I'm not panic-mongering and declaring that we're facing TEOTWAWKI, but the impact of the Iranian war on the world economy is steadily getting worse, and it's going to affect us in the USA as well. We'll be far better off than most countries due to being a net energy exporter, but problems for our major trading partners inevitably end up being our problems as well.
Click on the following headlines to read more information about each point.
Economist who predicted 2008 crash warns something much worse could be coming
"We have returned to a period of risk, one rife with the sort of pressures that have led to major financial crises.
"This time, the risks are spread across industries, markets, and nations: artificial intelligence, the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry, stock markets, Taiwan, and now Iran."
While each of these issues are enough to cause chaos on their own, combined they suggest that another financial crash is inevitable and the ongoing war in Iran is seemingly at the heart of it all.
Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen
Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.
Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions.
The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year.
Hundreds Of Gas Stations Run Dry In Australia As Hormuz Shock Exposes Energy Security Failures
Australia's weird obsession with "green energy," compounded by a lack of urgency regarding proper energy security, has now collided with the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen.
A country heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, many of which transit the Strait of Hormuz, has reached the fourth week of the U.S.-Iran war, but with a full-blown fuel supply shock now underway, and hundreds of gas stations across the country running dry.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen ... warned that fuel supplies were at about 38 days for gasoline. He said only 30 days of diesel and jet fuel remained.
The Rapidly-Gathering Economic Storm
Karl Denninger looks at problems with AI, housing, energy, food, fraud and many other current issues. He concludes: "Is Iran the triggering event? I have no idea. It might be." Go read his whole article. It's food for thought.
Finally, a perspective from England that may be of interest to US preppers as well.
I laughed at bulk-buyers during Covid, but this time I think the preppers are right
I am not what you’d call a natural prepper. Even during the Covid lockdowns, when others piled supermarket trolleys high with giant packs of loo roll, I felt the UK’s shoppers were losing their collective grey matter. But as the war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the ships of the US, Israel and their Western allies, I find myself changing tack.
This time round, I’m with the doomsters. You don’t have to be Nostradamus to foresee that we will all feel the impact from the global supply chain of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, sulphur and helium being suddenly, severely restricted.
Today’s Bright Young Things may soon wake to their very own Great Slump. Before sitting down to write, I saw an American professor of medicine post the following message on X, highlighting just one little-discussed aspect of the problem: “I hope no one needs an MRI this year. The world’s largest producer of liquefied helium is in Qatar and is shut off.” He had just been told that his own institution’s yearly supply will be halved, at best.
That last paragraph is a wake-up call. How many MRI's are performed every day in the USA? What would those needing them (and the doctors who call for them) do if half of them could not be performed? Could this be a life-or-death situation for the patients needing them? I suspect it might.
As I said above, I'm not one to cry "Wolf!", and I don't want to spread alarm and despondency: but forewarned is forearmed. If we need something that may soon be in short supply, now might be a very good time to get it, and beat the rush.
Peter
6 comments:
On the other hand......
With Iran being the financial backer behind the vast majority of terrorism worldwide, perhaps we will reap a really nice economic prize when the ruling junta there are all gone. All of them.... very gone.
As long as we pretend it's just Israel and America against Iran this goes on.
But it's not. Trump has been taking away China's oil and crippling their economic development projects to save the Dollar. First Trump forced Panama to cancel their deal with China running the Panama Canal. Not like China impaired or had different charges for different countries shipping. Just it gave China a foothold in Panama. Second Trump grabbed Madro of Venezuela just after China had agreements signed and investments in Venezuela's nearly crippled Oil business. Now Iran again OIL and worse the terminus of China's Belt and Road economic trade route.
Peter is saying stock up, an EXCELLENT Idea, along with getting on better terms with your neighbors as you're going to need friends when stuff get stupid. I was driving during the last oil embargo and with rationing and odd-even allowed days to buy gasoline RIDE SHARING with neighbors was a good idea.
But back to China and why that makes it different than beating up Iran.
Just one example here, could do it for many critical items in our life:
MEDICINE. Who can get more than 90 days' supply for their heart meds, diabetes meds, blood thinners and so on?
SNIP China is a global manufacturing hub for pharmaceuticals, producing a significant portion of the world's medicines. It accounts for approximately 90% of pharmaceutical products manufactured in the U.S..
China and Iran have been preparing for this little war with America and Israel for more than a decade. Even while swimming in cheap oil China built Coal to Fuel plants years ago to turn China's ABUNDANT low grade brown coal into oil and distillates. WHY? It's MORE EXPENSIVE that imported oil...
Because China prepares and plans a decade ahead.
WHY do you think Iran's ALLOWING safe passage for ships that PAY IN Chinese Yuan? I notice a lot of countries are suddenly declaring themselves non-combatants and paying in Yuan.
That Russia and China have stopped fertilizer isn't an accident. FIRST they are not going to starve their own citizens for the PROFIT of selling elsewhere.
Second crippling the US Dollar. American IMPORTS 15% of their fertilizer. Our fertilizer factories are already max capacity SO some 15% of American Farmers are going without.
Food and Oil, stuff we normally export to pay for imports. We are going to have to reduce or stop both to keep things going at home. No dollar sales there.
Saudi Arabia ALREADY sells oil in Yuan and Rubles and Indian Rupees as does all of them.
We are in serious trouble.
Got trusted friends and trusted family to get through the chaos of an economic crash AND the GIMME DAT chaos as their EBT cards fail?
buying in bulk is always a always a good idea if it stuff you really use. something I learned from Mom years ago. also too is the fact that our dollar is losing value as we speak !
take coffee for one item. I drink it a lot. so I stocked up on it years ago. like 3 pounds cans of it. its canned and keeps a really long time.
prices on some of the older cans are like 11 bucks. yeah, it that old. like 6-7 years at least.
still tastes great though. nice hiss when I open up a new can. what coffee going for now ?
18 bucks to 33 oz. ?
canned goods last a lot longer than most people think they do. if kept dry and cool.
LOL like a tiny bit of oil in a nation that will fight us until we genocide every one of them will be a "perhaps we will reap a really nice economic prize ".
How well did Afghanistan turn out?
The Army just raised enlistment age to 42.
Yup, won't be long now.
There go the helium birthday balloon businesses.
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