I'm not panic-mongering and declaring that we're facing TEOTWAWKI, but the impact of the Iranian war on the world economy is steadily getting worse, and it's going to affect us in the USA as well. We'll be far better off than most countries due to being a net energy exporter, but problems for our major trading partners inevitably end up being our problems as well.
Click on the following headlines to read more information about each point.
Economist who predicted 2008 crash warns something much worse could be coming
"We have returned to a period of risk, one rife with the sort of pressures that have led to major financial crises.
"This time, the risks are spread across industries, markets, and nations: artificial intelligence, the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry, stock markets, Taiwan, and now Iran."
While each of these issues are enough to cause chaos on their own, combined they suggest that another financial crash is inevitable and the ongoing war in Iran is seemingly at the heart of it all.
Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen
Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.
Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions.
The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year.
Hundreds Of Gas Stations Run Dry In Australia As Hormuz Shock Exposes Energy Security Failures
Australia's weird obsession with "green energy," compounded by a lack of urgency regarding proper energy security, has now collided with the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen.
A country heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, many of which transit the Strait of Hormuz, has reached the fourth week of the U.S.-Iran war, but with a full-blown fuel supply shock now underway, and hundreds of gas stations across the country running dry.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen ... warned that fuel supplies were at about 38 days for gasoline. He said only 30 days of diesel and jet fuel remained.
The Rapidly-Gathering Economic Storm
Karl Denninger looks at problems with AI, housing, energy, food, fraud and many other current issues. He concludes: "Is Iran the triggering event? I have no idea. It might be." Go read his whole article. It's food for thought.
Finally, a perspective from England that may be of interest to US preppers as well.
I laughed at bulk-buyers during Covid, but this time I think the preppers are right
I am not what you’d call a natural prepper. Even during the Covid lockdowns, when others piled supermarket trolleys high with giant packs of loo roll, I felt the UK’s shoppers were losing their collective grey matter. But as the war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the ships of the US, Israel and their Western allies, I find myself changing tack.
This time round, I’m with the doomsters. You don’t have to be Nostradamus to foresee that we will all feel the impact from the global supply chain of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, sulphur and helium being suddenly, severely restricted.
Today’s Bright Young Things may soon wake to their very own Great Slump. Before sitting down to write, I saw an American professor of medicine post the following message on X, highlighting just one little-discussed aspect of the problem: “I hope no one needs an MRI this year. The world’s largest producer of liquefied helium is in Qatar and is shut off.” He had just been told that his own institution’s yearly supply will be halved, at best.
That last paragraph is a wake-up call. How many MRI's are performed every day in the USA? What would those needing them (and the doctors who call for them) do if half of them could not be performed? Could this be a life-or-death situation for the patients needing them? I suspect it might.
As I said above, I'm not one to cry "Wolf!", and I don't want to spread alarm and despondency: but forewarned is forearmed. If we need something that may soon be in short supply, now might be a very good time to get it, and beat the rush.
Peter