I'm cynically amused by the brouhaha over the US deal with Saudi Arabia to help that country develop a peaceful - underline, peaceful - nuclear energy program, including (it seems) enriching nuclear fuel.
Consider the facts of the current situation, in no particular order.
- Saudi Arabia bankrolled much of Pakistan's nuclear program, including its nuclear warheads and missiles. It's long been rumored among "those in the know" that Pakistan has guaranteed Saudi Arabia that it can have nuclear warheads at twenty-four hours' notice, in an emergency.
- Saudi Arabia has bought Chinese ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. By strange coincidence, they're the same type of ballistic missiles that Pakistan has in its nuclear silos. Odd, that . . .
- Iran has launched missile attacks on Saudi Arabian territory from the north, using cruise and ballistic missiles. Its Houthi allies have done the same from Yemen in the south. That would be enough to make any nation a little paranoid. What if the Iranian Revolutionary Islamic Guard, or whatever it calls itself these days, were to figure out how to put nuclear payloads on those missiles - either a full-blown nuke warhead, or a "dirty nuke" using conventional explosives to spread radioactive material around, say, Riyadh or a major military base?
- Israel has for decades maintained that it will neither confirm nor deny that it has nuclear weapons. Anyone with two working brain cells to rub together is quite confident that they have more than a few, almost certainly including major thermonuclear weapons. See my comments in these pages from time to time concerning the so-called "Vela incident".
- Given those various and sundry realities and threats, it was obvious that Saudi Arabia was going to go ahead and greatly expand its nuclear program(s). It didn't really have any choice but to do so, if it was to survive in an environment like that.
As for the fat-headed reports that the President was/is at odds with his Energy Secretary over what was done, and how it was done . . . yeah, right. As if any Secretary in the President's cabinet is going to land a surprise like that on his boss's desk, without so much as a "by your leave"! Sure, there may have been friction in the give-and-take between the White House and the Energy Department, but what else is new? The very fact that the Energy Secretary still has his job is sufficient evidence that any such friction was relatively minor.
I'm also enjoying outraged suggestions from the left that the President is trying to stretch the agreement in new ways by pressuring Saudi Arabia to accept the Abraham Accords in exchange for US nuclear help. There's nothing new in this: President Trump has been trying to persuade Saudi Arabia to sign on to the Accords ever since he took office. It might be a very useful talking point to mention that if Israel finds Saudi Arabia diplomatically cooperative, some of the former's nuclear warheads may no longer needed to be targeted at the Arabian peninsula. In Saudi's position, I'd find that a very thought-provoking consideration . . .
Overall, I think America joining Saudi's nuclear program as a partner nation has far more positives than negatives. It will also make Iran rethink its nuclear ambitions, given that the existing Saudi-Pakistan nuclear relationship might put them between two actinic fires, so to speak.
What's next in the Middle East? Your guess is as good as mine . . . but it's likely to be "interesting", in the sense of the fabled ancient Chinese curse!
Peter
23 comments:
Yeah, like signing the "Accords" wouldn't prevent any nuclear incidents between Israel, America and the House of Saud.
They are not as monolithic as you think. Bib Ladin was a minor Saudi Prince. You know 911 and all that.
SNIP Fifteen of the 911 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, two were from the United Arab Emirates, one was from Lebanon.
Grimly laughable that Trumps all for protecting Israel from Iran's "nuke dust" and proving Saudi Arabia with nuke capability.
Given the fact that Saudis are muslim and they do not consider any agreement with infidels (US) to be valid, why are we trying to get them to sign anything? They practice the ultimate 'go along to get along' until they can take over the world.
I remember reports that Israel had roughly 300 uranium implosion gadgets. Not sure if they have ballistic missile delivery ability. Nuclear capable jet fighters are a thing now. Intelligence inputs can include things like the thermal signature of the atomic facility, power consumption, and freight traffic.
30 seconds asking about Israels ballistic missiles:
SNIP
Israel maintains a technologically advanced ballistic missile arsenal, centered on the Jericho series, complemented by sophisticated missile defense systems.
Strategic Ballistic Missiles
Israel’s primary long-range ballistic missiles are the Jericho series, which serve as the backbone of its strategic deterrent. The Jericho missiles are believed to include:
Jericho I: Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of approximately 500 km.
Jericho II: Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) capable of reaching 1,500–1,800 km, covering much of the Middle East.
Jericho III: Intercontinental-range missile (ICBM) with an estimated range of 4,800–6,500 km, potentially capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
.
Israel does not publicly disclose the exact number of operational missiles, but open-source assessments suggest a limited but highly capable stockpile, sufficient for strategic deterrence
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
I will cut and paste again: Jericho III: Intercontinental-range missile (ICBM) with an estimated range of 4,800–6,500 km, potentially capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads.
Get out your map's folks. That includes much of America.
Funny NOT funny a nation that has the Sampson Option can reach most of America with nukes.
SNIP Including results for Samson Option.
Do you want results only for Sampson Option?
The Samson Option is Israel’s nuclear last-resort strategy, threatening massive retaliation if the nation’s survival is at stake.
Definition and Origin
The Samson Option (Hebrew: b'rerat shimshon) is a deterrence strategy in which Israel would use nuclear weapons as a "last resort" against any country that has invaded or destroyed much of Israel.
Samson Option has been discussed for those that BETRAY ISRAEL to its enemies also.
Yeah, Israel is really going to like Saudi Arabia having nuke capability and might think poorly of those that gave it to them.
Tom Lehrer - Who's Next
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRLON3ddZIw
I remember rumors that the Saudis paid Pakistan for nukes if needed some time ago.
Anymore, I trust no Islamics at all, in any way or capacity.
John in Indy
These are the same people who bankrolled 9/11 and cut off our oil imports in the 70's... What could POSSIBLY go wrong here?...
Nope... agree with the others, NOT worth the hate and discontent that will come in the future!
Having worked in Saudi (briefly) and seen the way they treat equipment, They either need to buy a service agreement, pay for Non-Saudi people to mind the store, or not be surprised when the things don't work. Either way, I'm not too terribly worried.
Got a special coming in from Pakistan…
Consider that a change in regime, very like changes in administrations in the US, can yield different results.
Change in administration here enabled Obama to give the Iranians the capital to continue their nuclear proliferation program, plus the nuclear agreement with Iran allowed them to continue in secrecy.
Change in administration here now is to stop them.
As regimes change, as administrations change the intent of a country can change.
Just saying
Have a Good Day👋
👽
Nuclear proliferation anywhere by anyone is NOT a good thing. Understandable, yes. Inevitable, probably. But not something to be happy about. The more people with access to such wealth means the more likely that event they will be used. In fact as they proliferate toe odds become a certainty that someone will use them. We were lucky to stuff the genie back into the bottle after Nagasaki. Let it out again and all bets are off.
Inbred retards are dangerous.
I've always maintained that the biggest secret about nuclear weapons is that the damn things actually work.All it takes is money, a certain number of educated engineers and physicists and the will and you too can threaten to turn your enemies cities into self lighting parking lots.
Just prior to WWII Germany had discovered uranium fission, had the world's premier nuclear research institutions, and had a number of top research scientists. Fortunately for the rest of the world a couple of things happened. Nuclear physics was considered "Jewish science" due to the large number of Jewish scientist working in the field. nearly all of those very capable scientist fled to England or the United States with a quickness..The science itself was suspect and some German scientists were arrested an spent some time as guests of the gestapo for practicing pseudoscience (i.e. non-Ayran science). Second and perhaps more importantly, Hitler when presented with the possibility of developing a nuclear bomb during the war, asked how much it would cost and how long would it take to have a viable weapon. The answer shocked him the cost was unaffordable as German financial and material resources were already stretched to the max and the time estimate of three to five years for a project the scientists could't guarantee won work didn't fit in his his plans for a short war. Thus Germany was never serious about developing a nuclear weapon. By the time Japan discovered the joys of nuclear weapons, Nazi Germany was no more.
I suppose this is simply acknowledging the fact that they are already a nuclear power and technically allies. Given Muslim basis it's still not good. I wonder what is being given by them in the background to make this worth while. I expect to see an alliance of kuwait, saudia arabia, bahrain, and others moving to active combat against iran soon. Or some other major shift. On the cynical side maybe something to drive down gas prices for the mid terms regardless of iran. Not sure what that would look like.
This is just a guess but trump doesn't do freebies that I can tell. I always ask what's in it for us when he is wheeling and dealing. If it's not immediately obvious I generally now think something is happening in the background. The only reason I can think of to take this step which is symbolic for now but more serious later is that something big in the region is being planned with that kind of incentive and recognition given.
You cannot tell one muzzie from another. They all worship moHAMmad, may piss be upon him eternally. They all hate us and want us to die.
I propose we nuke mecca, then tehran.
Instead of allowing countries to have enrichment programs, why not provide any country who wants it enriched fuel for power plant reactors, so long as they submit to a severe inspection regime? If they neither need nor have enrichment capability, they can't make weapons grade material. We get to sell them the fuel needed which creates good jobs here at home. They get cheap and clean energy.
We could even then revive the old plans to repurpose all the depleted fuel. Take it back and sort it into useful components. That was much talked and written about back in the 80s and 90s when I was a Navy nuclear officer, but went away due to the left's strident opposition to nuclear power.
Everyone miss the operational nuclear plant in the UAE?
At least the Saudis do not have a "Samson Option."
Westinghouse specializes in light water reactors. Will it be an off-the shelf design or something new?
The oil imports in the 70s was the result of Arab Princes coming back from Wharton and the London School of Economics and asking why they were getting so much less per BTU of oil than was being paid for coal.
To LL: Yes it appears that the Westinghouse AP1000 is what is being discussed. This is a standardized passively safe design of about 1000 megawatt electrical capacity. Two units are operational in the US with an additional two units nearing completion. Four units are operational non the PRC. Although designed by Westinghouse, after the Westinghouse bankruptcy,Toshiba assumed ownership of the design.
Full disclosure, I worked on the HVAC design of the domestic AP1000 units.
are you sure that this would include enrichment? getting them a reactor for power and the fuel to power it would not be nearly the same as letting them go down the enrichment path
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