A sobering look at automation, here and in China

 

Fedex is making news by employing robots to load and unload trailers.

FedEx says that trailer loading remains one of the most physically demanding and challenging workflows in parcel logistics, but has historically been difficult to automate using traditional solutions. However, the workflow is fundamental to FedEx operations since the company loads tens of thousands of trailers daily across its U.S. network.

Through its collaboration with Dexterity, FedEx said it is now establishing not only how physical AI performs in trailer loading operations, but also how the technology integrates into broader hub operations, including destination planning, trailer assignment, maintenance, and workforce processes.

Dexterity says its platform uses the company’s “Foresight” world model for physical AI to make real-time decisions in dynamic environments., and to control its dual-armed superhumanoid robot called “Mech,” that is designed for heavy industrial operations while remaining compact enough to operate inside trailers.

There's more at the link.

That is (or should be) yet another wake-up call to the trades unions representing US transport and cargo handling workers.  Slowly but surely, their members' jobs are being taken over by automation.  Amazon is already using a largely robotic workforce at many of its biggest and busiest customer service warehouses and hubs, and where Fedex goes, UPS and other shippers will go there too (if they haven't done so already).  I suspect most blue-collar workers have not given enough thought to what they'll do for a living if jobs like those are automated out from under them.

The bigger worry, to me, is the enormous gap between automation in first-world economies versus what's happening in China.  Consider this chart (click the image for a larger view):

The article accompanying that chart says, in part:

The data covers only physical industrial robots, not software or consumer technologies.

The chart shows that in 2011, China, the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea were all installing similar numbers of these robots. However, in the decade that followed, the paths of these countries diverged. By 2023, annual installations in China had risen to 276,000 robots, a twelvefold increase.

Over the same period, installations in the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea also increased, but much more slowly: none of them even doubled. The United States, which saw the second-largest rise, went from 21,000 new installations in 2011 to 38,000 in 2023.

These figures refer to new robots installed each year; that is, annual additions to the existing stock of robots. The IFR also publishes data on the total number of robots in operation, and by this measure, China also had the largest installed base, at around 1.76 million robots in 2023.

Again, more at the link.

The USA's total installed base of industrial robots was less than 400,000 units at the end of 2024.  At the same time, China had more than two million units in service.  The gap has only widened since then, and at a faster pace, too.

Those who say that we need to revive US manufacturing aren't looking hard enough at those numbers.  I don't believe it's possible any longer to rejuvenate US manufacturing in the traditional sense.  If we focus on technological sophistication, that's a different story:  but China's working on that just as hard as we are, if not more so.  Yes, I've read recent reports that China's economy is in trouble, and that they may be facing recession or depression:  but that doesn't take away from the immense technological lead they've built up in manufacturing.

This latest news from Fedex is a step forward for the company.  However, it's a drop in the bucket compared to what China is already doing.  American companies had better innovate a lot faster if they want to avoid being swept away by a Chinese-led tsunami in the business world.  That's not just a problem here, of course:  Europe is even worse off than we are.  Trouble is, I don't think enough of our private sector business leaders are paying it enough attention.  They're focused on their next quarterly results, not whether they'll still exist in a few years' time . . .

Let's give the last word to Dire Straits.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #1,129

 

An "influencer" in Nebraska appears to have generated entirely the wrong kind of influence in the firearms community.

A Lincoln, Nebraska, wannabe influencer had his girlfriend film him while instructing his followers on how to properly handle a newly purchased 9mm pistol.

Then while racking the gun, and ignoring multiple rules of firearm safety (treat every gun like it's loaded, know where your gun is pointing, and keep your finger off the trigger), his pew pew went pew right through his leg.

There's more at the link.  Here's a brief video report about the incident.

Apparently the victim shot himself through the femoral artery (one of the largest blood vessels in the body) and nearly bled to death before responding officers could apply a tourniquet (a very difficult part of the anatomy in which to do that) and get him to a hospital.  He's said to be in critical condition.

Dare one say his prospective career as an influencer went with a bang?

Peter

Health update

 

This is an "omnibus post" to draw together threads from various earlier report-backs and clarify the situation for those interested.  If you don't want to know, that's OK.  Go read the bloggers in the sidebar.

Regular readers will know that for the past three years or so, I've been battling some very debilitating medical issues.  One was resolved (after five hospital procedures) with the removal of my right kidney last year.  The remaining kidney seems to be working just fine, for which I'm duly grateful!

The other problem is proving much, much more difficult to resolve.  Briefly, more than 22 years ago I suffered an injury to my spine.  A discectomy didn't work, so the vertebrae involved had to be fused.  Unfortunately, the injury (aggravated by almost half a year's delay in getting initial surgery, thanks to bureaucratic fumbling) resulted in permanent damage to my left sciatic nerve.  Since then, I've had limited mobility (sometimes very limited) and been in pain 24/7/365.  I've mostly kept it under control through some pretty strong pain medication, but that doesn't always work.  I've learned to grit my teeth through the bad days, and carry on regardless.

About three years ago I became aware of a steady increase in pain levels in my lower back, and more frequent difficulties with nerve pain in my left leg.  Over the past couple of years I've undergone multiple CT scans, neurological examinations and other tests, but could never get doctors to agree on precisely what the problem was and/or what should be done (particularly whether a given procedure would solve all my problems, or require other procedures to deal with some of them).  Eventually, in sheer frustration, a couple of months ago I asked for my case to be referred to a top neurosurgeon in Dallas, to ask for his opinion.

Well . . . I've received his opinion, and I don't like it (not that complaining helps - it's about as much use as farting against thunder).  Basically, he says that yes, several of my lumbar vertebrae need attention.  However, since the exact issues affecting my pain, mobility, etc. can't be accurately determined, the vertebrae involved should not be fused until that is known, because surgery could not be guaranteed to fix things.  Lacking such certainty, other treatment options should be pursued.

All right, then.  We move on to dealing with the symptoms until such time as we can more precisely define the cause.  I've been consulting a pain management specialist for some months, and will discuss the neurosurgeon's opinion and future options with him on Friday.  I don't want to increase my present dosage of (opioid) pain medication, but I may not have much choice in the matter in the short term.

There are three problems needing to be fixed, or at least alleviated.

1. The damaged nerve in my left leg, and its root in the (compressed) spinal cord, are affecting my balance to an ever greater extent.  I've always been slightly unsteady on my feet since my injury, but over the past couple of years this has gotten worse.  I now have to use a walking stick to cover anything other than short distances, in case the nerve "shorts out" for a second or two and dumps me on the ground.  Thank heavens for shopping carts - without them, I couldn't walk around a supermarket for long.  I've had a couple of bad falls, most recently just last week, where I had to call for help to get up again.  When your left leg and hip has turned into a useless meat deadweight and won't respond to your nerve signals at all, it makes life rather tricky!  Still, I won't complain too much about it.  There are people who've suffered the same injury I did who never walked again.  Compared to them, I'm well off.  If worse comes to worst, I guess I may have to look at a mobility scooter or something like that, although I really don't want to use one.
2. The balance issues appear to be conflicting with pain management.  I've been wearing a back brace for several months while walking, which does alleviate some of the pain and helps me stay on my feet longer (and lift things more easily when that becomes necessary).  However, the more often (and longer) I wear the back brace, the less steady my gait becomes and the easier it is to lose my balance.  When I think about it, it was compression of the nerve in the first place (during my original injury) that caused my ongoing problems, so it's perhaps logical that adding additional compression via a back brace may aggravate things.  A neurological Catch-22, perhaps? That will be a topic for discussion with the pain management specialist on Friday.
3. Some of the newer treatments (for example, caudal epidural steroid injections - of which I've had two so far (ouch!) - and, potentially, radiofrequency ablation for pain management, which is a convoluted medical term meaning they cauterize nerve endings) have side effects that can cause and/or aggravate other problems.  (For example, hope and pray they cauterize the right nerve(s), because there's no coming back from that if they don't!)  If I'm to continue with such methods, I need to understand precisely what's involved, and decide whether the promised benefits are worth the almost inevitable downsides.  On the other hand, what (if any) are the alternatives?

Financially, we're coping.  In case you missed earlier posts on this subject, I've had to argue ad nauseam with bureaucrats in both workers comp (for my original injury) and a medical insurer (for current problems).  Neither wants to pay, seeking instead to pin the responsibility for the situation on the other.  Meanwhile, since we can't wait for them to sort out their turf wars, we've had to pay our own way up front.  We hope to recover at least some of that money from one or the other agency in due course.  Thanks to reader generosity during my fundraiser last year (and a few who've continued that support since then - shout out to C. in particular!), plus our savings, plus a second mortgage on our home, we've been able to cope with the bills racked up so far (several tens of thousands of dollars).  We remain deeply grateful for your help and support, without which our lives would be a whole lot more complicated right now.

Anyway, that's the state of my health so far.  Thank you again to everyone who's supported us, and inquired after my health, and sent up prayers for us.  All are greatly appreciated.

Peter

Is the UAE taking combat warship lessons from Israel?

 

Some years ago, I said about the Israeli Navy:

I like the Israeli approach, which crams lots of hitting power into even small hulls (see, for example, its Sa'ar 5 class corvettes, which as far as I know are the most heavily armed ships of their size [just over 1,000 tons] anywhere in the world, and on an armament-per-ton or tons-per-weapon basis might be the most heavily armed warships since the age of the dreadnought).

That approach has since been epitomized even more in Israel's Sa'ar 6 corvettes, almost twice the displacement of the earlier Sa'ar 5's, but even more heavily armed.  There are probably more weapons and weapon systems aboard a Sa'ar 6 than aboard any two, or even three, typical NATO frigates.

I thought about this when reading an article about the new Falaj 3 class "patrol boats" of the United Arab Emirates.  Their displacement is only about 670 tons, but they've packed an awful lot of firepower into that small hull.

Photos of the United Arab Emirates’ Falaj 3 class patrol boat are a reminder that a vessel doesn’t need to be a corvette or even a frigate to be armed like one. At a little over 200 feet long, the Falaj 3 is officially designated an offshore patrol vessel (OPV), but it boasts a weapons suite that would be impressive on a missile corvette and, in some respects, even a light frigate. In fact, at around 670 tons full load displacement, and a crew of just 39, it may be one of the most heavily armed warships anywhere in the world for its size.

OPVs are generally built for constabulary duties rather than high-end naval combat. Their primary missions include enforcing exclusive economic zones, countering piracy and smuggling, fisheries protection, search and rescue, and humanitarian assistance. As a result, they typically prioritize endurance, seakeeping, and low operating costs over heavy armament. Many Western designs in this category carry little more than a medium-caliber gun and a handful of remotely operated weapon systems, with no dedicated anti-ship missiles or significant air-defense systems.

The Falaj 3 takes a very different approach, as is immediately apparent from these photos.

Forward sits a Leonardo 76mm OTO Super Rapid gun equipped with the STRALES guided ammunition system, giving the ship a weapon capable of engaging everything from surface targets to fast-moving aerial threats ... Directly behind the gun is an eight-cell vertical launch system loaded with MBDA VL MICA surface-to-air missiles. This ‘fire and forget’ missile can intercept targets at a range of up to around 12 miles and at altitudes of up to 30,000 feet.  Further aft is a 21-cell Raytheon Mk 49 launcher for the RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM), giving the vessel a second, independent layer of point air defense. Most OPVs are fortunate to carry an adapted man-portable air defense system, if they have any dedicated air-defense system at all.

The offensive fit is equally notable. Four MM40 Exocet Block 3C anti-ship missiles provide over-the-horizon strike capability, while two 12-cell Low-cost Guided Imaging Rocket (LOGIR) guided rocket launchers offer an inexpensive way to engage drones, uncrewed surface vessels, and fast attack craft without expending much more costly missiles ... Completing the package are two Electro Optic Systems (EOS) R400-M 30mm remote weapon stations and two 32-barrel Rheinmetall Multi Ammunition Soft-kill System (MASS) decoy launchers, providing close-range firepower and survivability against incoming guided weapons, respectively.

There's more at the link.

I entirely agree with a powerful weapons load-out like that.  It remains a perennial worry to some naval observers (including me) that so many corvettes, frigates and destroyers in US and European service are relatively lightly armed for their size.  There isn't enough depth to their defenses, particularly if they face a swarm of incoming drones or missiles.  If they miss even one, they may suffer severe, disabling damage.  They can't even reload missiles at sea, meaning that in a serious engagement, they'd shoot themselves dry in a relatively short space of time.  After that . . . they're expensive targets.  (Compare them to their equivalents in the former Soviet Union and/or the Russian Navy today.  The Russians have not forgotten the lessons of history, and arm their ships accordingly.  See, for example, that nation's Steregushchiy and Gremyashchiy classes.)

I hope the example of the Falaj 3 class of patrol vessels is studied, and spreads.  We live in an increasingly dangerous world, particularly the ocean passages through narrow straits like Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, etc.  To defend them, we need larger numbers of considerably more powerful vessels than have so far been employed.  Air power has its place, of course, but in the end ships at sea are like infantry on the ground.  You need them to take and hold strategic areas.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 323

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.