It's always the little things...

 

Strategy Page points out that one of the critical underpinnings of the entire Russian economy - much less its war effort - is at the point of catastrophic failure.  Yes, Strategy Page tends to be anti-Russian, and as such its objectivity is questionable, but from personal experience (Africa wins again!!!) I can testify that this particular problem rears its head anywhere there's societal entropy.

Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war is being compromised due to catastrophic mismanagement of its railway system. This emerging situation is so dire that cutoffs of service to vast areas, starting with Siberia east of Irkutsk to the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, to save the rest of Russia next year may happen next year. Russian railways account for about 43 percent of all transportation in Russia, and most of its east-west transport. The present rate of loss of rail cars and engines to worn-out axle bearings is so bad that that the Russian economy may come to a standstill and collapse in 1-2 years. One of the key issues here is rail transport of coal, which is declining fast but essential for electric power production.

Running trains with worn-out axle bearings causes them to derail and damage tracks such that movement of trains with effective bearings is not possible until the wrecks are cleared and the rail beds are repaired. Such accidents have recently become significant problems.

The degree of this problem is clouded because the Russian army has taken scores of thousands, perhaps more than a hundred thousand, rail cars out of service for use as storage of their cargos. It takes time and manpower to both unload them for local storage and then reload them for local transport. It’s faster and takes less manpower to unload the rail cars once, directly from the rail cars onto trucks for local delivery. Plus the Ukrainians keep blowing up the unloaded cargo sites ... It is difficult to distinguish rail cars deadlined for worn-out bearings from those with adequate bearings which the Russian army has deadlined as storage for their cargos. Plus there is probably some to considerable overlap between the two.

There's more at the link.

Yes, something as small and as simple as wheel bearings can derail an entire economy.  The fact that many of those who maintain and service rail cars have been mobilized and sent to the Ukrainian front in uniform makes it even worse.  During World Wars I and II, Britain found it had to de-mobilize critical workers and return them to the factories, because without their skills its economy could not adequately support the war effort.  I guess Russia is re-learning that lesson now.

I'd be interested to know how much the problem has been made worse by Russian staff, angry at mobilization hanging over their heads, who've sabotaged rail cars.  It's relatively easy to destroy a bearing:  just inject something abrasive (metal particles are good, but even ground stone will do in a pinch), along with the grease, to the lubrication nipple on the shaft or wheel bearing.  Britain taught Resistance fighters to do this during World War II, and it worked very well.  One wonders whether Russian workers (with, perhaps, Ukrainian encouragement) may not be using the same tactic.

Peter