An "accidental" mid-air collision - or something potentially more dangerous?

 

I've been warning for some time (as far back as 2014) that terrorists might seek to use small unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, to collide with aircraft and cause a crash.  Although several such collisions have been reported, so far there's been no evidence of terrorist involvement - but then, there hasn't been any evidence that they weren't involved, either.  It's very much a gray area at the moment.

Now comes news out of Chicago of another drone-vs.-aircraft collision.

US authorities have disclosed that an Envoy Air Embraer 175 appeared to collide with an unmanned aerial vehicle while departing from Chicago O’Hare.

The US FAA states, in a preliminary notification, that the aircraft “struck a UAS” – an unmanned aircraft system – during a climbing left turn, as it took off from runway 09C for Detroit on 22 August.

Air-ground communications show the crew of a JetBlue Embraer 190, departing the same runway for Boston about 1min before the Envoy service, notified Chicago tower controllers of a “drone” in the area.

. . .

The [Envoy] aircraft levelled at about 6,000ft and entered an orbit before returning to O’Hare.

According to the preliminary FAA notification the jet (N242NN), operating on behalf of American Airlines, sustained only minor damage, and none of the occupants was injured.

There's more at the link.

I suppose it's possible people could be stupid enough to think it funny to fly a drone into the path of an airliner, utterly daft though that seems . . . but I can't help feeling that this remains a potentially serious danger if terrorists decide to employ it as a regular tactic.  A small, simple drone probably won't bring down an aircraft (although it's enough, as demonstrated above, to force the pilots to land again rather than proceed to their destination, causing at least economic disruption and damage).  However, what if someone were to load a pound or two of home-made explosive (PETN, already widely used by terrorists, or something similar) aboard the drone?  That would make it a far more dangerous and potentially lethal weapon.  A sudden wave of half-a-dozen such attacks at or near major airports would probably shut down US air transport altogether while the authorities tried to figure out who was behind it, and tried to deal with them.  The economic damage and disruption would be enormous.

I remain very concerned about this.  With the recent terrorist triumph in Afghanistan, I think the risk of such attacks has just become more serious.

Peter

Revealed for who and what they are

 

A personal friend wrote on social media recently:

The covid bull**** did us all a favor. I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out for a minute. All the people demanding more lockdowns, that the unvaccinated be punished, that vaccine passports be required, that mask mandates remain in place forever, and all that **** are all speaking loudly and openly about it. Those are the people who are a threat to anyone who wants to remain free. They are the people who will report your activities to the government. They are the secret police. They're the people who will expose the Jews hiding in your attic, metaphorically. Take careful note of who those people are. Smile. Be polite. Tell them nothing. Do not invite them to your home. Do not make friends with them. Watch your communications carefully when they're around, and don't talk to any of their friends or family they haven't cut off. Those people may not be quite so far gone, but they are also an information security risk, because they will casually and unthinkingly tell their friend in the secret police anything you tell them. Because of this covid disaster, we no longer have to wonder who in our local area is a threat. They have self-identified, and we should act accordingly.

I agree.  What's more, my friend is a nurse (in a very demanding area of medicine and health care), and so is fully informed (and then some) about COVID-19 and its risks, and the extent of the masquerade being played out by the so-called "authorities".

I'd like to emphasize a couple of things in what my friend said, and didn't say.

• Nowhere is it argued that we should target those who act like that.  This isn't about retaliation, or revenge, or anything aggressive.  This is about preserving our own security, keeping our own counsel, and not exposing ourselves to the risk that a "Karen" (or multiple Karens) might tell the authorities that we don't go along with their program, thereby making us more vulnerable to external pressure.
• The comments about "report your activities to the government" and "secret police" resonate with me.  That's exactly what I've seen in more than one part of the world.  The authorities don't have to blanket a town, or a region, or a nation with uniformed statist enforcers.  They only have to have enough of them to deal with known threats.  How does a threat become known?  Because somebody tells the authorities that they're a threat.  That "threat" doesn't have to be overt, or violent, or even dangerous.  Mere independent thought, mere refusal to go along with the official line, is all too often considered dangerous by those intent upon imposing their views on the rest of us.
• "Information security risk".  Another good phrase.  Unless you're in an area where you can be open about your views without endangering yourself (and in large parts of America today, you can't do that), you should (as we've said many times before in these pages) "be the gray man" (general information at these links, and more specific advice for emergencies here).  Don't do anything that makes you stand out as a potential target.  Beware the "tall poppy syndrome" when it comes to thinking for yourself.  The very fact that you do so will be seen as a threat by those who don't.

A final thought.  If you're surrounded or outnumbered by COVID-19 "Karens" in your area, or place of work, or whatever, remember that they feel safe because there are lots of them.  They draw strength from each other.  Take a leaf out of their book, and build up your own circle of like-minded people who can (and if necessary will) provide mutual support against "Karen" pressure.  Don't stand alone against the storm;  stand with, and stand by, those who'll resist it with you.  It helps.

Peter

Italian food will never taste the same again...

 

The celebrated McSweeney's Internet Tendency has turned its satirical attention to the menu at Olive Garden, a chain of Italian-style restaurants in the USA, and re-written it in the style of horror doyen H. P. Lovecraft.  Here are a couple of excerpts samples.

Fried Calamari

Tendrils crusted in grit assail my palate. Begotten of the sea, yet containing the essence of a carnival. Fried and without end. At once I feel refined and base, but melancholy grips me when I spy the dressings within which this dismembered cephalopod is to dip. A mixture resembling coagulated plasma, and the other… spicy milk? A crème, surprisingly smooth but savory. This contradictory breach of decorum and smattering of flavors inspires terror within my heart of hearts. Hope absconds from this place.

. . .

The Tour of Italy

A terse presentation of memories, three to be precise. A chicken, but unclucking. A plate of worms, wriggling in saucy terror. And then, horror unbounded, a cube of entombed layers coated in a crimson, comestible smear. Dreams fleeting and reborn, of monoliths—Pisa—floating mid-air and dripping gruel. A gurgling voice emerged from the deep, a chaos that did not speak a mortal tongue, a promise emitted: “Unlimahtated brrrrurdstihks!”

There's more at the link.  Definitely giggle-worthy!

Recently, a newer member of our North Texas Writers, Shooters and Pilots Association told us that her only exposure to Italian food had been at Olive Garden franchises.  Those of us who know more about Italian food immediately assured her that she didn't know it at all, and took her off to a local, authentically Italian restaurant to introduce her to the real thing.  It only took her a couple of mouthfuls to understand exactly what we meant!

(If any of you should visit Luigi's while passing through Wichita Falls, the food is excellent.  If you're particularly hungry, try their 24" pizza - but be warned, it's immense!  I think they keep it on their menu as a challenge for the young trainees at Sheppard Air Force Base up the road.  Leave room for their tiramisu for dessert.)

Peter

He's talking about Australia, but it might as well be the USA

 

Adam Piggott excoriates the Australian government - but he might as well be writing about America, because precisely the same contempt for its people, overweening sense of entitlement, and self-arrogation of all authority (legitimate or otherwise), appears to characterize Washington D.C., its legislators and its federal bureaucracy.

A $35K fine for sixty people who gathered in an “illegal” church worship in Sydney. A group of rescue dogs that were shot by a local council so that rescue center staff would not travel to pick them up under the guise of Covid restrictions. Police firing rubber bullets at lockdown protestors. Despotic state premiers refusing the prime minister’s call to reopen once 80% vaccination rates are achieved. Homes of Covid sufferers in South Australia to be marked so that their neighbors can rat them out to police if they breach tyrannical stay at home orders. Celebrities offered cash payments by government to promote the pro-vaccine propaganda line. The military ordered onto Sydney streets.

Why are we surprised? Did anyone think during a plague crisis, real or imagined, that our government would react in any way other than the most stupid, ineffective and damaging? Look at their prior form over the last sixty years. At all levels of government, from the federal to the state and to local councils, the results speak for themselves. A consistent rate of public failure. And underneath all, a foundation of endemic corruption.

. . .

The truth is, we hate our government. We hate their continued ability to make the wrong decision and then reward themselves for it. We hate their unrelenting meddling in our lives at every level. We hate their constant embracement of every lunatic Marxist propaganda tool that is dreamed up by the legions of traitorous public servants working to undermine and destroy our Australian culture and way of life. We hate the ridiculously high taxation rates under which we suffer and the obscene ways in which government manages to waste this money at every opportunity.

. . .

But most of all we hate the fact that they are incompetent. They are useless. They are the over-credentialed and unexperienced. They are stupid and ignorant. The sufferable ones are lazy which means that they interfere only when they have to. The bad ones are industrious in their zeal to inflict their destruction on the entire nation.

And they lie. Their capacity for mendacity is unsurpassed. Every word that leaves their traitorous lips, every sentence typed on their latest device, every thought that penetrates their thick skulls is a steaming pile of untruth. They think they are untouchable. They presume that they can do anything, that nobody would dare to raise a finger against them.

There's more at the link.

It's a magnificent rant, but the tragedy is that it's also true.  Governments have historically been generally competent enough to muddle along, but their handling of recent crises - geopolitical, military or health - has been so abysmal, all around the globe, that one can only shake one's head in disbelief.  I would never have believed it possible that so much incompetence could be demonstrated so often in so many countries by those who claim to rule.  It's gotten to the point where one expects incompetence as the norm, and is shocked by something or someone in government that actually makes sense and gets the job done.

For example, compare and contrast the US military effort at Kabul Airport with that of the British armed forces, who - in so many words - told a US general to pound sand when he asked them to suspend their excursions to rescue British citizens from the city, and remain within the perimeter.  Good for them, say I! - and I'm sure their fellow Britons are profoundly grateful to them.  Meanwhile, thousands of Americans are being told by our authorities to make their own way to Kabul Airport, if they can, but not to expect any help getting there.  I suspect a heck of a lot of them are going to end up as prisoners, hostages, or casualties.  That's all on the Biden administration's catastrophic mishandling of the situation in Afghanistan . . . but they'll never admit to that.  President Biden continues to deny any and all responsibility for what's going on there.

(On that subject, in an earlier essay titled "Do the Americans even realize that they just lost a war?", Piggot comments:  "But is Biden actually mentally retarded at this point or does his attitude reflect a general disconnect across the American political spectrum. Based on what I have seen thus far, I am beginning to suspect that it is an equal combination of both."  We do too, Mr. Piggott, we do too . . . our political class may think themselves superior, but the rest of us have rather different opinions of them.)

The latest insanity has been perpetrated by the Food and Drug Administration, which has just approved Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for general use.  This is in spite of the fact that its clinical trials won't be completed until 2023!!!  By approving it at this stage, the FDA has actively and deliberately violated US law - but nobody in authority cares about that minor detail.  Given what we know so far about the vaccine's side-effects, I have no confidence that it can be taken with impunity or guaranteed safety.  Nevertheless, our political masters (who doubtless pressured the FDA to do this) are now using that approval as an excuse to mandate the use of the Pfizer vaccine by the military, health care staff in several states, and doubtless others in due course.  I won't be surprised if they try to ban unvaccinated individuals from flying or traveling abroad - even, perhaps, interstate travel.

It's not about the disease.  It's about control.  It's about power - and it's gone to the authorities' heads, here as well as in Australia.  Given such governmental ineptness, misrule and intransigence, the people of both nations may ultimately be driven to the same solution.

Tucker Carlson points out that the problem isn't new, and isn't limited to the USA or Australia.  I highly recommend that you watch his monologue from last night, embedded below.  If it's taken down from/by YouTube, you can watch his monologue on Fox News here, and read a transcript of his remarks here.

EDITED TO ADD:  The embedded video was hacked.  Please refer to the links above to see it, or read the transcript.

If the scenes of police brutality in Australia (and there's no other word for it) shown in that video don't make your blood boil, I don't know what will.  What happened to freedom there?  And will Australians ever have the courage and determination to take back their freedom?  For their sake, I hope and pray so.

I also hope and pray that American police don't ever try to do the same thing in, at least, the freer, more responsible states and cities in this country.  If they do, things are going to get bloody.

Peter

Heh

 

Cartoonist Scott Adams, best known for his long-running Dilbert comic strip, also puts out an occasional series that he calls "Robots Read News".  It's snarkier and sometimes nearer the bone than Dilbert.

Here, from his Twitter stream, is the comic for August 19th.  Clickit to biggit.

Hard to argue with that, isn't it?

Peter

Well said, sir!

 

The Adaptive Curmudgeon has a few choice words about COVID-19, National Public Radio, and the denizens who frequent it.

I had the radio on. I’d tuned to a talk show which I was ignoring.

. . .

“A risk you take…” The radio was saying.

My curiosity was piqued. What interesting radio topic had matched my inner thoughts?

“They crawl all over you so it’s hard to stop… but it’s still a hazard to be cognizant of…”

What hazard crawls all over you? They had my full attention now.

“Your cat can get Covid from you so…”

What. The. ****!

It was NPR. G-ddammit! America’s ever-present, continuously preaching, massively woke, propaganda distribution system never sleeps.

Some unaccomplished retread was interviewing a ****ess wonder. The topic was ‘how to make sure your housecat is safe from Covid’. That’s the ‘hazard’ they were talking about. I listened a bit more just in case it was satire. Does Babylon Bee do radio?

It wasn’t satire. They were serious, or at least as serious as something that unserious can be. Does a cat owner’s vaccine protect the cat during risky behavior, like letting fluffy sit on your lap?

It’s a ****ing cat. It ****s in a box! It’ll eat a raw mouse. Cats lick their own ***** until we cut their ***** off to keep them from making more useless damn cats.

Yet, this was a “hazard”. This was “risk”. NPR’s limp, ineffectual, soyboy losers were evaluating the “physical dangers” of petting a housecat! In a world where desperate people fall off airplanes trying to flee Afghanistan, NPR used its vast network of antenna for a call-in show about how Covid might make a cat sick or the cat might inexplicably give it back to you. These people walk among us.

Can there be anything more pathetic? Some of us crash through the forest in a chaotic symphony of fear and exhilaration. Others, fear to pet a cat.

Anyone who’s so afraid of illness that they worry the cat will die… they’re completely irrelevant. Consulting their opinion is like taking advice from a houseplant. What does it know about being human? What has it done? Where has it gone? What wisdom has its unfulfilled life of photosynthesis taught it that we, the people who actually live, can use?

America is best when we ignore cessile, inert, semi-sentient, weaklings. Without the spark of life that makes the world so wonderful, they crawl up their own *** and weep while clutching cell phones. They may not know it, but they’re dead already. They’re not at the boisterous bar I just left. They’re not on the dusty mountainside where I spent a delightful afternoon. They’re not pissing in the grass under a full moon. They’re just… nothing. Being so deeply deeply deeply risk averse they’ve taken the glorious gift of life and turned it into a mockery. A lifestyle of waiting for the clock to run out.

The biggest tragedy in modern society is when we equate people who do with those that talk. Gutless losers don’t belong at the adult table with the rest of us. Don’t ask their opinion about anything. Give ‘em a juice box and a pat on the head. Then send ‘em back to their padded collegiate playpen where they can live out their days amassing debt and wallowing in fear.

There's more at the link.

Isn't it nice to find an island of sanity in the COVID-19 hysteria bombarding us from all sides?  Fortunately, there are many of them out there, if one looks.  (I hope this blog is among them, for most of you.)

As for cats and COVID, Miss D. and I have already had at least two bouts with the disease.  So far, the only reaction of our cats has been pleasure at being able to snuggle up in bed with us, and displeasure that we no longer hurry as quickly to do their bidding where milk, tuna and other pleasures (including cleaning the cat box) are concerned.  "Hey!  You!  Slow human!  Get over it, already!  We're hungry!"

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 72

 

Harvested over the past seven days.  Click any image for a larger view.

For those who don't understand the above, see here.)

More next week.

Peter

Sunday morning music

 

I've found that a lot of young people today have never heard of, or listened to the music of, many of the great names of the early days of pop and rock music.  They don't even seem curious about it.  I suppose it's for them like it was for me in my youth, being told about the music of the 1920's and 1930's - it was meaningless to me, something I didn't enjoy much.  (I've since learned to listen more attentively to the music of earlier generations, but as a teenager one doesn't bother about that - one's too wrapped up in one's own certainties.)

Be that as it may, I was still surprised to come across a couple who've never heard of the British musician known as Donovan.  He's as iconic a representative of the 1960's as the Beatles, or Simon and Garfunkel, or the Rolling Stones, and was certainly as popular as any of them in Europe (perhaps less so in the USA).  I'd say he's more emblematic of the drug-using, feel-good "hippie generation" and the "turn on, tune in and drop out" movement than any of them (not to mention the influence of Zen Buddhism and Transcendental Meditation, very big as they were in that period).  Still, his music isn't played nearly as much in America as it is in his own country, so I suppose there's some excuse for them never having heard of him.

At any rate, I thought I'd remedy that by putting up half a dozen of his best-known songs.  You'll find many more on YouTube if you look for them.  In no particular order, here we go.

How many of you were having flashbacks to your misspent youth as you heard those songs?  I certainly was . . .

Peter

Pray for those trapped in Afghanistan

 

A friend of mine is trapped in Afghanistan at present, a couple of hundred miles from the airport in Kabul.  He can't get there from where he is.  His only way out of the country is to reach one of its borders, on foot or by vehicle, through Taliban roadblocks and patrols looking for Westerners.  He's not very confident that he'll make it out.  (Understatement.)

Needless to say, this is bothering me more than somewhat. I'm just not up to blogging this morning, even a Saturday Snippet.

Please say a prayer for everyone trapped in Afghanistan at present, particularly families;  and pray that they may find a way out before it's too late.  Some have already died, or worse (if you count your children being kidnapped by extremists and disappearing without trace as worse).  More will do so in the days and weeks ahead.  They aren't only Americans, either.  There are citizens from twenty or more nations there right now.  Few of their home countries are making any attempt to get them out.

Give thanks to God that you're not there right now.

Peter

If you shoot Russian ammo, it's about to run out

 

The State Department is imposing sanctions on further imports of Russian ammunition.  Details here.

If you've relied on Tula, Wolf, Barnaul or the like to feed your 7.62x39mm AK-47 or SKS, or used their steel-case handgun ammo as a cheap-shooting option, what you've got on hand is all you'll get.  In the few hours since the announcement was made, all the online ammo vendors I've just checked have suddenly sold out of them.  SGAmmo is still listing old, corrosive Yugoslav 7.62x39mm. ammo, which will work fine if you clean your gun carefully after every use - but if there's an ammo panic, it won't last long.  Get it while you can.

(I'm not worried. I've got mine.)

Peter

Learning from history about fighting with a blade

 

I recently came across a fascinating Web site called "HEMA Misfits (I don't do longsword)".  It's by Maxime Chouinard, a Canadian who styles himself a "Historical Martial Arts Researcher".  He says of himself:

I created this blog as a source of materials and articles on Historical Martial Arts that do not get as much attention as they should. After visiting many forums, groups and blogs, I found that subjects pertaining to arts outside the Medieval and Renaissance quickly got drowned in the overwhelming discussions on longsword, creating a sort of vicious circle where certain arts get more and more popular because information about them is easily available. I also found myself explaining over and over to people at HEMA events that I was not practicing longsword, which inspired the name for this blog. Although the Kunst Des fechtens and related arts are quite interesting -and that I encourage anyone to try them – there are many others which deserve to be better known.

. . .

HMA: Historical Martial arts are combat arts, games and sports recreated from documentation, experimentation or handed down through tradition and which have a deep historical relevance. I use HMA instead of HEMA (Historical European Martial Arts) as I do not only write on the arts of the old continent.

To give you an idea of what he covers, three articles that I've recently read with great interest include:

• Duffing rascals: What is La canne?  (It's the French discipline of cane fighting.)
• “Six Inches of Steel”: Bowie Knife Instruction by Louis Juan Ohnimus.  (From an 1890 article published in San Francisco.)
• Very Perilous: A sword wounds compendium by the surgeon Ravaton.  (A treatise dating back to 1768 on the treatment of sword wounds, by a French military surgeon.)

There are many more articles of interest.  I think I'll be reading through the archives for at least months to come, if not years.

The Web site is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in any type of blade fighting, as techniques from one type often carry over to another.  It's also fascinating as an historical treatise on blade (and other) wounds, their effects, and their treatment.  Finally, for writers, it's a cornucopia of historically accurate information on how people in various ages defended themselves or attacked their enemies.  (That's how I came across it, by doing a search for information about historical treatment of wounds, in connection with a book I'm writing.)

Altogether a very useful and informative resource, and highly recommended.

Peter

*SIGH* . . . Why am I not surprised???

 

The Catholic Church hierarchy continues to shoot itself in its collective foot (or should that be feet?) on a regular basis.

Pope Francis accepted the resignation of the Bishop of São José do Rio Preto on Wednesday, five days after a sexually explicit video of the bishop was shared on the internet.

. . .

On Aug. 13, a minute-long video of Bishop Ferreira da Silva on a video call with another man began making the rounds on social media. In the video the bishop, wearing a striped polo shirt, is seen masturbating.

. . .

Bishop Ferreira da Silva reportedly told the Brazilian network Globo that he is the person in the video, and he believed that its release was an act of revenge porn by someone with whom he lives. He told Brazilian media that he would be speaking to his attorney as well as Brazil’s state police force to determine how the video was released.

This is not Bishop Ferreira da Silva’s first brush with controversy, and he has been investigated multiple times by the Vatican for alleged sexual misconduct or for covering up sexual misconduct.

There's more at the link.

If there were previous incidents involving this Bishop, why the heck didn't his fellow Bishops in Brazil insist that he step down or be moved aside while a more thorough investigation was done?  Why did it take a revenge porn video (if that's what it was) to have him removed?  For that matter, why did the Vatican not act more swiftly or more decisively, given such a history?  How many more Brazilian Bishops - and their clergy - are complicit in this sort of behavior?

The hierarchy of the Catholic Church have ducked, and dived, and weaseled their way out of doing something concrete about this sort of behavior for decades (probably for a lot longer than that, if truth be told).  In tolerating that, the Catholic Church as a whole has abdicated its moral authority.  It can no longer condemn anything as immoral, because it has become immoral in itself - at least, from a human perspective.  Theologically, Christ is not and can never be immoral, but the human side of the Church has grown rather too fond of proclaiming that as some sort of excuse for its own collective fallibility.

Faithful Catholics who are trying to live a life of Biblical, traditional morality have my entire sympathy.  I know full well the betrayal they feel when they read reports like this, because I was betrayed as well.

May Almighty God have mercy on his wounded, sinful church, and rebuild her according to His will.  I suspect another, and more thorough, Temple cleansing may have to be involved.  As for those who have betrayed her, and reduced her to this state . . . yes, I'll even pray for forgiveness for them too, because I have enough on my conscience that I'll need forgiveness just as much (albeit for different sins).  I'm just not sure how effective my prayers will be in their case, because I see no sign of repentance.  When a disgraced cleric blames "revenge porn" instead of acknowledging his own guilt, it speaks volumes.

Peter

About Taiwan's microchip production...

 

Yesterday I mentioned that, in the light of Chinese belligerence towards Taiwan:

If I were a US manufacturer reliant on computer chips from Taiwan, which makes about half the world's supply, I'd be begging, borrowing and stealing any and all supplies I could get out of there before the invasion.

Reader Andrew D. sent me the following comment via e-mail. He's allowed me to share it with you.

I thought you might be interested in an assessment of the likely future acquisition of Taiwan by China from a different perspective.

I am an electrical engineer, and work in the particular niche area of designing integrated circuits.  Every part I've worked on in the last 25 years has wound up being fabricated at TSMC.  They aren't 'just a chip company'.  They are the 800-lb gorilla in the IC industry.  They make a huge fraction of the world's chips, and have gotten to that position because they are very, very good at what they do.  We haven't used the TSMC factory because we like them, but because they are so good at what they do that they are the compelling option.  They consistently deliver product on time and to specification.

When people talk about Taiwan, I occasionally hear them mention TSMC as a minor concern.  From my perspective in the electronics field, China acquiring Taiwan is a minor concern, but China acquiring TSMC would be world-shattering.

Chip foundries are incredibly expensive, and it takes a bunch of highly skilled people to get one working.  Not only are they expensive, but the equipment is very fickle.  Fickle as in 'the three secret factors that affect this ion implanter are the barometric pressure, the phase of the moon, and the mood of your mother-in-law.'  Without both motivated and experienced workers and equipment in good condition, there is no working fab.

If China invades Taiwan, then you can be fairly certain that some fraction of the TSMC foundries will be shut down, either by accidents on the part of the Chinese military, or action on the part of Taiwanese partisans.  Drop a bomb on a fab and you might as well just build a new one from scratch.

Pretty much everything electronic that you own that has one or more chips in it fabricated at TSMC.  Even if most of the ICs come out of Samsung or Hynix, there will almost always be at least one part from TSMC.  If you have 99 of the 100 chips needed to make an iPad, then you can't make an iPad.  If China takes over Taiwan, then they will basically control the entire world's supply of electronics.

Particularly for the newer fine-line processes, building a fab line involves many billions of dollars and 3-5 years of construction.  Getting one running well requires hundreds of workers highly skilled in very specialized areas.  Even if we had the committment and available experience, it would be years before we could have any alternatives to TSMC.

In short, my assessment is as follows.  If China invades Taiwan, then:

1) In the immediate future the supply of basically everything dependent on electronics (TV's, microwaves, automobiles, air conditioners, computers, etc.) will dry up.

2) If we are lucky and not much of TSMC is damaged, then we might start getting new electronic-dependent products in 6-12 months

3) If we are not lucky and the TSMC fabs are destroyed, then we might start getting new elecronic-dependent products in 5-8 years

4) If China has control of a functional TSMC, then:

a) they will be able to control who gets what when it comes to electronic-dependent products (which is basically everything)

b) every company that manufactures parts through TSMC will have to decide whether they want to provide the Chinese government with their intellectual properties

5) Alternative fabs will get constructed in other companies, and in 5-10 years we will start having other options than TSMC.

Sobering stuff, isn't it?  Thanks, Andrew, for sharing that with us.

Peter

The progressive Taliban and how they're radicalizing our children

 

City Journal recently published an astonishing article about the progressive takeover of Portland, Oregon, and how it's producing radicalized children who are indoctrinated almost from birth.  The scary thing is that such ideologies are spreading to other cities too - perhaps including your own.

There are only a few places on earth where radicals and their children ritualistically burn the American flag and chant “Death to America”: Tehran, Baghdad, Beirut, Kabul, Ramallah—and Portland, Oregon.

. . .

Famously the “whitest city in America,” Portland has become the unlikely headquarters of race radicalism in the United States. The city has elevated white guilt into a civic religion; its citizens have developed rituals, devotions, and self-criticisms to fight “systemic racism” and “white supremacy.” The culminating expression of this orthodoxy is violence: street militias, calling themselves “antiracists” and “antifascists,” smash windows and torch the property of anyone transgressing the new moral law.

We might be tempted to dismiss this as the work of a few harmless radicals “keeping Portland weird,” but in recent years, their underlying ideology on race has become institutionalized ... local schools have designed a program of political education for their students that borders on propaganda.

. . .

We can best understand the political education program in Portland schools by dividing it into three parts: theory, praxis (or practice), and power. The schools have self-consciously adopted the “pedagogy of the oppressed” as their theoretical orientation, activated it through a curriculum of critical race theory, and enforced it through the appointment of de facto political officers within individual schools, generally under the cover of “equity and social-justice” programming. In short, they have begun to replace education with activism.

The results are predictable. By perpetuating the narrative that America is fundamentally evil, steeping children in race theory, and lionizing the Portland rioters, they have consciously pushed students in the direction of race-based “revolution.” In the language of the Left, the political education programs in Portland-area districts constitute a “school-to-radicalism pipeline”: a training ground for child soldiers. This is not hyperbole: some of the most active and violent anarchist groups in Portland are run by teenagers, and dozens of minors were arrested during last year’s riots.

. . .

What is the solution to pathological whiteness? According to Un and the Tigard-Tualatin School District, the answer lies with a new form of “white identity development.” In a series of “antiracist resources” provided to teachers, the Department of Equity and Inclusion includes a handful of strategies for this identity transformation, intended to “facilitate growth for white folks to become allies, and eventually accomplices, for anti-racist work.” Couched in the language of professional development, the process assumes that whites are born “racist,” even if they “don’t purposely or consciously act in a racist way.” The first step in the training document is “contact,” defined as confronting whites with “active racism or real-world experiences that highlight their whiteness.” The goal is to provoke an emotional rupture that brings the subject to the next step, “disintegration,” in which he or she feels intense “white guilt” and “white shame,” and admits: “I feel bad for being white.” The training then outlines a process of moving white subjects from a state of “reintegration” to “pseudo-independence” to “immersion” to “autonomy.”

In the early stages, activities include “attending a training, joining an allies group, participating in a protest.” Later, white subjects are told to analyze their “covert white supremacy,” host “difficult conversations with white friends and family about racism,” and use their “privilege to support anti-racist work.” At the final stage, trainers plumb their subjects’ individual psyches to ensure that their “whiteness” has been banished. Subjects must answer a series of questions to demonstrate their commitment: “Does your solidarity make you lose sleep at night? Does your solidarity put you in danger? Does your solidarity cost you relationships? Does your solidarity make you suspicious of predominantly white institutions? Does your solidarity have room for Black rage?”

This is a pedagogy not of education but of revolution.

There's more at the link.

I'm hearing from parents in several parts of the country that elements of this educational philosophy are creeping into their areas.  We've all heard about the radicalized Loudon County School Board in Virginia, but it's far from the only place where that's happening.

The thing is, this is happening under the noses of parents who are abandoning the responsibility to educate their children to schools, rather than making sure they get a thorough grounding in life, the universe and everything at home.  It's no wonder radicalized youth actually believe it's OK to throw Molotov cocktails at police - they've been indoctrinated to believe that police are oppressors, not protectors.

I hope and pray that all the parents reading this blog have more sense than to trust schools to raise their children.  That remains a parental responsibility, and can't be fobbed off onto anyone else.  If it is . . . we can't blame others if we don't like the results.  It's our fault, for abdicating our responsibility into their hands.

Peter

The searing anger of those who know the truth about Afghanistan

 

Combat Flipflops is a company started by military veterans who wanted to make a difference in the world's combat zones.  They use their profits to help educate women, de-mine areas infested with minefields, and generally try to help rebuild societies that have been shattered by violence.  My wife is one of their customers.

In Afghanistan, they supported the education of thousands of girls who would otherwise have been deliberately left in ignorance by religious fundamentalists.  From their Web site:

Aid Afghanistan for Education (AAE) provides education to marginalized Afghan women and girls over the age of ten who are denied access to a formal education. Currently serving 3,000 girls and 104 boys, AAE is guided by the indomitable spirit of Afghan women and children who, despite over 30 years of war and violence, are determined to build a bright and prosperous future for themselves and their families.

I daresay that work has now been destroyed.  I can't see the Taliban allowing it to continue.

The founder of Combat Flipflops served in Afghanistan, and understands its problems intimately.  To say he's furious about the Biden administration's mishandling of the situation there is a massive understatement.  The company's latest corporate blog entry is explosively expressive.  Here's an excerpt.

Written in Taliban

The first time I saw you was in the Khyber pass.  You came with your technology, elite fighters fueled by revenge, and the hubris to believe you could disprove history.

This was a war that you didn’t have the stomach to fight.  But I’m glad you tried.

We bled you the same way we bled the Soviets in our Holy Land.  We bled you the same way the Vietnamese bled you in their home land.  We did it patiently and deliberately.

Patience.  Something Westerners never learn.

Our history is millennial.  We don’t yearn for an early victory when the Infidel ravages our Holy Land.  Our victory is celebrated decades from now.  We’ve endured, then ravaged every standing military that crossed our borders.   Why?  How?  We’re patient.

In 30 days, we’ll be stronger, richer, and have control over precious natural resources that you need for your pathetic life dictated by comfort.  We will have women, riches, land, guns, and ownership of one of the greatest chapters in military history.

You lose.

. . .

We will give your fighters credit.  Some are creative, tenacious, and fierce. They outgun us in every way possible.  But again, we simply wait them out.  Allah is patient.  You cycle them through our Holy Lands every 3 to 12 months for their combat rotations.  After their tour is complete, they return to the comfort of their warm beds and endless entertainment.  If you left them here, in our Holy Land, with no way out but to win, then you might of have had a chance of success.  The longer you poisoned our Holy Land with your presence, your “rules of engagement” only strengthened our position. There is only one rule in war - that is to win.

Your commanders made you fight with your hands tied behind your back. Your rules also confused our fighters too.  “We’re clearly the enemy; why are they letting us go?”  Thank you for your compassion as it allowed our fighters to kill more Infidels.  We began to feel as if your commanders were on our side.  We’re thankful your most vicious dogs were never allowed off their leash.

Your showcase Generals make us laugh.  You spend millions of dollars flying them around our country, inventing new ways to win while ignoring the guidance of our most capable foes.  Your Generals make decisions to minimize risk to their fragile reputation with the ultimate goal of securing a lucrative retirement--jobs with suppliers that fuel your losing force. A self-serving circle that’s built on the backs of your youngest and most naive fighters.

Your retired Generals “earn” tens of thousands of dollars talking to your political, industrial, and financial leaders about “teams, winning, and discipline.”  It’s a mockery of the war they refused to fight.  It’s a mockery of the Infidel warriors who died in our lands. We urge you to continue following their vacuous personalities so we can further watch your once great nation collapse.

Your statesman and elected officials are spineless, narcissistic, and more cowardly than your Generals.  They crave power over you above all else.  They come to our country, hide behind blast walls, and only heed the word of the indigenous leader they put in power.   I believe your soldiers call this a “self licking ice cream cone.”

. . .

Over the next few months, we will make the world understand that you failed worse than any fighting force that’s ever invaded our lands.  Today we celebrate victory.

There's more at the link.  Go read the whole thing.

I'm hearing similar expressions of anger, fury, disgust, contempt and all the rest from Afghanistan veterans of my acquaintance.  I'd say most of them feel personally betrayed by the actions (or lack thereof) of the Biden administration.  Interestingly, that applies across the political spectrum.  It's not just those with right-wing or Republican views who feel that way;  Democrats, even one or two fairly intense progressive leftists, feel that way too.  They believe their friends died in vain, that the wounded and maimed were crippled for no good reason, and that they're so much cannon fodder in the eyes of the current powers that be - including the senior commanders of the US military.

And they're very, very angry about that.

I suspect the Biden administration's failure in Afghanistan may have domestic political repercussions in a way the progressive left doesn't yet understand, and aren't going to like at all.  It's awakened people to what happens when you allow a bunch of ideologically blinkered incompetents to run your country.

It's going to be interesting to watch the fallout, domestically and abroad.

Speaking of fallout, Bryan Wright, a former CIA officer, has serious concerns about what's going to happen next after our Afghanistan debacle.  He writes in a series of tweets, consolidated here by Threadreader for ease of reading.

Former US intelligence colleagues are angry and deeply worried at what has happened in Afghanistan.

Here's what I'm hearing, and why there's nearly universal belief that America and the world are in for one of the most dangerous, unpredictable times in modern history.

. . .

America's Elites are trash. 

China knows it.

They will become emboldened, covertly & overtly. War over Taiwan and contested islands in the S. China Sea and E. China Sea is now more likely.

Russia will consider similar covert & overt moves, focused on Crimea, & former Soviet satellites. 

The fear is that China & Russia will act in concert.

. . .

But who will trust America after Afghanistan?

Who believes we have the leadership to use our military might well?

Who will trust us when we say "We Will Stand With You"? 

. . .

The existential problem is that America needs good leadership to right its ship but there is none.

. . .

The above threats by China, Russia, & Co will metastasize well before the 2024 elections, and even a heroic new President will need years to clean things up.

Again, our enemies and allies know this. 

Upshot: There is fear and outrage streaming through former intel officers over the Afghanistan debacle.

America is rudderless. And the world now knows it.

Grave dangers lie ahead, some predictable, others unimaginable.

Again, more at the link.

I agree with Mr. Wright.  The old cliche about "Nature abhorring a vacuum" applies in geopolitics as much as anywhere else.  The USA has just demonstrated that its leadership is incompetent, feckless and clueless.  Rival powers are not going to be slow to take advantage - to "make hay while the sun shines".  They want to grab all they can before our President is replaced by someone competent, who'll respond more forcefully and more capably to their shenanigans.

If I were a resident of Taiwan right now, I'd be packing my bags and looking for an exit as fast as I could.  (If I were a US manufacturer reliant on computer chips from Taiwan, which makes about half the world's supply, I'd be begging, borrowing and stealing any and all supplies I could get out of there before the invasion.). If I were in a country anywhere near China or the South China Sea - and that would include Australia - I'd be battening down the hatches, metaphorically speaking, and bracing for a geopolitical storm.  If I were in Ukraine, I'd be preparing for an actual Russian military invasion of the Donbas area, whether open or covert, to annex it and add it to their existing gains in the Crimea.  If I were in Western Europe, largely dependent as it is on Russian natural gas to get through the winter, I'd be standing by for shortages as Russia uses its energy resources as a geopolitical weapon.

And it's all down to the Biden administration, which took power illegitimately following massive electoral fraud in November 2020 - and is living up down to that illegitimacy on a daily basis.

Peter

Time to stock up - here come the shortages again

 

Following on from my post yesterday about our current situation, particularly where I quoted Daisy Luther's warning about shortages of consumer goods, this week I've been going through my family's preparations for emergencies, checking that we have everything essential, and replacing or re-stocking in areas where we might be short.  It's been an educational experience.  I've shopped at our local Sams Club and two Walmart stores (so far), and this is what I've found "on the ground".

• Toilet paper:  Sams Club had bulk packs of the stuff, but only three pallets on the floor, and they were being denuded as I watched.  In the (literally) less than a minute I was within view of them, at least ten packs were taken by shoppers.  Unless they were resupplied last night, I expect they'll be out by today.  Walmart's shelves were not well stocked;  they weren't (yet) limiting shoppers on quantity, but a manager whom I asked about it said they're considering imposing purchase limits on toilet paper, paper towels, bottled water, etc.
• Paper towels:  Sams Club had plenty, in multiple brands - at least ten full pallets on the floor.  Walmart had more paper towels than toilet paper, but not by much.
• Bottled water:  Sams Club had plenty of flats of 16oz. bottles.  Walmart was in short supply of those, and most of the one-gallon bottles were gone.
• Canned tomatoes:  I was astonished to see how sparsely filled Walmart's shelves were.  This is a pretty basic food item, but it's hard to find in quantity right now.  I daresay there were no more than five or six full flats (12 cans) of any variety of tomato, and most of those were house brand or off-brand.  "Quality" brands were in very short supply.  I needed half a dozen cans of each of four different varieties to top up our pantry, and couldn't find all I wanted.
• Canned beans:  There were only a few dozen cans in an otherwise very empty section at Walmart - it's several feet long, and usually solidly packed top to bottom, but not this time.  Black, navy and pinto beans were available in small quantities, but no kidney beans, no garbanzos, no chili beans.  On the other hand, there were plenty of baked and BBQ beans.
• Dry beans:  Extremely short supply.  There were almost none of the 2-pound packages at Wal-Mart (3 Navy and two Black beans that I could see), and no more than a dozen or so of each of the 1-pound packs.
• Flour:  Again, very sparsely stocked shelves at Walmart.  The big packs were almost all gone, as were the medium-sized packs.  Small, one- and two-pound packs were available, but in lesser quantities than I'm used to seeing there.
• Pickles:  There were precisely four jars of banana pickles left, and a gaping void where the rest had been.  Regular pickles were available, but in short supply.
• Ketchup:  I wouldn't have believed that many brands would be out of stock at Walmart, but they were.  I had to struggle to find a couple of plastic bottles of Hunt's (which I like because it doesn't use high-fructose corn syrup), and eventually found three, right at the back of a low-down shelf.
• Canned mushrooms:  Almost non-existent.  I found some, but again, the area where they're normally shelved was just about empty around them.
• Ethnic (Mexican) food section:  This was well stocked, but the quantities of each brand were limited.  There might be a three-foot row of taco seasonings, but there would be a dozen brands in it, most unknown to me.  The better-known, more popular brands were in short supply.
• Canned meat (beef, chicken, fish, etc.):  Available at Walmart, but in lesser quantities than before, with a poor selection of brands.  Prices were rather higher than I'm used to paying.  Sams Club had a decent supply of larger packages (i.e. packs of 8 cans of tuna, or four of chicken).  Walmart was almost out of canned chili across all brands, with or without beans.  The normally well-filled Chef Boyardee shelves looked as though a plague of hungry locusts had passed through.  Clearly, people are getting ready to eat out of cans.
• Coffee:  Very poor selection at Walmart, and not much on the shelves.  I bought a couple of jars of good-quality instant coffee, the last they had (in an emergency, it's a lot better than nothing!), but they don't know when they'll be getting more of it.  Sams Club only had Folgers - even its house brand was out of stock, which is very unusual in my experience.

Overall, I'd say the shelves were less than half as well stocked as they were a month ago, and in some sections it looked like an army of ants had picked them clean.  Basics such as toilet paper, paper towels and bottled water are already showing the effects of consumer demand and diminishing supply.

Miss D. and I strive for a "deep pantry", with at least a dozen or so cans of all essential ingredients and a well-filled freezer.  That's enough to give us two to three months of decent meals, if we use them carefully.  If that runs out (which, of course, we hope will never happen), it'll be rice and beans, or for variety's sake, beans and rice.  I've now topped up our "deep pantry".  If you haven't done that lately, you might want to do something about it before everyone else does.

I think Daisy Luther's reminder is prescient:

Think back to when the outbreak began to come to the public eye. It only took two days for the shelves to become nearly bare. Here are some pictures as a reminder. It would be pretty foolish to wait until the rest of the country becomes aware and there’s another run on things ... I have a feeling that the supply chain isn’t going to bounce back this time around, at least not very quickly. Think about anything you might need to repair or replace that is made in China, and if you can afford it, get the parts and items you may need.

Words to the wise, particularly in the light of the latest supply chain blow from China.

(Don't forget toiletries and personal hygiene, either.  My wife's preferred brand of sanitary napkins were completely out of stock at both Walmart stores and at Sams Club, and the denture fixative I prefer was also unavailable at all of them.  Some brands of deodorant were conspicuous by their absence.  I took the opportunity to restock our cold and flu medications as well, just in case;  last time around, they were very hard to find for a while.)

Peter

What a magnificent photograph!

 

Found on Gab yesterday (clickit to biggit):

What a magnificent shot!  Talk about being in the right place at the right time - and having the skill and talent to translate location into opportunity.  I don't know who took it, but I'll gladly provide credit if the photographer contacts me.

Peter