña may make that a pipe dream.

(EDITED TO ADD:  See this news report for more on the coming meat shortage.)

A couple of years ago I noted that official government figures about inflation were ridiculous, and offered this rule of thumb:

To know the true rate of consumer inflation in the USA, take the official rate declared by the government and multiply it by 3½.  The result will be much closer to reality.

My wife and I have consistently found, over the past year or more, that our personal rate of inflation (i.e. the cost increases in the products we buy and consume, as opposed to general products that we don't buy or need) is 25%-35%.  That tends to fit in well with that guideline.  If you look at the inflation being experienced by Phil's readers, as mentioned in some of their comments ("Most food items are 30 to 40% higher than this time last year", "canned veggies are double what they were last year", "Currently running my own little CPI on groceries, current annual rate of 57%", "The little food we purchase is up 30~45%", etc.), food inflation overall in many parts of the country now appears to be exceeding that guideline.  There were those who thought I was being unduly pessimistic when I offered that multiplier almost two years ago.  Now?  I think I was being optimistic, at least as far as food costs are concerned.

Let's face it.  Most of us simply can't afford to stock up on an extra year's worth of food and essentials.  We don't have the spare cash, and we don't have enough storage space for it (let alone being able to handle the hazards involved in storing materials such as fuel or propane).  However, we can't afford not to prepare for the sort of dangers that are bearing down on us.  Even if it's in a small way, we should be striving to build up a month or two's reserves of essential foodstuffs, so that if we get laid off work, or a system outage makes credit cards temporarily unusable, or we find that meat prices suddenly double or triple in a month, we can get by until things improve.

In that light, look at what's absolutely essential for you, and what you can do without.  It's also a good idea to look at replacements.  For example, if no meat is available or affordable, rice and beans are (currently) cheap and form a complete protein when eaten together.  Grains such as quinoa and amaranth may seem fancy and exotic, but they're also protein-rich, and very easy to prepare (almost as easy as rice - they just take a bit longer to cook).  What's more, all these foods can be easily preserved for years (I use mylar bags with oxygen absorbers and a heat sealer).  If we have to stretch a soup or stew to feed more people, adding some of those grains (or oatmeal) to the pot will bulk it out, and the grains will absorb the flavor of the main dish, making them just as appetizing.  For that matter, we can cook such grains in bouillon, broth or stock of some kind, to provide a meat flavor even if there's no meat in our meal that day.

When it comes to clothing, get used to swapping T-shirts or similar clothes with family and friends.  Go to thrift stores such as Goodwill to look for clothes, rather than buying new.  If your kids need school uniforms or similar wear, find out whether their school offers any sort of swap facility (many do).  Do the same with services and skills you may have that others need.  Mow someone's lawn in exchange for them teaching you how to change the oil in your vehicle's engine.  Do someone's laundry in exchange for them babysitting for you.  There are all sorts of possibilities if cash is short.

Our ancestors knew how to do this as a matter of routine.  Remember the Depression-era motto?  "Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without."  That was my parents' watchword during the Great Depression.  I guess we're all going to hear it - and apply it - more often in the years ahead.

Peter