Reflections on "Operation Grim Beeper" (what a name!)

 

A Twitter thread offers some interesting perspectives on the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon.

A few thoughts on Operation Grim Beeper.

1) This is one of the most astonishing intelligence operations in history. It is a reworking of the story of the Trojan Horse for the digital age, and it deserves to become nearly as legendary as its iconic predecessor. If we are not utterly astounded, it is because we have seen too many James Bond and Black Mirror movies for our own good.

In real life, operations like this just don’t happen. It is at least four operations in one.

First, the Israelis thoroughly mapped Hezbollah’s supply chain.

Second, they invented a special explosive charge small enough to be inserted inside a handheld device, sophisticated enough to be remotely activated, big enough to do real harm, and yet not so prominent physically or electronically to call attention to itself.

Third, the Israelis turned themselves into a big enough link in Hezbollah’s procurement network to take physical control of the devices and rig them.

Fourth, they activated the charges simultaneously and across a very wide geographic area.

If any one of these sub-operations had been botched, the operation as a whole would have fizzled. Who else in the world could pull off such an imaginative, technically sophisticated and audacious plot? 

2) It is the first mass targeted killing in history. Every one of the thousands of persons killed or maimed was selected individually, yet they were hit at the same moment. The great genius of the operation is that the Israelis relied on Hezbollah itself to select their targets for them. I can’t think of another case like this where the attackers just sat back and let the enemy perform a key part of their work for them. If we map the attacked men we map Hezbollah’s org chart, including the blinded Iranian ambassador to Lebanon who is an IRGC officer. 

There's more at the link.  Recommended reading.

To make matters worse for Hezbollah and Iran, the Daily Mail revealed that Israel set up an entire supply chain for the devices.

The Israeli secret service didn't just tamper with the deadly Hezbollah pagers -- they made them from scratch, having set up a complex web of shell companies across Europe, it was claimed today.

Initially it was suspected that Mossad had managed to intercept and plant tiny bombs in a shipment of the pagers headed for the Iranian-backed terror group in Lebanon after thousands of people were injured and dozens killed.

But now it appears that the Israelis set up front companies across Europe to manufacture the pagers themselves, embedding small amounts of PETN explosive inside, ready to be detonated by a coded message.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied any role in the explosions, but 12 current and former defence and intelligence officials told the New York Times that the Israelis were behind it, describing the operation as 'complex and long'.

Following the series of explosions, Lebanese civilians have been living in terror as they fear that the 'technological war' could be a precursor to a full-scale conflict. 

. . .

According to the New York Times, one of the Mossad shell companies was B.A.C. Consulting in Budapest, Hungary, set up to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo.

Gold Apollo's chair, Hsu Ching-kuang, told journalists Wednesday the firm has had a licensing agreement with BAC for the past three years.

'According to the cooperation agreement, we authorize BAC to use our brand trademark for product sales in designated regions, but the design and manufacturing of the products are solely the responsibility of BAC,' Gold Apollo said in a statement.

At least two other shell companies, one in Sofia headed by a Norwegian businessman were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.

It is not known how involved in or aware of the ultimate plan were the legitimate business people running the companies, such as British-educated physicist Cristiana Bársony-Arcidiacono, who has denied any knowledge of the plot.

B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But for Mossad the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary.

Again, more at the link.

This entire operation was, in intelligence terms, a work of genius.  It's going to be studied as a prime example of tradecraft, deception and sabotage for literally generations to come, by intelligence services all over the world.  I had some training and experience in that field during my military service (very little, compared to active intelligence agents, but enough to be able to support certain operations), and from that limited background, I can only shake my head in awe at the scope and professionalism of this scheme.  Perhaps best of all from Israel's perspective, Iran - which financially supports Hezbollah - would have paid for these devices . . . so Israel made Iran pay for the weapons used to disrupt its own ally's operations!  Talk about sheer chutzpah!

Peter

First in-flight refueling: now in-flight recharging?

 

I was intrigued to read that the US Army is looking at ways to recharge battery-powered drones (UAV's) in flight.

In a bid to revolutionize unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, the US Army has patented a new technology that can keep its drones in the air forever.

. . .

The idea is simple: recharge a drone or multiple drones during their flights, just like mid-air refueling for jets.

Based on the patent document, the new technology includes a system for deploying a powered drone tether.

Various mechanisms are included to connect and disconnect rechargeable drones during flight.

A top drone can carry a special rope to extend it from a base station supplying power. This allows one or more rechargeable drones to connect for charging and then detach to perform independent flights.

There's more at the link.

This appears to have all sorts of possibilities.  If they can do it for drones, could they do it for full-size aircraft?  What about helicopters?  (I can see the rotor having all sorts of interesting effects on a dangling power cable!)  How much power can be transferred, how quickly?  How many drones can be recharged simultaneously through a single dangling cable?

All of these questions are intriguing, but with the technology in its earliest stages, I guess it'll be years before we have answers.  All I can say is, based on events over the past couple of days, it might be best if Israeli engineers were not involved in the design . . . or the recharging might become a high-energy event!  (You should pardon the expression.)

Peter

Heh

 

This blast from the past from Gary Larson's The Far Side cartoon made me chuckle.  Click the image to be taken to a larger version at the comic's Web page.

Larson was a master of the incongruous.  The Far Side daily digest is on my must-read list of cartoons to enjoy regularly.

That cartoon also reminded me of a true story from World War II.  Admiral Cunningham and Admiral Somerville of the Royal Navy were good friends.  They sent each other witty, pithy signals from time to time whenever something amused them, or they had news to share.  One such occasion happened when Admiral Somerville, who'd already been knighted as a Companion of the Order of the Bath in 1935, was promoted to Knight Commander of that Order in 1941 (i.e. a more senior grade of knighthood).  Admiral Cunningham promptly sent him this signal:  "Fancy that.  Twice a Knight and at your age!"

Fortunately, despite their relatively unarmored status compared to medieval knights, the German and Japanese dragons were unable to harm either Admiral during the war.  Both accumulated multiple orders of knighthood, with Cunningham becoming Admiral of the Fleet and First Sea Lord (i.e. commanding the entire Royal Navy) later in the war.

Peter

Remembering a legend: Colonel Jan Breytenbach

 

I was saddened to learn yesterday that retired Colonel Jan Breytenbach of the South African Defense Force died last June.  He was 91 years old.

Col. Breytenbach was a legend among South African soldiers during the 1970's and 1980's.  A few military men in any country can claim the honor of founding a new unit;  he founded no less than three - 1 Reconnaissance Commando in 1972, 32 Battalion in 1975, and 44 Parachute Brigade in 1978.  He "led from the front", commanding South African troops in action in Tanzania and Angola, and (early in his career) British forces in the Suez Crisis.

The Colonel was renowned for his no-nonsense, very direct, occasionally very blunt leadership style.  He never asked any of his troops to do anything he was not ready, willing and able to do himself - and better than most.  During one external operation in Angola, the officer appointed to command the operation (from Defense Headquarters in South Africa) was screwing up by the numbers, so the Colonel walked into his headquarters and simply took over without so much as a "by your leave".  The brass hats wanted to court-martial him for that, but he turned the operation around from a failure to a success, so, much as they wanted to, they couldn't really get away with it.  They did, however, ensure that he never made it to General Officer rank;  he stayed a colonel for well over a decade, and retired in that rank.  (The fact that one of his brothers supported a terrorist movement and was considered a traitor by the South African government didn't help his promotion prospects, either, despite the Colonel's outstanding combat and command history and awards.)

Colonel Breytenbach was renowned for asking forgiveness instead of permission if he felt something needed to be done.  A good example is the Pathfinder Platoon of 44 Parachute Brigade.  He felt one was needed, but could not get official permission to form it;  so he went ahead and did so anyway, equipping it with specialized vehicles and other gear, and sending it into action in Angola.  Sadly, when he left the Brigade in 1982 the Platoon was disbanded, but during its existence it established an excellent record in the field.  One of its members wrote a book about his experiences with Pathfinder Platoon and Colonel Breytenbach.  It made interesting reading.

Col. Breytenbach also wrote several books about his experiences, many of which are still available.  I've enjoyed reading them.  In particular, I recommend his account of the parachute assault on Cassinga in 1978.

Communist and terrorist propaganda has tried ever since then to portray it as a brutal attack on a refugee camp containing innocent civilians.  The truth is very different.  The Colonel commanded that operation, and tells it like it was.

Colonel Breytenbach was a remarkable man, commanding instant respect from almost everyone who knew him.  His track record was second to none, and he remains a legend in the South African Special Forces community (although a highly politically incorrect one today, in that he fought for the apartheid government there, and its successor regarded him with suspicion as having been one of their most effective and dangerous enemies).  The stories told about him are legion, and almost all of them are true (although some have doubtless been well embroidered over the years).  He might be described as a South African equivalent of US Colonel "Bull" Simons - he took no nonsense from anybody.

May he rest in peace.

Peter

Hezbollah's exploding pagers - prelude to a wider, hotter war?

 

The news out of Lebanon yesterday - that thousands of pagers issued by Hezbollah to its members exploded simultaneously, killing a few and injuring thousands - makes one wonder:  what's next?

I don't believe Israel would have destroyed Hezbollah's supposedly secure internal communications network just to "send a message" (although I had to laugh at a cartoon showing exploded pagers with the caption, "Can you hear me now?").  That would be to reveal one of its most sophisticated intelligence and sabotage operations for no good reason.  It's not as if Hezbollah needed any reminder that Israel is on the verge of open war in Lebanon - that's been made very clear in public statements by Israeli political and military leaders in recent weeks.  This is far more likely to have been a precursor to some additional action, possibly military, to which Hezbollah will be much less able to respond, because it can't alert its fighters quickly and securely enough.

It may also be a warning to Iran.  An Iranian-funded underground weapons factory in Syria, making missiles for delivery to Hezbollah, was destroyed by Israeli ground troops last week, demonstrating that Iran and its allies can't stop Israel destroying their supposedly secret facilities almost at will.  Iran controls, funds and arms Hezbollah.  Is yesterday's attack a message to Iran that its surrogate forces are as vulnerable as its arms production facilities?

By the time you read this, further developments may have taken place.  All we can be sure of is that the various sides in the Middle East hate each other with a virulence that many in the West simply can't understand.  Many extremists on all sides there regard it as (literally) a holy war to eradicate each other.  The "pager war" is merely the latest in a long, long line of hostilities that shows no sign of ending.  Please God, let it not lead to an all-out meltdown in that part of the world, complete with an exchange of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons (all of which are held by different parties to the conflict).  There will be no winners if that happens . . . only victims.

Peter

Looks like the E-4 Mafia is coming out of the closet

 

Anyone who's served in the US military, and many veterans of other armed forces, know of the so-called "E-4 Mafia":  service personnel on the cusp between enlisted and NCO status, knowing enough to be useful and dangerous at the same time, and usually possessed of a certain self-confidence that is not matched by their competence.  There have been many articles and stories about them, including (but not limited to):

The Real Army Mob: The E-4 Mafia

E4 Mafia: The Real Dons of the American Military

The E4 Mafia is a real damn thing

7 unofficial rules the E4 Mafia lives by

Now, according to Task & Purpose, there's even an "official" E-4 Mafia sleeve badge for the Navy!

Behind every great warship is a junior sailor with a mustache, a beanie that may or may not get him yelled at depending on the weather or the hour, and a belligerent streak that toes the line between humor and masochism.

We give you the E-4, the everyman of the U.S. military. In this case, he is an operations specialist aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln proudly, nay, fearlessly standing watch with a vibrant patch on the right sleeve of his jacket that practically screams “Take a look, f*****.”

There's more at the link.

I, of course, being young, sweet, innocent and pure as the driven slush, was never a member of the E-4 Mafia or anything resembling it.  On the other hand, there are certain incidents in my earlier days in the military that might resemble things of which the E-4 Mafia would perhaps approve . . . but they weren't there, there were no witnesses (at least, none of higher rank than me) and the statute of limitations has expired!

Peter

He's probably right...

 

Former FBI agent Tim Clemente said last weekend:

“It’s unprecedented in a civilized society, and I think we’re becoming more and more uncivilized, sadly, with the political diatribes that are going on and the political new indictments of either candidate” ... “And sadly, the finger pointing at Trump has led to — you know — you know, the line about the blood — bloodbath, talking about the auto industry being used as if he’s going to create a bloody coup if he loses.  That — that kind of — that kind of verbiage is something you use in a third world country when you’re talking about a dictator, and that sadly has led to, I think, these attempts on Trump’s life...”

I agree.  So does Francis Porretto, who notes:

Courtesy of Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, we have the following collection of Democrat incitements to violence aimed at – who else? – Donald Trump:

Kamala Harris — repeatedly: “Trump is a threat to our democracy and fundamental freedoms.”

Kamala Harris: “It’s on us to recognize the threat [Trump] poses.”

Kamala Harris: “Does one of us have to come out alive? Ha ha ha ha!”

Joe Biden: “It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”

Joe Biden: “I mean this from the bottom of my heart: Trump is a threat to this nation.”

Joe Biden: “There is one existential threat: it’s Donald Trump.”

Joe Biden: “Trump is a genuine threat to this nation … He’s literally a threat to everything America stands for.”

Joe Biden: “Trump and MAGA Republicans are a threat to the very soul of this country.”

Joe Biden: “Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic … and that is a threat to this country.”

Tim Walz: “Are [Republicans] a threat to democracy? Yes. … Are they going to put peoples’ lives in danger? Yes.”

Gwen Walz: “Buh-bye, Donald Trump.”

There are many more similar quotations at the link.

You can't persuade me that most of the left-wing progressive establishment would not turn cartwheels of joy if President Trump were permanently removed from the political equation in this country.  I wonder if they'd be so brazen as to suggest a presidential pardon for any assassin who succeeded in doing that?

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #1,119

 

Today's award goes to a Canadian lady "seeking spiritual insight through 'ego death' " in a Colorado wilderness trip.  The award is shared with the organization that arranged her trip, which (on the basis of the report) doesn't seem to have known what it was doing.

Searchers spent four days looking for the 53-year-old last month outside Norwood. Chase was deliberately fasting as part of the experience.

. . .

"I pushed Gina more on this, looking specifically for what the desired physiological response they were seeking was as opposed to their spiritual goal," [Sergeant] Donnellon wrote in the report. "Gina told me the act of fasting does not have the desired goal of hallucinating but to causes a person to crack a little bit. Gina told me when she fasted before her solo that she was, 'Hoping nature would speak back to me.'"

But by the time she was reported missing and searchers had started to gather for the mission, Chase had been without food and water for 36 hours, according to the report. 

. . .

Another sergeant with the sheriff's office, Lane Masters, was told by an Animas Valley Institute guide that communication with the campers would be difficult. The sergeant, as recounted in the report, asked the guide for the campers' general location. He intended to send his deputies out to those locations to instruct the other campers.

The guide, Masters wrote, "pulled out a handwritten note from one camper, and read it to me. The directions were ludicrously poor, such as 'Take a left at the small meadow and walk for a while.'"

As deputies tried to contact the other campers, Masters inquired about the gear Chase had with her. He was told green, a color recommended by the Animas Valley Institute, according to Chase's husband, so Chase could "be closer to nature."

"I pointed out how stupid this was from a safety perspective," Sgt. Masters wrote in the report, "as these colors were difficult to see in wooded terrain."

He added: "(The guide) then pointed at the map where they thought the subject may be. (The guide) pointed directly to our current location in the command area, a fact which I related to her. (The guide) commented 'Oh.' I pointed out to (the guide) that this was a serious problem, the relevance of which seemed to be lost on (the guide)."

. . .

Chase, expecting to be away 10 minutes, walked away from her camp only with a whistle, space blanket, matches, and a water bottle. Left behind were her tent, sleeping bag, inflatable sleeping pad, 12 liters of water and a three-day supply of emergency food, if needed, according to the report.

. . .

Chase blew her whistle at passing helicopters that she assumed were looking for her, but the searchers did not see her nor the shiny space blanket she was keeping in the trees ... There was also a meadow a short distance away, and investigators expressed dismay that Chase did not place her space blanket or other items in the open area where they could be seen from overhead.

There's more at the link.  It's worth reading in full for the unending series of accidents, mishaps, mistakes and stupidity that nearly killed the lady.  I think she might well be described as "an accident looking for a place to happen" - and she found one!

It boggles my mind how New Age, "woke", sanity-fluid individuals so often get themselves into life-threatening situations through complete and utter inability to ask the most basic questions, get the most basic training in the environment in question, and prepare themselves in even the most basic ways.  It's as if they have some sort of death wish.  Trouble is, those who have to rescue them end up exposed to the same dangers, and sometimes suffer the consequences.

I hope the lady, and the organization that organized the "adventure", are made to pay the entire cost of the rescue mission.  A solid hit to their joint and several pocketbooks might teach them something!

Peter

"Air forces have ceased to be dominant..."

 

"...when it comes to influencing the war on the ground".  That's the conclusion of Strategy Page when it comes to modern drone warfare.  The lengthy article draws other inferences that may surprise you.  Here's an excerpt.

Ukrainians had the advantage of material and intellectual support from NATO countries. Ukraine was the first to develop and use small, innovative drone designs. These often came from civilians, who were seeking to assist friends of family members in the army. Building drones in homes or garages became a major source of drones for Ukrainian troops.

Russia adapted to their disadvantage in drone development by concentrating on electronic jammers, as well as building a lot of drones, often copying successful Ukrainian drones. By rapidly upgrading their jammer technology, Russians can disrupt a lot of new Ukrainian drone tech for a while. This disruption is becoming more important for the Russians because Ukraine has developed several generations of long range that are increasingly reaching their targets deep a thousand or more kilometers inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack. These targets include refineries and fuel storage sites as well as weapons development, manufacturing, and storage facilities. In 2023 these attacks destroyed about fifteen percent of Russian refining capacity, reducing, for months, the amount of vehicle fuel available for commercial and military users.

Air bases and ballistic missile storage or launch sites are also under attack. Targets as distant as the Russian Northern Fleet bases around Murmansk are under attack. This has caused a shortage of anti-aircraft systems that can intercept some or all of the drones depending on how many drones and air defense systems are involved.

To deal with this Ukraine has increased production of drones considerably and the objective for 2024 is two million new drones built, mostly armed ones. Halfway through 2024, the production goal is being met. These numbers are comparable to artillery ammunition production, which for Russia is estimated to be three million rounds a year. Hundreds of armed drones used in single attacks are seen as more effective than conventional tube artillery, which is now seen as a poor substitute for drones. Factories for manufacturing drones are often established in underground facilities to avoid Russian missile attacks. Nearly all the components needed for drone production are available commercially and can be purchased from European or American suppliers and imported. Custom components are manufactured locally in well protected installations. Drone quality and quantity are a Ukrainian advantage they do not want to lose.

Russia is also increasing drone production, in part because they lost their few A-50 surveillance aircraft in 2023 and since then depended on drones for surveillance. Another Russian disadvantage is their reliance on larger and more expensive surveillance and attack drones. The Russians have been quick to adapt and copy Ukrainian drone designs whenever they obtain a new one that had crash landed intact. Often all it takes is a description of a new Ukrainian drone. Russian drone manufacturers have become adept at copying Ukrainian drone designs based on minimal information. Because of this both Ukrainian and Russian troops face the same drone threat.

There's more at the link.

I wonder how an Air Force of the future will look.  Is there any reason why troops on the ground can't carry their own integrated drone support with them, launching their own UAV's to reconnoiter ground ahead, deal with enemy positions and troops, and open a way to advance?  Is an Air Force still needed to do that job?  How will its composition change to reflect that?  What about army air support?  For example, can helicopter casualty evacuation or gunship support continue in their present form?  Can an outpost be resupplied and supported by cargo drones, or will they become nothing more than targets for attack drones designed to keep their supplies from reaching the place where they're needed?

Right now everything's up in the air (literally and figuratively).  How the "rush to drones" will work itself out in the long term can't be foreseen at present.  I suspect that the advent of battlefield energy weapons - laser beams and the like, which can be fired hundreds of times at light speed without needing ammunition resupply - may neutralize drones very effectively;  but they can also be used as anti-personnel and anti-vehicle weapons, which will open even more cans of worms.

As I've said before, I'm glad my days in uniform are over.  Ground troops are going to be living in an extremely unhealthy environment, technologically speaking . . .

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 227

 

Gathered around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

Czech composer Bedřich Smetana composed a series of six symphonic poems that he collectively titled  Má vlast ("My Fatherland").  The second of these poems, Vltava, describes the river of that name (also known as "The Moldau" from the river's German name).  Smetana himself wrote of the piece:

The composition describes the course of the Vltava, starting from the two small springs, the Studená and Teplá Vltava, to the unification of both streams into a single current, the course of the Vltava through woods and meadows, through landscapes where a farmer's wedding is celebrated, the round dance of the mermaids in the night's moonshine: on the nearby rocks loom proud castles, palaces and ruins aloft. The Vltava swirls into the St John's Rapids; then it widens and flows toward Prague, past the Vyšehrad, and then majestically vanishes into the distance, ending at the Elbe.

It's become one of his best-known works, and is today a standard part of the symphonic repertoire.

I find most renditions of Vltava are too fast, which tends to obscure the haunting, delicate opening passages.  This performance by the Vienna Philharmonic, conducted by Daniel Barenboim, avoids that pitfall.

A lovely performance of a beautiful piece.

Peter