Order, counter-order and disorder in Venezuela

 

That seems to be what's happening in Venezuela at the moment.  There's only been one major media report of which I'm aware, over at Gateway Pundit, plus a passing mention on CNN, but it appears a coup d'etat is being attempted at present.  Stony silence from the rest of the mainstream media as I write this on Monday evening;  we'll see if there's more news tomorrow morning.

However, I'm not limited to the mainstream media.  I have a certain amount of what's colloquially known as "back-channel" news coming through.  No less than seven reports have reached me, from different parts of Venezuela, indicating some serious (and violent) disagreements between Maduro loyalists and thugs, and locals who were celebrating his overthrow.  In several cases, gunplay ensued, with civilian victims reported.  On the other hand, the armed factions (including the armed forces) aren't always on the same page.  I've had at least three reports of armed groups fighting each other in an attempt to take over local power structures and/or deny them to other groups.  Again, casualties are reported.

Nobody really knows how this will play out.  Chavez, and then Maduro, armed as many young gangs as they could, totaling perhaps a million people if you believe some reports.  These so-called "colectivos" were relied upon by the Maduro regime as enforcers of their political will, and many are criminals and murderers.  It wouldn't surprise me if they - and/or some of their leaders - tried to seize greater power now that Maduro is out of the way.  It'd be no more than self-defense on their part;  if the Big Boss isn't there any more, they're going to want to protect themselves against any reaction against them by the people or by Maduro's replacement, whoever that ends up being.

This article gives a good perspective on the scale of the problems confronting Venezuela, and also the USA as it tries to control what happens there.

Venezuela, says Robert A Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and one of America’s leading academic experts on political violence, has “perfect terrain for insurgency and terrorism”, as well as multiple armed militias and criminal networks numbering in the tens of thousands.

“Venezuela hosts numerous armed groups, including colectivos, who are pro-government militias used for repression; Colombian guerrillas like the ELN [National Liberation Army] and remnants of FARC [Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia]; major criminal networks like Tren de Aragua; and elements of the Venezuelan military operating semi-autonomously,” Pape tells The Telegraph.

“America will discover enormous apathy and significant opposition among the mass public. Ordinary people don’t like their resources going to benefit a foreign country. Trump’s gleeful promise to send in US oil companies to ‘operate’ Venezuela’s oil smacks of Western imperialism that is sure to trigger the worst images of the ‘ugly American’ that so many in the region know all too well,” he adds.

Let’s assume Rodríguez, whom Trump has also said is “willing to do whatever the US asks”, is a willing client.

What happens if she lacks the ability or the means to deliver the change America wants, or simply to hold the country together?

Venezuela is not going to be easy for anyone to fix.

Trump “is correct in saying this is a deeply corrupt regime, and it’s a deeply factionalised military and state structure engaged in all sorts of illicit activities, who would be hard pressed to part with their ill-gotten gains, prestige and positions, and literally put their necks on the line,” says Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.

The country is staring down the barrel of hyperinflation and a never-ending debt crisis. As Pape notes, the ELN controls patches of the border with Colombia, as well as gold and rare-earth mines in the southwestern provinces of Amazonas and Bolívar.

And Maduro and Hugo Chávez, his predecessor, bought loyalty by carving the state into fiefdoms from which their various clients could extract rents, impoverishing the nation while creating powerful rival power centres.

“Now the head is gone, as we see when you have dictators die, you end up getting a lot of rivals under the leader jostling for power. So don’t be surprised if somebody in the military shoots the vice-president. That’s part of the disintegration,” says Pape.

There's more at the link.

Frankly, I'm glad I don't have to worry about governing Venezuela in its present state.  That job may be impossible!

Peter