Early appointments, deliveries to make, trips to take . . . I haven't had time to write my usual morning blog post. Sorry about that, but sometimes life gets in the way!
If I can find time later today, I'll post something; otherwise, I'll post on Sunday morning as usual.
Peter
That's the intriguing question posed by John Konrad in a lengthy article yesterday.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe five million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It is geological and hydrographic.
Every TV analyst in America is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. They are asking the wrong questions. The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy’s willingness and ability to reopen it.
Every talking point suggests the White House and Navy are working hard to reopen the strait but progress is slow. A new posts on Truth Social suggests we may have to considet a new hypothesis.
“I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called Strait?” wrote President Trump in a psot this morning. “That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast!!!”
. . .
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
Read the latest MARAD advisory carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels.
And read this part of the DFC announcement again… “coordinated with US Central Command.”
They cannot pass without the Navy permission.
The green light has not appeared.
. . .
Now connect the dots.
Strike Iran, and Europe either bends or goes dark in an energy crisis.
The European shipping community and political establishment spent the past year dismissing, undermining, and mocking every Trump maritime initiative. They scoffed at the USTR tariffs. They laughed at the SHIPS Act. They blocked the IMO exemptions. They refused to take American maritime policy seriously.
Now their energy supply runs through an insurance facility controlled by Washington.
“Let their navies figure it out.” Except everyone knows they cannot. European naval forces are too small, too slow, and too poorly equipped for sustained convoy escort operations through a contested strait. All the European navies combined could not send more than three ships at a time to defend the Red Sea. An entire German task force sailed around Africa to avoid it.
Eventually Europe will have to capitulate to get the U.S. Navy, and the U.S. insurance backstop, to fully reopen the Strait.
What does “capitulate” look like? The IMO carbon tax. Greenland. Tariff concessions. The SHIPS Act. Every maritime policy priority that Europe and China have been blocking for the past year.
. . .
Look at what the Navy is doing. Or rather, not doing.
The U.S. Navy is in no rush to solve this problem. They are methodically, deliberately, taking their time ... Someone at the top told them to take their time. That signal has to be coming from the White House.
Every day, approximately 1,000 trapped vessels are not available for charter. Every day, European energy dependence deepens. Every day, the DFC reinsurance facility becomes more central to the global shipping system. Every day, the case for concessions on tariffs, the IMO, Greenland, and the SHIPS Act becomes harder for Europe to refuse.
And what does the Navy get for playing along? Support for battleships and stronger allies willing to spend money building their own destroyers when it becomes clear to the world how weak their navies have become.
. . .
I am not arguing that Trump planned this from the beginning ... What I am arguing is that the administration has, whether by design or adaptation, assembled the tools to exploit this moment.
There's much more at the link. Highly recommended reading.
It's a fascinating thesis, and on the surface it looks entirely rational as a way to solve a whole bunch of problems in one fell swoop. I agree with the last sentence cited above. I'm sure President Trump did not intend his actions in Iran to produce this conundrum . . . but it would deal with an awful lot of Gordian knots all at once, wouldn't it?
Peter
I enjoyed a BBC article on the various ways and means British workers had used to wake up in time for their jobs. Here's how it begins.
During Britain's industrial revolution, new factories faced a need for strict timekeeping – including far more specific start times for workers.
A worker arriving even five minutes late could hold up an entire assembly line, losing their employers' profit. They needed a means to wake up on time, especially in the darker winter months, and while early alarm clocks existed at this time, they were far too expensive for a typical worker.
Factories tried using whistles and bells to wake and summon workers, but they often proved unreliable. Instead, an entire profession dedicated to awakening people sprouted up: knocker uppers.
These human alarm clocks would work their way down streets and sometimes whole neighbourhoods knocking or tapping on windows, or shooting peas at them, says Arunima Datta, associate professor of history at the University of North Texas. "They would stand there until they got a response from their clients, they wouldn't move."
In fact, jobs akin to knocker uppers have been used in many other societies around the world, says Datta, especially in Muslim communities during the holy month of Ramadan, when people needed to wake up early to pray and have their first meal before dawn.
Throughout history, people have had plenty of other inventive ways of waking up, from simply keeping roosters to clever candle clocks that dropped needles into metal trays every hour.
Learning how these past societies slept and woke up could even help us improve our own sleep – and awakenings – today.
There's more at the link.
I had to smile at the mention of "knocker upper". In England, that expression meant a job that woke up workers so they could get to their jobs on time. In the USA, however, to "knock someone up" means to make them pregnant.
My mother always used to smile broadly when she heard the expression. During World War II, she was in England "keeping the home fires burning" for my father, who was fighting the war overseas. She acted as a "knocker upper" for her colleagues from time to time: they took turns at waking each other up to be on time for their jobs.
When the first American troops arrived in Britain in 1942, they were enthralled to learn that there were actually job openings for "knocker-uppers". In fact, some of them tried to apply for part-time employment as such at the Labor Exchange, thinking the expression meant in Britain what it did in the USA. You can imagine their disappointment when they learned it had nothing to do with sex! The British thought the Yank servicemen were weird, but funny, and used to joke with them about it. "Yes, I'm a knocker-up, mate, but not that kind of knocker-up!"
I'm still amused by the thought.
Peter
I'm getting more and more fed up with politicians, commentators, journalists and so-called "experts" all saying that President Trump's decision to strike Iran was misguided, wrong-headed and stupid. The same goes for all the European and other nations refusing to provide support, military or otherwise, for the joint US-Israeli campaign in that country.
The blunt fact of the matter is that for almost half a century, the West has wrung its hands, expressed dismay and shock, and uttered pious platitudes every time Iran did something evil. Whether it was murdering tens of thousands of their own citizens, or exporting terrorism to many parts of the world, or bombing Israel, nothing Iran did elicited a suitably strong response from the West. All they did was talk. They did not act. With every incident, they kicked the can further down the road, for future politicians and leaders to do something about it - but they never did.
President Trump and his leadership team recognized that the can could not be kicked any further. The time had come to act, to stop Iran potentially wreaking havoc all over the world. The key moment of decision probably came during negotiations in Switzerland in late February.
Iranian officials told their US counterparts during crunch talks last month that the Islamic Republic possessed enough enriched fuel to build 11 nuclear bombs, President Trump’s special envoy claimed Monday night.
“Both the Iranian negotiators said to us directly with, you know, no shame, that they controlled 460 kilograms of 60% [enriched uranium],” Steve Witkoff told Fox News host Sean Hannity, “and they’re aware that that could make 11 nuclear bombs, and that was the beginning of their negotiating stance.”
Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner engaged in three rounds of indirect talks beginning in Oman Feb. 6 and concluding in Geneva, Switzerland Feb. 26 in what turned out to be a last-ditch effort to prevent US military action against Iran.
“Jared and I opened up with the Iranian negotiators telling us they had the inalienable right to enrich all their nuclear fuel that they possessed. That’s how they opened up,” Witkoff recounted.
“We, of course, responded that the president feels we have the inalienable right to stop you dead in your tracks,” he continued.
“They then went on to say that beyond the inalienable right to enrich, that that was going to be their starting point. And Jared and I just sort of looked at ourselves flummoxed and said, ‘Well, we’re really in for it now.'”
Witkoff, 68, made worldwide headlines ahead of the Geneva talks when he claimed Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.”
The special envoy expanded on those remarks Monday: “I know this: They have 10,000, roughly, kilograms of fissionable material. That’s broken up into roughly 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, another 1,000 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium …They manufacture their own centrifuges to enrich this material. So, there’s almost no stopping them. They have an endless supply of it.
“The 60% material ... can be brought to 90%, that’s weapons-grade, in roughly one week, maybe 10 days at the outside. The 20% can be brought to weapons-grade inside of three to four weeks.”
“They were proud of it,” Witkoff went on. “They were proud that they had evaded all sorts of oversight protocols to get to a place where they could deliver 11 nuclear bombs.”
Witkoff also claimed that he and Kushner, on behalf of the US, offered to provide Iran nuclear fuel for the next decade on the condition it was not used for any weapons program.
“They rejected that, which told us at that very moment that they had no — no notion of doing anything other than retaining enrichment for the purpose of weaponizing.”
With the US-Israeli war against Iran entering a fourth day, Witkoff described Tehran’s negotiating position as “silly,” but added: “They thought they could strong-arm us.”
There's more at the link.
Of course the Iranian leadership thought they could strong-arm President Trump! They'd been doing it to Western nations, jointly and severally, for decades - why should this time be any different? And so they presented the President with the one threat that he could not, dared not, leave unaddressed. How do you kick the reality of nuclear weapons down the road? You daren't . . . otherwise that reality might blow up in your face.
Think how easily Iran could smuggle a couple of nuclear warheads across our borders, perhaps concealed in container shipments from China, or carried by members of its diplomatic corps and/or terrorist groups that are already active in South America. What would a US president do if he tried to rein in Iran in future, only to be told that unless he backed down, two or three US cities would be vaporized? Can you imagine what a left-wing progressive President would do under those circumstances? If you think Obama or Biden or another of their ilk would have stood up to that threat, I have this bridge in New York City I'd like to sell you. Cash only, please, and in small bills.
No. There are many reasons why the US and Israel might have refrained from acting as they did . . . but every one of them is trumped (you should pardon the expression) by the overriding threat of nuclear geopolitical terrorism.
As soon as Iran took that stance in Switzerland, it kicked the can right off the road and made its own destruction inevitable. That's the bottom line.
I think that one day, the rest of the world might be very, very grateful to President Trump for taking the stance he did.
Peter
The caudal injection seems to have gone OK, apart from a fair amount of pain during the procedure. The doctor informed me that the mass of scar tissue in the area - the cumulative result of a bullet wound many years ago, followed by two spine surgeries after my disabling injury in 2004 - made it difficult to pass between the lumps to get at the caudal cavity, and resisted the needle, hence causing added pain. However, once he got in there, it went well.
I'm back home now with a numb butt and vague feelings of posterior resentment. This, too, shall pass. Thanks for all the prayers and good wishes!
Peter
By the time this post auto-publishes, I'll be on the road to a local hospital for a procedure known as a caudal epidural injection. It's designed to inject medication to control nerve pain into the caudal space, a hollow channel running up through the base of the spine. It's an interim treatment for severe back pain and associated limitations on mobility. If it works, it'll buy me time to prepare for the major back surgery that I'm going to need relatively shortly. If it doesn't work, well, I won't be any worse off (apart from a punctured coccyx and a sore butt! The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune have nothing on the scalpels and needles of sadistic surgeons . . . )
I'm not looking forward to the procedure, but I don't have any alternative to it right now, so here's hoping. Prayers for medical success would be appreciated. I'm not sure who's the patron saint of injections through the butt into the spine, but if there is one, I'll gladly invoke their intercession! (Saint Sebastian was shot through by arrows: do you think he might qualify?)
Peter
Ted Gioia points out the real challenge to making an impact in the writing and publishing world - not just authors, but journalists, essayists and thinkers in general.
As journalists lose their jobs, more publicists get hired. The result is that there are now seven times as many publicists as journalists. The rise of AI agents will only make this worse, much worse.
The entire media ecosystem is breaking down. Around three-quarters of journalists now block publicists who are (they believe) spamming them. I get so many pitches from PR people that I can’t even begin to deal with them.
I’m fortunate that I’ve found other ways of getting access to useful information—but that’s more a workaround rather than a real solution. In the meantime, all the noise coming from the publicity world isn’t good for anyone. As a result, many deserving musicians, authors and other creatives can’t get any attention, no matter how talented they are.
There are many causes, but the single biggest one is the decline in paid jobs for journalists. And the underlying reason for that is obvious: Google and Facebook stole all the ad revenues that previously supported journalism. Fix that and so many other problems go away End of story.
. . .
[Timothy Chalamet] grasps the reality that culture is now evaluated on cash flow, not creativity. He’s no fool. He works in Hollywood, where you always pay as you go.
Yesterday the New York Times inadvertently called attention to this same hypocrisy.
Times publisher AG Sulzberger bragged that the newspaper now employs 2,300 journalists—twice as many as a decade ago.
That sounds like good news. But I’m left wondering how the numbers of writers can double while the Times’ coverage of opera, ballet, jazz, books, etc. has collapsed during that same period.
Once you dig into the numbers, you see that the Times also scorns these idioms. In their world, ballet and opera have been superseded by word games and cookie recipes.
There's more at the link. Mr. Gioia goes on to link those issues to the parlous state of fiction writing today: you can read about that at the link, if you're a writer.
I find it hard to argue against his points. So much of the writing we read today in news and social media is half-educated, poorly expressed, and reliant upon slang and profanity to convince readers, rather than make well-informed points and persuade them. I suppose that may be why "shock jocks" like Nick Fuentes or Keith Olbermann have so many followers: they entertain rather than inform, and try to rouse emotions rather than discuss issues rationally.
Trouble is, I don't see any solution on the horizon when I look at the state of American education today. We're turning out semi-educated half-wits for the most part. They've never been taught how to think - only what to think; and the news outlets that publish them are telling people to shut up and do as they're told, and not think for themselves. The results are clearly to be seen in our younger politicians.
Not a happy thought.
Peter
Gathered from around the Internet over the past week. Click any image for a larger view.
Following several recent articles about artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on our jobs, our society and our future, a number of readers have contacted me asking for more information on a very basic level. For example, what is AI? Is it, in fact, intelligence - or just a computer program acting as if it were intelligent? Does AI mean that we're living in something like the Matrix's simulated reality?
Let me offer two relatively easy-to-understand avenues for further reading. First, Fox News has a category called Artificial Intelligence. It contains current and recent news articles dealing with the subject, plus a sidebar of basic information about what AI is, how it works, its history and its dangers.
Second, Wikipedia has a more academic article about AI. It's not as easy to read or understand, but it repays careful attention. Of particular value are the links it provides to articles and Web sites that further explain aspects of AI. I don't trust Wikipedia as a sole-source authority, but I think it's a great start for further reading.
I recommend both links for further reading. Hope this helps.
Peter
... from Kili, our elderly owner of the house pet. (The photo isn't Kili, but the expression on her face is identical! A tip o' the hat to Midwest Chick for the image.)
In my case, the look isn't because I'm offering her salad: it's because I pulled the wrong container out of the fridge. She expects a dollop of milk and/or half-and-half and/or sour cream now and again, and I didn't produce any of them!
Who's in charge around here, anyway? She knows - it's just that her dumb human servants keep getting it wrong!
Peter
We've heard rumors that Kurds in other Middle Eastern nations - Iraq, Syria and even possibly Turkey - may support Iranian Kurds if they stage an uprising to make their enclave independent of Iran. Some fear that's a pipe dream that will never materialize (see, for example, this article from the Daily Telegraph). Others think there's more to it. In particular, Larry Lambert (who blogs at Virtual Mirage) has been to Iraqi Kurdistan recently, and is an adviser to its leaders (see his detailed background article for more information). In a comment to a recent article by Lawdog, he had this to say.
I've been to Kurdistan, spoken with the Barzanis within the year, and worked there, so there is credibility to the extent that my observations are valid. I didn't travel to Iran to meet with the Iranian Kurds. As you point out, all of the Kurdish regions in Syria, Turkey, Barzani and Talibani in Iraq, and the Kurds in Iran have different political bents and different tribal affiliations. Some are hardcore opium growers and marketers, some have more oil, and in all cases, they are "Assyrians" culturally, which separates them from Arabs and Persians. Israel gets along with the Kurds more than just in an enemy of my enemy framework.
I'm certain that the Trump Administration promised the Kurds their "freedom" in exchange for "boots on the ground." Having run with them recently, that is the promise that would turn the trick. The US forces recently withdrawn from Syria were redeployed to Erbil to backfill for the Peshmerga who had deployed. The huge base in Erbil rarely makes the news, but it is significant, and the just-opened US Consulate in Erbil is the largest in the world.
. . .
... an open US recognition of a Kurdish state as free and independent will drop a turd in the punch.
There's more at the link.
So, it appears to be more than a remote possibility that Iranian Kurds, probably supported to a certain extent by Kurds from across the Middle East, may indeed rise up against the Iranian government. What makes this even more likely are developments in Azerbaijan, on Iran's northern border. The BBC reports:
Azerbaijan has said it is pulling its diplomatic staff out of Iran after it accused Iran of launching four drones across the border into the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan ... Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev condemned the "act of terror", demanding an explanation and apology from Tehran.
On Friday he went further, announcing the withdrawal of staff from Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran and consulate in Tabriz "for their own safety", and state media said the military had been placed on maximum combat readiness.
Aliyev also touched on Iran's ethnic Azerbaijani population on Thursday - a sensitive subject for Tehran ... his anger went beyond words, saying that "independent Azerbaijan is a place of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran".
Baku has long avoided this line because of how sensitive it is for Tehran.
Iran is home to an estimated 20-25 million ethnic Azeris, who make up its largest minority group and are concentrated in the north-west along the Azerbaijan border.
The Islamic Republic has consistently regarded their identity and political affiliations as issues of utmost sensitivity. Tehran views any notion of Azerbaijani identity extending beyond its borders as a potential challenge to internal unity.
Aliyev has rarely spoken about Iranian Azeris in such explicitly aspirational terms and doing so now appears to be a calculated move.
. . .
[Iranian Azeris] are also a politically significant community. This week the exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, has been urging Iranian Azerbaijanis, among other ethnic minorities, to rise up against the regime.
. . .
Despite their shared Shia Muslim identity, Iran and Azerbaijan have grown apart politically, and tensions worsened after Azerbaijan's military victories in the 2020 and 2023 Karabakh wars, which were helped by Turkish and Israeli-made weapons.
Iran views Baku's close defence partnership with Israel as a serious threat.
Iranian officials and media have repeatedly accused Azerbaijan of helping Israeli intelligence operate along Iran's northern frontier - claims Azerbaijan denies.
Azerbaijan's ties with Israel extend beyond security. Israel relies heavily on Azerbaijani oil, and the two countries maintain close political and intelligence co-operation.
For Tehran, this collaboration is at the centre of its suspicion.
Azerbaijan, for its part, has long resented Iran's political and military support for neighbouring Armenia, seeing it as direct interference in a conflict central to its own security.
That history of mistrust is an important backdrop to Thursday's escalation, shaping how Baku interprets every move coming from Tehran.
. . .
Aliyev's decision to talk openly of Azerbaijan being a "place of hope" for Iranian Azeris introduces a new and potentially unpredictable element.
Aliyev has pointed out to Tehran that he was the sole foreign leader to visit any Iranian embassy to express condolences following the killing of Khamenei, and that he personally responded to a request to help evacuate Iranian embassy staff from Lebanon.
Now, he says, Iran has repaid those gestures with drone strikes on Azerbaijani territory, something he views as a deep betrayal.
Again, more at the link.
The Associated Press added more details.
President Ilham Aliyev accused Iran of carrying out “a groundless act of terror and aggression,” and said his military has been told to prepare and implement retaliatory measures. The Caspian Sea nation halted truck traffic across the nearly 700-kilometer (over 400-mile) border with Iran.
. . .
[Aliyev] said Azerbaijan’s military has been instructed “to prepare and implement retaliatory measures.”
The Defense Ministry vowed that Iran’s “attacks will not go unanswered,” adding it was preparing the “necessary response” to protect “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country, ensure the safety of civilians and civilian infrastructure.” It didn’t elaborate.
Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan “is not participating in operations against Iran -– neither previously nor this time -– and will not do so.”
He added: “We have neither interest in conducting any operations against neighboring countries, nor does our policy allow it.”
I need hardly point out that "not participating in operations against Iran" doesn't exactly square with the Azerbaijani military's being "instructed to prepare and implement retaliatory measures". Cognitive dissonance, much?
Furthermore, if Iranian Kurds rise up against the government, consider what Iranian Azeris might do. After all, many of their ethnic leaders have been oppressed by the Iranian government, including imprisonment, harassment, censorship and other measures. Regardless of what the Azerbaijan government does, perhaps some Iranian Azeris might be inspired by a Kurdish uprising to launch one of their own; and if they do, can Azerbaijan - which regards itself as the homeland and leader of all Azeris - stand idly by and do nothing, thereby potentially threatening its self-proclaimed ethnic leadership?
Finally, note that US Vice-President Vance is currently visiting both Armenia and Azerbaijan, two nations that recently fought a war with each other and are still at daggers drawn. If the threat of renewed hostilities between them can be negotiated away, or at least reduced, that will allow Azerbaijan to focus its attention - and its military - elsewhere . . . towards Iran, perhaps? Might Vice-President Vance be discussing that matter in suitably diplomatic language?
So, the US appears to be encouraging an uprising by Iran's Kurds, and Azerbaijan is making nice with Israel and the USA - both allied with each other against Iran - in the face of Iranian terrorism and suppression of its large Azeri population. If both subsets of Iran's people were to rise up and support each other, probably - almost certainly - with military support from the USA and Israel, what would this mean to Iran? It would become a three-sided onslaught against that nation. Could the current regime there survive that?
I'm speculating, of course: but if one looks at the news articles and commentary above, and reads between the lines, and puts two and two together, the picture that emerges is one that should make the Iranian government very worried indeed. At least, that's the way I see it.
Peter
For all the doom-and-gloom prophecies about what artificial intelligence (AI) will do to the job market and the business sector, AI does have some very useful applications for the average American. Here's one.
Last summer, a man’s brother-in-law suffered a fatal heart attack. The hospital bill for four hours of emergency care: $195,628.
The man’s sister-in-law was ready to pay it. He asked her to wait. He requested an itemized bill with CPT codes, the universal billing codes hospitals use, and fed the whole thing into Claude, an AI chatbot.
Within minutes, Claude found duplicate charges, services billed as "inpatient" even though the patient was never admitted, supply costs inflated by 500% to 2,300% above Medicare rates and charges for procedures that never happened. He cross-checked with ChatGPT. Both AIs agreed. He wrote a six-page letter citing every violation by name.
The hospital dropped the bill to $33,000. An 83% reduction. Zero medical training. A $20 app.
There's more at the link. Highly recommended reading for anyone expecting or receiving big medical bills.
I've used this myself over the past year or so. As regular readers will know, I've been dealing with multiple medical issues for some time, including the removal of a kidney and forthcoming major spinal surgery for which extensive (and intensive) preliminary examinations and tests have been required. I've had to spend over $30,000 in doing so. However, once I started analyzing what I was being charged by using online AI tools, I was able to secure some dramatic reductions in the billing. I reckon I've saved five figures worth of money already, and expect to save a lot more by doing the same thing in future.
I recommend that any reader expecting (or paying) large medical bills should read the whole article referenced above, then try its recommendations for yourself. You may be very pleasantly surprised by how much you save.
Peter
Commander Zero, whom we've met in these pages on several occasions, recently wrote an article asking his readers for feedback on cold weather food storage. His exact question was: "If you were going to store foods in a location that was going to be subject to freeze/thaw cycles, what foods would be best choices?"
Many of his readers responded - 44 of them, as I write these words. They've provided a great deal of information that's useful for anyone considering food storage, even if not in a cold-weather environment. I highly recommend clicking over to his place to read his question and explanation, and their responses.
Peter
I'm sure that by now, most of the readers of this blog are aware that Iran has been sending coded signals to unknown persons.
Iran sent out a possible “operational trigger” to activate “sleeper assets” abroad after the war with America and Israel began, according to an encrypted message intercepted by the US.
The coded signal was sent out following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, with the message appearing to hold instructions for “covert operatives or sleeper assets,” ABC News reported, citing a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies.
The message could “be intended to activate or provide instructions to prepositioned sleeper assets operating outside the originating country,” the alert warned.
. . .
“If ever there’s going to be a Hezbollah cell or a Hamas cell act in the United States in a violent way, it’s now,” Chris Swecker, a former assistant FBI director, told Fox News after the war began.
There's more at the link.
Anybody with any knowledge of international terrorism has been aware of the security risk posed by allowing millions of illegal aliens to cross our borders during the previous administration, with minimal or no security and background checks. I shall be highly surprised if several hundred - possibly several thousand - terrorists and their supporters did not take advantage of that opportunity. It was a gilt-edged invitation to set up terrorist, espionage and sabotage cells within the US in a virtually untraceable, unidentifiable fashion, and I'm sure our enemies did precisely that. Individual terrorists would have done likewise.
We don't know how many such cells or individuals did that, but we've already seen examples of illegal aliens committing such crimes. I would expect increased acts of terrorism in the short term, and possibly one or two attempts to commit some really big atrocity such as the World Trade Center attacks of 2001. I'm sure law enforcement and security agencies and staff have already been briefed about that, and are on a higher state of alert to spot and prevent them. However, most individual Americans are not security-conscious at all, and most are not armed and ready to defend themselves and others. That would apply particularly to "blue" states, where anti-gun and anti-self-defense messages dominate, but it's not restricted to them. Even here in Texas, generally regarded as a very pro-Second-Amendment state, there are urban pockets where liberal/progressive ideas and policies dominate. (Plano, I'm looking at you.)
I can only suggest that readers arm themselves to the extent legally possible, and be prepared to defend themselves and their loved ones if necessary. I'd also suggest remembering and applying John Farnam's sage advice:
The best way to handle any potentially injurious encounter is: Don’t be there. Arrange to be somewhere else. Don’t go to stupid places. Don’t associate with stupid people. Don’t do stupid things.
Sometimes we can't avoid having to be in or near such places or people. If so, plan to get out of there as quickly as possible, and keep your head on a swivel while you're there. Forewarned is forearmed.
Peter
EDITED TO ADD: It's started, at least among sympathizers. See this link for more.
Last week we looked at how artificial intelligence (AI) was affecting the job market. I've been trying to read more widely on the subject, in an effort to understand its implications for all of us over the next few years. Jonathan Turley, well-known lawyer and legal scholar, offers these thoughts.
We are looking at one of the greatest job losses in history.
In a free-market system, such technological changes tend to offset losses with new jobs in emerging industries. And there will be such growth with the AI and robotic revolutions. But it is also likely that we are looking at a static class of unemployed and practically unemployable citizens as this new revolution unfolds.
. . .
The impact of AI is not confined to factory workers and truck drivers.
The danger is that politicians will react predictably and try to subsidize jobs that are no longer viable and industries that are being dramatically downsized. At the same time, they are likely to expand model programs in Democratic cities for universal basic or guaranteed income.
Democrats have moved forward with more than 60 bills creating such programs, and this week, Cook County, Ill. (the second-largest county in the U.S.) made permanent the universal basic income program it had originally launched with federal COVID-19 relief funds.
The problem is the creation of what I call a “kept citizenship” in a republic designed for people who are economically and politically independent from the government. That system is seriously undermined by a large percentage of citizens living off the government dole.
The solution cannot be an “arts-and-crafts” population kept entertained by government programs to learn glassblowing and pottery-making. A different type of citizen would emerge that is unlikely to be sufficiently free of the government to counter its excesses or failures.
. . .
All governments will face this existential crisis in the 21st Century. It will create growing instability globally. Although AI and robotics will make goods cheaper and more widely available, they are also likely to have a dramatic effect on populations. For example, as production costs drop with the new technology, there will be less advantage to moving factories to other countries with cheaper labor forces, such as China and Mexico.
Companies may choose to build near consumer markets to save on transportation costs while utilizing higher-skilled worker populations to maintain robotic and AI systems. That could produce massive unemployment in certain countries with low-educated, low-income populations. That in turn could destabilize governments and increase the chances of war in countries with large populations of unemployed young men.
There's more at the link. Recommended reading.
Mr. Turley outlines a very real constitutional issue for the United States. Our federal government is specifically restricted by the constitution in what, and how much, it can do - even if much of those provisions are today observed more in the breach than in the observance. Nevertheless, I think it's a valid argument that our system of government, and how we vote for it, are designed for citizens who are not dependent on that government. They are able to vote as free men and women because they are not dependents. The moment they cease being free - the moment they become financially dependent on the same government they're helping to elect - the greater becomes the danger that they will vote for their own financial advantage, rather than the good of the country. As the Roman poet Juvenal satirically pointed out almost two millennia ago, people will vote for "bread and circuses" rather than what their country needs to remain viable. The fall of Rome not too long afterwards tends to bear out his point.
So . . . if AI leads to increased unemployment (as appears likely at present), what will the newly unemployed do? Can they, on their own initiative, figure out new ways to make a living and rebuild their society? Or will they listen to the siren song of politicians who promise them all sorts of freebies and benefits in return for their vote? (For that matter, any politician who promises to set up government programs to do the hard work for people, so that they don't have to think and work for themselves, is almost guaranteed electoral success. See the universal basic income (UBI) scheme being pioneered by Chicago, and look for something similar in New York and other "blue" cities.)
The biggest threat posed by AI job replacement is one that Mr. Turley has not mentioned at all. It's simply this: if government is to provide a basic guaranteed income to every citizen, it can argue that private pension schemes, IRA's and 401(k)'s are now obsolete and unnecessary. After all, if the state will provide our needs, why do we need to make provision for them ourselves? That leads directly to the next and larger problem: what if the state decides it can confiscate or "nationalize" our pensions, because with UBI we no longer need them? There are many trillions of dollars saved by Americans in such pension systems, and a left-wing government will be frothing at the mouth over the temptation to seize them all. It would wipe out a huge chunk of our national deficit (at least until such governments spend it all again!), and can be "sold" to the underfunded portion of the electorate as a "tax on the rich" who want to "hold on to money they don't need any more". The massive population of "blue" cities and states can be expected to vote for it en masse, overwhelming the more conservative vote of those who've worked for their future income and want to keep it for themselves.
That will, in turn, beget a whole new series of arguments and confrontations over how much UBI should be, and whether "richer" people whose private pension funds were "nationalized" are entitled to a higher UBI payment as compensation, and a whole range of related issues. What if housing were folded into the UBI arrangement, so that anyone receiving UBI was also guaranteed a place to live? What quality of place? In what sort of suburb? Will everyone be forced into Cabrini-Green style housing, or will there be any freedom of choice?
I have no idea what may emerge from the current state of affairs, but I can foresee far more problems for society than are presently being discussed. In days past, laissez-faire economists used to claim that "What's good for the banks is good for the country". Well, AI may be good for business, but it may very well be "double-plus-ungood" for our jobs and for our society. Right now, we just don't know . . . and that uncertainty is dangerous in itself.
Your thoughts, dear readers?
Peter
Gathered from around the Internet over the past week. Click any image for a larger view.
Today let's enjoy a duo who've delighted thousands with their instrumental crossover guitar pieces. I'm speaking of Rodrigo y Gabriela, who started performing in the early 1990's and have never looked back. I've picked a couple of old favorites, plus an extended session with Metallica's bass player Robert Trujillo.
First, here's "Hanuman".
Next, we have "Tamacun".
Finally, from Colorado's Red Rocks Amphitheater in 2014, they're joined by Robert Trujillo for an extended jam session.
Sounds like a lot of fun was had by all concerned. You'll find lots more music from Rodrigo y Gabriela on YouTube.
Peter
I note that the Kenya-Somalia border is to be reopened.
Kenya's border with Somalia will re-open in April almost 15 years after it shut because of attacks by Islamist militant group al-Shabab, President William Ruto has announced.
Based in Somalia, the group has masterminded a series of deadly assaults in Kenya including one on a shopping centre in the capital, Nairobi, killing 67 people in 2013 and one at a university in Garissa two years later killing 148.
The plan has been announced before, in 2023, but further attacks postponed the arrangements.
Ruto said the intention to re-open two crossings follows years of security assessments, adding that there will be a heavy deployment of security forces to ensure the move does not compromise safety.
There's more at the link.
I think this is a terrible idea. That part of Africa - northern Kenya, eastern and northern Uganda, southern Sudan, Ethiopia, and of course Somalia - has been home to the so-called Shifta bandits for generations (of whom Al Shabab is nothing more or less than a recent reinvention of the wheel, with a religious gloss overlaid on their traditional barbarism). The current disastrous situation - almost a genocide - in southern Sudan is just the latest atrocity in a region that's been soaked in blood for centuries. It's family against family, clan against clan, tribe against tribe. The so-called Shifta War was fought there in the 1960's, and despite "official" peace agreements, has never really stopped.
I spent time in the area many years ago, trying to arrange mission convoys for various church groups, getting food and medical aid to mission stations that desperately needed it. I think my convoys were the only ones that usually got through, because I made sure to hire the meanest, most vicious Shifta bandits I could find as convoy guards against their fellow scumbags. They would be well paid, but only after the convoy got through and returned safely. Things got "sporty" on occasion, but my guards usually justified their cost and then some. Sadly, some mission groups decided that my methods were insufficiently Christian, and had to stop. (It's odd that most of their aid convoys never made it more than a few miles from their depots before being raided and robbed blind. They were regarded as "soft targets". My convoys were not! I think they felt I was making them look bad to their NGO sponsors.)
There are many other places like this around the world. Western news media seldom have anything worthwhile to say about them. They quote government ministers or spokesmen who proclaim that everything is sweetness and light, while on the ground it's "the strong survive" and devil take the hindmost. Shifta country is one of the worst . . . and now they want to reopen a border between two of the worst-affected parts of Shifta country.
I already know what the result is going to be.
Peter
Ukraine has become well-known for its innovations in drone warfare, particularly its ability to design, develop, test and produce new models in a few months. This means Ukraine can counter Russian innovation very quickly, forcing Russia to keep on developing replacements. The old weapons cycle of replacing equipment every year or two is now - in some cases quite literally - replacing them every month or two.
It looks like American manufacturers are beginning to get the message. Case in point: a prototype of a new lightweight assault drone that was developed and built from scratch in 71 days.
U.S. Defense technology firms Divergent Technologies and Mach Industries unveiled a new autonomous strike aircraft prototype in Los Angeles on February 17.
The aircraft, called Venom, moved from concept to flight readiness in just 71 days, or about 10 weeks. The companies say the rapid timeline shows how digital manufacturing and modular engineering can shrink development cycles that traditionally take years.
The prototype was built as a flight demonstration platform. It is designed to prove that defense hardware can go from initial design to operational prototype much faster using software-driven engineering and advanced production systems.
. . .
Instead of building wings, fuselage sections, skins, and control surfaces as separate multi-part assemblies, it produced large monolithic structures. That reduced overall part counts and simplified production workflows. Fewer parts mean fewer fasteners, fewer failure points, and faster assembly.
According to the companies, this process compresses production timelines while maintaining structural integrity. The goal is to create aerospace-grade hardware at a pace closer to software development cycles.
There's more at the link.
This gets even more interesting when we recall that over the past few years, the US military has developed containerized additive manufacturing (so-called "3D printing") facilities that can be deployed along with military units, including infantry or armor brigades, naval ships, etc. Furthermore, with modern high-bandwidth satellite communications facilities, detailed design and manufacturing blueprints and instructions can be distributed from the manufacturer to those field units, built and tested under operational conditions, and feedback and suggested improvements sent back to the manufacturer, in literally hours or days. The advent of modern AI systems means that the process can be sped up by an unknown, but undoubtedly significant factor, meaning that the "loop" of design-build-test-evaluate-redesign can be drastically shortened. Given an adequate basic design, the ten-week process described above might be reduced to no more than two or three weeks. One side can have a counter to a new enemy technique or weapon almost before the latter has been fully deployed.
We're only at the start of this revolutionizing of at least some military development and manufacturing processes. It's going to become much more widespread, very quickly - and in the process it will solve a number of problems that have plagued armed forces for literally centuries. Want an example? Try the under-development Red Wolf cruise missile, small enough to be fired from Marine Corps helicopters and modified agricultural aircraft, enabling those platforms to reach out several hundred miles with pinpoint accuracy. Variations on that theme are being developed right now using similar technology, and should cost considerably less than currently-deployed equivalents.
Who knows where this will end up?
Peter
For all the fans of predestination out there. Click the image to be taken to a larger version at the 'Pearls Before Swine' Web page.
So much for AI inspiration!
Peter
How many of you have been to, or know the culture of, the Philippines or Cambodia?
How many of you have sampled the (in)famous balut?
If you have, you'll know why this image (courtesy of the blogger at Come And Make It) led to an instant attack of visual indigestion . . .
I can't think of anything more calculated to utterly destroy Peeps' market share!
Peter
(P.S.: My wife's response was "Not just no, but HELL, NO!!!")
... you might not have noticed that reality is catching up to prediction rather faster than we might want to believe.
A couple of weeks ago I cited Matt Shumer's blog article about the current state of artificial intelligence (AI). His article went viral, and has been quoted in many mainstream news media outlets. Here are a couple of excerpts, followed by real-world examples of how his predictions are already happening in the corporate world.
I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. I describe what I want built, in plain English, and it just... appears. Not a rough draft I need to fix. The finished thing. I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed. A couple of months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding it, making edits. Now I just describe the outcome and leave.
. . .
The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from "helpful tool" to "does my job better than I do", is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I've seen in just the last couple of months, I think "less" is more likely.
. . .
Amodei has said that AI models "substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks" are on track for 2026 or 2027.
Let that land for a second. If AI is smarter than most PhDs, do you really think it can't do most office jobs?
Think about what that means for your work.
How does this translate to the real world, right now? Go read this article:
Want another one?
That last one's a doozy. Dorsey is cutting almost half of his company's work force, because he no longer needs them to do the work they used to do. AI is replacing them.
[Dorsey] said in his note that the job cuts are "one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation."
. . .
Dorsey said that the "intelligence tools we're creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly."
There's more at the link.
Block's layoffs affect every department and every kind of work within the organization. They're not confined to IT workers, computer specialists and the like. From secretarial to marketing to management to product development, all jobs are on the line.
What does this mean for your job? For your kids' education and preparation for the workforce? We'd better all be paying attention . . . and preparing Plans B, C and D for personal development if we want to be employed in the future.
Peter
Today's award goes to police and tax authorities in South Korea for an epic blunder.
Soon after South Korean police posted a press release boasting about seizing $5.6 million worth of cryptocurrency from 124 wealthy tax evaders, cops realized that they had mistakenly posted images that made it possible for a thief to quickly steal most of the seized assets.
. . .
Clearly legible in the photo, the note contained a complete mnemonic recovery phrase that anyone can use as a master key to move assets off the cold wallet to a new wallet without any additional PIN or permissions required.
. . .
It’s possible that whoever took the cryptocurrency just seized on an opportunity after seeing the cops’ failure to redact the images while scrolling through the National Tax Service’s press releases at dawn. It’s also possible that bad actors are closely monitoring South Korean police cryptocurrency announcements, following what The Block reported was “a series of crypto custody lapses.”
There's more at the link.
OK, I have to admit, that's a special kind of stupid. Boasting about seizing over $5M from a felon - then posting clues enough to allow another criminal to steal what the cops had just recovered? Why do I never have the luck to come across photographs like that when I need them?
Peter
Gathered from around the Internet over the past week. Click any image for a larger view.
This is so bizarre, so utterly awful, that I could hardly believe it's labeled "music" . . . but it is. According to Wikipedia, the Estonian group Winny Puhh is a "metal/punk band formed in 1993". The term "band" may be optimistic.
My attention was drawn to them by a reader who sent me the link to a 2014 article in Fashionista magazine. I quote:
For those of you who haven't had the great fortune of being in Europe during the Eurovision, allow me to explain. Eurovision is an international, televised song contest celebrating unity between countries and bad taste. The winning country gets to host the contest the following year. It's ripe with generally terrible music, head scratching choreography, and some incredible British voiceover commentary. People throw Eurovision parties and consume lots and lots of alcohol. Witnessing the Eurovision is like watching the birth of 10,000 glorious GIFs. You have to see it to believe it.
Sadly, the Estonian heavy metal band Winny Puhh (which, yep, translates to 'Winnie the Pooh") didn't quite make it past qualifying rounds for the 2013 Eurovision finals that took place in Sweden this past May--perhaps Estonia wasn't too keen on being represented to the rest of Europe and beyond by men who sometimes glue Wookie fur all over their faces and hang upside-down from the ceiling while wearing wrestling gear.
But master of cool Rick Owens saw past all that. He had a vision--as designers are wont to have. He reached his mighty hand down into the deep, dark depths of the Internet and rescued Winny Puhh from certain Eurovision-reject-obscurity. He plopped them down on his spring 2014 menswear show's runway this morning in Paris and what happened next, according to UK fashion writer Charlie Porter, was "HEAVEN." The rockers stood up, they sat down, they laid down, and then eventually were pulled up by their ankles towards the ceiling--all while playing some melodic tune destined to never see the light of Eurovision GIF glory. But no matter: Twitter went cray. Vine went cray. And Instagram video had a small seizure.
Aaaaaand . . . here's their performance from the 2013 Eurovision trials. Brace yourselves. (And turn down the volume.)
If that's music, I'm . . . oh, never mind. At any rate, there's your Sunday Morning Cacophony!
Peter
