Friday, August 28, 2015

A Presidential election hypothesis . . .

Just thinking aloud here.  Bear with me.

FIRST:  Donald Trump seems to either scare the crap out of, or piss off, most of the Republican Party establishment.  So far, so good.  Anyone who does that to those ***holes can't be all bad.

SECOND:  I suspect the Republican Party establishment will move heaven and earth to nominate anyone but Trump as that party's Presidential candidate for 2016.  They'll use every trick in the book, and a few that no-one's ever written down, to accomplish that.  They want someone they can control, who'll parrot their message and be faithful to the moneybags that fund them.

THIRD:  I suspect Trump will be pissed off enough that he might just do a Ross Perot and run as an independent candidate for the Presidency.

FOURTH:  I suspect most Democratic Party establishment figures now agree, whether openly or not, that Hillary Clinton is 'damaged goods'.  She's carrying so much baggage, actual and potential, that she can be taken down by any one of a number of scandals spinning out of control.  She's also 'old guard' Democrat, out of step and out of touch with a growing liberal/progressive surge (that's behind the rise of Elizabeth Warren and other further-left figures).

FIFTH:  I suspect the Democratic Party establishment will move heaven and earth to nominate an 'old guard' Democrat (for example, Joe Biden) as that party's Presidential candidate for 2016, because they're afraid of someone they can't control.  Elizabeth Warren is unlikely to get their nod, as is anyone wanting to move out of the path set by President Obama (who's been reliably controllable on most issues).

SIXTH:  I suspect an 'establishment' candidate will piss off enough Democrats that an independent left-wing candidate becomes a real possibility.  What about Michael Bloomberg?  He, like Trump, can afford to spend what he likes of his own money to get into the White House, and raise a middle finger to the establishment in doing so.  He'll also attract a lot of left-wing/progressive support, particularly if he asks Elizabeth Warren or someone like her to be his running mate.  The liberal urban enclaves, where most Democratic voters are concentrated, would be a shoo-in for them.

So, we may see a match-up between two main political parties AND two independent, rich, self-made candidates who don't care what their respective party establishments think - a four-way fight.  Wouldn't that be interesting?  Both Trump and Bloomberg have very high name recognition, and very large pools of voters who are probably favorably disposed towards them.  I wouldn't be surprised if both of them polled higher than the 'establishment' candidates in an election - and with 'spoiler' candidates on both sides of the fence, the result would be very hard to predict.

The 2016 elections might become a whole lot more interesting than I'd thought . . .



bruce said...

Hillary can withstand any attack, never been hurt never will.

Anonymous said...

You seem to operate under the deluded idea that America has free elections. The winner of the next "election" has already been decided. If everyone votes for the "other guy" he/she/it will still win. If no one votes at all he/she/it will still take office. EVERY THING ELSE is a shadow play to keep the heard quietly chewing its cud. ---Ray

Sunnybrook Farm said...

The election needs to become a revolution that will force a new government into place. Like the guy above said, the whole thing had been decided, Hillary was to win and Bush was to put on a good show but lose valiantly.

Jay Ater said...

Trump running 3rd party will split the Repub votes and hand the election to whomever the Dims put on the pedestal.

In the end when the boot is on your throat it matters little whether its the right or left.

Bruce said...

Hilary isn't invincible. And short of a pardon, from a president that is none too fond of her and her husband, I don't think she's going to get off without a scratch this time. Especially if the DOJ doesn't do anything about it before the election (and no, I don't think the democrat party is going to pull out a win this time).

And if a hot spare e-mail should turn up in someone's hands...even this corrupt excuse for a DOJ may not have a choice but to nail her.

Stretch said...

Hillary will get Obama's pardon ... but only AFTER withdrawing from the race an placing the entire Clinton organization behind (drum roll please) MICHELLE OBAMA!
Yes, my deluded little mind came up with that theory after I saw photos of Bill and Teh 0ne playing golf on Martha's Vineyard. After golf they went to Vernon Jordon's b-day party. You remember Vernon "Mr. Fixit" Jordon? He's the one who got Monica off her knees and into a "good job."
Hillary stays out of jail. Michelle gets to keep flying at taxpayer's expense and Obama keeps playing golf like always.

Dad29 said...

There's another possibility: Trump goes third-party and Actual American Democrats (and a lot of Republicans) vote for HIM, not Sanders/Biden/Whatever.

Read Noonan's latest WSJ essay. It's revealing.

Roy said...

There has been a four-way split once before in our country's history - in 1860. It didn't end well.

richard mcenroe said...

Trump is a stalking horse for his good friends, the Clintons. If/when Hillary implodes his only reason to keep running is to split the vote and spit in the eyes of everyone who dissed him. He has no actual interest in governing or concern for what happens to the country otherwise.

Joe in PNG said...

I'll posit that the last thing the Obama camp wants is a Hillary victory- and there's a few others in that party with long memories seeing this as a chance to put the Clinton's down once and for all.

I'm also willing to say that they're willing to throw the presidency to the Republicans to maintain control of the Democratic party.

This is going to be a hard, even impossible one for the Democrats to win, even with the media's help. Obama doesn't have coattails, and Hillary does not have charisma.