Memes that made me laugh 303

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

What is artificial intelligence? Here are some answers.

 

Following several recent articles about artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on our jobs, our society and our future, a number of readers have contacted me asking for more information on a very basic level.  For example, what is AI?  Is it, in fact, intelligence - or just a computer program acting as if it were intelligent?  Does AI mean that we're living in something like the Matrix's simulated reality?

Let me offer two relatively easy-to-understand avenues for further reading.  First, Fox News has a category called Artificial Intelligence.  It contains current and recent news articles dealing with the subject, plus a sidebar of basic information about what AI is, how it works, its history and its dangers.

Second, Wikipedia has a more academic article about AI.  It's not as easy to read or understand, but it repays careful attention.  Of particular value are the links it provides to articles and Web sites that further explain aspects of AI.  I don't trust Wikipedia as a sole-source authority, but I think it's a great start for further reading.

I recommend both links for further reading.  Hope this helps.

Peter

The look I'm getting right now...

 

... from Kili, our elderly owner of the house pet.  (The photo isn't Kili, but the expression on her face is identical!  A tip o' the hat to Midwest Chick for the image.)

In my case, the look isn't because I'm offering her salad:  it's because I pulled the wrong container out of the fridge.  She expects a dollop of milk and/or half-and-half and/or sour cream now and again, and I didn't produce any of them!

Who's in charge around here, anyway?  She knows - it's just that her dumb human servants keep getting it wrong!

Peter

Will the Iran conflict draw in other nations? It's beginning to look likely...

 

We've heard rumors that Kurds in other Middle Eastern nations - Iraq, Syria and even possibly Turkey - may support Iranian Kurds if they stage an uprising to make their enclave independent of Iran.  Some fear that's a pipe dream that will never materialize (see, for example, this article from the Daily Telegraph).  Others think there's more to it.  In particular, Larry Lambert (who blogs at Virtual Mirage) has been to Iraqi Kurdistan recently, and is an adviser to its leaders (see his detailed background article for more information).  In a comment to a recent article by Lawdog, he had this to say.

I've been to Kurdistan, spoken with the Barzanis within the year, and worked there, so there is credibility to the extent that my observations are valid. I didn't travel to Iran to meet with the Iranian Kurds. As you point out, all of the Kurdish regions in Syria, Turkey, Barzani and Talibani in Iraq, and the Kurds in Iran have different political bents and different tribal affiliations. Some are hardcore opium growers and marketers, some have more oil, and in all cases, they are "Assyrians" culturally, which separates them from Arabs and Persians. Israel gets along with the Kurds more than just in an enemy of my enemy framework.

I'm certain that the Trump Administration promised the Kurds their "freedom" in exchange for "boots on the ground." Having run with them recently, that is the promise that would turn the trick. The US forces recently withdrawn from Syria were redeployed to Erbil to backfill for the Peshmerga who had deployed. The huge base in Erbil rarely makes the news, but it is significant, and the just-opened US Consulate in Erbil is the largest in the world.

. . .

... an open US recognition of a Kurdish state as free and independent will drop a turd in the punch.

There's more at the link.

So, it appears to be more than a remote possibility that Iranian Kurds, probably supported to a certain extent by Kurds from across the Middle East, may indeed rise up against the Iranian government.  What makes this even more likely are developments in Azerbaijan, on Iran's northern border.  The BBC reports:

Azerbaijan has said it is pulling its diplomatic staff out of Iran after it accused Iran of launching four drones across the border into the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan ... Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev condemned the "act of terror", demanding an explanation and apology from Tehran.

On Friday he went further, announcing the withdrawal of staff from Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran and consulate in Tabriz "for their own safety", and state media said the military had been placed on maximum combat readiness.

Aliyev also touched on Iran's ethnic Azerbaijani population on Thursday - a sensitive subject for Tehran ... his anger went beyond words, saying that "independent Azerbaijan is a place of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran".

Baku has long avoided this line because of how sensitive it is for Tehran.

Iran is home to an estimated 20-25 million ethnic Azeris, who make up its largest minority group and are concentrated in the north-west along the Azerbaijan border.

The Islamic Republic has consistently regarded their identity and political affiliations as issues of utmost sensitivity. Tehran views any notion of Azerbaijani identity extending beyond its borders as a potential challenge to internal unity.

Aliyev has rarely spoken about Iranian Azeris in such explicitly aspirational terms and doing so now appears to be a calculated move.

. . .

[Iranian Azeris] are also a politically significant community. This week the exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, has been urging Iranian Azerbaijanis, among other ethnic minorities, to rise up against the regime.

. . .

Despite their shared Shia Muslim identity, Iran and Azerbaijan have grown apart politically, and tensions worsened after Azerbaijan's military victories in the 2020 and 2023 Karabakh wars, which were helped by Turkish and Israeli-made weapons.

Iran views Baku's close defence partnership with Israel as a serious threat.

Iranian officials and media have repeatedly accused Azerbaijan of helping Israeli intelligence operate along Iran's northern frontier - claims Azerbaijan denies.

Azerbaijan's ties with Israel extend beyond security. Israel relies heavily on Azerbaijani oil, and the two countries maintain close political and intelligence co-operation.

For Tehran, this collaboration is at the centre of its suspicion.

Azerbaijan, for its part, has long resented Iran's political and military support for neighbouring Armenia, seeing it as direct interference in a conflict central to its own security.

That history of mistrust is an important backdrop to Thursday's escalation, shaping how Baku interprets every move coming from Tehran.

. . .

Aliyev's decision to talk openly of Azerbaijan being a "place of hope" for Iranian Azeris introduces a new and potentially unpredictable element.

Aliyev has pointed out to Tehran that he was the sole foreign leader to visit any Iranian embassy to express condolences following the killing of Khamenei, and that he personally responded to a request to help evacuate Iranian embassy staff from Lebanon.

Now, he says, Iran has repaid those gestures with drone strikes on Azerbaijani territory, something he views as a deep betrayal.

Again, more at the link.

The Associated Press added more details.

President Ilham Aliyev accused Iran of carrying out “a groundless act of terror and aggression,” and said his military has been told to prepare and implement retaliatory measures. The Caspian Sea nation halted truck traffic across the nearly 700-kilometer (over 400-mile) border with Iran.

. . .

[Aliyev] said Azerbaijan’s military has been instructed “to prepare and implement retaliatory measures.”

The Defense Ministry vowed that Iran’s “attacks will not go unanswered,” adding it was preparing the “necessary response” to protect “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country, ensure the safety of civilians and civilian infrastructure.” It didn’t elaborate.

Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan “is not participating in operations against Iran -– neither previously nor this time -– and will not do so.”

He added: “We have neither interest in conducting any operations against neighboring countries, nor does our policy allow it.”

More at the link.

I need hardly point out that "not participating in operations against Iran" doesn't exactly square with the Azerbaijani military's being "instructed to prepare and implement retaliatory measures".  Cognitive dissonance, much?

Furthermore, if Iranian Kurds rise up against the government, consider what Iranian Azeris might do.  After all, many of their ethnic leaders have been oppressed by the Iranian government, including imprisonment, harassment, censorship and other measures.  Regardless of what the Azerbaijan government does, perhaps some Iranian Azeris might be inspired by a Kurdish uprising to launch one of their own;  and if they do, can Azerbaijan - which regards itself as the homeland and leader of all Azeris - stand idly by and do nothing, thereby potentially threatening its self-proclaimed ethnic leadership?

Finally, note that US Vice-President Vance is currently visiting both Armenia and Azerbaijan, two nations that recently fought a war with each other and are still at daggers drawn.  If the threat of renewed hostilities between them can be negotiated away, or at least reduced, that will allow Azerbaijan to focus its attention - and its military - elsewhere . . . towards Iran, perhaps?  Might Vice-President Vance be discussing that matter in suitably diplomatic language?

So, the US appears to be encouraging an uprising by Iran's Kurds, and Azerbaijan is making nice with Israel and the USA - both allied with each other against Iran - in the face of Iranian terrorism and suppression of its large Azeri population.  If both subsets of Iran's people were to rise up and support each other, probably - almost certainly - with military support from the USA and Israel, what would this mean to Iran?  It would become a three-sided onslaught against that nation.  Could the current regime there survive that?

I'm speculating, of course:  but if one looks at the news articles and commentary above, and reads between the lines, and puts two and two together, the picture that emerges is one that should make the Iranian government very worried indeed.  At least, that's the way I see it.

Peter

A very useful cost-saver that works for everyone

 

For all the doom-and-gloom prophecies about what artificial intelligence (AI) will do to the job market and the business sector, AI does have some very useful applications for the average American.  Here's one.

Last summer, a man’s brother-in-law suffered a fatal heart attack. The hospital bill for four hours of emergency care: $195,628.

The man’s sister-in-law was ready to pay it. He asked her to wait. He requested an itemized bill with CPT codes, the universal billing codes hospitals use, and fed the whole thing into Claude, an AI chatbot.

Within minutes, Claude found duplicate charges, services billed as "inpatient" even though the patient was never admitted, supply costs inflated by 500% to 2,300% above Medicare rates and charges for procedures that never happened. He cross-checked with ChatGPT. Both AIs agreed. He wrote a six-page letter citing every violation by name.

The hospital dropped the bill to $33,000. An 83% reduction. Zero medical training. A $20 app.

There's more at the link.  Highly recommended reading for anyone expecting or receiving big medical bills.

I've used this myself over the past year or so.  As regular readers will know, I've been dealing with multiple medical issues for some time, including the removal of a kidney and forthcoming major spinal surgery for which extensive (and intensive) preliminary examinations and tests have been required.  I've had to spend over $30,000 in doing so.  However, once I started analyzing what I was being charged by using online AI tools, I was able to secure some dramatic reductions in the billing.  I reckon I've saved five figures worth of money already, and expect to save a lot more by doing the same thing in future.

I recommend that any reader expecting (or paying) large medical bills should read the whole article referenced above, then try its recommendations for yourself.  You may be very pleasantly surprised by how much you save.

Peter

Very useful information on long-term emergency food storage

 

Commander Zero, whom we've met in these pages on several occasions, recently wrote an article asking his readers for feedback on cold weather food storage.  His exact question was:  "If you were going to store foods in a location that was going to be subject to freeze/thaw cycles, what foods would be best choices?"

Many of his readers responded - 44 of them, as I write these words.  They've provided a great deal of information that's useful for anyone considering food storage, even if not in a cold-weather environment.  I highly recommend clicking over to his place to read his question and explanation, and their responses.

Peter

A potential terrorist threat from Iran

 

I'm sure that by now, most of the readers of this blog are aware that Iran has been sending coded signals to unknown persons.

Iran sent out a possible “operational trigger” to activate “sleeper assets” abroad after the war with America and Israel began, according to an encrypted message intercepted by the US.

The coded signal was sent out following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, with the message appearing to hold instructions for “covert operatives or sleeper assets,” ABC News reported, citing a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies.

The message could “be intended to activate or provide instructions to prepositioned sleeper assets operating outside the originating country,” the alert warned.

. . .

“If ever there’s going to be a Hezbollah cell or a Hamas cell act in the United States in a violent way, it’s now,” Chris Swecker, a former assistant FBI director, told Fox News after the war began.

There's more at the link.

Anybody with any knowledge of international terrorism has been aware of the security risk posed by allowing millions of illegal aliens to cross our borders during the previous administration, with minimal or no security and background checks.  I shall be highly surprised if several hundred - possibly several thousand - terrorists and their supporters did not take advantage of that opportunity.  It was a gilt-edged invitation to set up terrorist, espionage and sabotage cells within the US in a virtually untraceable, unidentifiable fashion, and I'm sure our enemies did precisely that.  Individual terrorists would have done likewise.

We don't know how many such cells or individuals did that, but we've already seen examples of illegal aliens committing such crimes.  I would expect increased acts of terrorism in the short term, and possibly one or two attempts to commit some really big atrocity such as the World Trade Center attacks of 2001.  I'm sure law enforcement and security agencies and staff have already been briefed about that, and are on a higher state of alert to spot and prevent them.  However, most individual Americans are not security-conscious at all, and most are not armed and ready to defend themselves and others.  That would apply particularly to "blue" states, where anti-gun and anti-self-defense messages dominate, but it's not restricted to them.  Even here in Texas, generally regarded as a very pro-Second-Amendment state, there are urban pockets where liberal/progressive ideas and policies dominate.  (Plano, I'm looking at you.)

I can only suggest that readers arm themselves to the extent legally possible, and be prepared to defend themselves and their loved ones if necessary.  I'd also suggest remembering and applying John Farnam's sage advice:

The best way to handle any potentially injurious encounter is: Don’t be there. Arrange to be somewhere else. Don’t go to stupid places. Don’t associate with stupid people. Don’t do stupid things.

Sometimes we can't avoid having to be in or near such places or people.  If so, plan to get out of there as quickly as possible, and keep your head on a swivel while you're there.  Forewarned is forearmed.

Peter

EDITED TO ADD:  It's started, at least among sympathizers.  See this link for more.

Is the AI threat to jobs also a threat to pensions, IRA's and 401(k)'s?

 

Last week we looked at how artificial intelligence (AI) was affecting the job market.  I've been trying to read more widely on the subject, in an effort to understand its implications for all of us over the next few years.  Jonathan Turley, well-known lawyer and legal scholar, offers these thoughts.

We are looking at one of the greatest job losses in history.

In a free-market system, such technological changes tend to offset losses with new jobs in emerging industries. And there will be such growth with the AI and robotic revolutions. But it is also likely that we are looking at a static class of unemployed and practically unemployable citizens as this new revolution unfolds.

. . .

The impact of AI is not confined to factory workers and truck drivers.

The danger is that politicians will react predictably and try to subsidize jobs that are no longer viable and industries that are being dramatically downsized. At the same time, they are likely to expand model programs in Democratic cities for universal basic or guaranteed income.

Democrats have moved forward with more than 60 bills creating such programs, and this week, Cook County, Ill. (the second-largest county in the U.S.) made permanent the universal basic income program it had originally launched with federal COVID-19 relief funds.

The problem is the creation of what I call a “kept citizenship” in a republic designed for people who are economically and politically independent from the government. That system is seriously undermined by a large percentage of citizens living off the government dole.

The solution cannot be an “arts-and-crafts” population kept entertained by government programs to learn glassblowing and pottery-making. A different type of citizen would emerge that is unlikely to be sufficiently free of the government to counter its excesses or failures.

. . .

All governments will face this existential crisis in the 21st Century. It will create growing instability globally. Although AI and robotics will make goods cheaper and more widely available, they are also likely to have a dramatic effect on populations. For example, as production costs drop with the new technology, there will be less advantage to moving factories to other countries with cheaper labor forces, such as China and Mexico.

Companies may choose to build near consumer markets to save on transportation costs while utilizing higher-skilled worker populations to maintain robotic and AI systems. That could produce massive unemployment in certain countries with low-educated, low-income populations. That in turn could destabilize governments and increase the chances of war in countries with large populations of unemployed young men.

There's more at the link.  Recommended reading.

Mr. Turley outlines a very real constitutional issue for the United States.  Our federal government is specifically restricted by the constitution in what, and how much, it can do - even if much of those provisions are today observed more in the breach than in the observance.  Nevertheless, I think it's a valid argument that our system of government, and how we vote for it, are designed for citizens who are not dependent on that government.  They are able to vote as free men and women because they are not dependents.  The moment they cease being free - the moment they become financially dependent on the same government they're helping to elect - the greater becomes the danger that they will vote for their own financial advantage, rather than the good of the country.  As the Roman poet Juvenal satirically pointed out almost two millennia ago, people will vote for "bread and circuses" rather than what their country needs to remain viable.  The fall of Rome not too long afterwards tends to bear out his point.

So . . . if AI leads to increased unemployment (as appears likely at present), what will the newly unemployed do?  Can they, on their own initiative, figure out new ways to make a living and rebuild their society?  Or will they listen to the siren song of politicians who promise them all sorts of freebies and benefits in return for their vote?  (For that matter, any politician who promises to set up government programs to do the hard work for people, so that they don't have to think and work for themselves, is almost guaranteed electoral success.  See the universal basic income (UBI) scheme being pioneered by Chicago, and look for something similar in New York and other "blue" cities.)

The biggest threat posed by AI job replacement is one that Mr. Turley has not mentioned at all.  It's simply this:  if government is to provide a basic guaranteed income to every citizen, it can argue that private pension schemes, IRA's and 401(k)'s are now obsolete and unnecessary.  After all, if the state will provide our needs, why do we need to make provision for them ourselves?  That leads directly to the next and larger problem:  what if the state decides it can confiscate or "nationalize" our pensions, because with UBI we no longer need them?  There are many trillions of dollars saved by Americans in such pension systems, and a left-wing government will be frothing at the mouth over the temptation to seize them all.  It would wipe out a huge chunk of our national deficit (at least until such governments spend it all again!), and can be "sold" to the underfunded portion of the electorate as a "tax on the rich" who want to "hold on to money they don't need any more".  The massive population of "blue" cities and states can be expected to vote for it en masse, overwhelming the more conservative vote of those who've worked for their future income and want to keep it for themselves.

That will, in turn, beget a whole new series of arguments and confrontations over how much UBI should be, and whether "richer" people whose private pension funds were "nationalized" are entitled to a higher UBI payment as compensation, and a whole range of related issues.  What if housing were folded into the UBI arrangement, so that anyone receiving UBI was also guaranteed a place to live?  What quality of place?  In what sort of suburb?  Will everyone be forced into Cabrini-Green style housing, or will there be any freedom of choice?

I have no idea what may emerge from the current state of affairs, but I can foresee far more problems for society than are presently being discussed.  In days past, laissez-faire economists used to claim that "What's good for the banks is good for the country".  Well, AI may be good for business, but it may very well be "double-plus-ungood" for our jobs and for our society.  Right now, we just don't know . . . and that uncertainty is dangerous in itself.

Your thoughts, dear readers?

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 302

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

Today let's enjoy a duo who've delighted thousands with their instrumental crossover guitar pieces.  I'm speaking of Rodrigo y Gabriela, who started performing in the early 1990's and have never looked back.  I've picked a couple of old favorites, plus an extended session with Metallica's bass player Robert Trujillo.

First, here's "Hanuman".

Next, we have "Tamacun".

Finally, from Colorado's Red Rocks Amphitheater in 2014, they're joined by Robert Trujillo for an extended jam session.

Sounds like a lot of fun was had by all concerned.  You'll find lots more music from Rodrigo y Gabriela on YouTube.

Peter

Stand by for the next Shifta War...

 

I note that the Kenya-Somalia border is to be reopened.

Kenya's border with Somalia will re-open in April almost 15 years after it shut because of attacks by Islamist militant group al-Shabab, President William Ruto has announced.

Based in Somalia, the group has masterminded a series of deadly assaults in Kenya including one on a shopping centre in the capital, Nairobi, killing 67 people in 2013 and one at a university in Garissa two years later killing 148.

The plan has been announced before, in 2023, but further attacks postponed the arrangements.

Ruto said the intention to re-open two crossings follows years of security assessments, adding that there will be a heavy deployment of security forces to ensure the move does not compromise safety.

There's more at the link.

I think this is a terrible idea.  That part of Africa - northern Kenya, eastern and northern Uganda, southern Sudan, Ethiopia, and of course Somalia - has been home to the so-called Shifta bandits for generations (of whom Al Shabab is nothing more or less than a recent reinvention of the wheel, with a religious gloss overlaid on their traditional barbarism).  The current disastrous situation - almost a genocide - in southern Sudan is just the latest atrocity in a region that's been soaked in blood for centuries.  It's family against family, clan against clan, tribe against tribe.  The so-called Shifta War was fought there in the 1960's, and despite "official" peace agreements, has never really stopped.

I spent time in the area many years ago, trying to arrange mission convoys for various church groups, getting food and medical aid to mission stations that desperately needed it.  I think my convoys were the only ones that usually got through, because I made sure to hire the meanest, most vicious Shifta bandits I could find as convoy guards against their fellow scumbags.  They would be well paid, but only after the convoy got through and returned safely.  Things got "sporty" on occasion, but my guards usually justified their cost and then some.  Sadly, some mission groups decided that my methods were insufficiently Christian, and had to stop.  (It's odd that most of their aid convoys never made it more than a few miles from their depots before being raided and robbed blind.  They were regarded as "soft targets".  My convoys were not!  I think they felt I was making them look bad to their NGO sponsors.)

There are many other places like this around the world.  Western news media seldom have anything worthwhile to say about them.  They quote government ministers or spokesmen who proclaim that everything is sweetness and light, while on the ground it's "the strong survive" and devil take the hindmost.  Shifta country is one of the worst . . . and now they want to reopen a border between two of the worst-affected parts of Shifta country.

I already know what the result is going to be.

Peter

Ukraine's rapid weapons development example is spreading fast

 

Ukraine has become well-known for its innovations in drone warfare, particularly its ability to design, develop, test and produce new models in a few months.  This means Ukraine can counter Russian innovation very quickly, forcing Russia to keep on developing replacements.  The old weapons cycle of replacing equipment every year or two is now - in some cases quite literally - replacing them every month or two.

It looks like American manufacturers are beginning to get the message.  Case in point:  a prototype of a new lightweight assault drone that was developed and built from scratch in 71 days.

U.S. Defense technology firms Divergent Technologies and Mach Industries unveiled a new autonomous strike aircraft prototype in Los Angeles on February 17.

The aircraft, called Venom, moved from concept to flight readiness in just 71 days, or about 10 weeks. The companies say the rapid timeline shows how digital manufacturing and modular engineering can shrink development cycles that traditionally take years.

The prototype was built as a flight demonstration platform. It is designed to prove that defense hardware can go from initial design to operational prototype much faster using software-driven engineering and advanced production systems.

. . .

Instead of building wings, fuselage sections, skins, and control surfaces as separate multi-part assemblies, it produced large monolithic structures. That reduced overall part counts and simplified production workflows. Fewer parts mean fewer fasteners, fewer failure points, and faster assembly.

According to the companies, this process compresses production timelines while maintaining structural integrity. The goal is to create aerospace-grade hardware at a pace closer to software development cycles.

There's more at the link.

This gets even more interesting when we recall that over the past few years, the US military has developed containerized additive manufacturing (so-called "3D printing") facilities that can be deployed along with military units, including infantry or armor brigades, naval ships, etc.  Furthermore, with modern high-bandwidth satellite communications facilities, detailed design and manufacturing blueprints and instructions can be distributed from the manufacturer to those field units, built and tested under operational conditions, and feedback and suggested improvements sent back to the manufacturer, in literally hours or days.  The advent of modern AI systems means that the process can be sped up by an unknown, but undoubtedly significant factor, meaning that the "loop" of design-build-test-evaluate-redesign can be drastically shortened.  Given an adequate basic design, the ten-week process described above might be reduced to no more than two or three weeks.  One side can have a counter to a new enemy technique or weapon almost before the latter has been fully deployed.

We're only at the start of this revolutionizing of at least some military development and manufacturing processes.  It's going to become much more widespread, very quickly - and in the process it will solve a number of problems that have plagued armed forces for literally centuries.  Want an example?  Try the under-development Red Wolf cruise missile, small enough to be fired from Marine Corps helicopters and modified agricultural aircraft, enabling those platforms to reach out several hundred miles with pinpoint accuracy.  Variations on that theme are being developed right now using similar technology, and should cost considerably less than currently-deployed equivalents.

Who knows where this will end up?

Peter

It was meant to be! (Errr... sort of...)

 

For all the fans of predestination out there.  Click the image to be taken to a larger version at the 'Pearls Before Swine' Web page.

So much for AI inspiration!

Peter

Things that absolutely should not exist, Part XVIII

 

How many of you have been to, or know the culture of, the Philippines or Cambodia?

How many of you have sampled the (in)famous balut?

If you have, you'll know why this image (courtesy of the blogger at Come And Make It) led to an instant attack of visual indigestion . . .

I can't think of anything more calculated to utterly destroy Peeps' market share!

Peter

(P.S.:  My wife's response was "Not just no, but HELL, NO!!!")

If you haven't been following the job market...

 

... you might not have noticed that reality is catching up to prediction rather faster than we might want to believe.

A couple of weeks ago I cited Matt Shumer's blog article about the current state of artificial intelligence (AI).  His article went viral, and has been quoted in many mainstream news media outlets.  Here are a couple of excerpts, followed by real-world examples of how his predictions are already happening in the corporate world.

I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. I describe what I want built, in plain English, and it just... appears. Not a rough draft I need to fix. The finished thing. I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed. A couple of months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding it, making edits. Now I just describe the outcome and leave.

. . .

The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from "helpful tool" to "does my job better than I do", is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I've seen in just the last couple of months, I think "less" is more likely.

. . .

Amodei has said that AI models "substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks" are on track for 2026 or 2027.

Let that land for a second. If AI is smarter than most PhDs, do you really think it can't do most office jobs?

Think about what that means for your work.

How does this translate to the real world, right now?  Go read this article:

‘It’s going to be painful for a lot of people’:

Software engineers could go extinct this year,

says Claude Code creator

Want another one?

Jack Dorsey cuts nearly half of Block

workforce amid major AI overhaul

That last one's a doozy.  Dorsey is cutting almost half of his company's work force, because he no longer needs them to do the work they used to do.  AI is replacing them.

[Dorsey] said in his note that the job cuts are "one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation."

. . .

Dorsey said that the "intelligence tools we're creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly."

There's more at the link.

Block's layoffs affect every department and every kind of work within the organization.  They're not confined to IT workers, computer specialists and the like.  From secretarial to marketing to management to product development, all jobs are on the line.

What does this mean for your job?  For your kids' education and preparation for the workforce?  We'd better all be paying attention . . . and preparing Plans B, C and D for personal development if we want to be employed in the future.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #1,128

 

Today's award goes to police and tax authorities in South Korea for an epic blunder.

Soon after South Korean police posted a press release boasting about seizing $5.6 million worth of cryptocurrency from 124 wealthy tax evaders, cops realized that they had mistakenly posted images that made it possible for a thief to quickly steal most of the seized assets.

. . .

Clearly legible in the photo, the note contained a complete mnemonic recovery phrase that anyone can use as a master key to move assets off the cold wallet to a new wallet without any additional PIN or permissions required.

. . .

It’s possible that whoever took the cryptocurrency just seized on an opportunity after seeing the cops’ failure to redact the images while scrolling through the National Tax Service’s press releases at dawn. It’s also possible that bad actors are closely monitoring South Korean police cryptocurrency announcements, following what The Block reported was “a series of crypto custody lapses.”

There's more at the link.

OK, I have to admit, that's a special kind of stupid.  Boasting about seizing over $5M from a felon - then posting clues enough to allow another criminal to steal what the cops had just recovered?  Why do I never have the luck to come across photographs like that when I need them?

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 301

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

This is so bizarre, so utterly awful, that I could hardly believe it's labeled "music" . . . but it is.  According to Wikipedia, the Estonian group Winny Puhh is a "metal/punk band formed in 1993".  The term "band" may be optimistic.

My attention was drawn to them by a reader who sent me the link to a 2014 article in Fashionista magazine.  I quote:

For those of you who haven't had the great fortune of being in Europe during the Eurovision, allow me to explain. Eurovision is an international, televised song contest celebrating unity between countries and bad taste. The winning country gets to host the contest the following year. It's ripe with generally terrible music, head scratching choreography, and some incredible British voiceover commentary. People throw Eurovision parties and consume lots and lots of alcohol. Witnessing the Eurovision is like watching the birth of 10,000 glorious GIFs. You have to see it to believe it.

Sadly, the Estonian heavy metal band Winny Puhh (which, yep, translates to 'Winnie the Pooh") didn't quite make it past qualifying rounds for the 2013 Eurovision finals that took place in Sweden this past May--perhaps Estonia wasn't too keen on being represented to the rest of Europe and beyond by men who sometimes glue Wookie fur all over their faces and hang upside-down from the ceiling while wearing wrestling gear.

But master of cool Rick Owens saw past all that. He had a vision--as designers are wont to have. He reached his mighty hand down into the deep, dark depths of the Internet and rescued Winny Puhh from certain Eurovision-reject-obscurity. He plopped them down on his spring 2014 menswear show's runway this morning in Paris and what happened next, according to UK fashion writer Charlie Porter, was "HEAVEN." The rockers stood up, they sat down, they laid down, and then eventually were pulled up by their ankles towards the ceiling--all while playing some melodic tune destined to never see the light of Eurovision GIF glory. But no matter: Twitter went cray. Vine went cray. And Instagram video had a small seizure.

Aaaaaand . . . here's their performance from the 2013 Eurovision trials.  Brace yourselves.  (And turn down the volume.)

If that's music, I'm . . . oh, never mind.  At any rate, there's your Sunday Morning Cacophony!

Peter

I'm sorry, but this kicked over my giggle-box

 

CederQ, who blogs with Phil over at his place, put up a meme this morning.  I can't reproduce it here, because it's definitely Not Safe For Work and not family-friendly:  here's the link, if you don't mind the risk.  Even so, I had to laugh out loud at the caption.  It reads, on the top line:

SAYS SHE STRIPS TO FEED HER KIDS

On the bottom line:

GETS MAD WHEN YOU THROW CANNED GOODS AT HER

The captions, combined with the NSFW image, had me laughing out loud.

Seriously, though, I can't tell you how many times, as a pastor and a private individual, I've been asked for help by someone.  Almost always, their need is stated to be something physical, like food, a bus ticket, or whatever.  However, when I offer to buy them the thing(s) they need, rather than give them money, they get upset with me.  It's quite clear they want the money for other things, and I'm the bad guy for "giving them a hard time" by havering about it.

I will admit, I've never tried to throw canned goods at strippers (or anything else, for that matter).  I've never even been to a strip show or club.  Nevertheless, I'm curious about the ballistics.  What size can?  What contents?  How hard should it be thrown?  Answers in Comments, please - but keep it clean!

Peter

The UPS air disaster as experienced on the ground

 

Midwest Safety has released a 40-minute video compilation of bodycam footage from emergency responders who rushed to the scene of the UPS air crash in Louisville in November last year.  It's harrowing footage, showing the chaos as responders tried to come to grips with a situation far larger and far worse than they could have envisaged.  I highly recommend watching it to learn what happened, figure out how it could have been done better, and to ask yourself, "What would I do in that situation?"

A tip o' the hat to Zendo Deb at 357 Magnum for posting the video.

Having been involved with civil defense and disaster response on two continents over many years, I can promise you:  that Louisville crash is the stuff nightmares are made of for any and all emergency responders.  It's going to be a case study for years, probably decades to come.

May almighty God have mercy on the souls of all who died there.

Peter

It's no wonder people can't afford to buy a home

 

This article applies to California, where the problem is particularly bad, but it's evident in other states too.

Glenn and Lorraine Crawford paid about $500 a month to insure their home in Agoura Hills northwest of Los Angeles when they bought it in 2012.

The Crawfords say they have little alternative but to pay the bill that arrived last month, which, at more than $44,000 a year, is almost as much as their mortgage bill. The only other insurer willing to cover their home, Lloyd’s of London, quoted them $80,000 a year.

More than a year after infernos tore through Los Angeles County, millions of Californians like the Crawfords are suffering through a home-insurance crisis that has rolled on for years with eye-watering rate increases, canceled policies and rejected claims.

Two of the biggest insurers, State Farm and Allstate, aren’t selling to new customers in the state, despite getting double-digit rate increases approved for their existing policyholders. A third, Farmers Insurance, has committed to cover more homes in fire-prone areas, but only a fraction compared with the drop in its overall number of policies since the crisis began.

The insurance dysfunction has spread to California’s housing market, the country’s biggest and most expensive, with nearly one-in-five real-estate agents reporting a canceled sale last year because of clients unable to find affordable insurance, according to a survey by the trade body California Association of Realtors.

There's more at the link (may be paywalled).

Florida looks like another problem state for insurance.

Slake Counts has made a frightening decision. After the price of his homeowners insurance skyrocketed, the Tampa, Florida, resident has chosen not to renew his policy.

Now, he’s pondering his future, which may include selling his home and leaving the state.

“There may be other options for me at this time in my life that don’t necessitate me continuing to live in Florida or Tampa,” Counts told Tampa Bay 28 ... “I’m not the only one in this boat.”

He might be right. According to Bankrate, Florida is the third-most expensive state for homeowners insurance in the U.S. Premiums in the Sunshine State average out to $5,828 per year ($486 per month) for a $300,000 home, while the national average is $2,424 ($202 per month), as of November. Counts showed Tampa Bay 28 the amount of his 2026 renewal increased to $14,523.

Factors that have made home insurance increasingly unaffordable for many Americans include higher home prices, the cost of building materials and the impacts of climate change — especially in disaster-prone areas like Florida.

It’s no wonder that some insurers are pulling out of certain states, and why some consumers are taking the risk of forgoing coverage. But experts emphasize the risks to those who “go bare” can outweigh the benefits.

Again, more at the link.

Those are scary, scary numbers.  We bought our home in north Texas ten years ago, paying a relatively low price for a modest 3-bedroom home, and putting down a 20% deposit to keep mortgage payments affordable.  Even so, a quick check reveals we're now paying as much per month to insure our home as we are on the mortgage.  The premium has increased fairly sharply over the past two to three years, and seems likely to go up by more than 10% this year - perhaps double that, thanks to weather-related disasters and losses elsewhere in the state.

Most of us can't claim our insurance costs against taxes, and that's part of the problem.  When a big conglomerate such as Blackrock buys up thousands of houses to rent them out, it can claim their insurance premiums as a business expense against its taxes, making them that much more affordable.  On top of that, it can increase its rental charges to cover what it actually pays.  Given the very large discounts such a company can squeeze out of an insurance company that wants its business - an insurance company that it may partially or wholly own, at that - it may be paying only a small percentage of the retail or consumer cost of insuring its houses.  Is it any wonder that so many consumers find that rental costs in some areas are actually less than the cost to buy a home?

How have you found your home insurance costs and premiums lately, dear readers?  Please let us know in Comments.

Peter

The danger of unrealized tax gain

 

Fellow blogger Mr. Garabaldi, writing at My Daily Kona, warns of the real dangers of so-called "unrealized tax gains".  We're seeing this pop up in almost every progressive, left-wing-oriented government and political party.  They want to tax you on any gain in value of any property you own, whether or not you've cashed in that value by selling it.

You buy a Pokémon card for $50.

Someone offers you $500 for it. You say no. You love that card. You're keeping it.

The government says: "Cool, but that card is worth $500 now. You owe us $100 in taxes."

You: "…I didn't sell it."

Government: "Don't care. Pay up."

You don't have $100 lying around. So you're forced to sell the card you love just to pay a tax on money you never received.

Next month? That card drops back to $50.

Your card is gone. Your money is gone. And the government shrugs.

That's a wealth tax on unrealized gains. They don't pay you back the tax...

There's more at the link, including more examples.  Recommended reading.

What this is, of course, is an all-out drive to reduce or even eliminate private property, by forcing us to rent what we use, or rely on government to provide it, because it's no longer affordable to buy it.  It's a growing movement, particularly in Europe, but also in progressive-left states in the USA like California.  Essentially, it embodies the World Economic Forum's oft-repeated mantra that "You'll own nothing and be happy".  Personally, I can't think of many things that would make me more unhappy than that!

Peter

A reminder to those of us...

 

... who may not clean our ears as thoroughly or as often as might be necessary.  Click the image to be taken to a larger version of the cartoon at its Web page.

How do you know if your ears aren't clean enough?

1. The farmer next door offers to run his harvester through them.
2. Your spouse offers you shampoo to use on them.
3. Every time you shake your head, the hairs in your ear shiver and scare the bats into flight.

Let's hear your own contributions in Comments!

Peter

A long overdue update to legacy computer software?

 

Way back when, in the 1970's and 1980's, I programmed computers in COBOL (among other languages).  COBOL, or Common Business Oriented Language, ruled the commercial computing world back then, with millions upon millions of lines of code written every year.  Many of the older, so-called "legacy" systems that are the computing backbone of large businesses were written back then, and have been maintained and updated (with greater and greater difficulty) ever since.

I'll give you a brief example.  In the early 1980's I wrote the so-called "price book" program for a big oil company in South Africa.  This program calculated the current price for every single product they sold - something like 4,000 different items, at the time.  I wanted to make it modular, with a separate program for every major group of products, to simplify maintenance and reduce the amount of time it would take to update the thing.  I was told that would not be acceptable:  I had to write a single monolithic program, calling in sub-programs and sub-routines whenever needed for specific product groups.  I did as instructed, and produced a program with several thousand lines of code.  I had to file detailed work flow diagrams for each major product section, showing which routines were called from outside and which of those routines served multiple product sections, so that a modification to one of the latter might affect one or more of the others (all of which cross-references had to be tested after every modification).  I warned at the time that this might become a maintenance nightmare, due to its sheer size and the number of modifications and updates that might be required.  I was told to shut up and get on with the job.  I obeyed orders.

When last I checked, some years ago, that price book program had ballooned in size to well over double the original length, and a team of three programmers were kept busy doing nothing but maintenance updates.  So many of the latter came in that one programmer would be finalizing an update and putting it into production, another would be midway through implementing another, and a third programmer would be picking an urgent change order out of the incoming pile to start yet another update.  The various additions, edits, alterations and mutations had added so many odd lines and sections to the coding that my original flow charts were almost unusable.

That's COBOL for you.  It was a very strong, stable business computing language, but it was clunky and maintenance-intensive.  Trouble is, very few people use COBOL today.  The old farts like myself who remember it are mostly retired and dying off, and the youngsters today want to use the "cool stuff" like C++ and other fancy tools.  I'm informed that a skilled, experienced COBOL programmer can almost write his own ticket in data processing today, just to keep the legacy systems running.  I know one formerly retired COBOL senior programmer who was tempted back to work with a package of well over $150K per year.  He smiles all the way to the bank.

That being the case, Anthropic claims to have developed an AI system that can update legacy COBOL systems, convert them into modern coding languages, and replace the old systems with the new.  This means it will have to read and understand COBOL (not always an easy task with rambling, much-modified legacy coding), break it down into more understandable chunks, rewrite each chunk in modern computer languages, test them for accuracy, produce easy-to-understand flow charts or other technical documentation for each of them, and gradually replace all that clunky stuff with modern software.

That ability is very long overdue.  If it works (and I'll want to see lots of evidence of that before trusting its output), mainframe computer manufacturers such as IBM may be drastically affected, because modern codes and languages can run efficiently on much smaller computers.  Modern computer hardware is being optimized for such use:  see heterogeneous computing for more information.  The Apple computer with its M-series chip that I'm using to write this article is just one example.

If you'd told me all those years ago that the COBOL code I was writing would still be in production use over half a century later, I'd have laughed at you.  Guess COBOL and corporate inertia are having the last laugh . . .

Peter

How many infractions? Let me count the ways...

 

From Bill Melugin on X:

DHS announces the ICE arrest of a Liberian illegal alien who they say was working as a Minnesota corrections officer while also being AWOL from the PA National Guard, all while masquerading as a U.S. citizen despite having no legal status in the U.S.

There's more at the link.

I'm tempted to call it American enterprise at its finest, except that there's nothing American about him.  I'd love to follow his paper trails in those various organizations, to see precisely how they all came to let him slip through the cracks.

Peter

A very sad morning, and a fond farewell

 

Regular readers will know of Ashbutt, our farm kitten that we adopted back in 2016.

He would have celebrated his tenth birthday in the second half of this year . . . but sadly, that won't happen any more.

We have a couple staying with us, along with their two cats, which we've segregated in a room behind a closed door, because Ashbutt is very territorial and possessive.  Last night, it got much worse than that.  He was trying to open the door to the guest cats' room, yowling loudly, and behaving very aggressively when we tried to stop him.  Finally, when one of our guests came out of the spare bedroom too close to him for his comfort, he must have been startled, because he attacked her, biting and clawing, drawing blood.  When I ran over and tried to shoo him away from her and the closed door, he tried to attack me!  He's never behaved that way to us before, but once was more than enough.  (Last weekend we had a family staying with us, including an eighteen-month-old infant.  We segregated our cats to avoid issues with small children, but even so, what if Ashbutt had got out?  The thought of what a big, aggressive cat could do to a toddler is just too scary for words . . . )

With my wife's help, Ashbutt was shut in the garage for the night.  She and I talked about it, but it was obvious what had to be done.  We simply can't risk the injuries he might inflict on our next guest, or even on us, if this sudden violent, aggressive streak continues.  With great sorrow, I took him to the vet this morning and arranged for euthanasia.  His body will be sent for rabies testing (which is apparently a legal requirement in cases like this), and his ashes will then be returned to us.

I absolutely hated having to say goodbye to Ashbutt.  He's always been a "daddy's boy", as opposed to our older cat, Kili, who's definitely my wife's cat.  He would jump on my lap at every opportunity and snuggle for a while.  That won't happen any more, and I know I'll miss him very much . . . but . . . there's the "but" for you.  When an animal turns aggressive towards you, you absolutely cannot take the risk that he'll do the same towards others.  The injury aspect is only part of the problem:  there are legal exposures involved when it comes to damages, reimbursement, etc.  Tolerating that sort of behavior could cost a whole lot of money down the road.  (Our current guests have been very gracious in assuring us they understand, so that won't be a problem in this case;  but that doesn't prevent possible future recurrences.)

Goodbye, Ashbutt.  We'll miss you very much.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 300

 

When I started this weekly collection, I never thought it would last this long - the equivalent of 6 years.  However, readers keep showing up for it, and it attracts the biggest readership of all my weekly blog articles.  I'm glad you like it!

Sadly, one of the problems with keeping this column going is the increasing scarcity of memes that are genuinely amusing, rather than centered around politics or the latest crisis du jour.  Sometimes I can find more than a dozen memes in a week, but that's hard to do in a humorless world.  I'll do my best to find new sources, and keep them coming.

__________

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

As a child, I had several favorites among my parents' long-playing records, including two albums with martial songs by the Merrill Staton Choir (who also produced many other albums).  I believe they were active in the post-war years up until the 1960's, but I haven't been able to find out any biographical details.  I was reminded of those old memories by a couple of chance encounters while browsing the Web, and I thought I'd share them with any other old fogeys veterans who might remember them too.

First, from the album "Sound Off!", here's a medley:  "This Is The Army, Mr. Jones", "Comin' In On A Wing And A Prayer", and "Praise The Lord And Pass The Ammunition".

Next, from the album "Up Anchor!", here's a favorite from the Civil War, "Shenandoah".

And finally, from the same album, another medley:  a World War II ballad about "Torpedo Jim", followed by "Your Boy Is On The Coal Pile Now".

Those brought back many memories of my childhood.  I reckon I wore out those long-playing records until they were more scratch than song!  I wish someone would bring out the Merrill Staton Choir's albums in digital form.  I'd buy them all.

Peter