"Air forces have ceased to be dominant..."

 

"...when it comes to influencing the war on the ground".  That's the conclusion of Strategy Page when it comes to modern drone warfare.  The lengthy article draws other inferences that may surprise you.  Here's an excerpt.

Ukrainians had the advantage of material and intellectual support from NATO countries. Ukraine was the first to develop and use small, innovative drone designs. These often came from civilians, who were seeking to assist friends of family members in the army. Building drones in homes or garages became a major source of drones for Ukrainian troops.

Russia adapted to their disadvantage in drone development by concentrating on electronic jammers, as well as building a lot of drones, often copying successful Ukrainian drones. By rapidly upgrading their jammer technology, Russians can disrupt a lot of new Ukrainian drone tech for a while. This disruption is becoming more important for the Russians because Ukraine has developed several generations of long range that are increasingly reaching their targets deep a thousand or more kilometers inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack. These targets include refineries and fuel storage sites as well as weapons development, manufacturing, and storage facilities. In 2023 these attacks destroyed about fifteen percent of Russian refining capacity, reducing, for months, the amount of vehicle fuel available for commercial and military users.

Air bases and ballistic missile storage or launch sites are also under attack. Targets as distant as the Russian Northern Fleet bases around Murmansk are under attack. This has caused a shortage of anti-aircraft systems that can intercept some or all of the drones depending on how many drones and air defense systems are involved.

To deal with this Ukraine has increased production of drones considerably and the objective for 2024 is two million new drones built, mostly armed ones. Halfway through 2024, the production goal is being met. These numbers are comparable to artillery ammunition production, which for Russia is estimated to be three million rounds a year. Hundreds of armed drones used in single attacks are seen as more effective than conventional tube artillery, which is now seen as a poor substitute for drones. Factories for manufacturing drones are often established in underground facilities to avoid Russian missile attacks. Nearly all the components needed for drone production are available commercially and can be purchased from European or American suppliers and imported. Custom components are manufactured locally in well protected installations. Drone quality and quantity are a Ukrainian advantage they do not want to lose.

Russia is also increasing drone production, in part because they lost their few A-50 surveillance aircraft in 2023 and since then depended on drones for surveillance. Another Russian disadvantage is their reliance on larger and more expensive surveillance and attack drones. The Russians have been quick to adapt and copy Ukrainian drone designs whenever they obtain a new one that had crash landed intact. Often all it takes is a description of a new Ukrainian drone. Russian drone manufacturers have become adept at copying Ukrainian drone designs based on minimal information. Because of this both Ukrainian and Russian troops face the same drone threat.

There's more at the link.

I wonder how an Air Force of the future will look.  Is there any reason why troops on the ground can't carry their own integrated drone support with them, launching their own UAV's to reconnoiter ground ahead, deal with enemy positions and troops, and open a way to advance?  Is an Air Force still needed to do that job?  How will its composition change to reflect that?  What about army air support?  For example, can helicopter casualty evacuation or gunship support continue in their present form?  Can an outpost be resupplied and supported by cargo drones, or will they become nothing more than targets for attack drones designed to keep their supplies from reaching the place where they're needed?

Right now everything's up in the air (literally and figuratively).  How the "rush to drones" will work itself out in the long term can't be foreseen at present.  I suspect that the advent of battlefield energy weapons - laser beams and the like, which can be fired hundreds of times at light speed without needing ammunition resupply - may neutralize drones very effectively;  but they can also be used as anti-personnel and anti-vehicle weapons, which will open even more cans of worms.

As I've said before, I'm glad my days in uniform are over.  Ground troops are going to be living in an extremely unhealthy environment, technologically speaking . . .

Peter