I'm obliged to Francis Turner for providing a link to an article titled "The Global System Rupture". It's a very long article, far too long to summarize here; to get the full impact, you'll have to click over to it and read it for yourself (which I do recommend). I don't necessarily agree with all the author's points, but I don't think her overall thesis is far wrong. Let me offer these paragraphs to whet your appetite.
We are not approaching a regional crisis that will be managed and absorbed. We are approaching a global system rupture, driven by cascading effects across every socio-economic network simultaneously: energy, food, water, finance, trade, governance, and security. And while the United States, China, and Russia each occupy a short-term winning position in this rupture, all three are generating the very conditions that could pull the entire system into an abyss from which none of them emerges structurally intact. The path away from that abyss requires something that none of them is currently willing to do alone. It requires coordination between the two rival blocs. And it requires it now.
. . .
The United States, China, and Russia are each winning in the short term. The US has demonstrably degraded Iran’s military infrastructure, eliminated its nuclear programme, and established a new precedent of deterrence in the region. Russia is extracting elevated energy revenues, geopolitical leverage on Ukraine, and a sanctions waiver. China is consolidating yuan settlement architecture, absorbing discounted Iranian crude, and widening its strategic position in the Pacific while the US is pinned in the Gulf. All three actors have short-term incentives that are being satisfied.
And all three are generating the conditions for a collapse that will devour those short-term gains.
Because what is accumulating in the background of each of those winning positions is the cascade: 8 mbpd of daily scarcity compounding into a fertiliser shock, a food security crisis across 15 to 20 vulnerable economies, a financial contagion running through sovereign debt and emerging market currencies, a desalination doctrine that threatens the civilisational baseline of the Arabian Peninsula, and a wave of political turmoil that will arrive on a 6 to 12-month lag and cannot be recalled once it begins. No actor wins in that world. Not even the actors who think they are winning now.
. . .
And [then] the question shifts from how to prevent the rupture to what can be reconstructed from the wreckage of a global system that three great powers allowed to break because none of them was willing to accept that their short-term winning position was being purchased at the cost of the system that makes winning meaningful.
There's much more at the link.
That's food for thought all right . . . possibly food for nightmares, if no progress is made. The problem is, it's almost impossible to find anyone in Iran with whom to negotiate meaningfully. Iran's fundamentalist Twelver leaders are more than willing to bring down the entire world with them, if they have to. Some of them even believe that if they do, the Twelfth Imam will return - literally, be forced to return - to rule the nations and impose Shi'ite Islam upon them. They are not acting logically or rationally, but theologically and ideologically. We cannot find common ground with such people for a solution. That's the fly in the above article's ointment. I can see the author's opinions, and even agree with many of them - but if there is no rational discussion possible, how can her gloomy predictions be avoided?
If you know the answer to that conundrum, you're probably a better person than I . . . not to mention all the politicians and leaders on all sides that kicked the Iran can down the road until there was nowhere left for it to go!
Peter
17 comments:
Humans are terrible at seeing the LONG term ramifications of what they do. With rare exceptions always have been. This is no different.
Not seeing it. I have seen these comments thrown up elsewhere lately as if there was a bolt that held the world together that suddenly dropped out. As I think about it, it might be time for the shock of '48 or another Concert of Europe.
Not that Israel isn't killing off everyone that shows up at the diplomatic table IS A PROBLEM eh?
Not that Zionism has their version of heroic end time King that lifts up Israel and all that.
Not that Crusader Pete our War Department Leader hasn't espoused "lighting the signal fire for the return of Jesus ".
Yes,I can post links.
NAH,it's only the Iranians that are end times CRAZY.
God will show up on HIS Time.
Michael the anonymous
About the only thing I know is that it is guaranteed that a sizable portion of Iran's population will hate the US for at least another generation. And not a single nation out there has any reason to trust the United States of America.
Seems a 'tad' overwrought to me... The Iranian 'can' didn't get kicked this time, and suddenly 'everybody' is looking at their hole card and not liking it. Tough...
“Iran Rejects US Diplomatic Push, Expands Strikes on Israel, Gulf States”
https://thelibertydaily.com/iran-rejects-us-diplomatic-push-expands-strikes-israel/
“(The Epoch Times)—Iran’s military on March 25 dismissed the idea of negotiating with the United States to end the war, as Tehran launched fresh missile and drone attacks on Israel and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, signaling no sign of de-escalation of the conflict.”
“Strikes overnight targeted multiple sites in Israel, while Iranian attacks on Gulf energy facilities and Tehran’s continued chokehold on key oil shipping routes signaled no immediate end in sight to the war.”
Jimmy Carter’s forever war with Iran just keeps on going.
Thanks for the link.
As I wrote, I think the key will be whether Iran remains able to hold hostage/charge protection on the Strait of Hormuz. Assuming that grip is broken then the regime will collapse. I think she's too pessimistic and too sure of the issue being a positive for the Chicoms, but it's a good chewy analysis
Here is a good summary of what islam actually teaches. It's a reltively short compare/contrast of Christian vs islamic eschatology. Short version: the moslem end times are a near perfect inversion of the Christian. The author, Joel Richardson is an a Christian end-timer. Our individual views on the apocalypse aren't the point, I doesn't matter if we believe it. They do.
https://answering-islam.org/Authors/JR/Future/index.htm
JWM
So many doomsayers are acting as if the government of Iran is popular with the Iranian people, that is far from the case. They are holding on to power with raw violence and terror
between 10,000 and 50,000 people killed as the result of protests in January of this year, depending on who's numbers you believe
there were reports that after they gunned down the protesters in the streets, they were searching both the local hospitals and door to door to find anyone who was injured to arrest them (and later kill them)
protests and crackdowns like this (although not this many people killed) happen there every few years.
This is also not a society built on tribes and clans (like Afghanistan and Iraq)
They aren't in as good shape as Venezuela to recover (50 years of being stomped on rather than just 20-30 years) but they are not a lost cause.
Why should Iran negotiate? They were attacked by Israel and the U.S., both of whom have proven themselves to be agreement incapable (i.e. they will not honor any promises they make). Neither Israel nor the U.S. can defeat Iran, a string country of 90 million in a mountainous terrain. Americans do not support the war now; they will support it even less when we send in troops. We couldn’t win in Afghanistan in 20 years and trillions in cost; we have even less chance of success in Iran. Iran has no need to make concessions. The U.S. and Israel have further alienated most countries in the world with this action. Europe too sees that the U.S. wants to destroy then steal European industry by making energy expensive. We should cut bait now. The idea that we need to find someone to negotiate with is silly. We’ve hurt ourselves much more than we’ve hurt Iran. They are in the catbird seat. We can stop hurting ourselves at any time. But our egos (and our war profiteers) don’t want to, so we pretend we’re trying to identify the Iranians who can accept our demands.
Goodness we ought to be WINNING Then.
Odd how more "facts" Iran is falling apart as Israel's interceptors keep running out and the DESTROYED Iranian Missile Launchers keep sending one and two ton warheads in daily.
Meanwhile we get closer to turning Iran into an Afghanistan. Will IDF troops also be landing with our marines and 82nd Airborne? Or are they too busy shooting up Lebanon?
Michael the Anony beat me to it. Hard to negotiate with dead peeps, and Israel seems to kill off every viable 'negotiator.' Meantime, Israel clears out the remaining Catholics from southern Lebanon and intends to 'hold that territory.' Nice to have the US backing them up as they conquer whatever they want, eh?
Boy, the doomsters are out in force today. "Anonymous" sounds like Tokyo Rose. "Give up, GI Joe! We too strong for you!"
People are resilient and endlessly innovative. I think the author of this piece will be surprised at the ingenious workarounds developed to deal with the various issues. "Necessity is the mother of invention" and Westerners, Americans especially, are good at inventing. I have no doubt that there will be increased prices in some areas and shortages here and there. I do not, however, subscribe to the doom and gloom visions of the author. It is not the end of the world.
Governments will do what they do - what should we do?
Peter talks a lot about preparing. What should we do? What are the risks to prepare for? Fuel will get more expensive, so everything will. Fertilizer will become expensive, so food will. Our Gov't has too many regulations - don't expect capacity to be created quickly. What feeder stocks do we import? What strain does this put on our currency? What does China choose to do about Taiwan and how does that effect our computer industry? We've alienated Russia over Ukraine. The Europeans are invaded and can't help themselves. We're invaded and are doing little to help ourselves. 1-2M illegals have left out of 50M (whose numbers to believe?) Too many American politicians do not serve their constituency, witness the SAVE act. Add in all the fraud, still waiting for arrests. Point #1-I doubt anyone will help us, other than our friends and neighbors.
Point #2 - if you wait until its obvious you should have done something you're in deep deep kimchi.
Point #3 - Peter has mentioned prepping for 30 or 90 days. Not enough for a major shock to the food production system. What I don't know is how big a shock this will be or what our Gov't will do.
Our food network relies heavily on transportation and chemicals and is under central control of only a few corporations, ones big enough to influence the Gov't (Witness FDA, etc.) where do you rank in the food competition food chain? Our food cycle is approx 2 years, by which I mean a disruption will take a few months to show but will take at least 2 years to fix. Stockpile now, pay cash, small purchases in different stores with phone left at home. You are only too paranoid or not enough. The later is catastrophic.
Garden. People get maybe 33% of nutrients that are in a plant, our systems are designed for meat. We get 99% of nutrients in Beef Liver. Even a small amount of meat can make a big difference. 50% of greenspace is mowed lawns, otherwise called pasture without animals. Animal care takes time to learn. But, back yard chickens, guinea pigs, rabbits are some possibilities. HOA's could run sheep or goats. Kune Kune pigs are good as well because the graze, not dig. Hogs otherwise are a problem. Cattle need lots of water and space. Smaller animals need security, Livestock guardian dogs or other.
Think ahead or get left behind.
Learning takes time. Conditioning the soil takes time. Gardens are public and can make you a target. There are indoor hydroponics, but now you need reliable power. Food storage. Meat is stored on the hoof or stored using energy. How much propane do you have? Fire wood? Fodder? Mason jars?
OBTW - There are things the food industry could do. RFK Jr has mentioned regenerative grazing. We would have to change our entire food chain to accomodate. It is critical we do it. I practice regenerative grazing. 80% of cattle comes from farms with <20% of head and those farms lose ~$1000 per year. Regenerative grazing is an everyday activity, not something done by people who work a full time job and keep cattle as a family tradition, which the young are rejecting by the way. In many ways our food supply could not be more vulnerable than it is today. Food for thought-pun intended
A (current) Great Power bilateral arrangement? Curiously, and as is not uncommon, SciFi got there first, eg. Jerry Pournelle's US/Russian Co-Dominium and Joss Whedon's US/Chinese amalgam in Firefly.
It seems to me you don’t need a desalination plant if you get nuked. I think this had to happen sooner or later.
It also seems Europe will achieve net zero ahead of schedule with only the wind they have built, just on a smaller scale then they expected.
Guess I will just laugh all the way to my old man grave.
thanks Peter. You mention there is no one in Iran to "negotiate meaningfully" with? LOL .. after backstabbing them in negotiations (twice) and killing their leaders prison gang-style? the US has degenerated so low that it has adopted the Israeli way of war. the US already had a deal with Iran. It was called the JCPOA. was very strict and Iran followed it. 3 years later Trump (2018) ripped it up and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
Now they have us by the balls and are not going to let go until we are so weak and desperate that we will agree to their terms. I don't blame them at all.
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