Monday, September 16, 2024

"Air forces have ceased to be dominant..."

 

"...when it comes to influencing the war on the ground".  That's the conclusion of Strategy Page when it comes to modern drone warfare.  The lengthy article draws other inferences that may surprise you.  Here's an excerpt.


Ukrainians had the advantage of material and intellectual support from NATO countries. Ukraine was the first to develop and use small, innovative drone designs. These often came from civilians, who were seeking to assist friends of family members in the army. Building drones in homes or garages became a major source of drones for Ukrainian troops.

Russia adapted to their disadvantage in drone development by concentrating on electronic jammers, as well as building a lot of drones, often copying successful Ukrainian drones. By rapidly upgrading their jammer technology, Russians can disrupt a lot of new Ukrainian drone tech for a while. This disruption is becoming more important for the Russians because Ukraine has developed several generations of long range that are increasingly reaching their targets deep a thousand or more kilometers inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack. These targets include refineries and fuel storage sites as well as weapons development, manufacturing, and storage facilities. In 2023 these attacks destroyed about fifteen percent of Russian refining capacity, reducing, for months, the amount of vehicle fuel available for commercial and military users.

Air bases and ballistic missile storage or launch sites are also under attack. Targets as distant as the Russian Northern Fleet bases around Murmansk are under attack. This has caused a shortage of anti-aircraft systems that can intercept some or all of the drones depending on how many drones and air defense systems are involved.

To deal with this Ukraine has increased production of drones considerably and the objective for 2024 is two million new drones built, mostly armed ones. Halfway through 2024, the production goal is being met. These numbers are comparable to artillery ammunition production, which for Russia is estimated to be three million rounds a year. Hundreds of armed drones used in single attacks are seen as more effective than conventional tube artillery, which is now seen as a poor substitute for drones. Factories for manufacturing drones are often established in underground facilities to avoid Russian missile attacks. Nearly all the components needed for drone production are available commercially and can be purchased from European or American suppliers and imported. Custom components are manufactured locally in well protected installations. Drone quality and quantity are a Ukrainian advantage they do not want to lose.

Russia is also increasing drone production, in part because they lost their few A-50 surveillance aircraft in 2023 and since then depended on drones for surveillance. Another Russian disadvantage is their reliance on larger and more expensive surveillance and attack drones. The Russians have been quick to adapt and copy Ukrainian drone designs whenever they obtain a new one that had crash landed intact. Often all it takes is a description of a new Ukrainian drone. Russian drone manufacturers have become adept at copying Ukrainian drone designs based on minimal information. Because of this both Ukrainian and Russian troops face the same drone threat.


There's more at the link.

I wonder how an Air Force of the future will look.  Is there any reason why troops on the ground can't carry their own integrated drone support with them, launching their own UAV's to reconnoiter ground ahead, deal with enemy positions and troops, and open a way to advance?  Is an Air Force still needed to do that job?  How will its composition change to reflect that?  What about army air support?  For example, can helicopter casualty evacuation or gunship support continue in their present form?  Can an outpost be resupplied and supported by cargo drones, or will they become nothing more than targets for attack drones designed to keep their supplies from reaching the place where they're needed?

Right now everything's up in the air (literally and figuratively).  How the "rush to drones" will work itself out in the long term can't be foreseen at present.  I suspect that the advent of battlefield energy weapons - laser beams and the like, which can be fired hundreds of times at light speed without needing ammunition resupply - may neutralize drones very effectively;  but they can also be used as anti-personnel and anti-vehicle weapons, which will open even more cans of worms.

As I've said before, I'm glad my days in uniform are over.  Ground troops are going to be living in an extremely unhealthy environment, technologically speaking . . .

Peter


15 comments:

M said...

Energy weapons do need ammunition, or rather fuel.
They get their energy generally (for weapons-level lasers) from the combustion of some quite nasty substances. Or batteries or capacitors, both of which need recharging.
Infantry air support? For short range recon, they could have drones, but the longer the range and the faster it goes, the more fuel the drone needs. At a certain point, it's not portable anymore.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if anyone has yet thought to convert bombers to drop a massive amount of autonomous drones into an area. That could significantly increase the effective range of drones. Not to mention the surprise factor of suddenly seeing the sky above filled with a large number of drones.

Unknown said...

Problems:
* man portable drones aren't going to carry much in the way of payload.
* all drones are going to be subject to jamming
* drones are more expensive than dumb bombs/artillery/mortar shells (and probably more expensive than well designed smart ones)
* until energy weapons get a LOT more powerful, you are either dropping bombs, or you have to deal with recoil

now, one possible work-around for the jamming problem is to make them autonomous, not remote controlled. But at that point, mistakes will happen and they will target your own forces (especially in a fight like this where both sides are using the same equipment)

note that a lot of the 'drones' that Ukraine has been using are not small quadcopter type drones, they are more along the lines of a Cessna light aircraft fitted with control electronics and an explosive payload.

I know that tests that the US has done with tracking/intercepting such aircraft have shown it to be significantly harder to deal with them with modern fighters than you would think due to the extreme difference in speed (and you really don't want to be trading multi-million dollar missiles for drones that cost a few tens of thousands of dollars)

David Lang

RHT447 said...

IIRC, I recently read that the Russians are starting to deploy wire-guided (fiber Optic cable) drones, range about 1.5 km. Obviously the commo link cannot be jammed.

Rick T said...

A cargo plane makes more sense to me. You need high capacity for both mass and volume to get the payload to the area but accuracy is the drone's problem once it starts flying. I recall a number of CGI videos showing cargo planes with dispenser racks dropping various kinds of drones.

bobby said...

One has to wonder if our presidential candidates have drone protection.

boron said...

It has been said that the Ukraine has been receiving info/direction from US and Euro satellites; is there any truth to this?

Old NFO said...

Just one more 'step' in the technology game... each step requires a 'counter' and the winner will be the one that can either advance the steps faster than the counters or vice versa.

BGnad said...

I'm expecting that when someone gets a good energy weapon with auto targeting worked out, then there will no longer be any airborne warfare. Like in David Drake's "Hammer's Slammers" or the Posleen wars of John Ringo. Anything cresting the horizon will be destroyed.

lynn said...

"Quantity has a quality all of its own" (Joseph Stalin).

Unknown said...

fiber optic cable to control drones will avoid jamming, but the fiber is not cheap, and a spool 1.5Km long is not small.
The fiber is also single-use, you don't recover it when the drone returns. This isn't a problem for single-use attack munitions (such as anti-tank missiles) but is a problem for a drone

David Lang

Will said...

But, it can be severed. A laser beam with enough power can destroy an optic fibre by hitting it externally. Those very small diameter fibers won't take much energy hitting them. Won't be visible light being used, either. In addition, the bleed into the fibre as the beam hits may do some damage at either end.

Anonymous said...

US infantry already use drones for surveillance and reconnaissance. The question now is really armed drones as a supporting weapons element, perhaps in place of complement to the close combat missile teams currently fielding javelin rockets...

Trumpetet said...

I was thinking more about energy For making weapons. This gives Russia strong justification for further de-energization of Ukraine. Which will drive population, government , economic and military collapse.
Oh, and a huge expensive refuge population just when Europe is getting sick of refugees.

Quentin said...

Ground troops have always lived in an extremely unhealthy environment.