If you haven't been following the job market...

 

... you might not have noticed that reality is catching up to prediction rather faster than we might want to believe.

A couple of weeks ago I cited Matt Shumer's blog article about the current state of artificial intelligence (AI).  His article went viral, and has been quoted in many mainstream news media outlets.  Here are a couple of excerpts, followed by real-world examples of how his predictions are already happening in the corporate world.

I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. I describe what I want built, in plain English, and it just... appears. Not a rough draft I need to fix. The finished thing. I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed. A couple of months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding it, making edits. Now I just describe the outcome and leave.

. . .

The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from "helpful tool" to "does my job better than I do", is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I've seen in just the last couple of months, I think "less" is more likely.

. . .

Amodei has said that AI models "substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks" are on track for 2026 or 2027.

Let that land for a second. If AI is smarter than most PhDs, do you really think it can't do most office jobs?

Think about what that means for your work.

How does this translate to the real world, right now?  Go read this article:

‘It’s going to be painful for a lot of people’:

Software engineers could go extinct this year,

says Claude Code creator

Want another one?

Jack Dorsey cuts nearly half of Block

workforce amid major AI overhaul

That last one's a doozy.  Dorsey is cutting almost half of his company's work force, because he no longer needs them to do the work they used to do.  AI is replacing them.

[Dorsey] said in his note that the job cuts are "one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation."

. . .

Dorsey said that the "intelligence tools we're creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly."

There's more at the link.

Block's layoffs affect every department and every kind of work within the organization.  They're not confined to IT workers, computer specialists and the like.  From secretarial to marketing to management to product development, all jobs are on the line.

What does this mean for your job?  For your kids' education and preparation for the workforce?  We'd better all be paying attention . . . and preparing Plans B, C and D for personal development if we want to be employed in the future.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #1,128

 

Today's award goes to police and tax authorities in South Korea for an epic blunder.

Soon after South Korean police posted a press release boasting about seizing $5.6 million worth of cryptocurrency from 124 wealthy tax evaders, cops realized that they had mistakenly posted images that made it possible for a thief to quickly steal most of the seized assets.

. . .

Clearly legible in the photo, the note contained a complete mnemonic recovery phrase that anyone can use as a master key to move assets off the cold wallet to a new wallet without any additional PIN or permissions required.

. . .

It’s possible that whoever took the cryptocurrency just seized on an opportunity after seeing the cops’ failure to redact the images while scrolling through the National Tax Service’s press releases at dawn. It’s also possible that bad actors are closely monitoring South Korean police cryptocurrency announcements, following what The Block reported was “a series of crypto custody lapses.”

There's more at the link.

OK, I have to admit, that's a special kind of stupid.  Boasting about seizing over $5M from a felon - then posting clues enough to allow another criminal to steal what the cops had just recovered?  Why do I never have the luck to come across photographs like that when I need them?

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 301

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

This is so bizarre, so utterly awful, that I could hardly believe it's labeled "music" . . . but it is.  According to Wikipedia, the Estonian group Winny Puhh is a "metal/punk band formed in 1993".  The term "band" may be optimistic.

My attention was drawn to them by a reader who sent me the link to a 2014 article in Fashionista magazine.  I quote:

For those of you who haven't had the great fortune of being in Europe during the Eurovision, allow me to explain. Eurovision is an international, televised song contest celebrating unity between countries and bad taste. The winning country gets to host the contest the following year. It's ripe with generally terrible music, head scratching choreography, and some incredible British voiceover commentary. People throw Eurovision parties and consume lots and lots of alcohol. Witnessing the Eurovision is like watching the birth of 10,000 glorious GIFs. You have to see it to believe it.

Sadly, the Estonian heavy metal band Winny Puhh (which, yep, translates to 'Winnie the Pooh") didn't quite make it past qualifying rounds for the 2013 Eurovision finals that took place in Sweden this past May--perhaps Estonia wasn't too keen on being represented to the rest of Europe and beyond by men who sometimes glue Wookie fur all over their faces and hang upside-down from the ceiling while wearing wrestling gear.

But master of cool Rick Owens saw past all that. He had a vision--as designers are wont to have. He reached his mighty hand down into the deep, dark depths of the Internet and rescued Winny Puhh from certain Eurovision-reject-obscurity. He plopped them down on his spring 2014 menswear show's runway this morning in Paris and what happened next, according to UK fashion writer Charlie Porter, was "HEAVEN." The rockers stood up, they sat down, they laid down, and then eventually were pulled up by their ankles towards the ceiling--all while playing some melodic tune destined to never see the light of Eurovision GIF glory. But no matter: Twitter went cray. Vine went cray. And Instagram video had a small seizure.

Aaaaaand . . . here's their performance from the 2013 Eurovision trials.  Brace yourselves.  (And turn down the volume.)

If that's music, I'm . . . oh, never mind.  At any rate, there's your Sunday Morning Cacophony!

Peter

I'm sorry, but this kicked over my giggle-box

 

CederQ, who blogs with Phil over at his place, put up a meme this morning.  I can't reproduce it here, because it's definitely Not Safe For Work and not family-friendly:  here's the link, if you don't mind the risk.  Even so, I had to laugh out loud at the caption.  It reads, on the top line:

SAYS SHE STRIPS TO FEED HER KIDS

On the bottom line:

GETS MAD WHEN YOU THROW CANNED GOODS AT HER

The captions, combined with the NSFW image, had me laughing out loud.

Seriously, though, I can't tell you how many times, as a pastor and a private individual, I've been asked for help by someone.  Almost always, their need is stated to be something physical, like food, a bus ticket, or whatever.  However, when I offer to buy them the thing(s) they need, rather than give them money, they get upset with me.  It's quite clear they want the money for other things, and I'm the bad guy for "giving them a hard time" by havering about it.

I will admit, I've never tried to throw canned goods at strippers (or anything else, for that matter).  I've never even been to a strip show or club.  Nevertheless, I'm curious about the ballistics.  What size can?  What contents?  How hard should it be thrown?  Answers in Comments, please - but keep it clean!

Peter

The UPS air disaster as experienced on the ground

 

Midwest Safety has released a 40-minute video compilation of bodycam footage from emergency responders who rushed to the scene of the UPS air crash in Louisville in November last year.  It's harrowing footage, showing the chaos as responders tried to come to grips with a situation far larger and far worse than they could have envisaged.  I highly recommend watching it to learn what happened, figure out how it could have been done better, and to ask yourself, "What would I do in that situation?"

A tip o' the hat to Zendo Deb at 357 Magnum for posting the video.

Having been involved with civil defense and disaster response on two continents over many years, I can promise you:  that Louisville crash is the stuff nightmares are made of for any and all emergency responders.  It's going to be a case study for years, probably decades to come.

May almighty God have mercy on the souls of all who died there.

Peter

It's no wonder people can't afford to buy a home

 

This article applies to California, where the problem is particularly bad, but it's evident in other states too.

Glenn and Lorraine Crawford paid about $500 a month to insure their home in Agoura Hills northwest of Los Angeles when they bought it in 2012.

The Crawfords say they have little alternative but to pay the bill that arrived last month, which, at more than $44,000 a year, is almost as much as their mortgage bill. The only other insurer willing to cover their home, Lloyd’s of London, quoted them $80,000 a year.

More than a year after infernos tore through Los Angeles County, millions of Californians like the Crawfords are suffering through a home-insurance crisis that has rolled on for years with eye-watering rate increases, canceled policies and rejected claims.

Two of the biggest insurers, State Farm and Allstate, aren’t selling to new customers in the state, despite getting double-digit rate increases approved for their existing policyholders. A third, Farmers Insurance, has committed to cover more homes in fire-prone areas, but only a fraction compared with the drop in its overall number of policies since the crisis began.

The insurance dysfunction has spread to California’s housing market, the country’s biggest and most expensive, with nearly one-in-five real-estate agents reporting a canceled sale last year because of clients unable to find affordable insurance, according to a survey by the trade body California Association of Realtors.

There's more at the link (may be paywalled).

Florida looks like another problem state for insurance.

Slake Counts has made a frightening decision. After the price of his homeowners insurance skyrocketed, the Tampa, Florida, resident has chosen not to renew his policy.

Now, he’s pondering his future, which may include selling his home and leaving the state.

“There may be other options for me at this time in my life that don’t necessitate me continuing to live in Florida or Tampa,” Counts told Tampa Bay 28 ... “I’m not the only one in this boat.”

He might be right. According to Bankrate, Florida is the third-most expensive state for homeowners insurance in the U.S. Premiums in the Sunshine State average out to $5,828 per year ($486 per month) for a $300,000 home, while the national average is $2,424 ($202 per month), as of November. Counts showed Tampa Bay 28 the amount of his 2026 renewal increased to $14,523.

Factors that have made home insurance increasingly unaffordable for many Americans include higher home prices, the cost of building materials and the impacts of climate change — especially in disaster-prone areas like Florida.

It’s no wonder that some insurers are pulling out of certain states, and why some consumers are taking the risk of forgoing coverage. But experts emphasize the risks to those who “go bare” can outweigh the benefits.

Again, more at the link.

Those are scary, scary numbers.  We bought our home in north Texas ten years ago, paying a relatively low price for a modest 3-bedroom home, and putting down a 20% deposit to keep mortgage payments affordable.  Even so, a quick check reveals we're now paying as much per month to insure our home as we are on the mortgage.  The premium has increased fairly sharply over the past two to three years, and seems likely to go up by more than 10% this year - perhaps double that, thanks to weather-related disasters and losses elsewhere in the state.

Most of us can't claim our insurance costs against taxes, and that's part of the problem.  When a big conglomerate such as Blackrock buys up thousands of houses to rent them out, it can claim their insurance premiums as a business expense against its taxes, making them that much more affordable.  On top of that, it can increase its rental charges to cover what it actually pays.  Given the very large discounts such a company can squeeze out of an insurance company that wants its business - an insurance company that it may partially or wholly own, at that - it may be paying only a small percentage of the retail or consumer cost of insuring its houses.  Is it any wonder that so many consumers find that rental costs in some areas are actually less than the cost to buy a home?

How have you found your home insurance costs and premiums lately, dear readers?  Please let us know in Comments.

Peter