The convoluted world of international arms deals

 

It's been reported that Turkey is to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft from Britain.

It is the largest fighter jet export deal in almost two decades and will support thousands of jobs across the UK for years to come, the government said.

. . .

The Eurofighter jets are jointly produced by Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain, and the deal was subject to approval from the other members of the consortium.

About 37% of each jet's production takes place in the UK, including final assembly at BAE Systems plants in Warton and Samlesbury in Lancashire.

The government said the deal would support 6,000 jobs at the two BAE plants, 1,100 in south-west England, including at the Rolls-Royce plant in Bristol, and 800 in Scotland.

It is the first new order of UK Typhoons since 2017.

Describing the agreement as the "biggest jets export deal in a generation", defence secretary John Healey said it would "pump billions of pounds into our economy and keep British Typhoon production lines turning long into the future".

There's more at the link.

What struck me at once was the minuscule size of the order.  Twenty fighter aircraft is a drop in the bucket compared to the Turkish Air Force's existing combat aircraft fleet, which includes well over 200 F-16's.  Furthermore, if the quoted figures are accurate, an ₤8 billion order averages out to a cost per plane of ₤400 million apiece - a ridiculously high amount, even if it includes future support and training expenditure.  To make matters even more confusing, Turkey is developing its own stealth fighter to replace its F-16's in due course.  The Typhoons are no better technology than the F-16 - so why buy them?  What's going on?

The answer is convoluted.

• Turkey has long been interested in using the Typhoon's power plant, the Eurojet EJ200 engine, in its Kaan fighters.  Based on a Rolls-Royce design, the latter company offered to help Turkey develop its own derivative of the EJ200 for the new fighter.  That agreement was derailed through political squabbles.  Initial prototypes of the Kaan will use US-sourced engines, and a locally-manufactured engine will power production models.  By buying Typhoons now, Turkey will gain access to European-standard engines and technology that can be used to train its pilots, engineers and technicians ahead of widespread introduction of the Kaan in due course;  and it can reverse-engineer Typhoon technology to improve its domestic equivalent products.  It will thus have access to both American and NATO-standard hardware and software.
• Turkey is trying to improve relations with other European nations, particularly given the geopolitical pressures caused by its involvement in Syria and other Middle Eastern nations.  By effectively "bribing" the British government with a massive arms order, it probably expects British diplomatic and economic pressure over Middle Eastern issues to decrease.
• The Typhoon is an aircraft type that has never seen combat in the Middle East.  Israel knows the capabilities of American combat aircraft very well, since it flies them in its own air force.  It may be that Turkey figures a different style of aircraft, with different electronics and systems, might give it an edge if it comes to a shooting conflict over Syria or elsewhere.

I get the feeling that Turkey is following Qatar's example.  Qatar is a tiny island nation in the Persian Gulf, but operates one of the most sophisticated air forces anywhere.  It flies Eurofighter Typhoons, US F-15's and French Rafale aircraft.  It's ridiculous to operate so many types of diverse aircraft in relatively small numbers, but that's not the point.  By spending tens of billions of dollars on such technology, Qatar is effectively buying influence in the nations that sell them.  They'll be less likely (Qatar hopes) to put pressure on that nation to support Middle Eastern initiatives it doesn't like, and less likely to approve Israeli action against Qatar for its ongoing support of Middle Eastern terrorist movements like Hamas and Hezbollah.  Instead of asking "What's the right thing to do?", diplomats from supplier countries will be forced to ask "What will it cost us in terms of sales and support of defense technology if we allow this or don't allow that?"  It's yet another example of "follow the money".

Effectively, Turkey is trying to lock the UK into the same kind of deal.  "We'll pay you well above the odds for a few fighters, provided you shut up about sensitive issues in the Middle East that affect us."  Furthermore, the current British government has made such a flaming mess of running the country that it's desperate for funds from anywhere, so it'll be more than willing to be "bribed" like this.

There's a distinctly distasteful odor about this arms deal . . .

Peter