Friday, August 28, 2015
A Presidential election hypothesis . . .
Just thinking aloud here. Bear with me.
FIRST: Donald Trump seems to either scare the crap out of, or piss off, most of the Republican Party establishment. So far, so good. Anyone who does that to those ***holes can't be all bad.
SECOND: I suspect the Republican Party establishment will move heaven and earth to nominate anyone but Trump as that party's Presidential candidate for 2016. They'll use every trick in the book, and a few that no-one's ever written down, to accomplish that. They want someone they can control, who'll parrot their message and be faithful to the moneybags that fund them.
THIRD: I suspect Trump will be pissed off enough that he might just do a Ross Perot and run as an independent candidate for the Presidency.
FOURTH: I suspect most Democratic Party establishment figures now agree, whether openly or not, that Hillary Clinton is 'damaged goods'. She's carrying so much baggage, actual and potential, that she can be taken down by any one of a number of scandals spinning out of control. She's also 'old guard' Democrat, out of step and out of touch with a growing liberal/progressive surge (that's behind the rise of Elizabeth Warren and other further-left figures).
FIFTH: I suspect the Democratic Party establishment will move heaven and earth to nominate an 'old guard' Democrat (for example, Joe Biden) as that party's Presidential candidate for 2016, because they're afraid of someone they can't control. Elizabeth Warren is unlikely to get their nod, as is anyone wanting to move out of the path set by President Obama (who's been reliably controllable on most issues).
SIXTH: I suspect an 'establishment' candidate will piss off enough Democrats that an independent left-wing candidate becomes a real possibility. What about Michael Bloomberg? He, like Trump, can afford to spend what he likes of his own money to get into the White House, and raise a middle finger to the establishment in doing so. He'll also attract a lot of left-wing/progressive support, particularly if he asks Elizabeth Warren or someone like her to be his running mate. The liberal urban enclaves, where most Democratic voters are concentrated, would be a shoo-in for them.
So, we may see a match-up between two main political parties AND two independent, rich, self-made candidates who don't care what their respective party establishments think - a four-way fight. Wouldn't that be interesting? Both Trump and Bloomberg have very high name recognition, and very large pools of voters who are probably favorably disposed towards them. I wouldn't be surprised if both of them polled higher than the 'establishment' candidates in an election - and with 'spoiler' candidates on both sides of the fence, the result would be very hard to predict.
The 2016 elections might become a whole lot more interesting than I'd thought . . .