The cartels versus the Mexican and U.S. governments - a state of war

 

Two recent articles have highlighted the fact that the security situation on the US-Mexico border amounts to nothing less than a de facto state of war.

Real Clear Wire describes it as "The Invasion Equation".

Rape trees, river floaters, skeletal remains, and fentanyl candy. The new vernacular of illegal immigration is an indictment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) loss of operational control along the U.S.-Southern border. A consequence of this is the transformation of cartel insurgencies into well-formed armies that recruit and employ uniformed soldiers, have supporting intelligence operations, and control terrain. The challenge now confronting state and federal law enforcement is no longer how to deter an insurgency; it’s how to defeat an army.

Modern armies are resourced by nation-states who provide moral leadership in times of war. But the accountable governments of nation-states can falter and fail. Mexico in particular has a compromised central government that is not protecting its own homeland from subversive actors. When this happens, a conglomerate of paid professionals, mercenaries, conscripts, and criminals fills the void to either protect or exploit the resources of a community. It was true within the first communities of Mesopotamia, and it is happening now in communities across Mexico. This is how armies begin. A state is incapable of securing its communities, accountable governments lose legitimacy, and subversive actors start vying for control of terrain to exploit resources.  

The hallmark of any effective army is its ability to control terrain. The cartel armies have done that by co-opting the gangs of the U.S. and operate the world’s largest crime syndicate complete with narco distribution hubs throughout the U.S.. In Mexico they cordon cities and run roadblocks to collect information and extort residents. To date, as much as 20 percent of Mexico has come under control of the cartels as previously reported by CIA analysts. Their center of gravity is the illicit drug and human trafficking revenues from which they derive their strength. The illegal aliens that they infiltrate, the drugs that they smuggle, and the terrorist that they give safe passage each infiltrate the Southern border under their control and further empower their control of terrain.

There's more at the link.

Austin Bay claims bluntly that "Mexican Crime Cartels Wage Narcotic and Demographic War on USA".

In early 2009 sensationalists claimed that Mexico was a failed state. Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa rebutted the accusation, pointing out the 2009 Mexican federal government was quite strong. Failed states have no real government.

. . .

December 2018: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) becomes president after winning an overwhelming electoral victory. In his inaugural address he invoked a word that transfixes Mexico: Impunity. Under his administration "Corruption and impunity" will end he said.

For angry and disenchanted Mexican citizens, "impunity" means embedded injustice within their nation's governing institutions and society.

Donald Trump gets credit for understanding a border wall not only hindered illegal immigration it obstructed cartel smuggling. AMLO eventually agreed that Trump's U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement was a good deal for Mexico -- real jobs and honest income.

The Jan. 5 shootout in Sinaloa state is a warning for Mexico that it still faces well-armed and well-financed internal enemies. Three days before Biden's El Paso photo op, 3,600 Mexican soldiers and security personnel captured Ovidio Guzman, the son of jailed Sinaloa (aka Pacific) cartel kingpin Joaquin Guzman. The operation resulted in a 10-hour battle with gunmen in a town near Culiacan. Security forces captured 50-caliber sniper rifles and two dozen vehicles with add-on armor.

Culiacan is 500 miles from the US-Mexico border but the cartel wages war throughout North America -- yes, the border war now reaches New York City. In December the DEA announced during 2022 the U.S. seized 50 million fentanyl-laced pills and 10,000 pounds of powder -- "379 million potentially deadly doses." The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels produced most of the fentanyl at "secret factories in Mexico with chemicals largely sourced from China."

. . .

An undefended U.S. border increases cartel profits and makes Mexico more vulnerable. Drugs, crime and social support costs sap the U.S. The demographic shifts present additional challenges.

Who benefits? Communist China, drug cartels and corrupt politicians. Quite a strategic consequence.

Again, more at the link.

Our border security is like most other problems tackled by the US government.  It's been addressed more in the breach than in the observance.  Partisan political interests, pressure groups and the influence of outside funding on politicians (a.k.a. "re-election fund contributions") have neutered any effective response.  The can has been kicked down the road far too often, so that a problem that could have been addressed relatively easily in its early years has now ballooned out of control.  There is no longer any easy fix for our border problems.  Even a full-scale border wall would now face military-style breaches by the cartels, who have more than enough weapons and gunmen to do the job.  Perhaps the only thing that would now work is a "no-mans-land" along the border;  two border walls, one about 10 miles inside Mexico, the other about 10 miles inside the USA.  Anything and anyone moving between those walls would be targeted, if necessary by "shoot-on-sight" automated defenses.  If there's any other practical, effective way to stop the current invasion, I can't think of it.

Folks, we're in a state of war with the Mexican drug cartels.  They're now making almost as much money out of illegal alien smuggling as they are out of drugs.  They're rolling in money, and money talks.  We can't cut off the money, thanks to feckless politicians who worry more about lining their own pockets than about securing our borders.  Therefore, we have to face up to the fact that this is a war, and right now we are being defeated in detail.

How to fix it?  Well, I know how to fix it.  Any military veteran can tell you how to fix it.  However, the politicians will never allow that solution - so we're stuck.

Peter